Image: AEW
The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects that of the author and not of the website.
The Sopranos, long may it reign, had a habit of loading up the penultimate episodes of a season and dealing with the fallout in the finale. Two of the best episodes in the show’s history (“The Knight in White Satin Armor” and “Long Term Parking”) didn’t end their respective seasons, but were powerhouse episodes that stayed with viewers more than two decades later.
Last year’s Full Gear offered something similar. We saw the bloody, gruesome beginning of the Hangman Page/Swerve Strickland saga which kickstarted Swerve’s run at the top of the card. It also saw the start of “Timeless” Toni Storm’s lengthy run with the Women’s title. Both of those characters and stories began ramping up after Full Gear and there are a few candidates for this year:
- Daniel Garcia: It’s well past time for him to make a jump into being a consistent main character.
- Kyle Fletcher: Can he use his match with Will Ospreay as a launching pad to something bigger like Swerve did?
- Orange Cassidy: Does he have a real chance to be the hero that conquers Jon Moxley’s Death Riders or is he keeping the seat warm for the true protagonist in the story, Darby Allin?
Other than this bit of self-created intrigue, this show feels flat. It was done no favors by a tragically weak go-home show on Wednesday. There’s been too much recycling of tired WWE-style tropes and hodgepodge booking decisions lately. AEW does not feel cohesive. Too many of the performers feel like they are performing in isolation. The connective tissue to so much of this is missing. Hopefully, the Continental Classic portends a return to AEW’s bread-and-butter: really, really good professional wrestling. Last year’s tournament was a doozy, and they need this one to be the same.
First, let’s see how things shake out this Saturday. Here’s my previews and predictions for Saturday (8 PM Eastern main card start on PPV):
MJF vs. Roderick Strong
The sooner AEW moves past this “story,” the better. It is a jumbled, unnecessary mess. MJF’s contributions to this consist of pre-tapes shot on a seven-megapixel Logitech camera from 2006. And, in case you forgot, Strong is supposed to be the bad guy in this! Remember The Devil™ storyline from last year? Of course, you do. We all do. We all wish we didn’t. But here MJF is, running down Roddy’s family while he cuts a generic babyface promo. There is nothing here now, and there won’t be anything even if Adam Cole winds up wrestling MJF at Worlds End. All parties are best served to end this and move on toward anything else. At least this should be good between the bells.
Prediction: MJF
Jay White vs. “Hangman” Adam Page
Page is incapable of being boring. Whether it’s his anxiety, a promo about worker’s rights, or his descent into simmering lunacy, he is must-see. Few wrestlers in AEW draw consistent eyeballs, but Page is one of them. He is their most successfully versatile performer. Other wrestlers can switch alignments like he does, but none do it as well. He’s succeeded no matter what he’s been given and should be positioned much higher on the card.
Every show needs a match like this. It plays off of history, has good mic work, and fits both characters. It’s an easy, paint-by-numbers booking. I am higher on White than most, it seems. Perhaps I am disarmed and misled by his accent, but I generally like him. I do wonder what his ceiling is, though. He exudes confidence, cuts promos full of venom and has precise character work, but I can’t help wondering if his fate is to be the guy who comes close without ever actually getting to the top. There’s always going to be someone just a little bit better.
White has had Hangman’s number throughout their careers and will give him another check in the loss column this weekend.
Prediction: White
Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher
Fletcher and his sudden tattoos aren’t there yet, but AEW wants him to get there. They need him to get there. They’re giving him the space and the time to smooth out the edges on regular TV. He’s not anything special on the microphone, but he’s getting better. He’s growing like an actor graduating from bit parts to meatier roles. Each week, the nervous energy turns more toward ease with his oodles of raw athleticism and talent coalescing into something potentially special. Giving the ball to someone this inexperienced is a gamble. With Fletcher, it’s starting to feel less so.
Positioning Ospreay as The Guy on PPVs is another smart decision. This is not someone who should be deployed for filler episodes. He’s modeled his game after Kenny Omega and Kazuchika Okada: two of the best big-match performers of this generation. What makes Omega’s whole Best Bout Machine gimmick work is that not every match is the “Best Bout.” That’s the model Ospreay needs to follow during his peak years. He doesn’t need to give someone the match of their life on a random Wednesday night in February. Kicking out of the Stormbreaker or Hidden Blade should mean something, not moves that take us to commercial. Keep the bullets in the chamber for the brightest lights and biggest stages. That way the matches, and moments, mean more.
As bright as Fletcher’s star might be, Ospreay’s is still brighter. He’s the most over wrestler in the company and he adds to his big show resume with a win.
Prediction: Ospreay
Swerve Strickland vs. Bobby Lashley
Time and again, Strickland has plunged himself into the deep end, daring to test his mettle against the best of his generation. His position as top-tier talent is cemented; an unteachable cocktail of charisma, presentation, and edge. On Saturday, his biggest challenge yet casts quite a shadow.
Hopefully freed from corporate storytelling’s straitjacket, Lashley seems poised to soar, or to steamroll AEW. AEW has the market cornered on mid-sized wrestlers who can fly around the ring. He’s a different type of athletic marvel. What they’re missing, and what’s always been missing, is someone this physically imposing. Few are more imposing than big Bob Lashley. His brute strength and explosiveness combined with Swerve’s puzzle box of unpredictability and penchant for the moment make for a match worth watching. This is a rare occasion where it doesn’t quite matter how we got to our destination, but we sure are happy to be here.
Swerve remains teflon. A loss here won’t hurt him at all and losing to Lashley, combined with his recent losses to Danielson and Page, would introduce some fascinating struggle to a character that has otherwise shined on major shows. A win for Lashley would go a long way to establish The Hurt Syndicate as a serious force in AEW.
Prediction: Lashley
AEW Tag Team Champions Private Party (Isiah Kassidy & Marq Quen) defend against The Outrunners (Truth Magnum & Turbo Floyd), Kings of the Black Throne (Malakai Black & Brody King) and The Acclaimed (Max Caster & Anthony Bowens) in a four-way
How long are we going to continue to do this with The Acclaimed? An act long past its expiration date, constantly bogged down by the anchor of Caster. Bowens deserves so much more than waiting around for a Caster heel turn that no one cares about. Not a soul.
Edgelord gimmicks are less successful in wrestling than they are in real life. They’re even worse when the “edgy” content isn’t even funny. Unfunny, corny, and bad at wrestling is not a three-ingredient dish that anyone, let alone the wrestling audience at large, has an interest in eating. The idea of him in The Hurt Syndicate is a laughable one. There is no quicker way to kill momentum than by adding a dash of “Platinum.”
Fortunately, the other teams in the match are all different types of good. Refreshingly, they have gimmicks that are more than “good wrestlers.” Private Party, House of Black, and The Outrunners are all different types of teams that wrestle different types of matches. Diversity is paramount in wrestling (and in life!) and leads to quality matches which this should be. I’m mostly excited about this one!
Prediction: Private Party retains
AEW TNT Champion Jack Perry defends against Daniel Garcia
We have tried and we have learned all we need to about Perry. There is no failure because something doesn’t work; there is only failure in the absence of effort. Perry could have coasted along as a member of Jurassic Express, equal parts doomed and privileged to be a mid-card, crowd-pleasing act. But in the search for the elusive ceiling — the search for something greater — change was needed. If Perry was going to become an actual pillar of the company, he couldn’t remain static.
The change has not worked. Perry is no more believable as a top guy now than when he started. He is neither top class as a worker, a talker, or in any other way. He’s above average in all three and can play an important but lesser role as long as he wants. But we know what the ceiling is now; a ceiling artificially raised by entrance music.
If I went through my old columns, I’d imagine the phrase ‘now or never’ shows up more than anything else. I’ll continue that overuse here because it is actually now or never with Garcia. The collective heart of AEW cannot take another stop-and-start. It cannot take more stalled momentum. An audience that has been dying to embrace Garcia needs at least some kind of crowning moment to hold on to. I’d argue winning the TNT championship is much less than beating MJF clean on a PPV show, but who am I? I’m just a guy that clickity clacks his days away. Let us love something, one time.
Prediction: Garcia wins the title
AEW International Champion Konosuke Takeshita defends against Ricochet
This is a match, once again, added late in the week and well past bedtime for all East Coast Dads. It is also a match that reflects the evolution in my pro wrestling fandom more than any other. Like a lot of fans, Ring of Honor was my first discovery when I started venturing outside the WWE monolith. I was taken by not only the charming grime, but the different styles of wrestling on the shows.
But nothing opened my eyes more than Pro Wrestling Guerilla. The stacked supershows run out of Reseda immediately captivated me. I looked forward to their show trailers and DVD sales more than anything else, and Ricochet was front and center of that. I had never seen someone be able to show off athleticism like that. I fell for the flips, and off I went.
As I’ve grown, I’m less drawn to the overly choreographed flippy stuff. Now it’s the ones that hit hard that pull my eyes to a screen — that explosive strong style. If you’ve read any of my columns over the past year or so, you know that I think Takeshita is the present and future of pro wrestling. He’s a perfect prospect, and a real litmus test for Ricochet. If he wants to prove he can hang with the best wrestlers in the world, few are better than the current International champion. He can probably hang, but he probably can’t win.
Prediction: Takeshita retains
TBS Champion Mercedes Mone defends against Kris Statlander
The sudden and sad splintering of Statlander from Stokley Hathaway is unfortunate. One day, they were together, aligned against Willow Nightingale in a street fight. The next, they were nothing. They didn’t exist. Vapor. It’s a shame because it was clicking for me. It let Statlander show some of her personality and unique sense of humor. Now she’s back into a generic babyface role which is fine, but like Jack Perry, fine might be the ceiling in that role.
God bless Mone for continuing to do the most at all times. She’s putting in a lot of effort to elevate a program that feels like a TV build rather than one that belongs on a major show. I am confident this will deliver in the ring. Statlander is solid-to-very good whenever she gets a chance, and Mercedes is at her best when going against someone bigger. I have high hopes for the match, and low hopes for a title change.
Prediction: Mone talks
AEW World Champion Jon Moxley defends against Orange Cassidy
Up until a few months ago, it had been a surprisingly forgettable year for Moxley. An empty IWGP championship reign ended with a hollow loss to Tetsuya Naito. Some good enough but forgettable TV matches. But now? He’s as dynamic as he’s ever been. A reinvigorated ronin. The Ace of Everything is in the best shape of his life and fully engaged. Nothing is off-limits for him. No ceiling exists for this version of Moxley. He can be whatever he wants and shape AEW to his will.
This version of Mox is a looming, seemingly unconquerable force of nature — an Anton Chigurh-like presence. This is the creation of the first real “big bad” of AEW. Sure, they’ve had heels (early Jericho, belt collector Omega, MJF) but none felt like this. None of them felt like something that could block out the sun and reshape the company. None felt inevitable. The scariest villains are the ones completely driven by purpose.
As much as I enjoy the Death Riders part of the story — their matches, promos, presence, fashion choices, etc. — the rest is lacking. Outside of Cassidy and Darby Allin, there isn’t much for them to be afraid of. The Dark Order holding the line in the parking lot? Surely not. The rest of The Conglomeration standing up for AEW? Not a needle mover in the bunch. No disrespect to the Rocky Romeros and Dark Orders of the world, but they are not equipped to be the protagonists that can save the company.
If heavy hitters don’t engage in this story, success could be elusive. A caveat: if the rumored plans of a triumphant Young Bucks/Elite return to save the day, the success won’t be elusive, it will be non-existent. This is the chance to really do something. Even if Allin is the one who saves the company, the inclusion of The Elite would only serve to tarnish that. This is an opportunity to build something different and establish something new at the top. More of the same isn’t what AEW needs to get to the next level.
Whoever winds up overcoming Mox must be prepared for war. Taking him down won’t happen on the first try. The conqueror must fail, get back up, and keep coming. Their will must be tested, and this is only the first question of the test. It’s a test Cassidy will fail.
Prediction: Moxley retains
