Tag: DraftKings UFC

UFC Fight Night 103 betting & DFS playbook: BJ Penn vs. Yair Rodriguez

Posted on by Paul Fontaine

Here’s some advice for your gambling and fantasy needs for Sunday’s UFC Fight Night 103 in Phoenix, Arizona, headlined by Yair Rodriguez taking on BJ Penn in a five-round featherweight bout on FOX Sports 1.

Yair Rodriguez (8-1) vs. BJ Penn (16-10-2)

  • Betting Odds: Rodriguez (-420), Penn (+335)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez- $9,200, Penn- $7,000
  • Key Statistic: Penn last won in November 2010, Rodriguez had yet to make pro debut

Penn finally makes his return to the Octagon when he takes on Rodriguez who is looking to add the biggest win to his resume yet. Penn announced his intentions to return to competition over a year ago, but many snags came along the way. He is a former champ in two divisions and a member of the UFC Hall Of Fame, but training under the coaching of Greg Jackson reignited his passion to compete.

At his peak, Penn was arguably the most talented fighter to ever grace the Octagon. Rodriguez is one of the most talented fighters in the sport today, and he was coached by Jackson in the past, but this will be his second fight under a new training camp out of Chicago. Penn made a name of himself for his relentless speed and aggression in the past with excellent boxing and a strong submission game.

The older you get, the reflexes go, and Penn is now 38. He didn’t look good when he last fought, and that was back in July 2014. He may be too old now to keep up with the speed and pace of Rodriguez. Rodriguez is flashy, but the longer the fight goes, the more he starts slowing down and making it a close fight on the scorecards. I do think this is a bad fight for Penn, but he’s made a career of proving people wrong. He has the right coaching team behind him, and one familiar with Rodriguez.

However, I see this as Rodriguez’ fight to lose. He is a heavy favorite and has the highest fantasy salary, but I still see him as great plays in both as his striking could finish Penn early.

Joe Lauzon (26-12) vs. Marcin Held (22-5)

  • Betting Odds: Lauzon (-110), Held (-110)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Lauzon- $8,500, Held- $7,700
  • Key Statistic: Lauzon and Held have a combined 30 wins by submission

Submission specialists clash in the co-main event as UFC veteran Lauzon welcomes Held to his second appearance inside the Octagon. Lauzon has been with the UFC since 2006, and should be around for as long as he wants to fight. He has racked up the most post-fight bonus awards in company history with 15, and is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. Held has 27 career fights at just 24 years of age, and it seems like his best is yet to come. He dropped a decision in his UFC debut to Diego Sanchez, and he doesn’t get an easy second bout.

Both men have a big track record of scoring wins by submission as Lauzon has gotten 18 wins by submission while Held has twelve. They are different in their submission attacks as Lauzon is a more all-around submission artist while Held looks for leg locks. Lauzon has more power in his fists, and that could be a key factor in this one. Held has never been finished by punches, but he has a lot of fights for a young age and that chin is going to be tested eventually.

Lauzon also has better conditioning, and the edge in experience. They are even on the betting odds, but Lauzon is the better bet. Lauzon is also a good fantasy play at his $8,500 salary as I can see him finding a sneaky finish of Held.

Court McGee (18-5) vs. Ben Saunders (20-7-2)

  • Betting Odds: McGee (-105), Saunders (-115)
  • DraftKings Salaries: McGee- $7,800, Saunders- $8,400
  • Key Statistic: In 11 UFC bouts each, McGee has 22 takedowns, Saunders has 2

McGee and Saunders are looking to break into the rankings discussion when they meet in a solid welterweight bout. Saunders steps into the Octagon for the first time in a year after competing in one fight outside of the UFC while he was a free agent. McGee looks to score his second straight win after scoring a decision in his last fight. This is an interesting styles clash fight.

McGee goes after the takedown as he averages two per fight, but he shoots for them several times per fight. Saunders hasn’t shown much of a solid takedown defense game, and he could find himself on his back a lot. Takedowns score points in both the fight and in fantasy, so McGee has the leg up there. Saunders also gets hit a lot as he leaves his chin out there, though McGee hasn’t finished an opponent by strikes since before he was in the UFC. Saunders is durable and he has some flashy submissions, so he won’t mind being taken down if it means he gets to hunt for those submissions.

Saunders also has more knockout wins on his record than he does submissions, though McGee has a solid chin. This fight is close on paper as evidenced by the betting odds. Both men would be solid bets as it will be a tough fight to score. McGee is behind on fantasy salaries, and I could see him scoring a lot of points due to takedowns. He is the better fantasy play and has great value.

John Moraga (16-5) vs. Sergio Pettis (14-2)

  • Betting Odds: Moraga (+130), Pettis (-150)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Moraga- $8,100, Pettis- $8,100
  • Key Statistic: Pettis has been finished in both of his losses

Two flyweights headed in different directions meet in the opening main card bout. Moraga is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Jussier Formiga, and he’ll be looking to bounce back from two straight losses. Pettis is looking to score his third straight win. This is a perfect test to see where Pettis is going to go at 125 pounds. He has plenty of potential, but he has hindered himself and been stopped in both of his losses.

Moraga is the type of opponent who can capitalize on openings, and he can apply pressure when needed. Pettis is a very well-rounded fighter who has shown improvement in each fight, but he has been shown to lose focus in fights at times, and it has cost him. Moraga is a sharp boxer, and while he isn’t much of a takedown threat, he is very dangerous on the mat. He is also sharp in the clinch and will go after his foes with elbows and dirty boxing. Pettis will be needing to utilize his footwork a lot in this one to keep Moraga from getting close, and that will be the difference.

They are close on the betting odds, and there is money that could be made on Moraga as he can find chances to score the win. I do like Pettis in this one though. For fantasy, they are even on salaries, and I see this one going the distance, so there are better plays on this card. If you’re looking at one in this fight, I would recommend Moraga as he has the better finishing ability.

Frankie Saenz (11-4) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-1)

  • Betting Odds: Saenz (-165), Mendes (+145)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Saenz- $8,300, Mendes- $7,900
  • Key Statistic: Saenz has a 74% takedown defense percentage

Neither one of these fighters have had it easy lately. Saenz has lost two straight to former champions in Urijah Faber and Eddie Wineland. Mendes lost his UFC debut to the new champion Cody Garbrandt, missing weight in the process, though he took it on short notice.

This could be a fight for a roster spot and both men will need a good showing. Saenz is the better fighter as he mixes his punches and takedowns well. Mendes is a reckless kickboxer who hasn’t shown that he can deal with pressure from an opponent. Saenz lands a lot of strikes and will switch to the takedowns. He hasn’t finished anyone in the UFC, but the power is there. Mendes has power, but he leaves himself open to being hit.

Seanz did get stopped in his last fight by Wineland, and he has left himself open to being hit. Mendes has the kind of power to finish Saenz. I like Saenz in this fight, and he is the play. I do think this one will find the winner scoring the finish.

Aleksei Oleinik (50-10-1) vs. Viktor Pesta (10-3)

  • Betting Odds: Oleinik (-140), Pesta (+120)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Oleinik- $8,600, Pesta- $7,600
  • Key Statistic: Oleinik has 41 wins by submission

There is a huge gap in experience between these two heavyweights, and this will be a curious bout. This will be Olenik’s 62nd career fight, while it’ll be the 14th for Pesta. Neither man land a lot of strikes, and this could be a boring styles clash.

Oleinik is a submission artist but he has heavy hands. Pesta has never been taken down in the UFC, and he has good takedowns. However, he has been knocked out in his last two fights, and Oleinik has some power, though he will be looking for submissions more. Oleinik has 41 wins by submission, so Pesta will need to be on the lookout.

I’m not expecting a particularly exciting fight, but I favor Oleinik big time in this fight, despite the fact he took this on late notice. Oleinik is a good bet to score a finish, so he will be the play to take in fantasy line-ups.

Tony Martin (10-3) vs. Alex White (11-2)

  • Betting Odds: Martin (-175), White (+155)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Martin- $8,900, White- $7,300
  • Key Statistic: White moves up a weight class on short notice

White is looking to score the upset as he moves up a weight class in taking a short notice fight against Martin. It has been a while since we have seen both men in action as Martin hasn’t fought since last January, and White has been out of action since February.

Martin is going to have a slight reach advantage, but White throws with a lot of volume and is the better fighter on the feet. Martin is a better takedown artist, though he begins to slow the longer the fight goes. White keeps a solid pace throughout fights. I do expect Martin to be able to take the fight to the mat as he is a big lightweight and White will be giving up the size in going up a weight class.

Martin is the betting favorite due to that, and due to White coming in on short notice. White is a very live underdog and he has a good shot at scoring the upset, especially as the fight goes deep into the late minutes. He is more of a finisher. White is a very good play in fantasy at a low salary, and he has the tools to stop Martin late in the fight.

Devin Powell (8-1) vs. Drakkar Klose (6-0-1)

  • Betting Odds: Powell (+220), Klose (-260)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Powell- $7,200, Klose- $9,000
  • Key Statistic: Klose took fight on short notice

Both men are making their UFC debuts in this fight. Powell is coming in off of being signed after being on Dana White’s “Looking For A Fight” show. Klose is coming into the fight on short notice as an injury replacement for Jordan Rinaldi. Powell has been fighting longer than Klose has, though Klose has fought more in the time since he made his pro debut.

Powell is more of a combination striker, but he has a lot of power in his strikes. Klose is more well-rounded and has a good takedown game to back him up. He is also a big lightweight so Powell will be giving up some size.

Despite taking the fight on short notice, Klose is the betting favorite and has the huge edge in fantasy salaries. Powell’s power could come into play and makes him a solid underdog fantasy target. I don’t expect this to go the distance, and I like Klose in this fight.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-3) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-5)

  • Betting Odds: Jones-Lybarger (+130), Ansaroff (-150)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Jones-Lybarger- $8,100, Ansaroff- $8,100
  • Key Statistic: Both are on two-fight losing skids

Two ladies looking to end their respective two-fight losing skids meet in the featured prelim on Fight Pass, and someone will be back in the win column. Both come from solid camps as Jones-Lybarger is with the MMA Lab team in Arizona, and Ansaroff comes from American Top Team.

This one likely stays on the feet. Jones-Lybarger is tall for the division at 5’7″, and she throws a lot of volume in her striking. She isn’t a hard hitter. Ansaroff is the harder hitter, and she has shown crisp combinations. Both are good defensive wrestlers, but I don’t see this hitting the mat too much. Ansaroff is more diverse on her feet, and I see her getting the decision.

She is the better betting option. However, I wouldn’t recommend having either lady in your fantasy line-ups as they have even salaries, and I don’t see value in either.

Walt Harris (8-5) vs. Chase Sherman (9-2)

  • Betting Odds: Harris (-135), Sherman (+115)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Harris- $8,700, Sherman- $7,500
  • Key Statistic: Both have won all of their fights by knockout

Heavyweight knockout artists clash in prelim action as both are fighting for their UFC futures. Both men have won all of their career fights by knockout, and each man has lost by knockout in their careers.

Harris has a reach advantage of three inches in this fight, and that could play a difference. He is a pure striker whereas Sherman has some wrestling to rely on. Sherman has bad defense on his feet, though, and he eats a lot of punches. He is durable enough, but that is going to catch up to him against an opponent with a lot of power like Harris.

I like Harris in this fight to win by knockout. I would be confident having him in my fantasy line-ups.

Bojan Mihajlovic (10-4) vs. Joachim Christensen (13-4)

  • Betting Odds: Mihajlovic (+200), Christensen (-240)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Mihajlovic- $7,400, Christensen- $8,800
  • Key Statistic: Mihajlovic makes his debut at 205 pounds

Mihajlovic fought at heavyweight in his UFC debut, and he gave up a ton of size to Francis Ngannou, who dwarfed him and finished him quickly. He is moving down to light heavyweight for his second UFC bout, and he gets a tough for in Christensen, who is in search of his first UFC win.

Both men are solid strikers, but both are older fighters in the twilight of their careers. Mihajlovic is going to be giving up height and reach, and that will help a solid pocket striker like Christensen. Mihajlovic packs power, but so does Christensen, and Christensen can switch it to a grappling battle better. He also has very good submissions.

This is likely a loser gets cut fight, and I favor Christensen in this one. He is a solid betting favorite and a solid fantasy play as I see him scoring a finish.

Dmitrii Smoliakov (8-1) vs. Cyril Asker (7-2)

  • Betting Odds: Smoliakov (+105), Asker (-125)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Smoliakov- $8,200, Asker- $8,000
  • Key Statistic: Asker absorbs almost 10 strikes per minute

A low-level heavyweight bout with a job on the line opens the card in Phoenix. Asker is the slight betting favorite, and he is the better striker of the two. Smoliakov hits hard and has some decent wrestling to turn to, but Asker is good at defending takedowns. Smoliakov put on a really bad performance in his UFC debut loss while Asker put up more of a fight before being knocked out.

Asker can be hit but Smoliakov doesn’t put together his punches all that well, and he showed a lack of finishing instinct in his UFC debut. Someone is likely going to sleep in this one, which could make for interesting fantasy plays. I like Asker in fantasy as he has a slightly lower salary, and I think he has the better chance to win.

UFC 207 betting & DFS playbook: Who to pick & why

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Looking for some advice to gamble some of your Christmas cash Friday night? Here’s suggestions, odds and tips for both betting and DFS for UFC 207.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes (13-4) vs. Ronda Rousey (12-1)

  • Betting Odds: Nunes (+120), Rousey (-130)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Nunes- $8,000, Rousey- $8,400
  • Key Statistic: Rousey hasn’t fought since November 2015

This is an interesting fight to say the least, mainly because there are a lot of question marks surrounding Rousey. Is she better than ever? Has she lost the passion to fight? Is it her last fight? Why is she being so quiet? We haven’t seen much of her since she was knocked out by Holly Holm and while she looks in the best shape of her career heading into fight week, she has refused to do any kind of media, so fans don’t know what to expect. Meanwhile, the dangerous Nunes is on a tear, winning four straight fights and becoming champion at UFC 200 by throttling Miesha Tate.

At her best, Rousey is a better fighter despite her not being as great on her feet. She has brought in new boxing training partners, but she hasn’t switched camps, and she comes from one that many think stunts her growth as a fighter. Nunes is dangerous on her feet, but she fades in fights.

I don’t expect this to go long and maybe not even get out of the first round. The longer it goes, it favors Rousey more. It favors Nunes on the feet, and Rousey on the mat. I think this is a toss-up fight, and a bet on either fighter is a good one. Both are good fantasy plays as well, so it’s best to go with your gut. Mine favors Rousey winning by submission in the first.

UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz (22-1) vs. Cody Garbrandt (10-0)

  • Betting Odds: Cruz (-210), Garbrandt (+190)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Cruz- $8,700, Garbrandt- $7,700
  • Key Statistic: Garbrandt has nine wins by knockout

Both men are looking to cement their names in contention for the best fighter of 2016, and Garbrandt is looking to unseat Cruz as the best bantamweight in the world. Cruz has long been one of the best fighters in the sport, and despite his injury-plagued past, he hasn’t lost a step inside the Octagon. He is also the smartest fighter in the sport, and he has made a career of beating guys from the Team Alpha Male camp. Garbrandt is the next in that line.

Cruz is a big favorite for good reason. Garbrandt is a knockout artist, but Cruz rarely gets hit. When he has, he isn’t chinny at all, and can take a punch. Cruz has excellent movement and Garbrandt is going to have to chase him a lot. The guys from his camp haven’t been able to emulate that, and the one who could, TJ Dillashaw, left the camp over a year ago.

I don’t expect Garbrandt to knock him out, and I doubt he can outpoint Cruz over five rounds. Cruz will land a lot and score some takedowns and rack up fantasy points. He is the better bet and the better fantasy play, especially in a five-round fight.

TJ Dillashaw (13-3) vs. John Lineker (29-7)

  • Betting Odds: Dillashaw (-240), Lineker (+220)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Dillashaw- $8,800, Lineker- $7,400
  • Key Statistic: Both men land over five significant strikes per minute

This is an incredibly interesting fight. Lineker is one of the toughest fighters in the sport and among the hardest-hitting fighters. He is also difficult to prepare for. Dillashaw has become a great fighter under the wing of Duane Ludwig, but he doesn’t have the finishing instinct that Lineker has. He fights too safe at times, and it will hurt him against Lineker.

Lineker is an action fighter and he will bring the fight to Dillashaw. The former champion is in a vulnerable position, and I don’t think this is a great match-up but one he had to take to get a title shot. Both men land a lot of strikes, and Dillashaw could look to take the fight to the mat, but Lineker is dangerous there too. Lineker has the power to end the fight with one punch.

This could be the best fight on the card. Dillashaw is a big favorite, so there is a lot of money to be made on Lineker in this fight. I actually think he will win the fight, which makes him the better fantasy play. I wouldn’t play Dillashaw in fantasy lineups as his salary is at the price where you need a finish, and I don’t see him finishing Lineker.

Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1 1 NC) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5)

  • Betting Odds: Kim (-140), Saffiedine (+130)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Kim- $8,500, Saffiedine- $7,700
  • Key Statistic: Kim averages three takedowns per 15 minutes

Kim and Saffiedine get the bump to the main card and both are looking to keep themselves in the top ten with an outside chance at contending for the title one day. Kim has won two straight and six of his last seven while Saffiedine has lost two of his last three. Kim is a judo artist with excellent judo throws, and while he is solid on his feet, he isn’t a knockout artist.

Saffiedine is a harder hitter, but he leans more on the safe side as a points fighter. He hasn’t shown that finishing instinct, which is further cemented by the fact he hasn’t finished an opponent in over six years. In fact, Saffiedine has gone the distance in nine of his last ten fights. When it comes to a finish, Kim is the better bet, but I don’t see Kim getting one here as Saffiedine is tough and durable.

I like Kim in this fight, but I wouldn’t bet on either. I also wouldn’t play either in fantasy. However, with only twenty fighters on the card and needing to have six in your lineups, if you are to play one, Kim is the better play due to takedowns and volume.

Louis Smolka (11-2) vs. Ray Borg (9-2)

  • Betting Odds: Smolka (+125), Borg (-135)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Smolka- $8,300, Borg- $7,900
  • Key Statistic: Smolka has a five-inch reach advantage

Smolka and Borg open the main card in a flyweight bout as both look to move up the rankings. Borg missed weight badly though, so his progress may be stunted even with a win.

Smolka is coming off being submitted by Brandon Moreno in a big upset while Borg dropped a decision to Justin Scoggins in his last fight. Smolka has a big advantage in height and reach in this fight, coming in with five inches over Borg in each. Smolka is a good submission artist but he’s had the tendency to get caught when he puts himself in a bad position.

Borg is a solid takedown artist and makes good use of his time in top position. Borg isn’t much of a finisher on his feet and Smolka is the better finisher. Both men have similar wins by submission, and only Smolka has been stopped in his career.

I give the edge in this fight to Smolka, but both men are solid fantasy plays. I feel like this fight will go the distance and it could play a big role in fantasy lineups.

Johny Hendricks (17-5) vs. Neil Magny (18-5)

  • Betting Odds: Hendricks (+110), Magny (-120)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Hendricks- $8,000, Magny- $8,200
  • Key Statistic: Hendricks has 55 takedowns in UFC competition, Magny has 34

Hendricks may have his last chance here at getting back into the title picture as he has lost his last two fights and missed weight again. Magny was on a tear at 170 pounds but has seen his momentum stall recently.

Whenever Hendricks has missed weight, it has hindered his performance as there is a noticeable decline. At his best, Hendricks has the hardest punch at 170 pounds, and a huge wrestling game to back that up. Magny also has a strong takedown game, and he uses his length well. He was hurt pretty badly by Lorenz Larkin in his last fight, and Hendricks can finish him if he is at his best.

This is a tossup fight, and both men are close in the odds and in fantasy. I like Hendricks in this one because of the better chance of a finish.

Antonio Carlos Junior (6-2 1 NC) vs. Marvin Vettori (11-2)

  • Betting Odds: Carlos Junior (-135), Vettori (+125)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Carlos Junior- $8,100, Vettori- $8,100
  • Key Statistic: Carlos Junior has five submission wins, Vettori has eight

This is a solid battle of middleweight prospects. Vettori has won six straight fights and is coming in with a lot of momentum. Carlos Junior has struggled with consistency inside the Octagon as the former TUF Brazil winner has just three wins in six UFC appearances. Carlos Junior is big and athletic, has a fully developed game, and his grappling is very good. Vettori has some good takedowns and good submissions has he has submitted eight of his foes.

Vettori has won all eleven of his fights by stoppage and has never been stopped in his career. Carlos Junior, while an excellent grappler, has some deficiencies on his feet, and Vettori could take advantage there. It is almost a tossup in straight betting, and they have even fantasy salaries. Vettori is the better play in this fight as he has the better chance of scoring a finish, but both are solid plays. I feel Vettori has more opportunities for maximum scoring.

Mike Pyle (27-12-1) vs. Alex Garcia (13-3)

  • Betting Odds: Pyle (+155), Garcia (-175)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Pyle- $7,600, Garcia- $8,600
  • Key Statistic: Pyle has been knocked out in five of his seven UFC losses

Pyle is a 41-year-old veteran of the sport, and his career is starting to come to an end. He is looking for one last big win when he takes on Garcia, who has struggled recently inside the Octagon. This is a good bounce back fight for Garcia, but he shouldn’t take Pyle too lightly. Pyle is a very good fighter and he has 23 wins by stoppage on his record, but his chin is starting to let him down as he’s been knocked out in three of his last four losses.

Garcia is an explosive puncher and he has good takedowns, but he shouldn’t take Pyle lightly on the mat. Pyle can win this fight if he can get the fight in the clinch and wear Garcia down. His chin makes him hard to trust, though. I think this is Garcia’s fight to lose, and I’m sensing a knockout happening here. He is the fantasy play in this one.

Brandon Thatch (11-4) vs. Niko Price (8-0)

  • Betting Odds: Thatch (-175), Price (+155)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Thatch- $9,000, Price- $7,200
  • Key Statistic: Thatch has won all of his fights by stoppage

Thatch was a hot prospect at one time at 170 pounds, but he now finds himself in a must-win situation after losing his last three fights. Price is making his UFC debut on short notice with an undefeated record, and he has a good chance to score an upset. Thatch is a big welterweight and he has explosive striking skills.

All of Thatch’s wins have seen him finish his opponent, with seven wins by knockout and four by submission. If he can find what he’s been missing over the last few years, he is dangerous and this is his fight to lose. Price will try to grapple and find a submission, but he’s far from the level of competition that Thatch has lost to. Thatch has the highest fantasy salary on the card, though I see him winning by a knockout as his striking is too explosive for Price.

Alex Oliveira (16-3-1 1 NC) vs. Tim Means (26-7-1)

  • Betting Odds: Oliveira (-105), Means (-115)
  • DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira- $7,800, Means- $8,400
  • Key Statistic: Means has 22 wins by stoppage

This is one of the better fights on the card and opens the show on Fight Pass. Oliveira is going back up to 170 pounds after missing weight badly for a lightweight bout in his last fight, and he has good size to adjust to welterweight. Means is looking to win his third straight after back-to-back knockout wins, running his record to 22 stoppage wins in his 26 overall wins.

Means is aggressive on his feet and he strings together his punches well, and he is dangerous inside the pocket, in the clinch, and on top in the mat. Oliveira has good reach and he has more power on his feet. Oliveira is the better takedown artist, and he is good as well on the ground. This is a really close fight on paper.

Means has more finishing ability, and Oliveira has been submitted twice inside the Octagon. This fight could see a finish in either way, or it could go the distance. It’ll probably go back-and-forth and will be good. I like Means as the better play in this fight as his finishing chances are higher.

UFC On FOX 22 Betting & Fantasy Playbook

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for your gambling and fantasy needs for Saturday’s UFC On FOX 22 event in Sacramento, California, headlined by Paige VanZant taking on Michelle Waterson in a five-round women’s strawweight bout on FOX.

MAIN CARD

Paige VanZant (7-2) vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4)

Betting Odds: VanZant (-115), Waterson (-105)
DraftKings Salaries: VanZant- $8,300, Waterson- $7,900
Key Statistic: Waterson hasn’t fought since July 2015
Analysis: VanZant and Waterson square off in the main event in what should be a very competitive bout. Waterson steps back into the Octagon for the first time in 17 months, so there will likely be some ring rust to shake off. VanZant showed more aggression in her last fight, and she should be looking to do the same against an opponent coming off the long layoff. Waterson has fought most of her career at 105 pounds, and she moved up in weight to get in the UFC, so she will be giving up a little bit of size. However, she has noticeably gotten a little bigger heading into this fight. VanZant’s striking was also much more improved in her last fight with Bec Rawlings, and she got a spectacular finish. Waterson is a better fighter than Rawlings, and she has some good striking and a good ground game. I feel like this fight will go 25 minutes. The betting odds are a pick ’em, and I favor VanZant in this fight. Both women would be solid fantasy plays, but I see more upside in VanZant. The extra ten minutes should give more scoring opportunities, and I feel she is a safe play.

Sage Northcutt (8-1) vs. Mickey Gall (3-0)

Betting Odds: Northcutt (-105), Gall (-115)
DraftKings Salaries: Northcutt- $8,000, Gall- $8,200
Key Statistic: Gall has never fought an opponent with UFC experience
Analysis: This one will be interesting as it is two marketable young fighters in a prime spot, but neither one is close to being ready for tough competition. Northcutt has actually beaten opponents who have won in the UFC. Gall has just three fights, all wins, but none against a true UFC fighter. Northcutt already has the edge there. Gall may actually be a better prospect in the future, but he is still unexperienced. Northcutt is not without his flaws, but his athleticism is great, and he is fast and powerful. He is moving back up to welterweight, and while he got his only career loss in that weight class, his growing size is more suitable for the division. Gall is going to have to pressure Northcutt and drag him down quickly, because Northcutt has shown to be lost most of the time on the mat. Northcutt will have the big edge on the feet. I’m surprised the betting odds and fantasy salaries are so close, and I think Northcutt is the easy play in this fight. He is definitely worth putting on your fantasy line-up, and I expect him to have a high draft percentage.

Urijah Faber (33-10) vs. Brad Pickett (25-12)

Betting Odds: Faber (-440), Pickett (+350)
DraftKings Salaries: Faber- $9,600, Pickett- $6,000
Key Statistic: Faber’s final career fight
Analysis: A future hall-of-famer and a bonafide legend of the smaller weight classes, Faber will walk to the Octagon for the final time in his career for his final fight. Pickett is also near the end of the road as a fighter, and this could be it for him as well. We could be treated to a special fight. Neither man is near their best, but Faber is still better at this stage. Pickett is coming off a bad loss, and Faber has been at least competitive in his recent fights. Pickett still packs some pop in his hands, but Faber is still more crafty on his feet. Faber is still the king of scrambles, and he has 19 wins by submission in his career. Pickett has been submitted five times in his career. This fight is better suited for Faber to end his career on a high note. Pickett is a big underdog, but he isn’t worth placing a bet on. Faber has the highest salary on the card, and you have to hope he gets a finish. He definitely has a big chance, but that is far from a guarantee. I would only roster him if you can afford to, though I do expect him in a high percentage of fantasy line-ups.

Alan Jouban (14-4) vs. Mike Perry (9-0)

Betting Odds: Jouban (+110), Perry (-130)
DraftKings Salaries: Jouban- $7,700, Perry- $8,500
Key Statistic: Each man has nine wins by knockout
Analysis: This one should be a slugfest and is a great bit of matchmaking. Both men are powerful strikers. Perry has won all of his professional fights by knockout. I don’t expect it to go to the ground, much, or even at all. Jouban has a more diverse arsenal, with some good wrestling and he is good in the clinch. Perry is more powerful, but his defense on the feet isn’t the greatest. He tends to leave his chin out there too much, and Jouban packs enough in his punches to make him pay. Jouban is also physically big, and that might be too much for Perry to bully around in a clinch. Jouban will also switch up his striking while Perry just looks to punch. With all of that being said, Perry has yet to lose, and Jouban has. Perry is the favorite here, and I favor him, but Jouban is a real live underdog play. When it comes to fantasy plays, both men are solid plays. It just depends on how you wanna fill your line-up. I feel this goes to a finish, and it’ll be a back-and-forth fight.

PRELIMS

Henrique da Silva (12-0) vs. Paul Craig (8-0)

Betting Odds: da Silva (-225), Craig (+185)
DraftKings Salaries: da Silva- $9,000, Craig- $7,200
Key Statistic: Each man has won all of their fights by finish
Analysis: Two undefeated prospects at 205 pounds highlight the prelims on Saturday. This should bring plenty of fireworks as both men have finished all of their opponents. Da Silva has had to come from behind in both of his fights in the UFC, but he has that Octagon experience while Craig is making his debut. Craig is tall for the division at six-foot-four, and he has some good submissions. Da Silva is powerful on his feet and is very aggressive in looking for the knockout. Da Silva is a big favorite due to his UFC experience, and that makes Craig a live underdog. This is a pick ’em fight in my view, and the winner is going to finish the loser. Craig is a great underdog play in fantasy.

Cole Miller (21-10 1 NC) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2)

Betting Odds: Miller (-105), Hirota (-115)
DraftKings Salaries: Miller- $8,100, Hirota- $8,100
Key Statistic: Miller has 15 wins by submission
Analysis: A very vocal and unhappy Miller steps back into the Octagon for perhaps the last time as he takes on Hirota at 145 pounds. Hirota is still in search of his first UFC win in his fourth appearance, and this may be his best chance thus far. Miller is long for the division and he uses his jab well, and he has an excellent ground game with 15 career submissions. Hirota is a good wrestler but he may not wanna play in the guard of Miller for very long. This is essentially a pick ’em fight in the betting odds and in fantasy. I like Miller as the better play here due to his knack for getting submissions. He has a very good chance of finishing Hirota and is a solid pick at $8,100.

Bryan Barberena (12-3) vs. Colby Covington (10-1)

Betting Odds: Barberena (+300), Covington (-360)
DraftKings Salaries: Barberena- $7,300, Covington- $8,900
Key Statistic: Both men each have one career submission loss
Analysis: Barberena and Covington will each be looking to score their third straight win when they square off on Saturday. Covington is the better prospect of the two, but Barberena has scored some upset victories in his last two fights. Barberena is the better fighter on the feet with more aggression, but Covington makes up for that in his huge takedowns and strong top game. He is very powerful and Barberena is going to be giving up some size. Barberena has been known to spring on an upset, so a bet on him wouldn’t be a bad option, though he is the underdog for good reason. I’m not sure I would play either one in fantasy as I expect it to go the distance. If I were to play one, it would be Barberena as an upset play.

James Moontasri (9-4) vs. Alex Morono (12-3)

Betting Odds: Moontasri (-110), Morono (-110)
DraftKings Salaries: Moontasri- $7,800, Morono- $8,400
Key Statistic: Neither man has scored a takedown in UFC competition
Analysis: Morono is going to be in his second UFC bout, and while he won his first, it was controversial and he wasn’t all that impressive. He’s not overly great at anything, and is the definition of low-level UFC fighter. Moontasri has struggled inside the Octagon, but he really should be the favorite in this fight, which he is not. He has flashy striking and knockout power, and we aren’t sure if Morono can take a punch. Morono isn’t a great wrestler either, and that is what Moontasri has struggled against in the past. Moontasri is a great underdog play, and he has a nice path to a knockout finish. He is worth a look for fantasy line-ups.

Josh Emmett (10-0) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1)

Betting Odds: Emmett (-170), Holtzman (+150)
DraftKings Salaries: Emmett- $8,700, Holtzman- $7,500
Key Statistic: Holtzman lands on over 52% of his strikes
Analysis: Emmett is undefeated and from the Team Alpha Male camp, so he will have the crowd behind him in Sacramento. Holtzman is the better looking athlete and he’s good in every aspect of the fight. Emmett is a strong wrestler with some good power in his combinations. Holtzman is probably the better grappler, but Emmett is also good on the ground, and should be considering his training camp. It’s a close fight on paper, but Emmett is a decent-sized favorite, which makes Holtzman a good underdog bet. I would lean away from putting either of these two in your fantasy line-ups, though, as I expect a decision and not a lot of scoring opportunities.

Leslie Smith (8-7-1) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2)

Betting Odds: Smith (+255), Aldana (-310)
DraftKings Salaries: Smith- $7,100, Aldana- $9,100
Key Statistic: Aldana has never been the distance in her career
Analysis: Aldana is making her UFC debut coming over from Invicta, and she gets a good match-up against the veteran in Smith. Smith is just 2-3 inside the Octagon and has struggled to put together a good run. She is a brawler at heart, but she will lose a brawl against Aldana, who is very technical on her feet and has a lot of power. The only issue with Aldana is she lacks head movement at times. I don’t see this one going to the ground at all. Smith has been knocked out by opponents, and with Aldana’s power and crisp boxing, she should be the overwhelming favorite, which she is. Aldana is also a good fantasy play, and I would avoid Smith completely.

Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2)

Betting Odds: Wineland (-225), Mizugaki (+185)
DraftKings Salaries: Wineland- $8,800, Mizugaki- $7,400
Key Statistic: Mizugaki has scored 15 of his 21 wins by decision
Analysis: Wineland looked like he was headed to the end of his career, but looked fresh in his knockout win over Frankie Saenz in July. Mizugaki has lost three of his last four, and he has been getting knocked out in those. That spells trouble here. Wineland is a strong striker with a lot of power, and he has great head movement and good counters. Mizugaki likes to grapple and push the pace, but Wineland has good defense and will be looking to exploit the chin early. Wineland is going to find a way to keep this standing. This is Wineland’s fight to lose. He is a great betting option, and his fantasy value is very good despite a high salary.

Hector Sandoval (12-3) vs. Fredy Serrano (3-1)

Betting Odds: Sandoval (-130), Serrano (+110)
DraftKings Salaries: Sandoval- $8,100, Serrano- $8,100
Key Statistic: Serrano competed in the Olympics in wrestling
Analysis: Both fighters need a win in this one, and Sandoval will have the crowd behind him in Sacramento. Serrano is an Olympic wrestler, but he’s getting into MMA late. He has shown good power against weaker competition, and struggled against Ryan Benoit in his last fight. Serrano is a better athlete but Sandoval is the better overall fighter with crisper combinations. They are even in fantasy salaries, but I really wouldn’t recommend having either in your line-up.

Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-2)

Betting Odds: Velickovic (-160), Aliev (+140)
DraftKings Salaries: Velickovic- $8,600, Aliev- $7,600
Key Statistic: Aliev hasn’t fought since January 2015
Analysis: Aliev is coming in off of an almost two-year long layoff while Velickovic is looking to remain unbeaten in the UFC. If this fight stays on the feet, it will belong to Velickovic as he is the better striker and comes from a southpaw stance. Aliev is a sambo specialist and has a strong takedown game and is powerful from the top. Each man has a clear path for victory and I give Velickovic a slight edge in this one due to being more active. I wouldn’t play either in fantasy line-ups though Aliev would be the more tempting play with the lower salary.

UFC Fight Night 102 Betting & Fantasy Playbook

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for your gambling and fantasy needs for Friday’s UFC Fight Night 102 event in Albany, New York, headlined by Derrick Lewis against Shamil Abdurakhimov in a five-round heavyweight bout on UFC Fight Pass.

MAIN CARD

Derrick Lewis (16-4 1 NC) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (17-3)

Betting Odds: Lewis (-200), Abdurakhimov (+185)
DraftKings Salaries: Lewis- $9,100, Abdurakhimov- $7,100
Key Statistic: Lewis has 14 wins by knockout
Analysis: Lewis is one of the heaviest hitters in the heavyweight division, scoring 14 of his 16 wins by knockout. The fight is also going five rounds, but I don’t expect it will go the full 25 minutes. Abdurakhimov is a durable heavyweight and he’s only been finished by punches once in his career, but he hasn’t fought anyone with the power of Lewis. Abdurakhimov will likely be looking to take Lewis down, but if he ends up on bottom, big fists will be coming from Lewis. Lewis went the distance in his last fight, but I don’t see this one going the distance at all. I like Lewis in this fight, both in straight betting and in fantasy contests. He is solid at his $9,100 fantasy salary.

Francis Ngannou (8-1) vs. Anthony Hamilton (15-5)

Betting Odds: Ngannou (-525), Hamilton (+415)
DraftKings Salaries: Ngannou- $9,700, Hamilton- $6,500
Key Statistic: Ngannou will have a 7-inch reach advantage
Analysis: Ngannou is a physically imposing heavyweight, big at six-foot-four and around 260 pounds. He has won eight of his nine career fights, and all eight have come by stoppage. Hamilton is a serviceable heavyweight with some power, but he has been stopped in four of his five losses. This fight looks like he is just being put in the Octagon to give Ngannou another impressive win. Ngannou is going to have a big seven-inch reach advantage over him. Ngannou is a heavy favorite in this fight, and if he loses it’s a huge upset. I wouldn’t put money down on either as the return on Ngannou would be small. I like Ngannou as my top play in fantasy, and he commands the highest salary on this card at $9,700, but I think he will get a first-round finish, and Hamilton is a fighter to avoid.

Corey Anderson (8-2) vs. Sean O’Connell (17-8)

Betting Odds: Anderson (-420), O’Connell (+335)
DraftKings Salaries: Anderson- $9,000, O’Connell- $7,200
Key Statistic: Anderson has 24 takedowns in 7 UFC fights
Analysis: Anderson will be looking to get back in the win column after losing to Mauricio Rua in May. He is good prospect at 205 pounds with some excellent wrestling, having scored multiple takedowns in six of his seven UFC fights. O’Connell is a lower-level light heavyweight who has a ton of heart and is very durable, and he likes to have exciting fights. This one might not be one, though. Anderson isn’t much of a finisher, having won his last four fights by decision, and he will likely keep taking O’Connell down and dominating on the top. It doesn’t make for an exciting fight, but Anderson is a great bet to win. His takedowns will score some fantasy points, but I don’t see a finish happening here. His salary is just a tad too high at $9,000 to take a big chance when there are proven finishers at similar salaries.

Gian Villante (14-7) vs. Saparbek Safarov (8-0)

Betting Odds: Villante (-175), Safarov (+155)
DraftKings Salaries: Villante- $8,800, Safarov- $7,400
Key Statistic: Villante absorbs more than 5 strikes per minute
Analysis: Villante looks to rebound from a loss in his last fight when he takes on late replacement Safarov, who is making his UFC debut on just one week’s notice. Safarov is undefeated in his career and has scored all eight of his wins by stoppage. He is a legitimate prospect at 205 pounds. Villante has made a name of being a durable fighter, but he can be stopped, as evidenced by his three losses by knockout. Villante won’t be afraid to trade on the feet, and he has good wrestling to rely on. He does get hit a lot, and Safarov is dangerous on his feet. Despite the late notice, Safarov is a good underdog bet both in straight bets and in fantasy games, especially at a $7,400 salary. This is a toss-up fight, but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a convincing win by Villante.

PRELIMS

Justine Kish (5-0) vs. Ashley Yoder (5-1)

Betting Odds: Kish (-235), Yoder (+195)
DraftKings Salaries: Kish- $8,300, Yoder- $7,900
Key Statistic: Kish has fought just once since January 2014
Analysis: Kish puts her undefeated MMA record on the line against TUF 23 competitor, Yoder, in the featured prelim bout. Kish has a wealth of kickboxing experience, but she has been dealing with big injury issues over the last few years. Yoder has shown to have good submission skills, winning four of her five career fights with armbars. Kish is the better fighter on the feet, but she does have a decent ground game as well. Both are close in experience in MMA, but Kish has more overall in fighting. Yoder is a good underdog bet, but she did fight less than a month ago. I like Kish in this fight, but I am staying away from both in fantasy line-ups.

Randy Brown (8-1) vs. Brian Camozzi (7-2)

Betting Odds: Brown (-170), Camozzi (+150)
DraftKings Salaries: Brown- $8,200, Camozzi- $8,000
Key Statistic: Brown has seven wins by stoppage
Analysis: Brown looks to get a win streak going when he takes on the debuting Brian Camozzi, younger brother of UFC middleweight Chris Camozzi. Both of these men are finishers. Brown has finished opponents in seven of his eight wins, and Camozzi has finished opponents in all seven of his wins, six coming in the first round. Both men are interesting prospects at 170 pounds, and both are solid strikers. Camozzi is the better submission artist, and Brown has had trouble getting up from his back. There is no clear favorite in this bout, but Brown has more potential. Camozzi is a good underdog bet though I like Brown at his $8,200 fantasy salary.

Joe Gigliotti (7-1) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (24-8)

Betting Odds: Gigliotti (+185), Meerschaert (-225)
DraftKings Salaries: Gigliotti- $7,600, Meerschaert- $8,600
Key Statistic: Meerschaert has won 22 of his 24 fights by stoppage
Analysis: Meerschaert looks for his 25th career win in his UFC debut as he comes in as an injury replacement to take on Gigliotti, who is looking for his first UFC win. Meerschaert has been impressive in the regional promotions, having racked up 22 wins by stoppage. He is a finisher, but so is Gigliotti, as all of his wins have been by a finish. Both men like to look for chokes, but Gigliotti has more power on his feet and has better chances to finish it on the feet. He also has had a full camp, something that will give him that extra edge. I like Gigliotti in this fight, and he has good underdog value.

Andrew Sanchez (8-2) vs. Trevor Smith (14-6)

Betting Odds: Sanchez (-200), Smith (+170)
DraftKings Salaries: Sanchez- $8,700, Smith- $7,500
Key Statistic: Smith has been finished in five of his six losses
Analysis: Sanchez won TUF 23 in July, and it was the first time he went the distance in a win in his career. It wasn’t an exciting performance either. Smith has gotten better the older he has gotten, but he hasn’t scored that true signature win. He has nine wins by submission, but none inside the Octagon. He gets finished a lot in his losses, and he isn’t all that consistent. This is a closer fight on paper than the records indicate. Sanchez has improved on his feet though he still likes to drag fights to the mat. A grappling battle may favor Smith, though, as he has become a grinder at this stage of his career. I’m not expecting a memorable fight, and Smith has some value as an underdog. I will be testing him in my fantasy line-ups, and he gives you a decent option at winning money.

Tiago Trator (20-5-1 1 NC) vs. Shane Burgos (7-0)

Betting Odds: Trator (+150), Burgos (-170)
DraftKings Salaries: Trator- $7,800, Burgos- $8,400
Key Statistic: Burgos has scored all seven of his wins by stoppage
Analysis: Trator returns to action after being out for 15 months, and he gets a late replacement in the undefeated Burgos, who makes his UFC debut. Trator has gotten a lot of finishes in his career, but none in his short UFC career. Burgos has scored four of his wins by submission and three by knockout, and he has five first-round wins. While he is coming in on short notice, he is a legitimate prospect with good submission skills. He is also the favorite in this fight, and I like his chances. The short notice is tough, though, and Trator could be a sneaky underdog bet. I like Burgos better in fantasy games as I don’t see Trator scoring a finish.

Frankie Perez (10-2) vs. Marc Diakiese (10-0)

Betting Odds: Perez (+245), Diakiese (-290)
DraftKings Salaries: Perez- $7,000, Diakiese- $9,200
Key Statistic: Perez coming out of retirement and fights for first time since August 2015
Analysis: Diakiese has real star potential and I think he should be higher on this card. He is a big favorite in this fight, and for good reason as Perez is coming out of retirement and fighting for the first time in nearly 16 months. Diakiese has a lot of power in his hands and is a skilled takedown artist with an active ground game. Perez has power in his hands, but he hasn’t shown a huge array of skillset in his short UFC career. Worse off, it’s hard to judge how he will be coming out of retirement. Diakiese is a big favorite in this fight and a strong fantasy play, and he is one of the top targets on this card. I do expect him to have a high draft percentage in fantasy games, so heed caution.

Keith Berish (5-0 1 NC) vs. Ryan Janes (8-1)

Betting Odds: Berish (+225), Janes (-265)
DraftKings Salaries: Berish- $7,300, Janes- $8,900
Key Statistic: Berish hasn’t fought since July 2014
Analysis: This fight is hard to get a read on. Berish hasn’t fought since July 2014, and it was a quick loss, and he blew out his knee in the process, to Robert Drysdale that was later overturned. Janes is making his UFC debut at 35-years-old, and he hasn’t fought in 16 months. Janes is a grappler by trade, but his striking leaves a lot to be desired. Berish is better on the feet, and it’s hard to know his grappling game as his only test was with Drysdale, one of the best grapplers in the world. This is a real tough fight to call as both are clear low-level UFC middleweights. Berish being such a low salary fighter makes him a solid underdog play in fantasy games, and I would stay away from straight betting on this fight.

Juliana Lima (8-3) vs. JJ Aldrich (4-1)

Betting Odds: Lima (-240), Aldrich (+200)
DraftKings Salaries: Lima- $8,500, Aldrich- $7,700
Key Statistic: Aldrich takes fight on one week’s notice
Analysis: Aldrich is making her UFC debut on short notice, and it’s a tough one in taking on Lima. Lima has two UFC losses, but they came to the only two strawweight champions in company history- Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. She is pretty durable on her feet and has good wrestling. Aldrich may not have a lot of pro experience, but she has a ton of amateur experience. She comes from a southpaw stance and has some pop in her punches, but she doesn’t have the grappling to match Lima. Aldrich did just fight on November 18, so she won’t be fresh, while Lima has had a full training camp. This fight favors Lima, but I don’t see her getting a finish, making her a questionable fantasy play. I would avoid if you can find better options for your line-ups.

UFC Fight Night 100 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 100 event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, headlined by Ryan Bader taking on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a five-round light heavyweight bout on FOX Sports 1.

Top Target: Thomas Almeida ($9,700)

Thomas Almeida comes into Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 100 event in Sao Paulo looking to do something he has never done- rebound from a loss. Almeida started his career off with twenty straight wins, 19 coming by stoppage, leading to his first UFC main event in May. That night on Memorial Day Weekend didn’t go as planned as Almeida suffered his first loss, being knocked out by Cody Garbrandt in the first round. Garbrandt has since gone on to earn a title shot at 135 pounds, and Almeida is looking to get back on track towards earning a title opportunity himself.

As he looks to bounce back, Almeida takes on Albert Morales, who comes into his second UFC bout with an unbeaten record in seven fights. Morales had a draw with Alejandro Perez in his UFC debut, and Almeida is a major step up in competition. It is a winnable fight for Morales if he is able to execute a solid gameplan as Almeida is a hittable fighter and Morales hits with a lot of power. Almeida can take a few minutes to get going, but when he is on, he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the bantamweight division.

Almeida is a strong volume striker, and his constant pressure wears down his foes quickly. He has a strong arsenal of attacks, using his hands, knees and feet to finish fights. The majority of his stoppage wins have come in the first round. This fight is going to be contested on the feet as I don’t see either man attempting to get the fight to the mat. Almeida commands the highest salary on this card, but I think that is justified. His experience is going to be hard for Morales to match in ability, and Almeida is definitely the better fighter.

There is no question about that. I’m expecting a big stoppage win quickly for Almeida as he gets back on track.

Value Target: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira ($6,700)

Despite a long and somewhat storied career, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will only be competing in his second UFC main event when he steps inside the Octagon across from Ryan Bader on Saturday night. Bader is an injury replacement for Alexander Gustafsson, and this is yet another rematch fight in a main event position on Saturday. Bader won the first fight by decision, and he won it rather easily.

Over six years have passed and both men are in different stages now than then. Nogueira is on the back end of his career at 40-years-old, while Bader is on the cusp of title contention following a recent run of six wins in his last seven fights. Bader is also on the last fight of his contract, and that could be a little bit of a distraction. The last time Bader headlined a Brazilian fight card, he was knocked out in the opening round by Glover Teixeira. Nogueira still has his excellent boxing skill, and fighting in Brazil in a headline position could give him some boosted confidence.

Bader has also improved greatly since their first fight as he is more of a well-rounded mixed martial artist. He has big power in his hands and still has his great wrestling. He is great at mixing his high output of strikes with his takedown attempts, and while he isn’t a finish threat on the mat, he can keep an opponent down. Nogueira should know what to expect, and he is going to be looking to use his striking from the southpaw position to keep Bader at a distance. Nogueira has that power in his hands and Bader can be finished. This fight may be Bader’s to lose, but Nogueira has a really good shot at winning due to his striking skills.

Nogueira has such a low salary that it is going to be hard to pass up, and he has very good value at his price point. If you need a low-cost option, Lil’ Nog is a great option.

Target To Avoid: Johnny Eduardo ($8,600)

It’s crazy to think that Johnny Eduardo, at 36 years of age, is now in his 20th year of competing, as he made his professional debut in November 1996. It is a career that has spanned 37 professional fights, but he is stepping inside the Octagon for only the fifth time on Saturday night when he takes on Manvel Gamburyan. Eduardo has been under the UFC umbrella since August 2011 as injuries have slowed him down to just four fights in over five years. He hasn’t fought since December, which was his first fight since May 2014. He has shown a good share of ring rust in his fights, and he may show that again when he fights the tough Gamburyan.

Both men are power strikers and this fight will likely be decided by takedowns. Gamburyan is a skilled takedown artist and Eduardo has strong takedown defense. Eduardo is going to have the length and reach advantage over the stocky Gamburyan, but Gamburyan is good enough to get inside the pocket and deliver strong body shots. Eduardo knows how to keep his foes at a distance with punishing leg kicks. The biggest thing is Eduardo doesn’t have a lot of volume output on his strikes while Gamburyan is constantly threatening with the takedown. Eduardo’s takedown defense is going to have to be at a peak in this one.

In fantasy scoring, with Eduardo not landing a lot of strikes, he isn’t going to rack up points that way. He isn’t going to rack up points getting takedowns as I don’t expect him to score any. I don’t even think he’s going to win this fight, but if he does, it’s going to be a decision win where he doesn’t have a lot of scoring impact. He has a higher salary, and I think he is the fighter to avoid on this fight card.

Underdog Target: Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700)

Gadzhimurad Antigulov makes his UFC debut in Sao Paulo when he takes on Brazilian light heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima in what could be an action-packed preliminary bout. Antigulov is 18-4 in his career but enters the UFC riding a 12-fight win streak. What is even more impressive is that in his 18 career wins, 17 have come by stoppage- twelve by submission and four by knockout. However, he has been finished in all four of his career losses.

In contrast, de Lima has only been the distance three times in his 18-fight career. Simply put, this fight likely isn’t going the full 15 minutes. Both men are aggressive fighters with heavy hands. de Lima has a clear advantage on the feet while Antigulov has an advantage in the grappling and ground game departments. Antigulov has a background in Sambo, but the big question in his skillset is his conditioning. He gets tired very easily. de Lima gets tired easily as well.

Neither man sees a lot of action past the opening round, so if this goes longer than five minutes, it could get very interesting. A longer fight favors a striker, and de Lima would be stronger later. It’s a matter of which fighter is going to be able to implement his gameplan. I like Antigulov in this fight, and he is a very good underdog target at a $7,700 salary.

Both men have real good shots at winning, but when you need an underdog, he is as good of a bet as any.

Our Line-ups

Ryan Frederick: Thomas Almeida ($9,700), Claudia Gadelha ($9,200), Justin Scoggins ($8,400), Darren Stewart ($8,200), Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700), Antonio Rogerio Nogueira ($6,700)

With Thomas Almeida being my top target on this card, he is definitely going in my line-up. I like Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira as underdog value picks, and they are part of my line-up. I’m rounding out my final three spots with Claudia Gadelha, Justin Scoggins and Darren Stewart. Gadelha is looking to get back into title contention as she fights Cortney Casey. Gadelha is the superior fighter and if she can get inside the length of Casey, her takedowns and top game should net her a good amount of points.

Scoggins moves up to 135 pounds, and his power should follow him there. He is improving everywhere and his fight with Pedro Munhoz should be a very good fight. I give him the edge and he has a good shot at finishing Munhoz. Stewart makes his UFC debut and while he is short for 205 pounds, he is an excellent wrestler. Takedowns score a lot of points and I expect some takedowns as he fights Francimar Barroso. It’s a winnable fight for him and I like his chances.

Paul Fontaine: Jack Hermansson ($8,900), Kamaru Usman ($8,800), Sergio Moraes ($8,700), Thales Leites ($8,300), Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700), Manny Gamburyan ($7,600)

Jack Hermansson is on a 9 fight win streak and prior to his UFC debut had finished most of his opponents. He should do that here again an overmatched Cezar Ferreira. Kamaru Usman is a future star in the welterweight division and he should have a great fight with local product Warlley Alves but he’ll come out ahead. The first Brazillian on my team is Sergio Moraes. He hasn’t lost since his UFC debut in 2012 and has finished all but one of his opponents since then. 

A couple of veterans in Thales Leites and Manny Gamburyan are my net two picks and I look for each to score quick stoppage wins and earn me a lot of points. I’m going completely the other way with the debuting Gadzhimurad Antigulov. He makes his UFC debut on a 12 fight win streak and my rule is almost always to bet on debuting Russian fighters. 

Peach Machine: Ryan Bader ($9,500), Claudia Gadelha ($9,200), Sergio Moraes ($8,700), Darren Stewart ($8,200), Gadzhimuard Antigulov ($7,700), Albert Morales ($6,500)

Bader has the unenviable task of ending the career of Noguiera. Morales has the lowest price tag so I took him. Gadelha is awesome, she should dominate. Sergio Moraes is awesome and I suspect he’ll get the submission win. Antigulov is a blind stab in the dark, and I picked Darren Stewart because I like his attributes.

UFC Fight Night 99 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 99 event in Dublin, Northern Ireland, headlined by Gegard Mousasi taking on Uriah Hall in a five-round middleweight bout on UFC Fight Pass.

Top Target: Gegard Mousasi ($9,600)

Gegard Mousasi is looking for vengeance when he steps into the Octagon on Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night 99 in Belfast. He will be looking to avenge a loss to Uriah Hall that occurred in September 2015 in Japan. Mousasi dominated the first round of their bout before being knocked out spectacularly by a spinning back kick followed by a flying knee from Hall. Both men have gone on different paths since that fight just 14 months ago.

Mousasi has scored three straight wins since then over Thales Leites, Thiago Santos and Vitor Belfort, while Hall has suffered two straight setbacks, to Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson. Mousasi is on the cusp of fighting for the title while Hall has seen his title aspirations take a major hit, and this fight will affect the future of both men at 185 pounds. This fight was put together on short notice as a replacement for a scratched main event, and it is hard to know whether both men will be fully prepared for this one. Mousasi is coming off a relatively easy win over Belfort in October while Hall was stopped, albeit likely early, by Brunson in September.

There is no question that Mousasi is the better fighter of the two, though Hall is very talented. Hall just hasn’t lived up to his expectations, and it doesn’t seem like he ever will. He just seems destined to be a fighter that is just a gatekeeper in the division, while Mousasi legitmately has a shot at getting a title shot. Mousasi is also on the last fight of his contract, so a big win gives him a lot of leverage. I don’t see Mousasi suffering the same fate that he did the first time against Hall, and this fight being a continuation of the first round between the two.

Mousasi has the highest salary on the card, but I think it is justified. I see him finishing Hall, and that makes him a good choice for your top target.

Value Target: Magomed Mustafaev ($7,900)

Magomed Mustafaev puts his 13-fight win streak on the line when he takes on Kevin Lee at UFC Fight Night 99 on Saturday. Mustafaev has scored his last two wins inside the Octagon, but he hasn’t fought since scoring a TKO win over Joe Proctor at UFC 194 in December. Meanwhile, Lee has a lot of UFC experience, compiling a 6-2 record with wins in six of his last seven fights. With Lee’s experience inside the Octagon, he comes in with a higher fantasy salary than Mustafaev, which makes Mustafaev a very solid value play.

Mustafaev has scored all 14 of his professional wins by stoppage, with ten coming by knockout and four coming by submission. Nine of those wins have come inside the first round. He is a very dangerous fighter, and has the Dagestan background that is producing a bunch of quality fighters. He also doesn’t look like a finished and polished prospect, and Lee may be in that mold. Lee is a good fighter who doesn’t take a lot of risks. He looked impressive in stopping Jake Matthews in his last fight in July, but when he has come in with a lot of confidence, it has hurt him. That was evidenced when he was stopped by Leonardo Santos on that same event where Mustafaev scored his last win.

Lee is a good wrestler with some decent striking, and he has power. Mustafaev isn’t the type of fighter he should be going to the ground with, though, as he has a nasty submission game. Mustafaev is very powerful on his feet and very good at close range and inside the clinch. Lee picks opponents apart better when he is at a distance. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Lee. Mustafaev is a quick worker, and he is very dangerous early. Dangerous enough to where a first-round finish could be expected.

With his tools, he is a very good value bet at his salary as if he wins, it’s going to be early and violent.

Target To Avoid: Artem Lobov ($7,300)

Artem Lobov is 12-12 in his professional career, among the worst records held by a current fighter on the UFC roster. He is just 1-2 in his three bouts inside the Octagon, and he is coming off his first win in August over Chris Avila. Avila is far from a UFC-caliber fighter, and Lobov had a relatively easy time with him. He won’t have the same easy time when he takes on talented Teruto Ishihara on Saturday night. Ishihara is coming off of back-to-back knockout wins in his last two fights, but against opponents no longer on the UFC roster.

Despite his record, Lobov, while not the best, may be the toughest opponent Ishihara has dealt with so far in his young UFC career. I don’t really like Lobov’s chances in this bout. Everything he is good at, Ishihara is better. He is more athletic and more powerful on the feet. Ishihara also comes from the Team Alpha Male camp, which has had a rivalry with the SBG camp, so the intensity will be there. Neither man has had to show a ground game, but I see Ishihara being better there due to the training he goes through, and the willingness to go where the action takes him.

I see this fight being a standing affair, and while Lobov is a good counterpuncher, I think he will have a hard time getting inside the four-inch reach advantage that Ishihara has. Lobov is very difficult to finish as he has only been stopped three times in his twelve losses, and only once by strikes, and that was over five years ago. I do see Ishihara finishing him, though.

To me, Lobov is the easiest fighter to avoid on this card, despite his salary being tempting when looking for an underdog to win. Don’t give into the temptation as I think it is a wrong move.

Underdog Target: Jack Marshman ($7,400)

Jack Marshman is making his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 99 on Saturday in front of a crowd that could have a lot of Welsh attendees in it. The Cage Warriors Middleweight Champion doesn’t get an easy first assignment with the UFC as he takes on Magnus Cedenblad, winner of four straight fights in the UFC. Cedenblad is 14-4 overall in his career, but after starting out with a 3-3 record, he has since gone 11-1. He has scored finishes in twelve of his 14 wins, and he uses his six-foot-three frame very well at 185 pounds.

Cedenblad has very good and crafty striking on his feet and an excellent grappling game with dangerous submissions on the mat. Marshman is primarily a striker, but he is a powerful one at that. He has twelve wins by knockout. He does have a good submission game and can catch opponents with a choke or an armbar, but Cedenblad is worlds better on the mat. Marshman mainly likes to throw inside the pocket, and he is tough to match up with in the power department. Cedenblad is not an opponent who shies away from a fist fight, and he uses his length well to his advantage.

Marshman is younger of the two and has more mileage in his career, but he is arguably the more talented of the two. That isn’t to discredit Cedenblad, who is the big betting favorite in this match-up. Marshman’s power make this fight interesting. If it goes to grappling, Cedenblad should win this fight many times over. The fight being on the feet allows for Marshman to find that powerful punch he possesses.

With his salary being low, I like Marshman as a potential upset target. If there is an underdog with a good chance to win, he has a good of a chance as anyone. I feel confident in his chances, and I like him as a darkhorse to win.

Our Line-Ups

Ryan Frederick: Gegard Mousasi ($9,600), Abdul Razak Alhassan ($9,400), Mark Godbeer ($8,000), Magomed Mustafaev ($7,900), Stevie Ray ($7,700), Jack Marshman ($7,400)

I’m going with two big favorites and four underdogs in my line-up for this card. I like Gegard Mousasi to avenge his loss to Uriah Hall. Adbul Razak Alhassan is making his UFC debut on short notice against another UFC debut in Charlie Ward, who comes from the SBG camp. Alhassan is undefeated and a powerful striker, and he has the experience edge over Ward. I like him to get a knockout, especially if this fight stays standing. For my underdogs, I have Magomed Mustafaev and Jack Marshman on my team, and I like them to get upsets in their fights as I pointed out above.

I also have Mark Godbeer and Stevie Ray on my roster. Godbeer is making his UFC debut and he is a powerful puncher, plus it is a heavyweight fight. That could end ugly in many different ways. I like it being a good ugly for Godbeer with him handing Justin Ledet his first career loss. Ray is taking a tough fight on short notice against Ross Pearson, but it is a winnable fight as Pearson seems to have peaked as a fighter. He is still very good and dangerous, but he has a knack for being in close fights that make judging hard. Ray is better at this stage and I see him getting a win by racking up a lot of strikes.

Paul Fontaine: Gegard Mousasi ($9,600), Teruto Ishihara ($8,900), Alexander Volkov ($8,100), Mark Godbeer ($8,000), Anna Almose ($7,600), Alexander Yakovlev ($7,200)

Mousasi has a high salary but I really like him to avenge his loss last year to Uriah Hall. He was dominating the fight before Hall landed what I think was a lucky shot and I don’t think lightning will strike twice. Teruto Ishihara is a good fighter and his opponent Artem Lobov is really not so that’s a no-brainer in my eyes. I was surprised to Alexander Volkov as even money here. The former Bellator champion should be able to finish the much slower Timothy Johnson , who hasn’t show much in UFC.

Mark Godbeer is making his UFC debut and I think the big heavyweight will make a good first impression by finishing Justin Ledet, who showed almost no punch defence in his UFC debut despite winning the fight. I was shocked to see Anna Elmose as a big underdog here and I think she’s a steal at $7,600. Her opponent Amanda Cooper has only 3 official UFC fights and Elmose herself only has once career loss, at bantamweight against the much bigger and heavily favored Germaine de Randamie. My last pick is Alexander Yakovlev, who I’m hoping can score an upset win over Zak Cummings, hopefully by stoppage.

Peach Machine: Gegard Mousasi ($9,600), Magnus Cedenblad ($8,800), Kyoji Horiguchi ($8,400), Kevin Lee ($8,300), Alexander Yakovlev ($7,200), Charlie Ward ($6,800)

Gegard Mousasi will NOT let Hall beat him again. He’s a lock. Horiguchi is always a lock. I’m taking Magnus Cedenblad because his name is awesome and he’s going against a terribly named opponent, Jack Marshman. That match has squisher written all over it. In Soviet Russia, fighters draft you, so I’m letting Yakolev pick me. I like Kevin Lee. He’s cute. And of course, I’m taking former Florida State QB and Heisman trophy winner AND former New York Nickerbocker, Charlie Ward.

UFC 205 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC 205 event in New York City, New York, headlined by UFC Lightweight Champion Eddie Alvarez defending against Conor McGregor on pay-per-view.

Top Target: Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($9,300)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the biggest betting favorite on the UFC 205 card as she defends the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She also has the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, but that still makes her our top target for your fantasy line-ups at UFC 205. Jedrzejczyk is the most polished striker, not only out of all womens fighters, but perhaps in the entire sport.

She racks up a lot of points with significant strikes, so that is where she will excel in getting fantasy players points. She is also a finisher, and if she finds an opening, there is no doubt she will be going for the kill. The biggest key for Kowalkiewicz is to get ahead early. Jedrzejczyk can start off slow, but she has shown to have a never-ending gas tank, and she gets much stronger the later the fight goes. Kowalkiewicz fights at a fast pace, but Jedrzejczyk can match it, and her counterstriking will slow Kowalkiewicz down.

A key to the standing battle is that Jedrzejczyk has a punishing jab, and her technique on the feet is unmatched. Jedrzejczyk also trained for this camp with American Top Team, which will be her new home, so she won’t have to adjust due to traveling from overseas. It shouldn’t affect her power or speed.

This is a bad match-up for Kowalkiewicz, but anyone going against Jedrzejczyk is going to be a bad match-up for the opponent, as Joanna is the best in the world at 115 pounds. I expect her to score a lot of points and to get a finish late, and she is definitely the top play on this fight card.

Value Target: Eddie Alvarez ($7,600)

Eddie Alvarez is the underdog as he defends the UFC Lightweight Championship against the biggest star in the sport, Conor McGregor, in the main event of UFC 205. McGregor is looking to make history in becoming the first fighter to hold titles in two weight classes at the same time, and Alvarez is looking to play the spoiler. Alvarez is going to be giving up some length and reach to McGregor, and that is going to come into play.

McGregor likes to keep his opponents on the outside where he can set up leg kicks, spinning kicks and set up his straight left hand. Alvarez fights better inside the pocket where he can start a brawl, so he is going to have to navigate himself inside that five inches of reach that McGregor has the advantage of. Alvarez has talked of how this is an easy fight, and I hope he truly doesn’t believe that, because he’s in for a rude awakening if he does. It’s easy to knock McGregor, but he may truly be the best fighter that Alvarez has fought, and that spans a lot of high-level territory. Alvarez is very quick on his feet and with his hands, and he has solid takedowns.

He may utilize a wrestling-based attack, and takedowns score a lot of fantasy points. He could end up getting into a brawl with McGregor on the feet, and both can take a lot of punishment and dish it out. We’ve never seen McGregor knocked out, nor have we Alvarez, but Alvarez has been in a lot of trouble. I expect to see McGregor use a strategy similar to the one Donald Cerrone had against Alvarez, and that would spell trouble for Alvarez.

However, this is a very winnable fight for Alvarez, and for fantasy reasons, his salary is very valuable. It really is a tough fight to pick, but if you’re looking for someone to use on your roster, Alvarez is a solid selection.

Target To Avoid: Miesha Tate ($9,100)

Miesha Tate returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship to Amanda Nunes at UFC 200 in July. Tate fights an opponent she has some familiarity with in Raquel Pennington, who she coached on The Ultimate Fighter. When you look at this fight, from an outside perspective, this looks like a rebound fight for Tate. Pennington is only 8-5 in her career. However, don’t let that record fool you.

She has won three straight fights and four of her last five, and the improvement has been very clear. She also has a style that could give Tate a lot of trouble. Pennington has some solid striking, but she tends to fight without a clear gameplan. She’s only lost to top-level opponents, and Tate is a top-level opponent. Tate is better all around, but it remains to be seen if she is over losing the championship. She is also coming back sooner than she anticipated as she was expecting to return in December.

Tate will be best served to make this a battle on the mat as her wrestling and ground game is light years ahead of Pennington. Where Pennington could give Tate fits is inside the clinch. She makes good use of dirty boxing and her elbows, and she is good at finding openings. Tate is a big favorite when it comes to fantasy value, but this fight is a lot closer on the betting odds than their salaries show. I do expect Tate to win, but Pennington is going to make her work for it.

I don’t see Tate finishing Pennington, so that takes her value down a little. With Tate having the third-highest salary on the card, without the sure thing of her getting a finish, it’s tough to justify having her on your roster. I’m saying avoid her just because of her salary, but I do think she will win this fight, but it won’t be easy.

Underdog Target: Tyron Woodley ($7,400)

Tyron Woodley is making his first defense of the UFC Welterweight Championship as he defends against Stephen Thompson on Saturday night. If you look at the betting odds and the fantasy salaries for this fight, Woodley is clearly getting no respect as it seems everyone is expecting him to lose the championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise as Woodley’s only fight in 19 months was hist first-round knockout over Robbie Lawler to win the title.

In that same time frame, Thompson has won three fights, and he has won seven straight overall to earn his title opportunity. Woodley and Thompson have completely different styles, and it makes for an interesting match-up. Woodley is a strong wrestler with heavy hands, and Thompson employs a unique karate-style striking attack. Thompson is crafty on his feet and knows how to keep a distance, and Woodley fights badly from the outside. Woodley also has a questionable gas tank, while Thompson can go a full 25 minutes.

Everything being said favors Thompson, so why should Woodley be considered an underdog target? It is because of that knockout power. Thompson is very hard to hit, and we haven’t seen his chin tested yet, but if Woodley can land that right hand, it could be lights out. Woodley also will test the wrestling of Thompson, who has improved his takedown defense, but he hasn’t been put to the test in recent fights. Woodley is also strong in the clinch, but Thompson isn’t easy to keep there.

You have to have underdogs on your roster, and honestly, the pickings are slim on this card. Woodley is going to have a tough time getting a win, but he has that equalizing right hand. He’s the best underdog target bet.

Our Line-Ups

Ryan Frederick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($9,300), Stephen Thompson ($8,800), Conor McGregor ($8,600), Chris Weidman ($8,500), Jim Miller ($7,800), Jeremy Stephens ($7,000)

I have Joanna Jedrzejczyk on my roster for all of the reasons she is my top target, and I am confident that she will finish Karolina Kowalkiewicz. I have Eddie Alvarez and Tyron Woodley as targets above, but I have their opponents, Stephen Thompson and Conor McGregor, in my line-up. I just have more confidence in them getting the win and am not taking the risks and am going for the win. I have Chris Weidman, Jim Miller and Jeremy Stephens rounding out my roster.

Finally fighting in New York will give Weidman some added confidence, and he wants an impressive showing to get that title shot. He’s going to bring a fight to Yoel Romero. Miller gets Thiago Alves debuting at lightweight, and it is a tough fight. I need underdogs on my roster, and Miller has a good chance. Stephens is the best that is left with what I have, and if he can connect on Frankie Edgar, he can finish him. I’m hoping so for fantasy sake.

Paul Fontaine: Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($9,300), Donald Cerrone ($8,900), Chris Weidman ($8,500), Belal Muhammad ($8,300), Eddie Alvarez ($7,600), Tyron Woodley ($7,400)

My top pick is the strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I believe that she is far and away the best in her division and should handle her challenger with ease, either scoring a quick KO or an extended beatdown. Either is good for a lot of points. Donald Cerrone is next up for me. I see this fight going similar to the Joanna fight in the sense that Cerrone is very prolific on his feet. If it goes to the ground he has an underrated submission game. I think that age is finally going to catch up to Yoel Romero when he gets into the Octagon with former world champion Chris Weidman, allowing the All American to score a KO win.

I’m going with Belal Muhammad as one of my picks as I think he’s one of the better guys in the division and under a lot of people’s radar. His opponent, Luque, has shown to be vulnerable to submissions in the past and Muhammad should take advantage of that. My last two picks are the other two title holders on the card, Eddie Alvarez and Tyron Woodley. Alvarez hits harder, in my opinion, than anyone Conor McGregor has faced to date and the featherweight champion has shown in the past that he’ll eat a lot of punches. Woodley just needs to catch Thompson one time and I think he can do it. I’m glad I can get the two champions in under budget and really like my team here. 

Peach Machine: Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($9,300), Frankie Edgar ($9,200), Miesha Tate ($9,100), Eddie Alvarez ($7,600), Tyron Woodley ($7,400), Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)

I love Eddie in this match up. He’s too fast AND he can take a monster beatin’. T-Wood will simply outclass Thompson. He may be an awesome kick boxer, but he’s never wrestled a Mizzou Tiger. Joanna Champion is my current favorite fighter since Hendo retired. I just named my newest dog, Miesha, so I’m going with her. Gastelum could win this match with wrestling. I think he’ll decide to do that, since getting kneed in the mouth by Cerrone is bad for business. Frankie is gonna stomp Stephens, and he’d better, since he’s being screwed on title contention.

UFC Fight Night 98 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 98 event in Mexico City, Mexico, headlined by a five-round lightweight bout between Rafael Dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson on FOX Sports 1.

Top Target: Sam Alvey ($9,100)

Sam Alvey is looking to close out a busy 2016 when he steps into the Octagon for possibly the final time this year, though who knows with him as he could fight again next month. He is fighting for the fourth time in five months as he takes on Alex Nicholson in the UFC Fight Pass Featured Prelim of UFC Fight Night 98. Alvey is 2-1 this year, but he has won two straight, both wins coming by stoppage. With 37 career bouts under his belt, he has a huge experience advantage over his opponent on Saturday, Alex Nicholson.

Nicholson fights for the third time inside the Octagon, and he is looking to score his second straight win after a knockout win over Devin Clark in June. Alvey comes into this fight as the big favorite, and for very good reason. 21 of his 28 career wins have come by stoppage, with an impressive 18 coming by knockout. All five of his UFC wins have come by stoppage, and he has only been finished twice in his career.

Alvey has a huge advantage in this fight in that he is an excellent counterpuncher, and he suckers his opponents into striking battles and picks them apart in return. He isn’t aggressive, but that will come into play as Nicholson is an aggressive fighter. Nicholson will likely be on the offensive, and that is going to spell trouble for him. With Nicholson’s wild style, it is going to leave him open for a counter, and Alvey will find that opening. Alvey is also solid in the clinch and Nicholson has nothing other than his hard hitting.

This is Alvey’s fight to lose, and he is on a solid roll right now. I expect a finish of Nicholson, and Alvey only has the third-highest salary on the card. He is my top play on this card.

Value Target: Tony Ferguson ($7,900)

Tony Ferguson has won a very impressive eight straight fights, and he is one win away from fighting for a title. He gets his first main event slot when he takes on former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos in the five-round headline bout on Saturday night. Dos Anjos is fighting for the first time since being knocked out by Eddie Alvarez in losing his lightweight title in July. Dos Anjos is the slight favorite in this fight, which is surprising given the recent success for Ferguson.

There are a lot of factors that could hinder Dos Anjos. He has left his long-time training camp to start his own camp with new coaches, and that hasn’t resulted in a lot of success for other fighters who have done that in the past. He also didn’t look all that sharp against Alvarez, and Ferguson is a much more versatile fighter. Ferguson is very unorthodox on his feet, and he is flashy and mixes everything well. He also has good takedowns and a very strong submission game. He is improving as a fighter, while at the same time, Dos Anjos looks to be regressing from his peak as a fighter.

Dos Anjos is still capable of being dangerous, but I’m not convinced he should be the favorite in this fight. That makes Ferguson have great value from a fantasy perspective in this fight. If you couple it with the fact this is a 25-minute fight, and it has every chance of going the full distance, there are more scoring opportunities. I don’t believe it will go the full distance, but I sense it going three rounds before Ferguson finds a win by submission.

The biggest key is whether Ferguson’s aggression and his tendency to get sloppy gives Dos Anjos an opening to capitalize. I like Ferguson a lot in this fight and he will be on my roster, and his salary makes him extremely valuable.

Target To Avoid: Max Griffin ($8,800)

Max Griffin is fighting for the second time inside the Octagon and he is looking to rebound from a loss in his debut when he takes on Erick Montano on Saturday night. Griffin was stopped in the third round of his UFC debut by Colby Covington, who is an excellent prospect, and he gets a less-tougher opponent in Montano. Montano did win season two of The Ultimate Fighter Latin America, but he was stopped in his first fight following the show when he was submitted by Randy Brown in September.

Both men have quick turnarounds in this fight, and that may favor Montano in the high altitude of Mexico as he trains there. Griffin is the better fighter of the two as he has solid wrestling and some good striking, but Montano is a flashy opponent who is solid at everything, but unspectacular at everything as well. Griffin will have the size advantage, but he also isn’t a good defensive wrestler, and Montano is good at takedowns.

Griffin is a big favorite in this fight and has a very high salary, and I don’t see why. Perhaps it is because he is big, strong and athletic, but he is going to have a tough time in this one. I don’t see him finishing Montano, and that should be an almost-given with a fighter that has a high salary. He may get a lackluster decision win, but that isn’t going to get you a lot of fantasy points.

There are better options at similar salaries, and with 26 fighters on this card, there is going to be fighters you have to avoid. Griffin is one of those at his price range.

Underdog Target: Beneil Dariush ($7,800)

Beneil Dariush is an interesting fighter to watch on Saturday. He has won six of his last seven fights and is currently ranked ninth in the UFC’s lightweight rankings. Yet, he finds himself as the underdog when he takes on Rashid Magomedov in a main card bout at UFC Fight Night 98. Magomedov is 19-1 in his career and the winner of twelve straight fights, including the last four inside the Octagon. He hasn’t fought in a year due to a knee injury, and cage rust is a real thing.

Magomedov has also become a more controlled fighter as he only has one finish in his last seven wins. Dariush has beaten the much-tougher competition of the two in the UFC. Magomedov is good and technical on his feet, but Dariush has more power on his feet. He is also more aggressive and is very strong in the clinch. Dariush does have good takedowns, but Magomedov is strong in defending the takedown. Magomedov was able to stay on the feet against Gilbert Burns, who is world-class at getting opponents to the mat. Dariush has been a part of Rafael Dos Anjos’ new training team, stepping away from his comfort zone at Kings MMA. I don’t think that will affect him as much as it will Dos Anjos, but it is an underlying factor.

Magomedov is a solid counterstriker, but he tends to wait until his opponent begins to engage to do anything. He has to be more aggressive against Dariush. Dariush is a crafty grappler. This is an interesting battle and a toss-up when breaking it down. Magomedov is the favorite and has the higher salary of the two, but whoever had the lower salary would have found himself as my underdog target.

If I were making a prediction, I actually think Dariush is going to win this fight, and I think he has a sneaky chance of getting a submission. At his salary, I see him as a strong underdog target to roll with.

Our Line-Ups

Ryan Frederick: Sam Alvey ($9,100), Polo Reyes ($8,900), Ricardo Lamas ($8,100), Tony Ferguson ($7,900), Beneil Dariush ($7,800), Marco Beltran ($7,700)

I’m going with Sam Alvey, Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush based on everything said above, and I really like all of their chances to score not just wins, but finishes, in their fights on Saturday night. I’m rounding out my team with Polo Reyes, Ricardo Lamas and Marco Beltran. Reyes has scored two big knockout wins in his two UFC bouts, and all six of his career wins have come by stoppage. He has been stopped in his three losses, but Jason Novelli isn’t a big finisher, and Novelli was finished in his lone UFC bout. I like Reyes’ chances to score another knockout win.

Lamas takes on Charles Oliveira in a very exciting featherweight match-up. Oliveira is taking the fight on short notice as Lamas was preparing for five rounds against BJ Penn. That will affect Oliveira, and that’s not to mention the fact he fades late. I see Lamas weathering an early attack and wearing Oliveira out for a third-round stoppage. Beltran is taking on a super late notice replacement in Joe Soto, and they’re doing a catchweight bout. Not having to cut that extra weight will be beneficial for Beltran, and while Soto is a tough out, I like his chances to win due to the short notice.

Paul Fontaine: Sam Alvey ($9,100), Marcin Held ($9,000), Rafael Dos Anjos ($8,300), Martin Bravo ($8,200), Beneil Dariush ($7,800), Felipe Arantes ($7,500)

Alvey’s M.O. is going into other countries and scoring KO wins and cutting a promo that makes him a bigger babyface than the local guy. Well he’s fighting an American here in Mexico but everything else should stay the same. Held is one of the best submission guys in all of MMA and making his UFC debut. He may have to break Diego Sanchez’ arm but he’ll make him tap. I really like Tony Ferguson …. A LOT.. but I feel he’s a bit overmatched against the former champion in Rafael Dos Anjos, who will probably score a 1st round KO.

Martin Bravo is the more accomplished of the two TUF finalists that are fighting here and should score a win. Beneil Dariush is slick and I’m thinking that he ends the UFC unbeaten record of Rashid Magomedov. My last pick is Felipe Arantes who has scored stoppages in 3 of his 5 UFC wins. He should do the same against local hero Erik Perez in Mexico City. 

Peach Machine: Sam Alvey ($9,100), Marcin Held ($9,000), Rafael Dos Anjos ($8,300), Ricardo Lamas ($8,100), Beneil Dariush ($7,800), Marco Beltran ($7,700)

RDA is going to rebound and Ferguson is going to fall. Held should be able to dispatch with Sanchez, who took a MONSTER beating at UFC 200. Lamas is going to have a war here and I like him to win by finish. Smilin’ Sam just keeps on fighting, and I keep on loving it. Dariush is a real tough guy, and is underrated. Beltran put me right at 50,000. So I took him. 

UFC 204 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC 204 event in Manchester, England, headlined by UFC Middleweight Champion Michael Bisping defending against Dan Henderson on pay-per-view.

Top Target: Mirsad Bektic ($9,700)

Mirsad Bektic is one of the rising prospects in a deep featherweight division, and he looks to remain undefeated in his career when he takes on Russell Doane in the main card opener of UFC 204 on Saturday. Doane is actually the third different opponent that Bektic has been slated to fight, and he took the fight on just five days’ notice as he looks to end his 3-fight win streak and end the undefeated mark of Bektic.

Bektic is stepping inside the Octagon for the first time since May 2015 as he has been out of action due to a torn ACL. Despite that, all of the factors leading into this fight have made Bektic the biggest betting favorite and the highest-salaried fighter on this card. Bektic has ten wins in his career, seven of which have come by stoppage. He trains with a top camp in the American Top Team camp in Florida, but his biggest key in the fight will have to be shaking off any ring rust that comes his way from being out of action for so long.

Doane has six losses in his career, three of which have seen him submitted. He’s also moving up a weight class for this fight, and with the short notice and his recent struggles, it’s hard to see him winning. It’s all about whether Bektic looks to use his strong wrestling and solid striking to go for the finish, or to play it safe and just get his feel back for being inside the Octagon and to stretch out the fight.

Either way, I see Bektic winning this fight pretty easily, and I do think he will finish Doane. He is definitely the top play of this card.

Value Target: Jimi Manuwa ($7,800)

Jimi Manuwa is also coming off a long layoff as he returns to action for the first time since UFC 191 in September 2015 when he takes on Ovince Saint Preux in a light heavyweight bout between top-ten ranked fighters. Manuwa is looking to get back on the right track as he has lost two of his last three fights after starting his career with a 14-0 record. Saint Preux is looking to rebound from a loss to Jon Jones in April where he broke his arm late in the fight, but was able to go the full 25 minutes with Jones.

Saint Preux is looking to get back into the title picture, but he has a tough draw in the form of Manuwa. Saint Preux is an imposing 205-pound fighter, but Manuwa is also a solid light heavyweight. Manuwa has the power edge between the two, and he is very good in the clinch. Manuwa also mixes his strikes better than Saint Preux, and he pressures his opponents well. Saint Preux is a more relaxed fighter, and he has good wrestling and good submissions on the mat. He isn’t as quick as Manuwa, and Manuwa’s speed may be the key difference in the fight. Manuwa has good defensive wrestling, but he isn’t particularly good on the mat. Saint Preux ending on top could lead to a lot of trouble for Manuwa.

This fight is a close one, and I like Manuwa to get the win. At his salary and being an underdog, he has very good value. He is well worth a look as a knockout win is definitely possible.

Target To Avoid: Vitor Belfort ($6,800)

It’s amazing how far Vitor Belfort’s stock has fallen in the last 18 months. In May 2015, he was challenging for the UFC Middleweight Championship. Less than one year ago, he knocked out the man challenging for that same championship in the main event of this card. Yet, Belfort finds himself as one of the biggest underdogs on the UFC 204 card with one of the lowest salaries. Belfort has definitely slowed down a lot, and he is coming off a completely dominant loss at the hands of Ronaldo Souza in May.

He is very much on the downswing, but he is still dangerous for the first round due to a powerful left hand. He has a tough match-up ahead of him in the form of Gegard Mousasi. Mousasi is a patient and technical fighter who has knockout ability as well. Mousasi also has a strong chin and good movement with his head and on his feet. Belfort comes out fast and is still technically skilled, so Mousasi will be needing to weather an early storm. Where Mousasi excels in the breakdown of this bout with Belfort is his crisp skill inside the clinch and his excellent grappling.

Belfort used to be a strong grappler, but the key words are used to be. He doesn’t have much of a ground game anymore, and is very bad when he’s found himself stuck on the bottom. I envision a scenario where Mousasi has to weather an early onslaught, but he takes Belfort down late in the first and finishes him with ground-and-pound. Belfort isn’t the conditioning machine that Mousasi is, and he will fade.

I see Mousasi getting the finish inside the first two rounds, and inside the first is more likely. I can see a lot of people picking Belfort in their line-ups due to his low salary and the fact that he is still a dangerous fighter, but I don’t think it is in anyones’ best ineterests. Avoid Belfort on this card.

Underdog Target: Dan Henderson ($7,100)

Dan Henderson is fighting for the last time in his illustrious career, and he couldn’t ask for a better sendoff at 46-years-old. He is challenging Michael Bisping for the UFC Middleweight Championship in the main event of UFC 204. A UFC belt is the only major company championship Henderson has yet to hold, and he will be looking to create magic when he enters the Octagon for the final time. Henderson holds a vicious knockout win over Bisping in July 2009 at UFC 100, and Bisping is looking for revenge and to send Henderson into the sunset on a loss.

It could end up being a magical night for Henderson, and he actually has a very decent chance to win the fight. It wouldn’t shock me at all and that is why he is my underdog target to watch. He has definitely slowed down in his skills, and his vaunted chin isn’t what it used to be. Henderson still has that deadly right hand, and if it connects, Bisping’s lights could go out once again. Bisping playing in the pocket with Henderson could be a deadly proposition, so Bisping will be looking to use his footwork to throw Henderson off balance.

Bisping is a much better fighter than he was in 2009, and Henderson has become slow and plodding and relying on his right hand in fights. Bisping is going to be mixing his strikes and looking to wear Henderson down early, and while he doesn’t have a lot of power, Bisping can still rock the old chin of Henderson. Henderson is still dangerous, and that right hand is too big of a tool to look past. I don’t expect him to win, but a knockout win wouldn’t be surprising.

At his low salary and a need for some underdogs in your line-up, Henderson has as good of a chance as the rest of fighters in the same range. I would feel comfortable putting him on your roster.

Our Line-Ups

Ryan Frederick: Mirsad Bektic ($9,700), Gegard Mousasi ($9,400), Mike Perry ($8,100), Jimi Manuwa ($7,800), Leonardo Santos ($7,600), Dan Henderson ($7,100)

I like Mirsad Bektic, Jimi Manuwa and Dan Henderson in my line-ups for the reasons I stated above, and I think Bektic gets the win while Manuwa and Henderson have solid chances. For the rest of my line-up, I have Gegard Mousasi. I have his opponent, Vitor Belfort, as the fighter to avoid, and I see Mousasi getting the win early. Two other guys in my line-up with no mentions above are Mike Perry and Leonardo Santos.

Perry has the same salary as his opponent, Danny Roberts, and when trying to pick between the two and among other fighters, I like Perry’s chances. He has knockout power, and if he can land that right hand, it could be lights out for Roberts. I admit to be taking a chance on him. Santos is unbeaten in the UFC, and he is actually the underdog to Adriano Martins. I like Santos in this fight, and he has underrated punching power. At worst, his takedowns and ground control will be a lot for Martins to handle. I like Santos in that fight.

Paul Fontaine: Gegard Mousasi ($9,400), Michael Bisping ($9,100), Ovince Saint Preux ($8,400), Danny Roberts ($8,100), Leonardo Santos ($7,600), Damian Stasiak ($7,400)

As long as Mousasi is facing a non-juiced Vitor Belfort, he should handle him pretty easily as he generally does when he faced a guy ranked lower than himself. Michael Bisping is unbeaten in England and that won’t change after Saturday night/Sunday morning. He’ll either outpoint Hendo for five rounds or surprise him with a KO like he did with Luke Rockhold. Either way, lots of points. OSP should take out hometown boy Jimi Manuwa with ease.

Danny Roberts should beat Mike Perry but I’m a little worried about that one. I had exactly $8,100 left after my first five picks and it was one of these guys so I picked the native Brit. The Leonardo Santos vs Adriano Martins fight is buried on the Fight Pass show (although it could be moved up due to the late withdrawal of Ian Entwistle) and it’s a sleeper of a great fight. I like Santos to extend his 10 fight unbeaten streak against the fellow Brazilian. Lastly, I’m going with Damian Stasiak to pull off the upset win over Davey Grant. This was another toss-up in my eyes and Stasiak seems more likely to score a win by finish so I went with him.

Peach Machine: Gegard Mousasi ($9,400), Albert Tumenov ($9,200), Ovince Saint Preux ($8,400), Danny Roberts ($8,100), Daniel Omielanczuk ($7,700), Dan Henderson ($7,100)

OSP looked good against Jones, and he’s a University of Tennessee alumni and the Vols are on a roll! Mousasi has the unenviable task of putting Belfort out to pasture. I hope he literally severs his head from his spine. Danny Roberts is a tough fighter, and really, I’d favor Mike Perry in this, but I can’t imagine Perry being OK after the hellacious war he was in a month ago with Hyun Gyu Lim. I really wanted to take Pickett instead of Omielanczuk but he would have put me 200 over, so I’m going with the potential KO option as Struve can be KO’d. Tumenov is just an awesome fighter. And my final pick is of course HENDO, because he’s my favorite of all time.

UFC Fight Night 96 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight 96 in Portland, Oregon, headlined by John Lineker vs. John Dodson on FOX Sports 1.

Before we get into it, though, DraftKings made some changes to Fantasy MMA this week that come into effect on this card. Line-ups will now consist of six fighters instead of five. Line-ups will still have a salary cap of $50,000, so overall salaries will be lower.

A new points system was introduced as well, with significant strikes getting 0.5 points, advances on the mat getting 3 points, takedowns getting 5 points, guard reversals and sweeps getting 5 points, and knockdowns getting 10 points.

Wins inside the first round are now worth 90 points, inside the second round worth 70 points, inside the third round worth 45 points, inside the fourth and fifth rounds worth 40 points, and decision wins now worth 30 points.

Top Target: Louis Smolka ($9,400)

Louis Smolka comes into UFC Fight Night 96 riding an impressive four-fight win streak with three finishes in that span. He is 5-1 overall in the UFC, and he is on the brink of breaking into the title picture with another win. He was scheduled to fight Sergio Pettis, but Pettis pulled out due to injury, and Smolka now fights late replacement Brendan Moreno, who is on the current season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Moreno has already been defeated on the show, but still gets a UFC shot at just 22-years-old. Moreno is a tall flyweight, but he is still raw and needs a lot of seasoning, and a debut against Smolka on short notice is a tough task. Smolka has grown into a more complete fighter since coming into the UFC, and he is an aggressive, yet smart, fighter. He has good striking and excellent submissions. He will be looking to take Moreno down, and he has excellent ground-and-pound. At a $9,400 salary, Smolka has the highest salary on the card, but with the changes in the scoring system, he is the top play on the card.

I expect him to finish Moreno in the first round, but even if that doesn’t happen, I don’t see it lasting much longer than that. Roll with Smolka as your top play.

Value Target: John Lineker ($8,100)

John Lineker is in his second straight main event as he takes on John Dodson. Both men have the same salary at $8,100, but I like Lineker’s value more there. He is one of the hardest hitting fighters at 135 pounds, and we have all seen his finishing abilities. He also has excellent overall skills and is a threat to anyone in the division. Dodson has the speed edge over Lineker, but if Lineker can connect, even Dodson will go down.

Dodson is a range fighter as he uses his speed to keep a distance, but he isn’t a particularly great striker. He can finish opponents when he has them in trouble, but Lineker has a chin. Dodson would be best served keeping Lineker out of the pocket and looking to land the perfect punch, but Dodson’s speed starts to play with his cardio, and he has been known to gas out in fights. The betting odds favor Dodson, and this is a perfect set-up for Lineker. This is a tough fight to predict on how it will go, whether it goes the distance or someone scores a finish. The odds of a finish are higher for Lineker, and he does have good takedowns should Dodson pressure him in the clinch. Dodson won’t wanna go strike-for-strike with Lineker.

I like Lineker to win this fight and I think his value is excellent at his salary.

Target To Avoid: Alex Oliveira ($7,200)

With the new line-up rules of six fighters on your roster, it is hard to wanna avoid some lower-level salaried fighters. If you are looking to pass up one fighter on this card, I recommend that being Alex Oliveira. Oliveira is a skilled fighter, without question, and he has a good 4-2 record in the UFC. He has bounced between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, and after fighting at 170 pounds for his last two fights, he is going back down to 155 pounds for Saturday.

He has a tough task in front of him in the form of Will Brooks, the former Bellator Lightweight Champion making his second Octagon appearance. Brooks won a decision over Ross Pearson in his first UFC fight, a bout he took on short notice. Brooks now has had a full training camp to prepare for this fight, and he has shown to be one of the best 155-pound fighters in the world. Brooks likes to take his opponents down, but he is a quality striker as well. Oliviera has some talent, but Brooks’ skill should be the difference in this fight.

I don’t like Oliveira to score the win, and with this new scoring system, a win is very valuable. I recommend avoiding Oliveira, especially after him missing weight.

Underdog Target: Jonathan Wilson ($7,500)

Even with the new six-fighter system, you still need some underdogs to come through and score wins if you wanna place in the money in these contests. I like Jonathan Wilson as an underdog with the potential for a finish victory. Wilson will be taking on Ion Cutelaba on Saturday as both look to bounce back from knockout losses in their last fights.

It was the first loss for Wilson, ending his perfect 7-0 record. In those seven wins, six have come by knockout for Wilson, and many of those have come inside the first round. He is a powerful striker with good speed and good takedown defense, but he has shown to be a one-round fighter for most of his career. He got tired quickly in the second round before being finished in his last fight. However, for that one round, he is very dangerous, especially at range with his left hand.

I like Wilson at his salary as Cutelaba may be overmatched in this one.

Our Line-Ups

Ryan Frederick: Louis Smolka ($9,400), Will Brooks ($9,000), John Lineker ($8,100), Nate Marquardt ($8,000), Andre Fili ($7,700), Jonathan Wilson ($7,500)

I have Louis Smolka, John Lineker and Jonathan Wilson on my roster with my reasons stated above as I like all three to get wins. Rounding out my team is Will Brooks, Nate Marquardt and Andre Fili. Brooks is going to win his fight against Alex Oliveira, and there is extra motivation there for Brooks as he was visibly upset about Oliveira missing weight. I think it motivates him to a finish.

Nate Marquardt was on the first UFC card in Portland, and he knocked out Demian Maia in less than a minute. It is a perfect spot for him to bounce back against Tamdan McCrory. Andre Fili is taking a tough fight against Hacran Dias on short notice, but it is his chance to break out with a solid performance. Dias missed weight and Fili is a sneaky pick to get a win.

Paul Fontaine: Louis Smolka ($9,400), Walt Harris ($8,800), John Lineker ($8,100), Nate Marquardt ($8,000), Cody East ($7,900), Jonathan Wilson ($7,500)

Smolka is terribly underrated. Dude is 11-1 with the only loss coming by split decision  He’s also got KO power at flyweight. Jump on this dude. “The Big Ticket” Walt Harris can KO anyone with one punch and he’s going to turn Shamil’s lights out when the big Russian goes in for a takedown. I’ve gotta go with Lineker in the main event. That fight could end early or they could go balls to the wall for five rounds. Either way, lot of points unless Dodson finishes him early which I don’t think will happen.

Nate The Great’s best days are behind him but he still can knock people out, as evidenced by his finish win over CB Dollaway. McCrory is vulnerable to getting hit by that kind of shot that floored CB and we’re getting a good price. Cody East is like Walt Harris in that he usually wins by finish and it’s usually early. This time he’s up against Curtis Blaydes, a wrestler. If he catches him early, it’s over and that’s what I think will happen. Lastly, I’m going with Jonathan Wilson, who lost to unbeaten Luis Henrique da Silva in his last fight. He should rebound here with his first UFC win and send Ion Cutelaba back to Moldova to fight in regionals.

Peach Machine: Louis Smolka ($9,400), Will Brooks ($9,000), Curtis Blaydes ($8,300), John Dodson ($8,100), Andre Fili ($7,700), Zak Ottow ($7,300)

Dodson is too fast, and Lineker is slow. The Magician will win and probably drag it out for 5 rounds. POINTS! Brooks is awesome and Oliveira is on his way out. Fili is a sleeper pick. Same with Ottow. I love Smolka, as in, I want to marry him. He’s also an excellent fighter. Blaydes is a pick against East. I think he gets the KO.

UFC Fight Night 95 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight 95 in Brasilia, Brazil, headlined by Cris Cyborg vs. Lina Lansberg on FOX Sports 1.

TOP TARGET: Cris Cyborg ($13,000)

Cyborg headlines her first UFC event when she takes on newcomer Lansberg in a 140-pound catchweight bout. This is one of the most obvious picks when it comes to daily fantasy, but Cyborg also commands the highest salary I can ever remember at $13,000.

She is the toughest female fighter in the world, the hardest hitting, and the most feared. She has won 17 straight (15 by KO) and had one overturned due to a drug test failure. She hasn’t gone the distance in almost eight years. The biggest hurdle for her has been the extremely tough weight cut, and really, 140 pounds isn’t where she should be fighting. As long as her energy isn’t completely drained from the cut, Lansberg is just a sacrifical lamb. Cyborg also has more time to rehydrate, which will be to her benefit.

Lansberg only has seven career MMA fights, but a lot of professional kickboxing experience. She has won six straight with four finished by stoppage. She is older than Cyborg, and she has a good skillset, but this is a tall order. It goes without saying, but Cyborg is clearly the favorite in this fight, and definitely the top target on this card.

Her salary is going to make it hard to put together a quality lineup as I expect a lot of favorites on this card to win. If you can fit her in, Cyborg is the top play.

VALUE TARGET: Rani Yahya ($9,300)

Yahya will be looking to score his fourth straight win when he takes on Michinori Tanaka in a prelim bout. Tanaka is looking to score his second straight win after getting a split decision over Joe Soto at January’s UFC 195. This will only be Tanaka’s second fight in a two-year span as he was out of action for over a year prior to the Soto fight due to a drug test failure.

Tanaka comes from the Team Alpha Male camp, and he has solid striking. Yahya is a hard-nosed veteran of the sport and has good all-around skills, but he excels in his grappling. Where he gets into trouble at times is his willingness to strike, and that will cost him against Tanaka. He should be looking to take Tanaka down and use his submission game. He has good scrambling, but he excels in top control constantly looking for chokes.

Yahya is actually the betting favorite in this fight, though Tanaka has the higher fantasy value. That makes Yahya a very solid value play at his salary. He may not outstrike or outwrestle Tanaka, but he should be able to get the better of him on the mat. Tanaka had a very close fight with Soto, a fight that he probably should have lost, and Yahya has been impressive lately. Also of note: 17 of Yahya’s 22 career wins have come by submission.

If this fight goes to the ground, Tanaka has some big work ahead of him. Yahya’s $9,300 salary is very interesting, and in a night where a lot of favorites will likely win, go with the hometown guy. Yahya is a solid play.

TARGET TO AVOID: Antonio Silva ($7,900)

This feels like an obvious pick, but Silva is definitely the fighter to most avoid on this card. You can make a very good case that he shouldn’t even be fighting at this stage of his career as he has taken way more punishment than you like to see a fighter take. Silva only has one win in his last seven fights and his losses have been bad. Silva has nine career losses: eight by knockout.

In losing five of his last seven, SIlva has been knocked out in the first round in all of those fights. He doesn’t have the chin to withstand the punishment anymore, not to mention he is a heavyweight where the hardest hitters lie. He also gets one of the hardest hitters in the division in Nelson. Nelson has been struggling lately as he is just 2-6 in his last eight fights. Unlike, Silva, Nelson has only been finished once during that streak.

Nelson has fallen in love with the right hand as he has become one-dimensional in the latter stages of his career. That right hand is vicious though and can knock out just about anyone when it lands. Silva would be best served at using good footwork and movement as Nelson is flat-footed, but Silva’s big chin is a target that Nelson is going to exploit. Silva is going to sleep when it lands, and he is just too slow at this stage of his career.

I don’t see Silva getting out of the first round without going to sleep, and if that happens, I hope that it will be the last time that it happens. Silva is the most avoidable target on this card, even more than Lansberg.

UNDERDOG TARGET: Gregor Gillespie ($9,000)

Gillespie is making his UFC debut in the opening bout of the show, so it is no surprise that he is an underdog as he takes on Glaico Franca. However, Gillespie is a great underdog target at his $9,000 salary. Gillespie enters the UFC with an undefeated professional record at 7-0 with six wins coming by knockout or submission. Gillespie is an NCAA Champion and four-time All-American in wrestling, and he trains with a great camp under the leadership of striking coach Mark Henry, who works with a lot of top UFC fighters.

Gillespie is like any fighter with a strong wrestling background, working on developing his striking but has superior wrestling to back him up if he gets into trouble. He also has solid submission skills. Gillespie has a tough test in Franca, who took the fight on short notice as an injury replacement for Joaquim Silva. Franca is a big lightweight with a lot of experience in his career, though he has just two appearances inside the Octagon.

Franca dropped his most recent bout against the tough James Vick, a fight where the pressure brought by Vick was too much for Franca. Gillespie would be best served going for takedowns in close range as Franca is the more gifted striker, but Gillespie has the wrestling background to control this fight on the mat. Gillespie is a finisher, but Franca has only been finished once in his career.

Gillespie is the underdog, but I really like his chances in this fight. He is a very good underdog target on this card.

SURPRISE TARGET: Gilbert Burns ($9,800)

Burns is still one of the brightest prospects in the UFC’s lightweight division as he looks to score his second straight win when he takes on fellow Brazilian Michel Prazeres in the final prelim bout of the card. Burns started his career with a perfect 11-0 record before suffering his first loss last November. He bounced back with a first-round submission win over Lukasz Sajewski in July. Burns talked about how much the loss affected him, and he is committed to get back to his winning ways.

Burns is one of the most-gifted submission fighters in the sport, and he has scored eight of his twelve wins by submission, but has also scored three by knockout. Prazeres has won two straight fights against low-level competition, and he gets a tough opponent in Burns. Prazeres is a thick lightweight with a lot of power, but he also carries a lot of muscle on his frame, and it affects him late in his conditioning. Burns will look to take advantage of that, and he has really solid striking skills.

Prazeres is tough from the top on the mat, but he doesn’t have the overall submission game that Burns does. A late thing to keep in mind is that Prazeres missed weight, so that is another plus advantage for Burns. I expect Burns to negate Prazeres’ main attack, and I don’t think Prazeres’ cardio will be able to keep up the pace. I’m looking at Burns scoring a late submission as he is too good on the ground, and he’ll be able to beat Prazeres on the feet.

Burns should be a surprise in the sense that I expect a finish in this fight.

OUR LINEUPS —

RYAN FREDERICK: Roy Nelson ($11,500), Thiago Santos ($11,400), Rani Yahya ($9,300), Gregor Gillespie ($9,000), Luan Chagas ($8,800)

I’m not taking Cyborg in my lineup. I want to, but her salary makes it hard, and while I think she gets a quick finish, I also think Nelson and Santos get first-round finishes. I like the combo of them over just Cyborg when it comes to trying to maximize my points. Silva doesn’t have a chin, and Nelson has that big right hand which I think will put Silva to go to sleep.

Santos has a favorable match-up against Eric Spicely, and Santos’ only loss in his last five fights has come to Gegard Mousasi. I like Santos to bounce back in a major way against an overmatched Spicely. Yahya is a surprise underdog, but he performs well, and Tanaka is a beatable opponent. With two major salaries in my lineup, I have to take chances, and I like Yahya.

My last fighter is Luan Chagas. He takes on Erick Silva, who has had a disappointing UFC career. I’m honestly not too confident in Chagas’ chances, but Silva has been proven beatable. I like Chagas’ chances better than any other fighter at similar salaries.

PAUL FONTAINE: Cris Cyborg ($13,000), Michel Prazeres ($9,600), Rani Yahya ($9,300), Jussier Formiga ($9,200), Mike De La Torre ($8,900)

If I could figure out a way to pick five fighters and somehow get Cyborg on my team, I was gonna do it. And best of all, I think everyone on my team has a better than even chance of winning. Cyborg is going to score a first round finish; we all know it. If not for a decision loss to the very tough Kevin Lee, Michel Prazeres would be on a five fight win streak. I think he will grind out an upset win over Burns. Yahya will have an experience advantage, a likely size advantage, and home field advantage when he takes on Tanaka. That all adds up to a win in my book. 

Jussier Formiga is on the short list of top flyweights in the world and I’m surprised that he comes at a lower salary than his opponent here. He’s a steal at this price for me. My last pick is Mike De La Torre, a world class jiu-jitsu guy. His last time in Brazil he spoiled it for the hometown boy with a first round KO and I’m looking for a repeat performance here. 

PEACH MACHINE: Roy Nelson ($11,500), Dustin Ortiz ($10,200), Paul Felder ($9,700), Rani Yahya ($9,300), Mike de la Torre ($8,900)

Last week was bad for everyone, but I’m confident that I can rebound successfully and get in the money tonight. Nelson is an expensive pick but I’m taking him because you’re guaranteed a KO, and Cyborg is too expensive. I like Mike de la Torre over Pepe. I’ve never been impressed by Pepe and his hair makes me mad.

Paul Felder has been facing the top of the heap, as has Trinaldo, but I like Felder here to sneak out an upset win. Dustin Ortiz is tough and I usually take him when he’s on a card. Yahya has been successful recently and I expect that to continue. Play this lineup!

UFC 203 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

UFC returns to pay-per-view this weekend as the company travels to Cleveland, OH, for the very first time for UFC 203 on Saturday. The event is headlined by a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout as champion Stipe Miocic defends against challenger Alistair Overeem.

Also, you may have also heard of another significant bout as CM Punk makes his debut against Mickey Gall.

Below are fighters to target when setting your fantasy line-ups for the event.

TOP TARGET

Stipe Miocic ($10,000)

Stipe Miocic is making his first title defense when he defends the UFC Heavyweight Championship against Alistair Overeem in the main event of UFC 203 on Saturday. Miocic won the championship by knocking out Fabricio Werdum at UFC 198 in May, going into the enemy territory of Brazil and getting the biggest win of his career. Miocic now makes his first title defense in his hometown of Cleveland, Ohio, and he comes in with a ton of confidence.

Miocic has won three straight fights and six of his last seven while Overeem earns his title shot on the heels of four straight wins. Overeem disappointed early in his UFC career, but he has earned his shot at getting the belt out of the hands of Miocic.

This is a tough match-up to predict as both men are equally close in skillsets. Miocic is the better pure boxer of the two and has a ton of power in his hands, but Overeem has more technique on his feet with his kickboxing. Overeem has punishing kicks and knees that end fights, and Miocic is going to need to be light on his feet and use a lot of movement. Miocic is the better wrestler of the two should he choose to go that route, but Overeem has good takedown defense and is good at getting back to his feet.

I expect Overeem to be on the attack of the legs of Miocic with kicks and to keep enough distance to negate Miocic’s strong counterpunching game. Miocic is very durable and has shown a stronger conditioning game than Overeem has. Any time Overeem has been past the second round, he has slowed considerably. He has been lucky his opponents slowed quicker than him. That won’t happen with Miocic.

I expect Overeem to give Miocic some trouble but for Miocic to start coming on after the first round. Either man can win by knockout, but I see the hometown crowd giving Miocic a lot of confidence and him feeding off of that en route to a win inside of three rounds. Miocic is my top target on this tough card.

VALUE TARGET

Joanne Calderwood ($9,500)

Joanne Calderwood meets Jessica Andrade in a high-level strawweight battle that will kick off the main card of UFC 203 on Saturday. Both ladies are strong, high-volume strikers and both looked super impressive in their most recent wins. This will be Andrade’s second time fighting at 115 pounds while Calderwood goes back down to 115 pounds after fighting her most recent bout at 125 pounds.

It was Calderwood’s first full camp with Tristar and she looked much improved and more confident having the better coaching staff behind her. Andrade is short for the division, but she has a ton of power and has shown devastating finishing abilities at both womens’ weight classes in the UFC.

A big difference between the two is Andrade starts out fast and slows down while Calderwood is a slow starter who comes on late. If Calderwood has a slow start, Andrade can make her pay early. Andrade mixes her attack to the head and body well, and she goes right after opponents.

Calderwood is a solid kickboxer and likes to work in the clinch, and her kicks and knees come into factor in a grueling bout. Calderwood is also a good wrestler and has solid submission skills. Andrade has been finished in four of her five career losses, two each by submission and knockout. More importantly, all of Andrade’s UFC losses have seen her stopped.

Calderwood is the slight underdog in this fight, but I see her having more tools to win this fight out of the two women. Calderwood is going to have to survive an early attack from Andrade, but the later this fight goes, the more it favors Calderwood. She scores a lot of points in fantasy and is a sneaky pick for a late finish, and her salary makes her a very good value pick.

DO NOT TARGET

CM Punk ($8,000)

There are a multitude of reasons to avoid CM Punk on your fantasy team for this weekend’s card. I think he’s going to do better than a lot of people think he is, but it is still a big risk, and his low salary reflects that. He is making his professional debut, at 37-years-old, coming off of years of his body being beaten up in pro wrestling.

The fact that he is debuting 21 months after his signing and coming off of two surgeries isn’t a great sign either. He has a top training camp and top coaching staff behind him, so that is going to play a big factor.

Everything is pointing to him not doing so well, and that is where I think he will surprise some people. Everyone watching his reality show has seen the holes in his game, but don’t let that be a true reflection of where he stands today as the show isn’t going to show everything for a number of reasons. As inexperienced as he is, Mickey Gall is a real opponent.

He has just two professional fights, both wins, and while he is a raw prospect, he has the ability and he has done everything to show that he would eventually make it to the UFC, but he is there quicker than he should have been because they needed an opponent for Punk, and he was in the right place at the right time. Punk may actually surprise some people and he could sneak out a win as while some should think he has all that pressure on him, he really should have no pressure on him at all.

There really isn’t much for him to lose because everyone expects him to lose, and everything for him to gain if he is better than people expect. For fantasy reasons, with Punk being in his first career fight, I don’t recommend playing him at all unless you want a Hail Mary pick. This is a very interesting situation, though, to say the least.

UNDERDOG TARGET

Travis Browne ($8,700)

Travis Browne makes a quick turnaround on short notice as he looks to avenge one of the losses in his career when he takes on Fabricio Werdum in the co-main event of UFC 203. Browne is coming off of being finished in the first round by Cain Velasquez at UFC 200 in July, and he steps in on short notice as a replacement for Ben Rothwell.

Browne and Werdum fought in a five-round bout in April 2014 that was dominated by Werdum, who won by unanimous decision. That was Werdum at his best, and now he is coming off of him being at his worst when he lost by first-round knockout, losing the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Neither man has been terribly active in the 29 months since their first fight as Browne has fought just four times and Werdum just three. There are a lot of factors to show that Werdum may be done. He looked different in his bout with Stipe Miocic in May, looking like another man than the one who won the championship. Perhaps that has to do with more stringent drug testing, or other factors coming into play such as Werdum getting older.

Browne has the power to finish Werdum with one shot, much like Miocic did. Werdum was happy to engage with Browne in their first bout, and that shook Browne, who didn’t look like he did prior to that fight. Both men have lost a step in recent times, but they are also fighting much quicker than their recent schedules have.

The short notice, in my opinion, actually favors Browne. I think Werdum’s chin may be done as it has been cracked a lot, and I see Werdum wanting to engage with Browne on the feet. Browne has one of the lower salaries on the card, and you have to pick at least one big underdog on every event. Browne is a good one and I see him as my top underdog target.

SURPRISE TARGET

Brad Tavares ($9,800)

Brad Tavares fights for the first time since May 2015 as he returns to the Octagon to take on Caio Magalhaes in a preliminary bout at UFC 203. Tavares has been battling injuries that have forced him from fights since his last fight, but he gets an opponent who has also been out for a while as Magalhaes hasn’t fought since July 2015, but his inactivity has been due to suspensions and injuries.

Tavares was actually a rising middleweight who found himself in the top 15 rankings after going 7-1 in his first eight UFC bouts, but he has since lost three of his last four, including being knocked out by Robert Whittaker in 44 seconds in his last fight.

This is a great match-up for him as Magalhaes is an opponent who cuts a lot of weight and it shows in his performances. He comes out aggressive but is unable to keep up the pace for very long while Tavares has excellent conditioning. Magalhaes also telegraphs his takedown attempts too easily and Tavares has strong takedown defense.

In fact, the only opponent who hasn’t had trouble taking Tavares down has been Yoel Romero, and he is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. Tavares has solid striking, mixing kicks with knees and solid jabs and punches. Tavares also has good takedowns of his own. Magalhaes is going to have to hit him with a hard shot early, but Magalhaes also has a questionable chin.

Tavares is in big need of a win, and I think he gets the job done here, and a first-round finish is always there. I like his chances for a surprise finish with a lot of points being scored.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Mickey Gall ($11,400), Jessica Eye ($10,100), Stipe Miocic ($10,000), Joanne Calderwood ($9,500), Travis Browne ($8,700)

Mickey Gall has his chance to make a name for himself at the expense of CM Punk, and I think he’s too good of a pick to pass up, even at his salary. If he is going to win, and I think he will, I think it will be by a finish and in the first round.

Jessica Eye is coming in with her back against the wall, but she has a ton of confidence fighting in front of her hometown crowd, and she fights a favorable opponent. She is going to bounce back in a big way in Cleveland.

Stipe Miocic also has a lot of confidence fighting in front of the Cleveland crowd, and him and Alistair Overeem are going to have a battle. Miocic will land a lot of punches and some takedowns and finish the fight and retain his championship.

Joanne Calderwood has good value at her salary and I see her finishing Jessica Andrade after wearing her down after the first five minutes.

My last pick is Travis Browne. I’m not sold that Fabricio Werdum is the same fighter that he was when Browne and him first fought, and I think his chin is done. Browne is big and hard with his punches, and I think he can finish Werdum.

PAUL FONTAINE- Yancy Medeiros ($10,500), Stipe Miocic ($10,000), Caio Magalhaes ($9,600), Michael McBride ($9,200), Travis Browne ($8,700)

Medeiros is very underrated and I think he’s going to have a lot more power at welterweight where he’ll be fighting for at the first time in UFC. He had fought as high as 185 in Strikeforce and had KO power at that weight. I look for him to finish Sean Spencer since he has his back against the wall, having lost 2 of 3.

Miocic is a killer and will have the hometown crowd behind him. He should KO Alistair Overeem in fairly short order. Caio Magalhaes is a beast in more ways than one and he’s going to blitz Brad Tavares, who hasn’t fought in 19 months and has only one win in the last 2 1/2 years.

Michael McBride makes his UFC debut with all of his career wins coming by submission. Nik Lentz grappling style leaves him vulnerable to getting caught and I’m going with the newcomer to score the upset here.

My last pick is Travis Browne. I think the former champion Werdum is coming back too soon after getting KO’d by Miocic. At 39 years old it can’t be easy for him to come back from that and Browne should enter the title picture with a win over Werdum. 

PEACH MACHINE- Drew Dober ($11,200), Jessica Eye ($10,100), Urijah Faber ($9,700), Alistair Overeem ($9,600), CM Punk ($8,000)

I’m not convinced Miocic is the champ. He got lucky against Werdum and I don’t think he’ll get lucky against Overeem. Like I wrote about in my column a few days ago, Punk is playing opossum. Eye is really tough as is Correira but Eye needs the win badly here.

Faber is woefully underrated in my book. Sure he’s never won the big one, but this isn’t the big one. I’ve been impressed by Dober in his last few outings. I expect him to cruise here. I’ll be live at the event, and if Punk wins, I may crash the cage with my posse and call him out. Look for that.

UFC Fight Night 93 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon returns to Germany on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 93 at the Barclaycard Arena in Hamburg, Germany, with the full card airing on UFC Fight Pass. The event is headlined by a five-round heavyweight battle between former UFC Heavyweight Champions as Andrei Arlovski takes on Josh Barnett.

Below are our fighters to target when setting your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

TOP TARGET

Alexander Gustafsson ($12,500)

Alexander Gustafsson is making his return to the Octagon for the first time in nearly a year as he takes on Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 93 card. Gustafsson was last seen dropping a close split decision to Daniel Cormier at UFC 192 in October in his second chance at becoming the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion.

The road back to a title shot starts for Gustafsson in Germany as he looks to bounce back from having lost three of his last four fights. Blachowicz represents a step back in competition for Gustafsson, and it set up as a bounce back fight for him.

Blachowicz is not an opponent to take lightly, though, as he sports a 19-5 career record, but he has lost two of his last three fights. Gustafsson is the superior fighter, but he has also talked about retirement after recent struggles.

Anytime a fighter has retirement on the mind, you have to wonder how much time they have left. I don’t believe that Gustafsson is close to leaving the sport, and I see having the nearly year-long layoff being a benefit to him. Gustafsson is quick on his feet and works best as a pressure fighter, and Blachowicz isn’t an opponent that is going to bring the fight to him.

Blachowicz is slow on his feet and has the tendency to be a boring fighter, and lesser opponents will fall to him due to his style. Gustafsson’s striking and movement will be key here as well as shaking off any ring rust that may creep in. He’s far too talented to fall to an opponent like Blachowicz.

Blachowicz has only been stopped twice in his career while Gustafsson has stopped 13 opponents in his career. Gustafsson commands one of the highest salaries ever for an MMA fighter on DraftKings since its inception, but despite that, he is the top target on this card as I expect him to get a second-round finish of Blachowicz. He is worth his salary.

VALUE TARGET

Josh Barnett ($9,700)

Josh Barnett is headlining his second UFC event since making his return to the company in 2013 as the former UFC Heavyweight Champion takes on another former UFC Heavyweight Champion in the form of Andrei Arlovski for five rounds in Hamburg.

Barnett is a slight betting favorite heading into the fight but both men have the same salaries, which makes Barnett a more valuable target between the two. Barnett is looking to rebound from being submitted for the first time in his career when he fell to Ben Rothwell in January. He was in control of the fight before being caught by Rothwell in the second round, and it derailed Barnett’s run towards getting a title shot.

Arlovski himself was very close to securing a title shot, but he has lost two straight fights by knockout to Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem, who fight next week for the championship. Arlovski is the better pure striker on the feet, but where Barnett will excel in this match-up is when he closes the distance and gets into a grappling battle with Arlovski.

Barnett does excellent work in the clinch between switching up elbow strikes with knee strikes. While Arlovski is an excellent wrestler, Barnett will be looking to wear him down in the clinch and open him up for being taken down. Barnett is world-class on the mat with his submissions, and he has very strong ground-and-pound to compliment his suffocating top control.

Arlovski still can land a punch, but he doesn’t pack the power he used to against fighters with strong chins, and Barnett has a very strong chin.

Arlovski has gotten hit a lot in his career, and his chin has taken a beating lately, and Barnett still possesses a strong right hand. This fight being 25 minutes opens it up for more scoring opportunities, but I don’t see it going past two rounds, and Barnett winning by TKO inside the first two rounds. Barnett should have a higher salary, but with just a $9700 salary, it gives him excellent value.

DO NOT TARGET

Leandro Silva ($9,200)

Leandro Silva is looking to get back into the win column on Saturday when he takes on Rustam Khabilov in the opening bout of the UFC Fight Night 93 card. Silva is actually taking this fight on shorter notice as an injury replacement. This is a dangerous fight for Silva to be taking on short notice, and I’m actually surprised he doesn’t have a much lower fantasy salary compared to how big of an underdog he is in the betting odds.

Silva is a decent striker but he tends to only throw one strike at a time and will get outstruck by a superior opponent. Khabilov is a superior opponent who holds a lot of power in his hands. He also mixed up his striking more in his most recent win over Chris Wade.

Khabilov had regressed a little as visa problems have prevented him from coming to the US and working under Greg Jackson, though he will be in his corner on Saturday. Silva doesn’t have the grappling to handle Khabilov, who had gotten a reputation for his impressive suplexes. Silva is not a bad wrestler by any means, but he doesn’t match up well against Khabilov.

There is nothing in this fight that Silva is better in than Khabilov, and that makes this a tough match-up for him. Silva is one fighter on this fight card I wouldn’t want in my line-up, and I don’t suggest readers using him as well. He is a must-avoid on this fight card.

UNDERDOG TARGET

Ilir Latifi ($9,100)

Ilir Latifi is taking on Ryan Bader in an interesting light heavyweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night 93 on Saturday. Latifi comes into the fight having won three straight fights and five of his last six overall, and he is sneakily climbing the rankings of the 205-pound division.

Bader has been a long-time contender but has never fought for the title. He was in a title eliminator bout in his last fight, but was starched in just over a minute by Anthony Johnson. It was the end of Bader’s five-fight win streak and he looks to start a new streak on Saturday. Latifi is a power puncher, maybe not having quite the same power as Johnson, but certainly way up there at 205 pounds.

He was five wins by knockout, but also has seen four wins come by submission. Inside the Octagon, three of Latifi’s five wins have come by knockout, all three in the first round, and two in less than a minute. Bader has five career losses, three of which have come by knockout, and all five of his losses have seen him finished.

Bader is the strong betting favorite in this bout, and it makes Latifi one of the biggest underdog targets on the fight card. Bader has turned into more of a striker these days, and he isn’t going to match the power of Latifi. If Bader goes back to his wrestling roots, well, Latifi is a powerhouse wrestler who has never been taken down in his UFC career.

Bader would be best served keeping the fight at a distance as Latifi is powerful in close range. Bader’s suspect chin is a dangerous target that Latifi is going to look to exploit, and Bader’s best chance to win is to drag this fight into the later rounds where Latifi’s cardio comes into question. It’s a tough fight to pick, but if you are looking for the perfect underdog target to add to your line-up, Latifi’s salary is perfect for your team. He can finish this fight quickly.

SURPRISE TARGET

Jack Hermansson ($9,800)

Jack Hermansson finds himself as our surprise target for the card due to the fact he is making his UFC debut and fans may not know what to expect. He signed with the UFC on the heels of eight straight wins, and he is a former Cage Warriors Fight Championship Middleweight Champion. He is 13-2 overall in his career with twelve finishes in his career, and he is an excellent addition to the UFC roster. He makes his Octagon debut against Scott Askham, who fights for the UFC for the fifth time.

Askham has rotated wins-and-losses in his four previous appearances, with both wins coming by first-round knockout and both losses seeing him drop decisions. History says Askham is due for a loss in this bout, but he is a tough match-up here for Hermansson

 It’s a close fight on paper and Askham has that previous experience inside the Octagon. Askham is solid on his feet and very rangy at six-foot-three, and he will have some reach on Hermansson. Hermansson is more unorthodox on his feet and he is mainly a puncher while Askham mixes his strikes well. Askham has sharp elbows at well, but he isn’t as flashy as Hermansson. Hermansson also has a solid takedown game when he chooses to mix it in, and he has solid submission skills.

Askham has never been finished in his career but tends to fade late and give up decisions. This fight will probably be a back-and-forth affair and the longer it goes, the more it gives Hermansson the edge. I don’t see him finishing Askham, but if there is a time and place and opponent to hand Askham his first stoppage loss, it will be Hermansson. He is a sneaky surprise target and has very solid value as well.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Alexander Gustafsson ($12,500), Josh Barnett ($9,700), Scott Askham ($9,600), Ilir Latifi ($9,100), Christian Colombo ($9,000)

Alexander Gustafsson is my top target this week, and I’m doing everything I can to have him on my roster. I do expect him to get a finish of Jan Blachowicz inside of two rounds, and I see him racking up over 100 points, which is what you hope for when selecting your fantasy line-ups.

With his $12,500 salary, it leaves me little room for the remaining four line-up slots, so I am looking to take a couple of chances. Josh Barnett is on my team as I see him being excellent value and his salary is reasonable. I sense he’s finishing Andrei Arlovski and has a good chance at getting to the 100 point mark.

Scott Askham is a slight underdog to Jack Hermansson, but his UFC experience is key and I am going with him as he is a finisher though Hermansson is a very tough match-up for him. Ilir Latifi has power and Ryan Bader can be finished, and he has a very great salary for the match-up.

Latifi at $9,100 is very hard to pass up given Bader’s chin. Christian Colombo fills out my line-up. He is making his UFC debut against Jarjis Danho, who didn’t have an impressive UFC debut in February. I can’t find much footage of Colombo and I have no idea what to expect, but he is a heavyweight finisher and heavyweights can be finished. I’m taking a chance on him.

PAUL FONTAINE- Jarjis Danho ($10,400), Taylor Lapilus ($10,000), Josh Barnett ($9,700), Jim Wallhead ($9,300) and Ilir Latifi ($9,100)

My team has the absolute best nicknames of any team in the history of Draft Kings and that’s gotta be worth something! “Man Mountain” (Danho) is going to rebound from a lackluster performance in his UFC debut and get back to his wildman ways with a destruction of fellow meathead Christian Columbo. “Double Impact” (Lapilus) will make France proud when he finishes off Leandro Issa in short order. “The Warmaster” (Barnett) will wear down Andrei Arlovski and submit him in the 3rd or 4th round.

“Judo” Jim Wallhead is one of the main reasons I used to go out of way to watch Cage Warriors and BAMMA and I remember him from his Bellator days. He’s improved since then and I like him to get the W in his long-awaited UFC debut. Finally “The Sledgehammer” (Latifi) is going to pound out Ryan “The Master” Bader (my nickname for him) to finally end his time on the periphery of the title picture.

PEACH MACHINE- Alexander Gustafsson ($12,500), Rustam Khabilov ($10,200), Josh Barnett ($9,700), Ilir Latifi ($9,100), Peter Sobotta ($8,400)

I like Barnett here. He was clowning around before his last fight with Rothwell and it cost him. This time, he’s going to be focused. Latifi always surprises me and Bader is coming off a devastating KO loss to Rumble. I like Latifi to do the same thing and send Bader into retirement.

Sobotta is a big time underdog but I don’t care. Dalby isn’t anything special. Besides, taking Sobotta allows me to take Gustafsson which I’m sure everyone will avoid because of his price tag. A 2-3 outing last week means I’m due for a 5-0 night. Or maybe 0-5.

UFC On FOX 21 DFS Playbook: who to target & who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The UFC returns to Canada this weekend for their next event on the FOX network as UFC On FOX 21 takes place on Saturday from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. The event is headlined by a five-round bout in the welterweight division as contenders Demian Maia and Carlos Condit do battle.

If you’re looking to score some money playing daily fantasy for Saturday night’s event, below is advice on some of the fighters featured on the card.

TOP PLAY

Anthony Pettis ($10,400)

After a long time competing as one of the best lightweights in the world, former UFC and WEC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis is dropping to 145 pounds in an attempt to revitalize his career and make a run at becoming a champion in the featherweight division. Pettis is coming in having lost three straight fights, which may make him a weird choice as the top fantasy play to some readers. However, when Pettis is on top of his game, he is one of the best fighters in the world. He hasn’t been at the top of his game recently, for whatever reasons, and perhaps the move to 145 pounds is what he needs to get him going again.

For his debut in the weight class, Pettis will be taking on Charles Oliveira in the co-main event of Saturday night’s card. Oliveira is one of the most pure talented fighters in the division, but one who hasn’t quite put everything together yet and get him into true title contention status. He has been on the cusp for some time, but every time he has that match-up that could propel him into the spotlight, he falls. He is a fighter who wins fights he’s expected to win, and loses fights he’s expected to lose, and hasn’t won that big one that he was supposed to lose. Going by the betting odds and the salaries for fighters on this card, he’s expected to lose, so this is his shot at scoring an upset. Pettis is going to have to come right after Oliveira if he’s going to take this win. Oliveira tends to fold under pressure, and while he has shown solid striking, Pettis’ flashy style is much more dangerous.

I also don’t think Oliveira is on the same level that the fighters who have defeated Pettis are on. Pettis has nasty kicks, and if he adjusts to the weight cut quickly, he has the chance to make this a quick night. I like Pettis as the top play.

BEST VALUE

Carlos Condit ($10,000)

Carlos Condit came super close to becoming the new UFC Welterweight Champion in January, losing a very close decision to then-champion Robbie Lawler. There was lots of talk that Condit was going to retire following the bout, but Condit returns on Saturday night for the headline position when he takes on Demian Maia. Condit brushed off the retirement talk saying he still loves what he’s doing, and he’s among the best welterweights in the world.

His five-round bout with Maia is going to pit your classic match-up in striker against grappler. Condit also has conditioning that is very hard for 170-pounders to match, and he can go for 25 minutes without getting tired. In fact, the longer a fight goes, the more in rhythm Condit begins to get with his huge arsenal of strikes. His opponent, Maia, has only been in three five-round fights, and he is 1-2 in those bouts. He lost decisions to Anderson Silva and Jake Shields, and won a lackluster decision over Ryan LaFlare. Maia is solid for a couple of rounds, but he begins to fade as the fight wears on. He is the best jiu-jitsu practiconer in the welterweight division, and he will be looking to take Condit down early, and he likely will. Condit is good at scrambling to his feet, and Maia uses a lot of energy holding opponents down.

Condit is very tough to submit, and if he can avoid the early grappling onslaught from Maia, it will open his striking late. As Maia begins to fade, Condit will be coming on strong, and a later round stoppage is certainly in the cards. With the fight being five rounds, and the match-up being very close, Condit is a great value at his salary as he will rack up points with striking, and his chance at a later finish is very solid. He has the best value for his salary.

FIGHTER TO AVOID

Kevin Casey ($9,200)

Kevin Casey’s six-fight UFC career has been weird, to say the least. He holds just one win in that time, two losses, a no contest due to a drug test failure overturning his win, a no contest due to an eye poke in the first minute, and, most recently, the rare split draw. Casey finds his back against the wall when he steps inside the Octagon on Saturday night as he takes on Sam Alvey. Alvey is looking to score his second straight win after a quick submission win over Eric Spicely.

Alvey is fighting for the third time in as many months, and he looks to keep the momentum going. Alvey is a finisher as 20 of his 27 career wins have come by stoppage, with 17 coming by knockout. Casey will also be giving up some size to Alvey to go along with giving up the experience. Casey is a solid jiu-jitsu artist, with a black belt, but he has yet to show his grappling skills all that much inside the Octagon. He has preferred to stand and strike, and, well, that isn’t condusive to getting a win over Alvey. Alvey hits hard, and Casey doesn’t have a strong chin. He also leaves himself open to be countered on the feet with the hands, and since Alvey is more of a straight puncher than an overall striker, Casey won’t often find a leg to grab in a striking attack to take the fight to the mat.

Casey has his back against the wall, and this is going to be a tough fight for him to get the win. I’m expecting Alvey to finish Casey, and I’m willing to say that this is fight most likely to see a finish. Casey is the one fighter to avoid on this card.

UNDERDOG TARGET

Shane Campbell ($8,800)

Shane Campbell will be making his fifth trip inside the Octagon on Saturday night, and he finds himself in a must-win situation. Campbell is just 1-3 in his first four UFC bouts and has lost two straight. He is coming into this fight after being submitted by Erik Koch in May in a fight where Campbell was winning early on the feet before succumbing to the grappling ability of Koch. Campbell will be taking on an opponent making his UFC debut in Felipe Silva, who enters the UFC with a perfect 7-0 record.

Silva has finished his opponents in six of those seven wins, with all of those wins coming in the first round. Silva is dangerous in that first round, but outside of that, his conditioning comes into play big time. He also has fought lower-level competition and Campbell is a big step up in competition with his experience. Campbell is a better striker on the feet as he has lots of professional kickboxing experience, and he is a much cleaner striker. Silva also doesn’t have the grappling credentials that both Koch and James Krause had when they took on Campbell in his last two fights.

Campbell is a sneaky play for an upset, and he has a low salary at just $8,800. Only two fighters have a lower salary than him. Silva’s undefeated record may scare people, but he is unproven on the big stage, and Campbell is a hard-nosed veteran. Campbell is your top underdog target.

WHO MIGHT SURPRISE

Paige VanZant ($10,800)

A Paige VanZant win wouldn’t be a surprise as she is one of the biggest betting favorites on the card and has the second-highest salary of all 22 fighters on the card. Many are expecting her to score the win when she makes her Octagon return taking on Bec Rawlings in one of the top fights on the card. Rawlings is a tough opponent and has won two straight fights, but VanZant is the more talented strawweight.

Both women are aggressive fighters though VanZant is a much more pressure fighter. She has also fought tougher competition, though she came up on the losing end in her last fight. She has a tremendous amount of heart that is matched only by her gas tank. VanZant doesn’t get tired, and Rawlings does as she carries a lot of size for a 115-pound fighter. Rawlings has good top control on the ground, but VanZant is crafty on the mat and is good at finding submissions. VanZant is also better on the feet of the two, and at just 22-years-old, the sky is still the limit for her. Rawlings is a good bounce back fight for VanZant as she is a tough test, but one that VanZant should be able to pass if she is going to be a title contender in the future.

A sneaky result here would be VanZant finding a submission after using a solid amount of ground-and-pound. She has done that before, and she is a scrappy fighter. She has a good chance at getting a finish, which even though her salary suggests might happen, it’s far from a guarantee. I think she finishes Rawlings, and that makes her a surprise play for those thinking she’ll just win by going the distance.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Paige VanZant ($10,800), Anthony Pettis ($10,400), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Adam Hunter ($9,700), Jim Miller ($9,100)

I have Anthony Pettis as my top play above, and I’m going with him in my line-up. I truly feel he will finish Charles Oliveira and get himself back on track. Oliveira is a very talented fighter, but he has a lot of flaws and falters against stiff competition. Pettis is stiff competition. He is risky based on his past three fights, but I see him getting back into the win column. Paige VanZant is making her return and looking to make a statement that she is going to be a future title challenger, and I expect her to be aggressive and wear down Bec Rawlings and score a finish in the later stages of their fight.

Carlos Condit is in the main event and has an extra ten minutes to score points. I expect him and Demian Maia to go the distance, though Condit can score a late finish. I like him to win the main event, and to score a handful of extra points in the extra time. Adam Hunter is making his UFC debut opposite an opponent also making his UFC debut in Ryan Janes. Hunter is an aggressive fighter and a finisher, and a quick finish and win for him is what I’m confident will happen. The last fighter on my team is Jim Miller. He holds a win over Joe Lauzon already, and I think he has a style that will have the upper hand on Lauzon. I like him to win.

PAUL FONTAINE- Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000), Sam Alvey ($10,200), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Jeremy Kennedy ($9,800), Charles Oliveira ($9,000)​

Di Chirico is a huge favorite despite losing his UFC debut in April. I believe that’s more due to the fact that his opponent Garreth McLellan is just not a very good fighter. I expect a quick finish for the Italian fighter here. Smilin’ Sam Alvey should knock out Kevin Casey in fairly short order. Casey has just never lived up to the potential he showed on The Ultimate Fighter and he could be gone from UFC after this one. I like Condit to keep the main event on the feet and pepper Maia with punches the entire fight. If he doesn’t finish him, he’ll land a ton of strikes in a five round fight and score points.

Jeremy Kennedy is unbeaten coming into his UFC debut and he’s facing a fellow Canadian fighting for the first time in the Octagon as well. Ricci has faced similar competition and lost 3 times so I like Kennedy here. My last pick is Charles Oliveira who I think will finally win a big fight. I think the cut to 145 is really going to hurt Anthony Pettis and I like Oliveira to win by submission as he has in most of his UFC fights. 

PEACH MACHINE- Paige VanZant ($10,800), Joe Lauzon ($10,300), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Chad Laprise ($9,900), Charles Oliveira ($9,000)

Condit will whhhhip Maia if Maia is dumb enough to keep it standing. I believe he’s that dumb and that Condit is a superior fighter. Oliveira has a lot of potential and Tony Pettis hasn’t exactly looked good recently. Pettis jumped the shark when he lost the strap. Lauzon looked great pummeling Diego Sanchez, and I expect JoeLa to toss a beatin’ on Jimmy Miller. PVZ needs a win here and I’m hoping she’s got her act together since DWTS. I picked Laprise because his cost allowed me to get to exactly 50,000. This is week 2 of 9 consecutive. We didn’t do great last week, not in the money, but my picks did go 4-1. This should be at least another 4-1 outing.

UFC 202 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

What could end up being the biggest UFC event of the year comes to us on Saturday night, with UFC 202 on pay-per-view coming from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is headlined by the much-anticipated rematch between Nate Diaz and UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, and they will do it again at 170 pounds. The lead-up to the fight in recent days has garnered a lot of attention, and fans are now ready for this fight.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for UFC 202 on Saturday.

STUDS

Tim Means ($10,900)

Tim Means is one of the top plays on this weekend’s UFC 202 card as he takes on Sabah Homasi in the main card opener. Means is a scrappy welterweight who tends to be an underrated fighter. He doesn’t seem like he will ever fight for a title as he has been unable to beat top competition, but he hangs around the bottom of the top twenty in the rankings and has exciting fights against lesser competition.

He was originally scheduled to fight Sean Strickland, but he pulled out due to injury. Homasi is coming in on very short notice, and he actually fought earlier this month on a Titan FC card. With two fights in three weeks, Homasi is going to be in shape, but Means has the benefit of a full training camp. Means is also coming off of having a drug policy violation shortened, and he has claimed his innocence, so he will have a chip on his shoulder in looking to have an impressive showing. Means has scored 21 of his 25 wins by stoppage, including 17 by knockout. He has also won five of his last six fights, and he last three wins have come by stoppage. Homasi has been finished in four of his five losses, and the short notice does him no favors.

I expect an impressive showing from Means, and another stoppage for him. He’s a safe bet for the top play on the card.

Cody Garbrandt ($10,300)

Cody Garbrandt is looking to get one step closer to a title shot as he looks to remain undefeated when he takes on Takeya Mizugaki on Saturday night. Garbrandt is 9-0 in his career and has scored eight of those wins by knockout. He has been super impressive in his career and his soaring stock and talent has made him the biggest betting favorite on the UFC 202 card.

Despite being the biggest favorite, Garbrandt has only the ninth-highest salary of all the fighters on the card, which is very unusual as the salaries are generally set by biggest betting favorites. Garbrandt’s $10,300 salary makes him almost a must-play. Mizugaki is a tough and durable opponent, but he hasn’t finished an opponent in almost five years, and Mizugaki’s last two losses have seen him finished by Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling. Cruz is a champion and Sterling is a rising prospect, much like Garbrandt. Garbrandt has a lot of speed and power in his striking, much quicker than Cruz.

This is tailor made for Garbrandt to get an impressive win, and I expect him to do so, and then to call out Cruz for a title fight. Garbrandt is great value at his salary, and a must-play in your lineup.

VALUE PLAYS

Nate Diaz ($9,200)

They are close in the betting odds, but Nate Diaz has a significantly lower salary than Conor McGregor, and that makes Diaz an excellent value play. We all know how the first fight between McGregor and Diaz went, and many are expecting much of the same in the rematch.

The big questions are how are the changes McGregor made going to benefit him to the point of being able to defeat the larger Diaz, and if the fact that Diaz got what he wanted, the money, makes him any less motivated for the rematch. Diaz is still going to be the larger man of the two, and he has the submission game that McGregor had no answer for in March. Diaz does get hit a lot, but he is very durable and has only been knocked out once in his career. Cardio is going to play a big factor, and we all know that Diaz can go five rounds, though he does get tired towards the latter stages of 25 minutes.

This is a tough match-up for McGregor, but a winnable fight for him if he can apply the needed changes to get past Diaz. The first fight has everyone convinced Diaz is going to be able to pull off the win a second time. His salary being at $9,200 is hard to look past and he has excellent value at that price.

Marvin Vettori ($8,800)

Marvin Vettori is making his UFC debut in the opening bout of the UFC 202 card when he takes on Alberto Uda. He comes into the UFC riding a five-fight win streak, and wins in ten of his last eleven fights. Of those ten career wins, nine have come by stoppage, with seven wins by submission and two by knockout. He is a young prospect at 22-years-old, but he is a power striker who has shown that he excels at finding submissions.

Uda is coming off the first loss of his career in his UFC debut. He was finished in the first round by Jake Collier in May, and he didn’t show much in that fight. He is tall and lanky, and welterweight fits him better than middleweight. He is dangerous in the clinch with knees, but he doesn’t have the distance striking that Vettori does. Vettori is a better fighter at this stage, and the reason he comes in with the much lower salary is the fact he has yet to have that UFC exposure.

Vettori is the betting favorite as he should be, and his very low salary makes him a prime value play candidate. I see him finishing Uda early, so he has excellent value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Artem Lobov ($10,800)

Honestly, Artem Lobov has no business being on the UFC roster. He doesn’t even have a winning record in his professional career, and he has suffered losses in both of his UFC bouts. He hasn’t looked good in both fights either. He is saved by the fact he is Conor McGregor’s teammate and they had the idea of doing fights between fighters on the teams from McGregor and Nate Diaz, as Lobov is taking on Diaz’ teammate, Chris Avila, which marks the UFC debut of Avila.

Lobov has a ridiculously high salary at $10,800, which is the fourth-highest on the card, and that doesn’t make sense at all. I’ve scratched my head at a lot of the salaries of the fighters on this card in putting my line-up together, and this one stands out as the absolute worst salary on the card. Lobov is a bad fighter who makes a lot of mistakes, but his experience may actually help him against Avila, who has just seven fights in his career. I don’t expect Lobov to get a finish, and there are much better options for your line-up.

I highly recommend avoiding Lobov at his salary.

Cortney Casey ($9,800) & Randa Markos ($9,600)

I’m doing a combination for this one as I’m really suggesting avoiding this fight in general. Both women are looking to score their second straight wins, and both are coming in on shorter notice after fighting recently. Markos won a decision over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in mid-June, and Casey is coming off a finish of Cristina Stanciu in mid-July.

I think Markos is the better fighter of the two, and she showed much improvement in her June win. Casey was the one who scored the finish, and she put together some solid striking, but Markos is one of the more durable women in the strawweight division. Markos has a style that doesn’t bode well for Casey as she is a good wrestler and has some tricky striking. Casey throws with a lot of volume, but she doesn’t defend against the striking as well, and she isn’t much of a counterstriker. Markos has the better wrestling of the two, though Casey is better on the mat with submissions.

It’s really a close fight on paper, but I do expect Markos to get the win. However, I expect it to go the distance, and not a lot of points fantasy wise to be scored. At their almost equal salaries, I’d recommend avoiding this fight, and both fighters, as there are much better options on the card.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Hyun Gyu Lim ($11,100), Tim Means ($10,900), Cody Garbrandt ($10,300), Marvin Vettori ($8,800), Glover Teixeira ($8,700)

Cody Garbrandt and Marvin Vettori are absolute steals at their salaries. Garbrandt is going to fight for a championship one day, and Takeya Mizugaki is actually a step back for him after fighting Thomas Almeida in his last bout. It screams like Garbrandt is a fighter that was turned down by other potential opponents, but Mizugaki is a game fighter. I expect Garbrandt to finish him. Vettori is making his UFC debut, but Alberto Uda is extremely beatable. Vettori is a finisher and I expect him to finish Uda. Hyun Gyu Lim is returning after a long layoff, but he is a big welterweight who likes to knock out opponents. He is getting a short notice opponent in Mike Perry, who, while undefeated, is very vulnerable to getting hit. Lim should finish him early. Tim Means also fights a short notice opponent, and he has become a vicious finisher in recent bouts. I see him making quick work of Sabah Homasi.

Glover Teixeira is my last pick for my roster, and he presents an interesting choice. Anthony Johnson is a monster, but a beatable monster. If Teixeira can weather the vicious early onslaught of Johnson, he has a style that can beat him as Teixeira can wrestle and submit opponents. Johnson gets in trouble after a round, and he can be taken down and submitted. That fight being three rounds makes Johnson more dangerous, but this is a winnable fight for Teixeira, and with spending big on three fighters, I like Teixeira’s chances at his low salary.

PAUL FONTAINE- Tim Means ($10,900), Cody Garbrandt ($10,300), Nate Diaz ($9,200), Marvin Vettori ($8,800) and Glover Teixeira ($8,700)

Means is one of the most underrated guys at 170 in my opinion and he’s facing a guy who is making his debut on short notice and just fought a couple weeks ago on a Titan show. Homasi might be a lower-level UFC calibre fighter but he isn’t in Means’ league. Garbrandt is going to wax Mizugaki in quick fashion, like he usually does. This guy is the one guy in UFC right now who I think has breakthrough star potential and with an impressive win her over a tough vet he could be in line for a shot at Dominick Cruz.

Diaz submitted Conor on a short camp in March and I see no reason why he doesn’t beat him pretty handily. I’m very surprised that he’s the underdog. Marvin Vettori should be able to finish Alberto Uda. Even though this is his UFC debut, he submitted UFC vet Igor Araujo in the first round in his last bout. I like Glover Teixeira to score a late submission win over Rumble Johnson. Teixeira is very tough to put away and I feel like Rumble will punch himself out in the first round and be vulnerable later in the fight.

PEACH MACHINE- Artem Lobov ($10,800), Cody Garbrandt ($10,300), Donald Cerrone ($10,000), Nate Diaz ($9,200), Glover Teixeira ($8,700)

Nate is the man. I expect him to continue to screw up McGregor’s big plans. Glover is tougher than Johnson. I think he puts Rumble down. Cerrone vs Story is going to be awesome! I like Cerrone’s reach to give him the edge. Mizugaki is being fed to Garbrandt, and I think Cody has himself a nice meal, and gets the duke. Artem Lobov is 0-2 in the UFC. He’s beatable, but I think he’s being gifted a win here for doing them a favor by fighting Ryan Hall.

THIS is going to be an awesome show. I’m inking up my #6 stamp. We’ve got 9 shows in a row here. I challenge someone to use my picks all 9 times in a row. PM me on the board if you’re interested.