Tag: DraftKings UFC

UFC Fight Night 92 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon rolls into Salt Lake City for the very first time on Saturday night for UFC Fight Night 92 on FOX Sports 1. The event is headlined by a five-round bout in the featherweight division as rising star Yair Rodriguez takes on UFC veteran Alex Caceres.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 92 event.

STUDS

Teruto Ishihara ($11,500)

Teruto Ishihara made a name for himself in his last fight and he will be looking to back it up when he returns to action Saturday night at UFC Fight Night 92. Ishihara will be attempting to score his second straight win after scoring a second-round knockout win over Julian Erosa at UFC 196 in March. Ishihara followed that was a charismatic series of post-fight interviews where he let it be known that he is fighting to impress women.

He has done plenty of impressing with seven knockout wins in his career, and his two losses on his record have come to fighters who have fought inside the Octagon. Ishihara will have the experience edge over his opponent, Horacio Gutierrez, who has just four career bouts. Gutierrez has lost his last two fights but still has some solid power in his hands and is a big featherweight. Ishihara is a more complete striker, and he has the better grappling between the two. Ishihara has the highest salary on the card, and he looks to be the biggest lock on the card.

It is safe to roll him as a top play despite the fact his salary will push some fantasy players away.

Yair Rodriguez ($10,500)

This event is built around showcasing Yair Rodriguez in the headline position and he has a favorable match-up on Saturday night as he takes on Alex Caceres in the five-round main event. Rodriguez is 7-1 in his career and has won five straight fights leading into this bout. While he has only scored finishes in three of his seven wins, he also scored finishes in his two tournament bouts when he won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America season one.

Rodriguez is also coming off a spectacular head kick knockout win over Andre Fili at UFC 197 in April. Caceres has had his ups-and-downs in the UFC, but he has won two straight fights since moving back up to 145 pounds after suffering three straight losses at 135 pounds. Caceres has improved his overall game, but he doesn’t have the flashy striking of Rodriguez. Caceres has a better shot at winning if he is able to get inside the pocket of Rodriguez and utilize the clinch but Rodriguez will use his kicks to keep him at a distance. Rodriguez will strike a lot and has an excellent chance at scoring a finish of Caceres.

Even if he is unable to, I see Rodriguez getting the win, and the potential for the fight to go 25 minutes opens up more scoring opportunities. Rodriguez is set up for a win, and I expect him to get it, and he is an excellent play for your line-ups.

VALUE PLAYS

Joseph Gigliotti ($9,300)

Joseph Gigliotti is making his UFC debut on Saturday night, and he immediately gets a main card spot when he takes on veteran Trevor Smith. Gigliotti is an excellent prospect, and very young at just 22-years-old. He is a perfect 7-0 in his career and has won all seven of his fights by stoppage, with three by knockout and four by submission.

Meanwhile, Smith is a 35-year-old who will be competing in his 20th professional fight, but he hasn’t fought in over a year. He is just 13-6 in his career, and five of his six losses have seen him finished. It isn’t an easy debut for Gigliotti, but he has the better athleticism of the two. Giglotti has power in his hands, a good wrestling game, and has shown an astute ability to snatch a submission. He is giving up some size to Smith, who is a big middleweight, and Gigliotti’s future in the UFC may be at 170 pounds.

Gigliotti is actually the betting favorite in this fight, but he has a much lower salary than Smith, which makes him the interesting play, and the big value play. I see Gigliotti being able to get a finish, and a quick one as well.

Chris Camozzi ($8,700)

Chris Camozzi is entering Saturday night’s event riding a three-fight win streak, and his decision win over Vitor Miranda in May may have been his best overall performance in his 16-fight UFC career. He has definitely improved his skills, and he gets the chance to showcase himself in a high-level fight against a perennial top-fifteen fighter in Thales Leites.

Leites has lost his past two fights after knocking on the door of title contention by scoring five straight wins in his return to the UFC. Despite Camozzi’s recent win streak and Leites’ recent losing streak, Leites is the big betting favorite and has a very high salary when it comes to fantasy. Camozzi is the better fighter on the feet and will be looking to establish his dominance there early. Where Leites excels, and where Camozzi lacks, is the ground game. Camozzi has ten losses in his career, and five of those have been by submission. Camozzi has never been finished by strikes in his career. Leites will be looking for the takedown and his grappling is dangerous.

There is a reason Leites is a big favorite, but Camozzi’s striking can’t be overlooked. He can frustrate Leites on the feet, and that makes him a very solid value play on the card.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Viktor Pesta ($9,900)

Viktor Pesta came into the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record, but he has been a big disappointment since stepping foot inside the Octagon. He is just 1-2 in his three UFC bouts, and they haven’t been what fans would call exciting fights. He is coming off a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in his most previous bout.

Pesta had scored seven of his nine prior wins by stoppage, and six of those had come in the first round. Suddenly, once he stepped foot inside the Octagon, that finishing ability seemed to be lost. He has had tough opponents, but he hasn’t shown the flashes of ability that got him signed. He is decent on his feet but works best in the clinch. He takes on Marcin Tybura on Saturday, a fighter who could have the same things said about him as Pesta does.

The loser of this bout is likely to be cut, so I see both men taking the safe route. We have seen some lackluster heavyweight bouts, and this one has the potential to be a lackluster one. I’m recommending avoiding both men, but especially Pesta as he has the higher salary.

Tatsuya Kawajiri ($9,100)

Tatsuya Kawajiri has been around for a very long time and Saturday will mark his 47th professional fight. It will be his sixth appearance for the UFC and he looks to bounce back from a decision loss to Dennis Bermudez.

Kawajiri takes on Cub Swanson in the headline bout on UFC Fight Pass, and their fight is likely the fight most fans are looking forward to the most. Kawajiri’s best days are behind him, and Swanson is the better fighter at this stage of their careers. Kawajiri doesn’t have the striking to match Swanson, but he does have a serious grinding style that he could utilize. Kawajiri won’t beat grapplers who are better than him at this stage, but he could give Swanson some fits. Swanson will need to keep this fight standing as he lands with a lot of volume. Kawajiri has a low salary and it will make him tempting to use, but I don’t see him defeating Swanson.

If he is able to, I would think it would be a boring and lackluster decision win, and his point-scoring potential would be limited. It’s just not a favorable match-up for Kawajiri, and I’m passing on him this weekend.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Yair Rodriguez ($10,500), Dennis Bermudez ($10,400), Zak Cummings ($10,000), Chase Sherman ($9,700), Joseph Gigliotti ($9,300)

I like Yair Rodriguez in the main event. His striking is flashy, and this is a favorable match-up for him against Alex Caceres. Caceres has definitely improved, but he still has been finished six times in his career. I like Rodriguez to be the seventh fighter to finish Caceres. Dennis Bermudez has had his ups-and-downs in the UFC, but he looked impressive against a tough Tatsuya Kawajiri in his last fight. He gets Rony Jason coming off of being out of action for well over a year after being suspended. I like Bermudez to dominate and submit Jason. Zak Cummings has quietly won four of his five UFC bouts and he has an edge in styles over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Cummings hits hard and has good submissions, and I like him to win.

Chase Sherman is a debuting heavyweight taking on another debuting heavyweight in Justin Ledet. Sherman has nine wins, all by knockout, and all in the first round. Ledet is actually a light heavyweight, and he will be giving up tons of size to Sherman. I see this as an easy win for Sherman. I’m filling out my team with Joseph Gigliotti. He has a ton of potential and is a proven finisher, and he should be the favorite over Trevor Smith. He is one of my value plays, and I almost see him as my lock of the night as far as predictions go.

PAUL FONTAINE- Maryna Moroz ($10,900), Yair Rodriguez ($10,500), Zak Cummings ($10,000), Justin Ledet ($9,700), Horacio Gutierrez ($7,900)

Maryna Moroz might be even better than her record shows. Her only loss came to Valerie Letourneau, who subsequently went five rounds with the champion. Her opponent has a similar record but against far lesser competition. She’s the biggest favorite on the card for a reason. Rodriguez should make quick work of Bruce Leroy in what could be his coming out party in the main event. Cummings has deceptive power and his opponent Ponzinibbio has shown to have a vulnerable chin and I think he goes down here.

Justin Ledet is an unbeaten heavyweight who has finished every one of his career opponents. His opponent has KO’s in every one of his career wins so this one is a bit of a toss-up but I’ve seen Ledet fight on AXS TV and I was impressed. My last pick is a longshot for sure but it’s the only way I could get 4 favorites on the team. Horacio Gutierrez has a .500 record but his opponent is new to the UFC level as well and anything can happen with two young, hungry fighters.  

PEACH MACHINE- Thales Leites ($10,700), Dennis Bermudez ($10,400), Zak Cummings ($10,000), Tatsuya Kawajiri ($9,100), Alex Caceres ($8,900)

Bermudez is my man. He’s a bad styles match up for “Jason” and I think he gets the finish. Leites is more a pick against Camozzi who I think of as basically a job guy. Leites over. Kawajiri is a bad styles match up for Swanson. I think he’s gonna take him down and ground him out. Bruce Lee Roy is an underdog pick but I’m surprised to see how much of a dog he is. That seems off to me so I’m taking him.

And Cummings is always game. All of this said, I can see me missing every single pick. Recently, I’ve gone bi-polar on my picks. I’ve killed it on a show, followed immediately by getting killed. Nothing in the middle. I got killed last weekend, so here’s hoping!

UFC 201 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon returns to Atlanta for the first time since 2012 on Saturday for UFC 201 from the Phillips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The fight card, live on pay-per-view, is headlined by a UFC Welterweight Championship bout as champion Robbie Lawler makes his third title defense, this time defending against challenger Tyron Woodley.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s UFC 201 event.

STUDS

Matt Brown ($10,900)

Matt Brown has the second-highest salary of the 24 fighters on the card despite having lost three of his last four fights. That says a lot about his opponent at UFC 201 on Saturday night, Jake Ellenberger, who has lost two straight and five of his last six fights. This is a big fight for both men who are in desperate need of a win, especially Ellenberger, who could be cut if he were to lose again.

Brown is a little more safe in the division, especially considering his last three losses have come to the likes of Robbie Lawler, Johny Hendricks and Demian Maia. Brown is much more dangerous at this stage as Ellenberger has clearly lost a step. Ellenberger has been finished in four of his last six losses, and if his opponents in his two losses by decision had fought with more aggression, he could’ve been stopped in those. Brown is by no means a fighter incapable of being finished as ten of his 14 losses have come by submission, but he has never been knocked out.

These two will likely throw a lot of punches and bring an entertaining fight and Brown is the favorite in this one. I really like his chances in finishing Ellenberger, and making Brown my top play is more picking against Ellenberger than picking for Brown. Roll with him as one of your top plays.

Robbie Lawler ($10,600)

Robbie Lawler makes his third defense of the UFC Welterweight Championship in the main event of UFC 201 on Saturday as he defends against Tyron Woodley. Lawler has been in a lot of classic bouts over the last few years, including two fights winning “Fight Of The Year”, and another potential winner of that award this year in his successful, albeit close, win over Carlos Condit in January.Woodley isn’t a fighter that screams excitement, but Lawler is going to make it a fun one.

Since returning to the UFC in 2013, Lawler has landed the most significant strikes in UFC competition. However, he has also absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC competition during that same period. Woodley is more of a wrestler than a striker, and he may be unwilling to go toe-to-toe with Lawler on the feet for a significant portion of the fight. Lawler also has strong takedown defense so this will likely be contested mostly on the feet. I can see a situation where Lawler finishes Woodley in the later rounds, as Woodley has only been in one five-round fight in his career, and in that one, he was finished in the fourth round by Nate Marquardt after getting tired.

Roll with Lawler as one of your top plays as I see him getting a lot of points, especially as the fight drags deeper into the 25 minutes.

VALUE PLAYS

Ed Herman ($9,200)

Ed Herman just recently celebrated ten years with the UFC and he is looking to celebrate on Saturday night as he looks to score his second straight win as he takes on Nikita Krylov. This is also Herman’s second time competing as a light heavyweight after spending his first 17 UFC bouts as a middleweight, and he looked good at the new weight class when he knocked out Tim Boetsch in January.

Herman is the very definition of a gatekeeper in the UFC, but not many of those have a ten-year career with the promotion. Krylov has shown to be a solid rising contender in a 205-pound division that really needs it, but at the same time, the opponents he has beaten are lower on the totem pole than Herman. Herman is the most experienced opponent he has fought inside the Octagon and Krylov is going to have to test the durability of Herman. Herman is solid on his feet and good in the clinch, but he will have to avoid the crafty submissions of Krylov. Herman has the chance to step up and ruin the rising status of Krylov, and he has a very good shot of scoring the upset based on experience.

Herman’s salary makes him an intriguing addition to your roster and I see very good value in him.

Bojan Velickovic ($8,900)

Bojan Velickovic is looking to end the undefeated mark of Michael Graves when they meet in the featured preliminary bout on UFC Fight Pass at UFC 201. Velickovic is a former top prospect from the American Top Team camp, and Graves is now one of the top prospects from that camp. Velickovic is a big welterweight and will have the size advantage over Graves, and he has almost three times the amount of experience in professional competition over Graves.

Graves is a solid wrestler who likes to take control from the top position, and he can score some points with takedowns. Velickovic is stronger on the feet and he has dangerous submissions, and if he finds himself on the bottom for a long time, he can find submission attempts there. Both men are finishers as Graves has scored five of his six career wins by stoppage, and Velickovic has scored eleven of his 14 wins by stoppage. Neither man has been finished in their careers and Velickovic is looking to hand Graves his first loss.

This card screams a lot of decisions, and Velickovic may not be able to stop Graves, but at his salary, he is a good underdog bet to win on Saturday, and you have to roll your roster with a couple of underdogs. He is a solid one.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Jorge Masvidal ($10,700)

I’m going to start this off by saying I think Jorge Masvidal gets the win on Saturday night. He actually came on this card on late notice, but his opponent, Ross Pearson, is coming in on even shorter notice and has already fought once this month. Pearson lost a decision to Will Brooks on July 8, and now he returns quickly, and moves up a weight class looking to bounce back. Neither man have had a lot of consistency in recent times as Pearson is just 4-5 in his last nine fights and Masvidal is 1-3 in his last four.

Both men have their backs against the wall and desperately need a win. Pearson at his $8,700 salary makes an interesting value and underdog play, but his quick turnaround of 22 days is going to be tough to overcome. He didn’t take a lot of damage from Brooks, but Brooks still wore him down, and Brooks and Masvidal are actually teammates, so Masvidal’s coaches already have their gameplan down. I don’t see either man finishing the other, and I sense a close fight.

With Masvidal’s salary being so high, while I think he gets the win, it is just too much to justify when there are better options at similar salaries. I’m recommending passing on Masvidal on this card.

Ryan Benoit ($9,500)

Ryan Benoit is taking his fight at UFC 201 on Saturday on very late notice as he steps in on just over a week’s notice to take on undefeated Fredy Serrano in a bout that was moved up to the main card after some last-minute changes. Benoit has three appearances inside the Octagon, going 1-2 in those bouts. That actually equals the overall career experience held in MMA by Serrano, who is 3-0 in his young career.

Serrano has a lot of competition experience though as he is an Olympic wrestler and a former medalist in the Pan Am Games. He may be inexperienced, but he has scored three stoppage wins in his young career. He has scored knockout wins in his two UFC bouts and he is developing into a power striker. Benoit is a good kickboxer and has scored seven of his eight wins by knockout, and he has yet to be finished in his career by knockout.

Benoit coming in on the short notice puts him at a disadvantage, and I don’t think his skills can match those of Serrano. Serrano should be able to take him down and is a good bet to score a finish. I’m avoiding Benoit on this card.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Matt Brown ($10,900), Robbie Lawler ($10,600), Fredy Serrano ($9,900), Francisco Rivera ($9,700), Bojan Velickovic ($8,900)

I like Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler as my studs on this card, and they are my top two plays, and I’m having both of them on my roster. Jake Ellenberger looks washed up and Brown is a bringer of violence, plus Brown needs this win if he ever has any thoughts of challenging for a title someday. I see him finishing Ellenberger in the second round. Lawler always has great fights and while Tyron Woodley is a big challenge, Lawler can overcome it and wear down Woodley into a finish in the later rounds.

I like Fredy Serrano against a late replacement in Ryan Benoit, and Serrano is a powerhouse at 125 pounds. Francisco Rivera is an exciting bantamweight who throws down, and is in a must-win situation, so I see him taking chances and looking for the finish of Erik Perez. Bojan Velickovic is my last roster member. I think he has the best chance at the underdog win and finish, and you have to have two of those on your roster. I see him as the best value.

PAUL FONTAINE- Matt Brown ($10,900),  Damian Grabowski ($10,000), Fredy Serrano ($9,900), Damien Brown ($9,800). Ed Herman ($9,200)

Matt Brown is a no-brainer for me. His opponent Jake Ellenberger is pretty much done and Brown has a chip on his shoulder and feels he has something to prove. I think he gets a first round stoppage here. Grabowski should submit Hamilton in the first or second round. Serrano is old in age but young in fighting age and should rack up his fourth straight stoppage win in a fight just added to the main card.

Damien Brown is a fun fighter and while I don’t know much about his debuting opponent, Brown had 5 straight stoppage wins prior to losing his UFC debut and I like him to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night. I really wanted Nikita Krylov on my team but I couldn’t fit him in under the cap so I’m going with his opponent Ed Herman. Herman is a battle-tested vet who still has the ability to stop anyone. A lot of vets have been scoring surprising wins of late and I hope Herman is the next one to do it.

PEACH MACHINE- Matt Brown ($10,900), Jorge Masvidal ($10,700), Erik Perez ($9,700), Ryan Benoit ($9,500), Tyron Woodley ($9,000)

This is a bad styles fight for Lawler. I expect T-Wood to employ the same strategy he used to bore us to death against Gastelum. I wouldn’t be surprised to see T-Wood do just enough to win the strap. Brown is a killer and Ellenberger always disappoints. I like Brown to finish. I really think Masvidal is going to be a contender at 170 and Pearson just fought less than a month ago. Perez is tough and is going to be in a war. I expect a lot of points from him.

Same thought for Benoit, but Benoit is taking the fight on short notice, although now days, 72 hours is the industry minimum. I don’t really feel good about this card. Last card I went 5-0. I’m not expecting that again.

UFC On FOX 20 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon returns to the FOX network on Saturday night for the UFC’s annual July FOX event as UFC On FOX 20 takes place in Chicago, Illinois. The event is headlined by former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm looking to get back to a title shot when she takes on Valentina Shevchenko in a five-round bout.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

STUDS

Francis Ngannou ($11,500)

Francis Ngannou has shown himself to be a big threat in the UFC’s heavyweight division, and he enters Saturday night’s card as the biggest betting favorite and the highest-salaried fighter on the card.

Ngannou is 7-1 in his young career and has won six straight fights, including his last two in the UFC. He has scored all seven of his wins by finish, and he is a huge heavyweight, a muscular 250-pounder with an 83″ reach. He gets his third straight fight against an opponent making their UFC debut when he takes on Bojan Mihajlovic in a main card bout on FOX on Saturday night.

Mihajlovic has won ten straight fights as he enters the UFC, but he is a very small heavyweight. He will be giving up four inches in height, a lot of weight, and a good amount of reach. This fight is made for Ngannou to get another impressive win, this time in front of the largest audience to see him to date. Roll with him as your top play despite the large salary.

Kamaru Usman ($10,800)

Kamaru Usman is another solid top play on Saturday night’s card as he looks to keep his current six-fight win streak going when he takes on Alexander Yakovlev. He is taking this fight as an injury replacement, but he was already in hard training for a bout at UFC 198 in May before he was pulled for visa issues, so the shorter notice shouldn’t be much of an issue.

Usman is a strong wrestler out of the Blackzilians camp, and he has scored six of his seven wins by stoppage. His last win, over Leon Edwards, was his lone fight to go the distance, but it was a bout he still dominated en route to getting the decision. Yakovlev is tough opponent, but he has fallen to much better competition in his UFC career. Yakovlev does have solid power in his hands, but so does Usman, and Yakovlev will likely be unable to stop the takedowns that will be coming.

Usman has loads of potential, and a solid chance of scoring the finish, so even though he has a higher salary, he is a good pick for this weekend.

VALUE PLAYS

Gilbert Melendez ($9,000)

Gilbert Melendez makes his first appearance inside the Octagon since UFC 188 in June 2015 as he returns from a year-long suspension due to a failed drug test. Melendez has lost his last two fights, and three of four since moving over from Strikeforce. That recent slump makes him an underdog heading into his co-main event bout against Edson Barboza on Saturday night.

Barboza is coming off his best performance in the UFC to date, a decision win over Anthony Pettis in April. That Pettis wasn’t near the best of his career, but it was still a solid win for Barboza. Barboza sometimes buckles underneath the pressure of a big fight, and if Melendez can pressure Barboza into making mistakes, that will bode well for him. This is a high-quality fight and Melendez has a solid chance at scoring an upset.

It’s hard to find an underdog on this card that you can truly bank on scoring a win, but Melendez’ history in the sport is too hard to pass up, plus Barboza can falter against tough competition. Melendez has some good value on Saturday night.

James Moontasri ($8,700)

James Moontasri is looking to score his second straight win since moving up to the welterweight division in the UFC when he takes on Alex Oliveira on Saturday night.

Moontasri had an impressive first-round TKO win in his last bout in November, his seventh finish in his nine career wins. He is very good on his feet, likely a better striker than his opponent, Oliveira. A striking battle will favor Moontasri, and he has a good chance of finishing Oliveira with his flashy striking. Both of Oliveira’s losses inside the Octagon have come by submission, but both have come to strong submission fighters.

Moontasri has an underrated ground game, but Oliveira’s is better, so Moontasri would be smart to keep this on the feet. It will likely be an explosive battle, and I see someone getting finished in it. Moontasri’s skill level combined with his low salary makes him a very solid value play on this card.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Felice Herrig ($9,600)

Felice Herrig is one of the most experienced fighters in the women’s strawweight division, with 16 career mixed martial arts bouts, and 28 career kickboxing bouts. That experience will be a huge factor when she takes on Kailin Curran in the main card opener on FOX as Curran has just six professional fights in her career.

Neither woman has been consistent either as Herrig is 10-6 in MMA and Curran is 4-2. That makes this fight a toss-up in the betting odds. Herrig hasn’t fought in 15 months and has openly talked about personal struggles following her last fight. She wants to have a strong showing, but Curran is a tough match-up. Herrig has never been finished in her career, and I don’t see that happening. She is too tough and durable and Curran could be forced into a difficult fight by her.

However, I like Curran to get the win by decision, which hinders Herrig’s ability to maximize her points. It is still a toss-up, and even if a fantasy player likes Herrig, I don’t see her scoring more points than any other fighter with a similar salary. That makes her a pass in my view.

Luis Henrique ($9,300)

Luis Henrique is looking to rebound from a disappointing UFC debut when he takes on the debuting Dmitry Smolyakov in the opening bout on Saturday’s card. Smolyakov is undefeated as he makes his UFC debut and has scored all eight of his wins by stoppage. He has also scored all eight of those wins in the first round, with four wins coming in less than a minute.

Granted, it’s all been against lower-level competition, but he comes into the UFC with a lot of momentum. Both of Henrique’s losses have come by knockout, including one to Sultan Aliev, who competes as a welterweight. Henrique is a heavyweight. Smolyakov is a talented wrestler and a solid striker, and Henrique’s goal should be to get this fight on the ground as he is the better ground fighter. I’m not sure I see that happening, though.

Henrique’s history of losing by knockout combined with the talent on the feet and in the wrestling of Smolyakov makes Henrique a fighter to avoid drafting on this card.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Francis Ngannou ($11,500), Darren Elkins ($10,300), Dmitry Smolyakov ($10,100), Gilbert Melendez ($9,000), James Moontasri ($8,700)

I’m going with my top play, Francis Ngannou, as one of my five on my roster. I don’t forsee a lot of finishes on this card, but he is as close to a guarantee as there is. I also have Gilbert Melendez and James Moontasri on my team. I like them as value picks as stated above, and think they both have a good chance for upset wins.

I’m also going with Dmitry Smolyakov. Eight first-round wins in eight fights are hard to pass up, and I like his chances against Luis Henrique. Plus, it is heavyweights- a finish is the higher percentage outcome. Lastly, I’m going with Darren Elkins on my team. He scores a lot of takedowns in his fights, and he makes the most of them with repeated strikes on the mat. He shouldn’t have a lot of trouble in getting Godofredo Pepey down on the mat, and I like his chances to win.

PAUL FONTAINE- Dmitry Smolyakov ($10,100), Eddie Wineland ($9,400), Jason Knight ($8,800), James Moontasri ($8,700), Valentina Shevchenko ($8,600)

My team is almost entirely composed of underdogs and there’s a reason for that. Most of the favorites on this card are not finishers. Last week, my team finished in the money, despite only going 3 for 5 and it was because all 3 of the winners scored finishes. If the same happens this week, this team will be in the money again and if 4 or 5 win, which could happen, we could be looking at a team that scores huge points and wins a big prize in one of the mega-pools.

Smolyakov has finished every one of his pro opponents and is making his UFC debut. Wineland’s an aging vet with something to prove and guys like that have been doing really well lately. Knight lost a tough fight to Tatsuya Kawajiri in his UFC debut but had won 9 straight prior to that, with 8 coming by finish. He’s fighting to save his job here. Moontasri’s last five wins have all been by stoppage and all in either UFC or on nationally televised regional shows. Shevchenko is a gamble but Holm choked against Miesha Tate and I’m not sure that she doesn’t do the same here with the pressure of carrying an entire card by herself.

PEACH MACHINE- Francis Ngannou ($11,500), Edson Barboza ($10,400), Felice Herrig ($9,600), Eddie Wineland ($9,400), Valentina Shevchenko ($8,400)

Time to be perfectly honest here… I LOVE THIS LINE UP! And I still have 500 bones to play with. I’ll put it on THIS line-up! Shevchenko last lost to Nunes i.e. the champ. Holm was at one point the champ, but she was bested by Tate who was bested by Nunes. So ya, Shevchenko is definitely winning by decision in what’s going to be a war. Eddie B. is game and Gilly is fresh off a year long lay off from suspension, so he’s going to be missing his juice. Ed B is on his way up, and Gillyboy M is on his way down.

Felice Herrig is just tough. Both these women have lost to P VanZ but Herrig wasn’t finished and Curran was. So Herrig is definitely winning. Edward Wineland is one of my favorite fighters because he’s really gutsy, and while he’s been on a losing streak, I know he’s going to be in a war and win that war against Frank S. I’ve never heard of Ngannou, or his opponent, and Ngannou is ridiculously priced, so I went with him, because I ball so hard.

UFC Fight Night 91 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

For the fourth time in less than a week, there will be action inside the Octagon as the UFC heads to Sioux Falls, South Dakota for the first time for UFC Fight Night 91 on Wednesday. This event is headlined by a five-round bantamweight bout between exciting young fighters Michael McDonald and John Lineker.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Wednesday night’s event.

STUDS

Tony Ferguson ($11,500)

Tony Ferguson has the highest salary of all the fighters on Wednesday’s card for UFC Fight Night 91, and he is the top play for this event. Ferguson has one of the highest salaries ever seen since DraftKings started doing fantasy for UFC events, and it is for good reason.

Ferguson has won seven straight fights and has put himself in a position to be the next challenger for the UFC Lightweight Championship, now held by Eddie Alvarez. Ferguson gets a favorable match-up in UFC newcomer Landon Vannata, who replaces Ferguson’s original opponent for this event, Michael Chiesa. Ferguson is so much more experienced than Vannata is, and it is a tall task for Vannata to face in his UFC debut. Ferguson’s striking is so good, and he throws a huge amount of tricks at his opponents.

He has solid wrestling and an excellent ground game and submission game to go with it. Ferguson is also a finisher as 16 of his 20 career wins have come by stoppage. This is a must-win for Ferguson, and he shouldn’t feel too much pressure, especially since he only has to go three rounds now. He is practically a lock for a win, and he should get the finish. He is the top play on this card.

Devin Clark ($10,900)

Devin Clark is making his UFC debut in the opening bout of the UFC Fight Night 91 card on Wednesday, and he will have a few positive notes coming into his debut. He is currently undefeated with a 6-0 record, and he has scored four of those wins by stoppage. He will also be making his debut in his hometown of Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Clark was last seen in action in April for the RFA promotion as he competed at the event that UFC President Dana White attended while filming his Looking For A Fight show. Clark will be taking on Alex Nicholson, who is making his second appearance inside the Octagon. Nicholson debuted in February with a submission loss to Misha Cirkunov. Nicholson fought up a weight class as a light heavyweight against Cirkunov, so now he goes back down to his more natural weight.

Clark is still favored in this one, and he should be a good bet to score a stoppage win on Wednesday. He is definitely a top play on this card.

VALUE PLAYS

Matthew Lopez ($9,400)

Matthew Lopez is another fighter making his UFC debut on the heels of being on that RFA card in April that was featured on Dana White’s Looking For A Fight show. Lopez is also undefeated with an 8-0 record, and seven of his wins have come by knockout or submission. An even better statistic is that all seven of those wins have come in the first round with five of them coming in under three minutes.

He is a super prospect at 135 pounds and a name I’ve been hearing about for around a year. He gets a very tough match-up in his UFC debut in the very experienced Rani Yahya. Yahya has 21 wins in 30 career fights and six wins in the Octagon. He is also a finisher as well, with 16 wins by submission, and he has only been stopped three times in his eight career losses. He is a solid betting favorite, but is also not as talented at this stage as Lopez. What Lopez lacks in experience he makes up for in ability.

Lopez is a very solid value play on this card.

Eric Spicely ($8,400)

Eric Spicely is another fighter making his UFC debut on this card, joining four others in making their Octagon debuts. All five of those fighters also have something else in common- they are all undefeated. Spicely is 8-0 in his career and has seven wins by knockout or submission. He hasn’t competed in an official bout since October, but Spicely has been competing on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Spicely made it to the semi-finals, where he lost by knockout to eventual season winner Andrew Sanchez, but he impressed enough to get an official UFC bout out of it. He will be dropping back down to his natural division of middleweight, but he gets an experienced opponent in Sam Alvey. Where Spicely will have a big advantage is that Alvey just fought on June 18, so this is a very quick turnaround for him. Alvey had a disappointing loss so he wants to rebound nicely, but he is too big of a favorite when you factor in the quick turnaround.

Spicely is a solid fighter, but not spectacular, but he has a solid shot at scoring the upset. He has good value as a low-salary fighter on this card.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Tim Boetsch ($8,800)

Tim Boetsch is very experienced inside the Octagon, having amassed 18 bouts with the UFC. He has the most UFC experience of all the fighters on the card, yet he has just a .500 record, going 9-9 in those 18 bouts. He also enters Wednesday having dropped his last three fights, and he is just 2-6 in his last eight fights after being on the cusp of title contention following back-to-back wins over Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard.

Boetsch is likely fighting for his UFC future, and he should know it. He will be taking on Josh Samman, who is looking to bounce back from his first loss inside the Octagon. At this stage, Samman is just more talented than Boetsch, and he has all the tools to get the best of Boetsch on Wednesday. Boetsch has been finished in seven of his ten losses, and while I’m not sure Samman will finish him, I don’t expect a Boetsch win on Wednesday.

He is a low-salary option, but I don’t view him as a viable option to have on your roster.

Daniel Omielanczuk ($8,600)

Daniel Omielanczuk has won two straight fights to even his UFC record at 2-2, so he will have a decent amount of momentum when he fights on Wednesday. He is also fighting an opponent who hasn’t fought since November 2014 in Alexey Oliynyk. To top it off, these men are heavyweights, which means a knockout can come at any moment.

However, I am recommending avoiding Omielanczuk for your roster on Wednesday. Oliynyk is 50-9-1 in his professional career and has won eleven straight fights heading into Wednesday. He has an astounding 41 wins by submission, along with five wins by knockout. Both of his UFC wins have come by stoppage as has all eleven wins in his current win streak. He is a dangerous finisher, despite coming off of being out of action for almost 20 months due to various injuries.

Omielanczuk has never been finished in his career, but I expect his luck to run out. Omielanczuk is a fighter to avoid.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Tony Ferguson ($11,500), Alexey Oliynyk ($10,800), Michael McDonald ($9,700), Ben Nguyen ($9,600), Eric Spicely ($8,400)

Tony Ferguson is my top play above, and he will be my top pick for my roster. He is extremely talented, and with the lightweight title jumping around, I think he now has a good shot at holding that championship. I see him making quick work of the late replacement. Alexey Oliynyk may have been out of action for a long time, but I see him being the first man to finish Daniel Omielanczuk. 46 of 50 wins by stoppage is hard to go against

 I’m going with two young and talented fighters on my team in Michael McDonald and Ben Nguyen. McDonald is in the main event, meaning extra time to score points, but I see him finishing John Lineker in what could be an exciting main event. Ben Nguyen has been very impressive in his two UFC bouts, and he has scored a lot of points. He has a tough foe in Louis Smolka, but I have him scoring an upset. I only have enough left for a low-salary option, so I’m going with Eric Spicely. I like his chances against Sam Alvey.

PAUL FONTAINE- Devin Clark ($10,900), Lauren Murphy ($10,100), John Lineker ($9,900), Louis Smolka ($9,800), Tim Boetsch ($8,800)

This was a tough team to pick as in looking at the card, it seems like we will be in for a night of decisions. I always like to go with fighters who have the best chance of securing a finish though and I think I’ve done that with my team. Devin Clark is unbeaten and a local product who is kicking off the show in South Dakota. I like him to score an impressive KO. Lauren Murphy usually scores a KO when she wins.

Lineker will be motivated in the most high profile bout of his career. McDonald is younger but has more experience but I like Lineker to blitz him with his explosive offence and score a mid-round stoppage. The Louis Smolka/Ben Nguyen fight is an important flyweight bout and I think Smolka takes a step toward title contention with a win over the highly touted prospect. Rounding out my team is veteran Tim Boetsch who I’m hoping will turn back the hands of time to score a stoppage over Josh Samman. If he doesn’t, he could be out of UFC. 

PEACH MACHINE- Tony Ferguson ($11,500), Scott Holtzman ($10,700), Michael McDonald ($9,700), Katlyn Chookagian ($9,300), Eric Spicely ($8,400)

I don’t know. I’m just randomly picking. My brain is mush.

UFC 200 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

It is the biggest event in UFC history as the Octagon makes its’ debut in the brand new T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for UFC 200. A stacked card that has undergone some last-minute changes finds UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate and challenger Amanda Nunes as the main event.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.

STUDS

Sage Northcutt ($11,300)

He’s the biggest betting favorite and has the highest salary on the UFC 200 card, but I also think he is the safest play in terms of scoring a finish win on the card, so Sage Northcutt is my top play for this event.

He looked like the beginner he is in his last fight, his first career loss, when he was submitted by Bryan Barberena, but I see that fight as too much and too soon for him. Plus, he went up a weight class at last minute notice, and he openly has admitted he was really sick and not feeling himself and probably shouldn’t have fought.

I don’t see those factors being there this time, and he is getting another step down back to the lower levels of the lightweight division as he takes on Enrique Marin.

Marin is 8-3 in his career but is coming off a split decision loss in his UFC debut, and he didn’t look all that impressive. I actually think this is the most favorable match-up Northcutt has had in his UFC career, and he has two finishes in his two wins. I think he bounces back and gets a finish, so Northcutt is worth the risk.

T.J. Dillashaw ($11,100)

T.J. Dillashaw is an interesting play at his salary as he has the third-highest salary on the card, and what happens when he steps inside the Octagon across from Raphael Assuncao on Saturday night will be really interesting.

They are battling for a title shot and Assuncao is riding a 7-fight win streak, which includes a previous win over Dillashaw, but he hasn’t fought since October 2014 as he has battled injuries. The rust will likely be there for Assuncao, and this is his first fight since the new testing regime, and he was always a huge bantamweight.

Dillashaw is coming off a close loss to Dominick Cruz in losing the UFC Bantamweight Championship, and he wants that back.

That gives him plenty of motivation to make quick work of Assuncao, and that is before mentioning he is looking to avenge a loss. I see Dillashaw racking up a lot of points, and if you are someone wanting to avoid using Sage Northcutt, I see Dillashaw as a solid stud to take.

VALUE PLAYS

Jose Aldo ($9,500)

Jose Aldo has a little higher salary than I usually put in the value plays section, but he has some good value at a relatively solid salary for his fight at UFC 200 on Saturday night. Aldo is taking on Frankie Edgar for the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship, and he holds a win over Edgar at UFC 156 in February 2013.

Aldo is hungry to erase the stinging memory of his 13-second knockout loss to Conor McGregor in December, and he wants that rematch with McGregor, and a win over Edgar would make that wish come closer to happening.

I do expect the fight to go the full 25 minutes, giving both men more chances to score points. It is hard to say what Aldo will look like as he has only fought for 13 seconds since October 2014, and he is kind of a wild card in this new era of the UFC.

Edgar is still quick on his punches but Aldo was able to negate what Edgar was good at in their first bout. It’s really a toss-up as to who will win, so going with Aldo would provide good value for this card.

Takanori Gomi ($8,600)

Let me start this by saying that I had Daniel Cormier as my second value play, but that all changed on Wednesday, so this article had to be edited. It is hard to find value with other fighters on this card as I think the betting favorites are going to win, but I like Takanori Gomi at his salary.

He has struggled in losing three of his last four fights, but so has his opponent, Jim Miller, who has lost four of his last five. They will fight in the opening bout of the card, and they wanna set the stage early and go for the fight of the night bonus early, so I expect fireworks in this bout.

Gomi hits hard but Miller is tough to finish on his feet, so he will need to avoid being taken down. They will probably trade a lot of punches and score some points, and I expect a close decision.

It is a long-shot, but I feel Gomi has one of the best chances to score an upset. I think he is worth taking a value risk.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300)

Kelvin Gastelum is looking to rebound from the disappointments of his first two career losses when he takes on Johny Hendricks at UFC 200. He does have a quick knockout win over Nate Marquardt, but Marquardt is on the back end of his career, and his losses have come to top fighters in Tyron Woodley and Neil Magny.

Hendricks is another top opponent who is looking to bounce back from losses in two of his last three fights as well. Both men are in need of a win to stay in that title hunt mix, and both men are real mirror images of each other.

Both are southpaws with strong wrestling, though Hendricks hits harder and is the better wrestler of the two. I think that the similar styles will make for a lackluster bout, and neither will take many chances as they both try to get the win.

I like Hendricks to win the fight, and Gastelum doesn’t offer much from a fantasy standpoint for this fight. I’m avoiding him this event.

Amanda Nunes ($8,700)

Amanda Nunes is in the biggest fight of her career at UFC 200 when she challenges Miesha Tate for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. Nunes has scored wins in three straight fights and is 5-1 in her UFC career.

She has earned her opportunity. She has a chance to get the win over Tate, but I don’t see it. Nunes always starts out strong but starts fading about seven minutes into a fight, and Tate is tough and gritty and will grind Nunes down from there. I don’t see Nunes finishing Tate in the first round, so it will be a tough road for her to get a decision from Tate.

She has that chance but has to strike early, and for that, I don’t see her being a viable fantasy option on this card. She is an avoid for me.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Sage Northcutt ($11,300), Cain Velasquez ($11,200), Frankie Edgar ($9,900), Brock Lesnar ($9,000), Takanori Gomi ($8,600)

I’ve got Sage Northcutt as my top play, and he is leading off my roster. I think he makes quick work of Enrique Marin.

Cain Velasquez has a high salary, but with being able to do a full camp alongside Daniel Cormier, I think he will score a lot of points against Travis Browne.

Frankie Edgar has 25 minutes to score points, and he is very active with his striking. I like him to win over Jose Aldo and score a lot. I have Takanori Gomi as a low-salary option on my team. I’m not too confident in this, but he does have power.

Lastly, I’m going with Brock Lesnar. I think he beats Mark Hunt, and finishes him in the second round.

PAUL FONTAINE- TJ Dillashaw ($11,100), Mark Hunt ($10,400), Amanda Nunes ($8,700), Thiago Santos ($8,400), Travis Browne ($8,200)

TJ Dillashaw has wanted this rematch with Raphael Assuncao for a long time. He’s a much better and complete fighter than he was when they first met and TJ lost a split decision in 2013. Assuncao hasn’t fought in almost 2 years and I think that hurts him here.

Hunt, to me, is the biggest lock on the card. I don’t see anything but a quick KO win over Lesnar.

I like Nunes to score the upset win over Tate. She’s a finisher and while Tate is a determined fighter, her last 3 losses have all come by finish. Santos has a lot of power for the middleweight division and I think that he will KO Mousasi.

Travis Browne is my last pick and I think that his fight with Cain Velasquez is going to be quick either way but I do think that Cain is starting to show his age and is prime for a finish at the hands of the rising contender Browne. 

PEACH MACHINE- Cain Velasquez ($11,200), Cat Zingano ($10,500), Frankie Edgar ($9,900), Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300), Brock Lesnar ($9,000)

Cain. Edgar. Always. Lesnar because it’s only 3 rounds. He can grind out Hunt for 15 minutes. Gastelum is better at 185 but I think he’ll be better than Hendricks at 170. I’m betting Hendricks misses weight. Zingano has had a lot of time off since her destruction at the hands of Rousey, but I predict there’s no ring rust for her and she smashes Pena. Another perfect team.

TUF 23 Finale DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The second of three straight nights of UFC action is upon us. This time it is The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale in Las Vegas, headlined by UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk defending against her heated rival, Claudia Gadelha. It is another night for fantasy players to win some money. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid for Friday night’s event.

STUDS

Will Brooks ($11,100)

Will Brooks is making his UFC debut on Friday night with a lot of hype surrounding him, and for good reason. He is the former Bellator Lightweight Champion, and he never lost that championship as he was stripped of the belt and released from the promotion after many public battles with the promotion. He just wanted to fight and defend the belt, but the promotion seemed to make that hard for him, almost like they didn’t want him as champion.

Brooks now finds himself where he wants to be in the UFC, and he is coming in looking to quickly earn his way to a title shot for UFC gold. He gets a tough first test in the form of Ross Pearson, and Brooks is actually a late replacement for the fight having just signed and being placed in the bout on June 15, though he has been preparing for a while. Brooks is 18-1 in his career and has a well-rounded attack complete with solid striking, good submissions and strong wrestling.

Pearson is a good match-up for him, but Brooks should be the solid favorite to get a win. I like his chances to win and to get a solid amount of points, and he is an excellent play on a very tight card.

Doo Ho Choi ($10,800)

Doo Ho Choi enters Friday night’s event with a 14-1 record and 12 straight wins, including two straight since signing with the UFC. He has scored first-round finishes over Juan Puig and Sam Sicilia, with them coming in a combined less than two minutes. Overall, he has scored eleven knockout wins in his career, with nine in the first round.

He is a super prospect at 145 pounds, but he is getting thrown right in there with a tough veteran in Thiago Tavares on Saturday night. Tavares has been fighting inside the Octagon since 2007 and has 17 fights, with ten wins on his record. He has also won three of his last four and is on the cusp of breaking into the top-15 of the featherweight rankings.

It is a tough test for Choi, but it’s a fight I see Choi having a lot of success in. Four of Tavares’ six losses have been by knockout, so he can be finished, and Choi is a power striker at 145 pounds. I have full confidence that Choi will be scoring an impressive win.

VALUE PLAYS

Cory Hendricks ($9,200)

Many viewers of this season of The Ultimate Fighter thought Cory Hendricks was one of the best male fighter on the cast, and he got a raw deal when his time in the competition was cut short due to a neck injury. Hendricks is still in the early stages of his career as he is just 3-0 in his young career, but all three wins have come by submission.

He has good skills but finds himself as the underdog when he takes on Josh Stansbury at Friday night’s event. Stansbury has won seven straight fights since losing the first two of his career, but he was eliminated from the competition by losing a fight to Khalil Rountree, who actually replaced Hendricks on the show.

With both men not in the finals, it is the perfect time to see who would’ve won the originally scheduled bout. Hendricks is the underdog but I like his chances with his submission skills. He is a good value play.

Cezar Ferreira ($9,000)

Cezar Ferreira is looking to score his second straight win on Friday night when he takes on Anthony Smith. It is Ferreira’s second fight since making the move back up to the middleweight division. It looks like it’s the right move for him as his most recent performance, a decision win over Oluwale Bamgbose, was the best he has looked in the UFC.

He didn’t get the finish, but is was a solid performance. He only has one finish inside the Octagon, but his skills are still very good. Smith is a tough opponent, and Ferreira has been knocked out in four of his five losses, but Smith can be finished as well. Smith is also the winner of eight straight fights, but Ferreira is the toughest opponent he has fought since before that win streak.

Smith has also been finished in all eleven of his losses, so the odds are very good. Someone is getting finished here, and Ferreira is a good underdog bet to score the win.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Joaquim Silva ($9,600)

Joaquim Silva enters Friday’s event with a perfect 8-0 record, and he fights another undefeated fighter in Andrew Holbrook. Silva has scored finishes in seven of his eight wins, but his lone decision win came in his only UFC bout last September.

He didn’t even look all that impressive, and he was lucky to get that decision. The fact that he is essentially in a pick ’em fight with Holbrook should not be overlooked. Holbrook is much more well-rounded and looked more impressive in his one UFC bout. Holbrook has also scored ten of his eleven wins by stoppage, with nine submission wins.

I like Holbrook to win and that makes Silva a risky play. I’m avoiding him.

Matheus Nicolau ($8,800)

Matheus Nicolau has just one loss in his 13 career fights, and he is coming off an impressive submission win in his UFC debut. He is just 23-years-old and is a solid prospect in the flyweight division. He is taking a huge step forward in taking on John Moraga on Friday night.

Moraga is a former title challenger and one of the top fighters at 125 pounds, and he is a very well-rounded fighter with strong striking, strong submissions and solid wrestling. Moraga brings violence into the cage, and that is hard to do in the flyweight division. Five of Moraga’s six UFC wins have come by stoppage.

Nicolau is a big underdog in this fight, for very good reason, and I don’t see him getting the win. In another card of close match-ups, he is one of the easier fighters on this card to avoid.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Doo Ho Choi ($10,800), John Moraga ($10,600), Andrew Sanchez ($9,700), Claudia Gadelha ($9,500), Cezar Ferreira ($9,000)

I like Doo Ho Choi as one of my top plays and to get a stoppage win when he takes on Thiago Tavares. He has excellent knockout power. John Moraga is a strong favorite over Matheus Nicolau, and he has five stoppage wins in his six UFC wins. Andrew Sanchez is looking to win a six-figure contract, and he has looked impressive and is a good finisher. Cezar Ferreira is a solid underdog and has a lot of value, and I see him finishing Anthony Smith. Lastly, I’m going with Claudia Gadelha. I’m picking her to defeat Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and I think it goes the full 25 minutes, opening up more scoring chances.

PAUL FONTAINE- Jake Matthews ($9,900), Khalil Rountree ($9,700), Claudia Gadelha ($9,500), Cory Hendricks ($9,200), Amanda Cooper ($8,400)

Not a lot of analysis here as this card was only recently finalized with the last episode of TUF airing. I watched all the episodes and as such I’m picking three three fighters that impressed me the most over the season with Rountree, Hendricks and Cooper. They are all capable of finishes. Matthews has a lot of hype and despite a hiccup in his home country a few fights back, he should keep getting better. I’m picking Gadelha to score an upset and take the strawweight title. I think she won the first fight and this time, there will be no doubt as she gives Brazil another champion. 

PEACH MACHINE- Will Brooks ($11,100), John Moraga ($10,600), Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($10,100), Thiago Tavares ($8,600), Anton Zafir ($8,500)

Champion is my real pick. I let the kid sitting next to me have my next one and he took Brooks. I love moraga so he’s another real pick. I had to take the other two clowns because I got greedy early.

UFC Fight Night 88 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

One of the traditional events on the UFC calendar is Memorial Day Weekend in Las Vegas. While not a pay-per-view event like usual, the Octagon is back this weekend, on Sunday this time, for UFC Fight Night 88 on FOX Sports 1. The event is headlined by undefeated bantamweights Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy rosters for Sunday’s event.

STUDS

Abel Trujillo ($11,200)

Abel Trujillo has the highest salary of the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 88 card, and it shouldn’t be a surprise for many reasons. Most of the bouts are evenly matched, but Trujillo will have an advantage as he fights a replacement fighter taking the fight on short notice making his UFC debut in Jordan Rinaldi. Trujillo has put up a solid 5-2 UFC record (with one no contest, though one of his wins was actually a loss that was overturned), with his only official losses coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson, both of whom are top-five ranked fighters. All of his official UFC wins have come by stoppage, and he is a dangerous and powerful fighter. Rinaldi has a solid 12-4 record, but he gets a tall order in making his UFC debut. Trujillo is a very good bet to score a finish and he is our top play for the card.

Aljamain Sterling ($11,000)

Aljamain Sterling enters Sunday night with an undefeated record, a new contract with the UFC, title shot aspirations, and the fight he wanted as he takes on Bryan Caraway. Sterling is a huge favorite in the bout, and with good reason as he is a perfect 13-0 with nine finishes, and three of his four UFC wins have been finishes. Caraway is a tough and durable fighter, but has garnered a reputation of late of turning down fights in what people seem to see as him trying to maintain his positioning in the division. If Caraway wants to fight for a title, he can’t turn down fighting Sterling. That may be a mistake for him. Sterling is young and hungry, and the 135-pound division is thriving with talent. He may be the most talented prospect, though the main event fighters on Sunday have something to say about that. He is just too talented for Caraway, and I expect Sterling to have an impressive showing on Sunday. He’s an excellent play.

VALUE PLAYS

Jeremy Stephens ($9,300)

With so many close match-ups on this card, it is hard to find a lot of value as I see the true underdogs having trouble picking up wins. That is why I’m going with Jeremy Stephens as a value play despite the fact he is fighting former bantamweight champion Renan Barao. Barao is moving up to 145 pounds as he is now going to have trouble making 135 pounds with the IV ban, and he is someone who has looked different in recent fights. Make of that what you will, but there have been noticeable changes in a lot of fighters, and Barao is one of those. Stephens has just a .500 record in the UFC, but he has been around a long time and is capable of making a solid run in the division. He has the knockout power and is known for exciting fights, and Barao has been taking beatings lately and not looked himself. Stephens is a sneaky play to score an upset and has some solid value.

Chris Camozzi ($8,900)

Chris Camozzi is another good value fighter as he looks to score his third straight win. He takes on Vitor Miranda, who has won three straight, but Camozzi is the toughest opponent he has fought in the UFC. Miranda is also getting older, but he is coming off an impressive win. Camozzi is also coming off an impressive win, and a rather quick one. This fight should be closer in the betting odds, but the longer odds make Camozzi’s salary a very good one to look at. Both men are very good kickboxers, but Miranda is a big middleweight, and he fades late. That could open the door for Camozzi to attack late. Camozzi has dangerous muay Thai and is very underrated despite his lackluster UFC record. Both men are on solid streaks, and Camozzi has a very solid chance at getting the upset. He is worth looking at for some value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Jorge Masvidal ($9,600)

Jorge Masvidal is a very good fighter, somewhat underrated by a lot. He took former lightweight champion Benson Henderson to the wire but came up short in his last fight. He has a 6-3 record in the UFC, but he is a fighter you should avoid for a simple reason- he isn’t much of a finisher. He has 16 wins by decision out of his 29 career wins, and he has only scored two stoppage wins in the last six-plus years. He is also facing a very dangerous opponent in Lorenz Larkin, who is better on the feet in a pure kickboxing term. Masvidal is more well-rounded, but he tends to abandon his solid takedown game to get into a battle on the feet. That will cost him against Larkin. I like Larkin in this fight, and I don’t see anything but a decision happening. I would avoid Masvidal at his salary. If his salary was lower, he’d have good value, though.

Jake Collier ($9,100)

Jake Collier is 1-2 in the UFC and is on the chopping block coming into Sunday’s card. He has to get a win. That might be a challenge against the debuting Alberto Uda, who is 9-0 with eight finishes in his career. Uda is a crafty striker, and a dangerous one at that, and has very good submissions. Collier eats a lot of punches, and that cost him in his last fight, which was a knockout loss to Dongi Yang. Collier is solid but unspectacular, and he hasn’t shown that he has what it takes to compete at the UFC level right now. Perhaps with a few more fights under his belt, and a loss here would send him back to the regional circuit. His prior UFC bouts make it hard for him to be trusted on a fantasy roster, much less against a dangerous foe. He is a solid pass in my eyes.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Alberto Uda ($10,300), Thomas Almeida ($10,200), Jessica Eye ($9,500), Chris Camozzi ($8,900)

I’m starting my roster off with Aljamain Sterling. I think he is a future champion at 135 pounds, and he is getting the big push this week. I expect him to finish Bryan Caraway and to be impressive in doing so. Alberto Uda is making his UFC debut, but with eight finishes in nine career wins, an undefeated record, and a struggling opponent, I see him getting a finish. Thomas Almeida is in his first main event, and he does have a tough opponent in Cody Garbrandt. I see him finishing Garbrandt, and even if it goes five rounds, that’s a lot of points that can be scored. Jessica Eye is also on my roster. She is hungry and is better on the feet than her opponent, Sara McMann, who hasn’t shown much in the UFC. I like Eye to get the win. Last on my team is Chris Camozzi, who I see landing a barrage of knees in the clinch on Vitor Miranda and getting a stoppage win.

PAUL FONTAINE- Abel Trujillo ($11,200), Paul Felder ($10,800), Renan Barao ($10,100), Cody Garbrandt ($9,200), Bryan Caraway ($8,400)

Many of these matches are very close and extremely tough to call and the main event is one of those. I’m taking a chance but I needed two underdogs to fit some guys on the team that I really like. Both guys are finishers and both have faced a similar level of UFC competition. Both are 24 years old. It’s really almost a pick ’em in my eyes so I’m getting a bit of a break on the price for Garbrandt in that sense. I’m much more confident about Barao. He probably should’ve been fighting at 145 all along but didn’t want to be in the same weight class as Jose Aldo, who was the champion and his training partner. He shouldn’t lose any of his speed and may have even better cardio as a result of not having such a drastic weight cut. And Jeremy Stephens is not getting any younger. I really like Paul Felder in his fight over Josh Burkman and feel like this is a glorified enhancement match for Felder, who had lost two in a row last year before rebounding with a submission win in his last fight. Trujillo is the biggest lock on the card, in my opinion and his price showed it. He has just two losses in the last 5 years and they’ve been to Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s facing a debuting fighter with 4 losses in the same time period to people who literally aren’t in the same league. My last pick is Bryan Caraway who is a big underdog in his fight against Aljamain Sterling. I see Caraway frustrating Sterling with his wrestling and maybe sneaking in a submission win or a decision.

PEACH MACHINE- Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Renan Barao ($10,100), Lorenz Larkin ($9,800), Tarec Saffiedine ($9,700), Cody Garbrandt ($9,200)

Barao hasn’t fought in a while which is good. He needed to take some time off after two decimations by Dillashaw. I think he’ll be back in old form and destroy Stephens. I’m taking Sterling because I hate Caraway. I also feel like Sterling is gonna be a star soon. Larkin is in top shape at 170 and I’m not sure how Masvidal is going to fare moving up. He’s done so before, but I’m leery. Saffiedine is facing Rick Story who has been out action for a while. He hasn’t fought since 2014. Saffiedine dispatched of Ellenberger, who I consider a better version of Rick Story, so I’m taking Tarec. Garbrandt is my “make him fit” pick because I don’t like anyone else. I like Garbrandt more than Almeida so I’m fine with it. Let’s go Ascension!

UFC 198 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The UFC heads to Curitiba, Brazil for the first time, bringing an event to a soccer stadium that promises around 45,000 strong for UFC 198 headlined by UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum defending against Stipe Miocic. Despite the loss of Anderson Silva, it is still a deep card on Saturday. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for the event.

STUDS

Cris Cyborg ($11,600)

Cris Cyborg makes her UFC debut and she is obviously the biggest play on the fight card. She is just a vicious knockout artist and fighting her is likely leading to a devastating finish. She is fighting at 140 pounds, the first time in a very long time she has fought below 145 pounds, but she is also going against Leslie Smith, a natural 125-pound fighter who fights at 135 to be in the UFC, and is now going up even more in weight. Cyborg will be cutting to make 140, Smith won’t be cutting so much. This is a showcase fight for Cyborg to get the fans in her hometown a fighter to cheer for, and it becomes an even bigger deal now that Anderson Silva is now off the card. She should make quick work of Smith and you will maximize your points in picking her. The salary is high and you will have to do some good work with the other four selections, but Cyborg is a must own.

Warlley Alves ($10,800)

Warlley Alves enters Saturday’s UFC 198 event with a perfect 10-0 record, and with Anderson Silva now being out, he gets the main card slot on pay-per-view to showcase his skills. Alves has scored stoppage wins in seven of his ten wins, including in three of his four wins inside the Octagon. He is coming off an impressive and dominant submission win over Colby Covington, who was also undefeated at the time. Alves will be facing Bryan Barberena, who is looking to build on the momentum he has as the man to hand young rising star Sage Northcutt his first career loss. Barberena is 2-1 in his young UFC career, but has just fought three times over the course of two years, and Alves is a huge step up in competition for him. Barberena may not be ready for the challenge, and this is made for Alves to score another impressive win as they work to build him up. I expect another stoppage win for Alves, and he will be a good play on Saturday night.

VALUE PLAYS

Stipe Miocic ($9,100)

The challenger for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in the main event of UFC 198, Stipe Miocic, presents some very solid value at a $9,100 price tag. He lands a lot of strikes, especially over the course of 25 minutes, if it were to go the distance. Miocic is a man on a mission to win the gold, and he has a very good chance as he matches up well against Werdum. Werdum has shown improved boxing, but Miocic is better on the feet, so it will be up to Werdum to try and get the fight down. Miocic has good takedown defense, but he hasn’t had to show off a lot of his grappling. That is Werdum’s world. As long as Miocic keeps the fight on the feet, he is going to score points. He also has excellent conditioning. Werdum has a lot of pressure on him, and Miocic has nothing to lose as he goes for the gold. He has an excellent chance at scoring the upset, and his salary makes him very good value.

Renato Moicano ($9,000)

Renato Moicano is another solid value play on Saturday’s fight card. He hasn’t fought since December 2014, but he is undefeated in his ten career fights. Five of his nine wins (he has a draw) have come by submission, including his UFC debut win over Tom Niinimaki. He has very solid skills and is a rising Brazilian prospect at 145 pounds. However, he won’t have an easy bout as he takes on another tough rising prospect in Zubaira Tukhugov in the opener of the event. Tukhugov is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC and has won nine straight fights. The big knock on him, despite an impressive 18-3 record, is that he is more of a points fighter as eleven of his 18 wins are by decision, including two of his three UFC wins. He is also coming off a close split decision win against Philippe Nover. Moicano has a good shot at scoring an upset and getting a finish, and he has good value for those looking for their underdog pick.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Mauricio Rua ($9,200)

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a legend in the sport of MMA, but also one who has seen better days in his career. Saturday night will be a big night for Rua as he fights in his hometown of Curitiba for the first time in 13 years, and that is why he was eager to get on this card. However, he does not have an easy task in front of him in the form of Corey Anderson. Anderson sports an 8-1 record and has won three straight, showing off some impressive wrestling skills and improving striking. However, he does tend to eat some good punches, and he was put down in his most recent loss. Rua has trouble taking punches these days, and his takedown defense hasn’t been at top levels in recent years. Rua can always have a vintage Shogun performance, and perhaps fighting in his hometown will give him that added edge, but his recent performances leave a lot to be desired, though he is coming off a win. As hard as it is to avoid him, with the match-up in front of him, I recommend avoiding Rua.

Matt Brown ($8,900)

Matt Brown holds the record for most knockout wins in UFC welterweight history, and he’s long been one of the most exciting fighters at 170 pounds. He has never been able to make that next leap into a title shot, but he gets a big opportunity to make an impact when he takes on Demian Maia on Saturday. It is a fight that Brown asked for, and it may be a huge mistake. Maia excels in the grappling, and he made Gunnar Nelson, arguably the second-best grappler at 170 pounds, look like a novice on the mat. Brown’s biggest problem has always been defending the takedown, and Maia is going to be looking to get the fight to the mat almost immediately. Brown has never been knocked out in his career, but nine of his 13 losses have come by submission. He has a tall task in front of him, but Brown is coming to bring the fight to Maia. He will be tempting to use, but I recommend passing on Brown in your line-ups on Saturday.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Warlley Alves ($10,800), John Lineker ($9,700), Stipe Miocic ($9,100), Nate Marquardt ($8,500)

I have Cris Cyborg as my top pick, and it is a no-brainer. Unless she has a huge adrenaline dump or the weight cut takes a drastic toll on her, she should run right through Leslie Smith, and pretty quickly. I like Warlley Alves to submit Bryan Barberena with relative ease. John Lineker is another solid pick. He has exciting fights and is a finisher, and 135 pounds suits him better. He has a tough opponent in Rob Font, but Font hasn’t fought someone like Lineker, and I think Lineker gives him a good beating. I’m confidently picking Stipe Miocic to become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion on Saturday, and he should rack up some points whether he finishes Fabricio Werdum or goes the distance. Nate Marquardt is my final pick, and one I’m not overly confident on. He is cheap and is coming off a knockout win, and his opponent, Thiago Santos, can be finished. It is my hail mary pick.

PAUL FONTAINE- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Fabricio Werdum ($10,300), John Lineker ($9,700), Renato Moicano ($9,000), Matt Brown ($8,900)

I like the champion to retain in the main event. It could be a long fight as both guys can take a lot of punishment but even if it goes the distance, Werdum will rack up a lot of points in five rounds. Cyborg is a no-brainer. That fight has first round finish all over it. The only question is if she loses any power fighting at 140. Brown is a bit of a risk but I just can’t see him giving up and at some point, I think Brown breaks him and scores a TKO win. Lineker/Font should be a great fight. Lineker’s the type of fighter who should be spurred on by the Brazilian crowd and he should put together a flurry that hands Font his first UFC loss. Moicano is a bit of an unknown but he submitted the tough Tom Niinimaki in his first UFC fight. The only time he hasn’t won in his career, he went to a draw with Felipe Froes, who is one of the top Featherweights outside of North America.

PEACH MACHINE- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Fabricio Werdum ($10,300), Patrick Cummins ($9,800), Yancy Medeiros ($9,400), Vitor Belfort ($8,800)

Another perfect use of 50k but a few things have to happen for this to be a winning hand. I think they will. Werdum finds a way to win. I don’t care what Miocic has in his hands because he has nothing on the ground, and Werdum is a smart fighter. I had Uriah Hall, but switched to Yancy Medeiros after the Silva injury as I see him defeating Trinaldo. Cyborg is a guaranteed first round KO. Cummins has to score a lot of points and beat Lil Nog. He should be able to, unless Nog gets lucky. Vitor is going to be extremely motivated and he’s got KO potential always looming. Also, I had to take a significant dog to get Cyborg. I think Belfort is a steal. He may get beat but I don’t think it will be in the first round. Souza will respect the phenom and take it slow.

UFC Fight Night 87 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon makes a stop for the first time in The Netherlands for a fight card on Mothers’ Day as UFC Fight Night 87 rolls into Rotterdam, airing on FOX Sports 1 as an afternoon event in the United States. Headlining the event is a heavyweight bout as Alistair Overeem puts his three-fight win streak on the line against former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your line-ups for Sunday’s event.

STUDS

Magnus Cedenblad ($10,600)

Magnus Cedenblad hasn’t fought since October 2014 yet he remains one of our top plays on this slate of fighters for UFC Fight Night 87 on Sunday. He has won three straight fights, and eleven of his thirteen professional wins have come by stoppage. He is a huge middleweight and has some real good talent. He is a solid grappler, and that is the area his opponent, Garreth McLellan, has some trouble. McLellan has a tendency of getting taken down, and with a bigger opponent in Cedenblad who has excellent grappling, it is going to be hard for McLellan to avoid getting taken down. Cedenblad should be looking to utilize his size and grappling advantages, and a finish early should be in line. He has good hands, but a submission early seems more likely. Cedenblad is an excellent pick to start your roster off with.

Alistair Overeem ($10,300)

I am honestly surprised that Alistair Overeem is coming as cheap as he is for his main event bout against Andrei Arlovski. Overeem has won three straight and has looked excellent in doing so, and his last win over Junior Dos Santos was arguably his most impressive inside the Octagon, making Dos Santos look like a finished fighter, which is amazing considering how impressive Dos Santos looked in his last fight a month ago. He also faces an opponent known for a glass jaw in Arlovski, who is coming off being knocked out in 54 seconds in his last fight against Stipe Miocic. Yes, Overeem has suffered nine knockout losses of his own, but his style should be able to keep Arlovski from getting on the inside. Arlovski did look like a rejuvenated fighter up until his smashing at the hands of Miocic, and I expect to see more of that Arlovski than the one who had an impressive win streak leading into the Miocic bout. Overeem’s salary makes him an easy play for your roster, and I expect him to be widely owned.

VALUE PLAYS

Chris Wade ($9,000)

Chris Wade is an interesting play for a $9,000 salary. He is undefeated inside the Octagon, but he takes on his stiffest test to date when he meets Rustam Khabliov on Saturday night. Khabilov is an injury replacement, but he had a good amount of notice for the bout and likely got as close to a full training camp as you can get. Khabilov hasn’t looked the same in his most recent fights, and while he got the win over Norman Parke in his last fight, he didn’t look overly impressive, and Wade is a sneaky rising prospect. Wade has good wrestling and some solid submissions, and he may overpower Khabilov to the mat. Khabliov had shown some great throws and takedowns, but that has seemingly gone out the window lately. I’m not sure if he regressed or if the having to stay overseas to train due to visa issues have hurt him, but he just hasn’t looked the same. Wade is a sneaky play to score a lot of takedowns and grind out a decision win.

Gunnar Nelson ($8,900)

Gunnar Nelson is going to be the most debated fighter on the card at his $8,900 salary. It’s hard to predict what is going to happen when he takes on Albert Tumenov on Sunday. Tumenov has shown to be an explosive striker so Nelson will be looking to take it to the mat. If Nelson can get the fight down, Tumenov is going to be in a lot of trouble on the ground. Nelson is still world class on the mat, but he did get embarassed by Demian Maia in his last fight. He needs a big rebound if he is ever going to be in the title picture at 170 pounds, and Tumenov is a beast with a five-fight win streak and has explosive finishes. Nelson has yet to be finished, and he could grind the fight out for three rounds and find a submission on the mat. He has good value if he can turn the fight with Tumenov into his kind of fight. It may be a challenge, but I see Nelson having some very good value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Yan Cabral ($10,200)

Yan Cabral has a decently high salary on Sunday’s event, but he is an easy pass for me. He is just 2-2 in his UFC career and hasn’t been overly impressive in his bouts. He has one finish in the two wins, but that was over Naoyuki Kotani, who was 0-5 inside the Octagon. He has a tough match-up against Reza Madadi, a fighter who is very tough to finish, and one that has a good shot at scoring an upset win. Madadi lost his last bout to Norman Parke, but it was his first fight in two-and-a-half years, and the ring rust was certainly evident. Madadi has a very good chance in finishing Cabral, but this looks to be a fight that will go the distance. I don’t expect much from either man, and I actually think Madadi picks up the victory. It makes Cabral an easy fighter for me to avoid.

Ulka Sasaki ($9,100)

Ulka Sasaki is the other fighter on my avoid list. He is coming into his bout against Willie Gates as a late replacement for the now-retired Paddy Holohan and enters the fight on a two-fight losing skid. He is in a must-win situation if he intends on having a UFC future, but Gates is a tough foe to go against, especially when he has a full camp. Gates is just 1-2 in his UFC tenure, like Sasaki, but both of his losses came in short-notice situations. When he had a full camp, he won in 96 seconds. Sasaki’s last two losses have come by finish, and Gates is a finisher himself. Sasaki is an easy fighter to avoid, even though his low salary is tempting if you are looking for cheap options.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Magnus Cedenblad ($10,600), Alistair Overeem ($10,300), Nikita Krylov ($10,100), Willie Gates ($9,600), Chris Wade ($9,000)

I have Magnus Cedenblad and Alistair Overeem as my top plays for this week, and thus they will be on my roster this week. I love Cedenblad’s chances against an overmatched Garreth McLellan and Cedenblad’s grappling will be the big difference. Overeem is on a roll and has looked good-to-great in his three-fight win streak. Andrei Arlovski has a real suspect chin, and against a heavy kickboxer like Overeem, it is looking good for Overeem to get an early win. I like Nikita Krylov against Francimar Barroso. Barroso does just enough to win fights by decision, but he hasn’t been overly impressive, and Krylov has against lesser competition. I like Krylov to win by submission. Willie Gates gets a short-notice opponent who has been finished in his last two, and Gates is impressive with a full camp. I’m taking a chance on him. I’m also taking a chance on Chris Wade. I think he wins and he is cheap and of great value. Takedowns and significant strikes will lead him to the win.

PAUL FONTAINE- Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($11,200), Alistair Overeem ($10,300), Nikita Krylov ($10,100), Willie Gates ($9,600), Garreth McLellan ($8,800)

“Reem” is fighting in his home country and is on the verge of a title shot. He’s my lock of the week. A must for any DK team and at a reasonable salary. Nikita Krylov has the best nickname in MMA, “Al Capone” and his last 5 wins have been first round finishes. KK is unbeaten and that shouldn’t change against TUF 20 alumnus Heather Clark. The women on that show have not faired well in UFC competition for the most part against fighters that weren’t on the show. I expect KK to get her UFC finish here as the biggest favorite on the card. Garreth McLellan is a darkhorse for sure but when he wins, he finishes. Magnus Cedenblad was finished by Francis Carmont. ’nuff said. I’m going with Willie Gates for my last pick. KO power in the flyweight division is rare but Gates has it. Yuta Sasaki has been finished in two straight fights and Willie is going to make it three on Sunday morning.

PEACH MACHINE- Kyoji Horiguchi ($10,700), Albert Tumenov ($10,500), Yan Cabral ($10,200), Anna Elmose ($9,400), Chris Wade ($9,000)

I will always take Kyoji. He will be a champion someday and I’ll always put him on my team. He’ll get the finish, or a ton of points. Tumenov has a really tough opponent across the cage but he’s game as hell and maybe he saw the blueprint for beating Nelson. Wade is as tough as Khabilov. I’m sure Wade is there to lose, but I don’t think he cares what UFC has planned. Nor should he. Yan Cabral is going against Madadi who I’ve never liked. Elmose is a newcomer but looks tough and de Randamie has been out of action for a while. I like the upset here. I’m not as confident in these picks as I’ve been in the last couple but as usual, my advice is to never play it safe.

UFC 197 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon heads back to Las Vegas and pay-per-view for UFC 197 on Saturday night, featuring the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. Jon Jones makes his return against Ovince Saint Preux in the main event for the UFC Interim Light Heavyweight Championship, and Demetrious Johnson defends the UFC Flyweight Championship against Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo in the co-main event. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

STUDS

Jon Jones ($11,400)

Jon Jones is the top play for this weekend’s event as he makes his long-awaited and much-anticipated return to the Octagon. It isn’t the fight everyone wants since Daniel Cormier pulled out due to injury, but he gets Ovince Saint Preux, who is a solid top-ten fighter at 205 pounds, but a favorable matchup for Jones. Jones commands the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, and really, that is to be expected seeing as he is arguably the best fighter in the world. The biggest question surrounding Jones is whether the 15 months off and the distractions throughout that time hinder his performance.

There is nothing that suggests that, though. Saint Preux is powerful at this weight and has solid striking and a great submission game, but he is taking the fight on short notice, and he can’t match the skills of Jones. Jones has dynamic striking, great wrestling and excellent submissions, and is suffocating from top position. Saint Preux struggles when he is controlled on the mat, often looking like a lost puppy when on bottom. Jones should finish him, it’s just a matter of when. Jones should be the most used fighter on the card.

James Vick ($10,900)

James Vick is entering UFC 197 on Saturday with a perfect 8-0 record in his career, and a 4-0 record inside the Octagon. If you include his bouts on TUF, his overall record would be 11-1, with the only loss coming to Michael Chiesa, a top-ten ranked lightweight. To say the least, Vick’s record isn’t too shabby. The only problem is his lack of activity due to injuries and various reasons. He was on the TUF Live season in early 2012, but didn’t make his UFC debut until August 2013. He was then out of action for over a year, but had three fights between August 2014 and May 2015.

He hasn’t fought since that May fight, when he submitted Jake Matthews, who was also undefeated at the time and hyped by a lot. Vick has scored stoppage wins in five of his eight wins, all of them in the first round. He is fighting TUF Brazil winner Glaico Franca on Saturday. Franca won his lone UFC bout in August but this is a huge step up in competition for him. Vick should be able to easily score the win on Saturday, and a finish is very likely. He is an excellent play on Saturday.

VALUE PLAYS

Andre Fili ($8,900)

Andre Fili boasts an impressive 15-3 record in his professional career but has struggled for consistency inside the Octagon. He is just 3-2 in the UFC and has rotated wins-and-losses in those bouts. History would dictate that he is set up for a loss on Saturday as he won his last fight. However, he looked the best he has to date in his first-round TKO win over Gabriel Benitez in November, and he is improving in his overall performance. He has struggled with UFC caliber opposition, and he has that on Saturday in the form of Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a former TUF Mexico winner and has been solid in his three UFC bouts, and is coming off an impressive showing in his most recent win. Fili is the toughest test for Rodriguez to date in the UFC, and he has more than twice the experience of Rodriguez. Fili is a very solid value play on this card and worth a look.

Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

Henry Cejudo has been to the top of the mountain in every competition he has been in, and the only thing left is to win UFC gold. He has that opportunity on Saturday night when he takes on Demetrious Johnson for the UFC Flyweight Championship. Cejudo is undefeated in his MMA career and is a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. He enters the fight with Johnson on Saturday night as a big underdog, thus making his salary very low, among the lowest on the card. He has a tall task in front of him in Johnson, who is one of the best in the world.

What makes Cejudo an interesting play is the fact that this fight is five rounds, and it is likely to go the full five rounds. Cejudo has been the distance in all of his UFC bouts and Johnson has gone to the fifth round in all but two of his title fights. That should give both men more opportunities to land significant strikes and for Cejudo to use his wrestling. He also has a good chance at scoring an upset. It is hard to pick against Johnson, but Cejudo’s salary makes his excellent value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Kevin Lee ($10,300)

Kevin Lee is looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to Leonard Santos in December, a fight many expected to go his way. Perhaps he was thinking that too and got too overconfident, and it ended up with him being finished in the first. That ended Lee’s four-fight win streak and has relegated him to opening fight duties on the UFC 197 card. Lee gets a tough opponent in Efrain Escudero, a long-time UFC veteran and former TUF winner who needs a win himself if he wants to avoid being cut for the third time. Lee is the favorite and should get the win, but here is why I am putting him as a fighter to avoid. At his salary, I see better options available at similar salaries. I don’t see him finishing Escudero, and I don’t see him scoring a lot of points en route to a win. Lee likely will win, but for fantasy reasons, I recommend fading him in your line-ups.

Walt Harris ($9,800)

Walt Harris has fought three times inside the Octagon, and all three times he has lost. His last two losses have been by knockout. Surprisingly, he has a higher salary than his opponent, Cody East. East is making his UFC debut coming off of Dana White’s Looking For A Fight show, and he boasts a 12-1 record. East has won nine straight fights and eleven of his twelve wins have come by stoppage. East has eight wins in the first round, and he should be looking for an impressive debut win. Harris trains with a top camp in the American Top Team camp, but has just a 7-4 overall record. He badly needs a win to avoid being cut from the UFC roster, and that will give him added motivation. It is just a bad matchup for him, and I am avoiding Harris at all costs.

OUR LINEUPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Jon Jones ($11,400), Danny Roberts ($10,400), Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($10,000), Cody East ($9,600), Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

Jon Jones is my top play this weekend and my top pick. He has the highest salary and I expect him to get the finish of Ovince Saint Preux. I think a second-round submission win is in the cards for Jones. Danny Roberts is another solid pick. He fights Dominique Steele, a man who won his last bout but was knocked out quickly in the bout before. Roberts is an excellent finisher and I see him getting another first-round win here. Marcos Rogerio de Lima fights Clint Hester. One man is going to sleep in that fight as both rarely go the distance. de Lima hits way harder and is bigger and I like him.

Cody East has a ton of first-round finishes and his opponent, Walt Harris, is a good bet to go down early. My last pick is Henry Cejudo. I think he has a realistic shot at getting the win, and going five rounds will add to the points. Even in a defeat, I see him getting enough points over 25 minutes to equal another underdog that wins points total. He is a risk, but one I’m taking.

PAUL FONTAINE- Jon Jones ($11,400), Robert Whittaker ($10,700), Sergio Pettis ($10,100), Juliana Lima ($9,200), Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

I don’t really care what Jones’ salary is, he’s a must for my team. After 16 months away and facing the weakest opponent since before he won the title, he’s almost a lock to score an early finish. I’m picking Henry Cejudo to unseat the champion here in the year of upsets. Robert Whittaker should continue his impressive run at middleweight with another stoppage win over the aging Natal. I like Sergio Pettis to cement his place in the line of flyweight contenders with a dominant win over my countryman Kelades. Rounding out by team is Juliana Lima. She’s got the former champion Esparza coming in off a brutal defeat at the hands of Joanna Champion and should score a victory here.

PEACH MACHINE- Demetrious Johnson ($11,000), Robert Whittaker ($10,700), Kevin Lee ($10,300), Juliana Lima ($9,200), Edson Barboza ($8,800)

Again, another perfect use of 50,000. Bet this line-up. DJ is my number one power player in DK. He goes five rounds and gets finishes. IDK if he’ll be able to finish Cejudo, but he will win. Barboza is my questionable pick. I like him to beat Pettis, but it’s iffy. Whittaker is who I THOUGHT i was picking last week. I really like him to beat Natal. Lima is gonna destroy Esparza. I guarantee Esparza will come out scared and flat and will get beaten, and rightfully so. She was absolutely decimated the last time she entered the cage. Kevin Lee is going to be faster and stronger than the fading Escudero. Escudero is one of those guys that had a ton of potential, and just couldn’t get the job done. Lee will get the job done.

UFC On FOX 19 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon returns to FOX for their annual April event taking place in Tampa, Florida. The event is headlined by a light heavyweight bout as former title challenger Glover Teixiera takes on former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. There has been a facelift to this event in recent times, and if you set lineups early, you’ve had to adjust. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy lineups for Saturday’s UFC On FOX 19 event.

STUDS

Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400)

Despite the fact he hasn’t fought in two years, Khabib Nurmagomedov is the top play on Saturday night’s card. He has the highest salary of all the competitors on the card, and he enters the event with a perfect 22-0 record and was the last man to defeat current UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos. He was supposed to be in the headline position against Tony Ferguson, but an injury forced Ferguson out, and Nurmagomedov gets a late-notice bout against the debuting Darrell Horcher. That likely works out for him as Nurmagomedov really needs a tune-up after being out of action for so long. The fact he is an undefeated top contender fighting a newcomer makes him a big favorite, but he should get the job done. Remember, Nurmagomedov holds the UFC record for most takedowns in a fight, and whether or not he finishes Horcher, as long as the injuries haven’t slowed him down, he should be able to rack up the points.

John Dodson ($11,200)

John Dodson has the second-highest salary of the competitors on the card, and it is interesting as he is moving back up to 135 pounds on Saturday night after unsuccessfully challenging for the UFC Flyweight Championship twice. Dodson is small for 135 pounds, but he does hold a win over former champion T.J. Dillashaw. Dodson’s only two UFC losses have come to current 125-pound king Demetrious Johnson, and he was competitive in both bouts. Dodson is looking to make a title run at bantamweight, and it begins with a tough opponent in Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan has been inconsistent during his UFC career but is 2-0 since making his own move down to 135 pounds. Despite losing one-third of his fights, Gamburyan has only been finished three times in his eight losses. However, Dodson hits very hard, and he finished Dillashaw, the only man to do so. Dodson is a strong bet to score not just a win, but become the first man to finish Gamburyan since Jose Aldo. He is worth having on your roster.

VALUE PLAYS

Michael Chiesa ($9,400)

Michael Chiesa is an excellent value play for this card, coming in at a $9,400 salary. He fights Beneil Dariush, who has won five straight fights, but was gifted a decision in his last bout with Michael Johnson. When you look at a similar recent opponent in Jim Miller, both men scored wins over him, but while Dariush dominated Miller in a decision, Chiesa finished Miller, something that only Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone had done previously. Chiesa and Dariush have similar records in the UFC, but Chiesa has had the tougher road. He really should be favored in this fight, and that makes him a solid value pick to score a win. He may not finish Dariush, but when I look at this card, it screams a lot of decisions. Chiesa is gritty and tough, so while it may go the distance, he is a sneaky pick to score the finish. Either way, I see him winning.

Tecia Torres ($9,200)

Tecia Torres is another good value play at a $9,200 salary. She is undefeated in her seven professional fights, though she has yet to score a finish. She racks up points, though, and she has the edge of holding a prior victory over her opponent, Rose Namajunas. Namajunas has won her last two fights in dominant fashion by scoring finishes, and that has her the betting favorite here. However, she is just 4-2 in her official career, and while she has improved tremendously, Torres likely has her number, especially if this fight stays on the feet. Torres is better with the striking, but Namajunas is world-class for a strawweight on the mat. Tortes would be best served keeping it on the feet and racking up points by strikes. Again, on a card that could feature a lot of decisions, she is a good underdog pick to score a win, and there might not be a lot of those. Risky play, but she has some solid value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Hacran Dias ($9,600)

Hacran Dias has an impressive overall record and will be in a high-profile bout against Cub Swanson on the main card of Saturday’s event. Swanson is still ranked in the top ten despite two straight losses, but those came to current top five fighters in Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. Swanson has taken a year off to recover from injuries and should come in fresh and is eager to get back into the title picture. Dias has struggled with opponents ranked highly, with UFC losses to Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas, and he hasn’t shown the ability to finish opponents inside the Octagon. He isn’t overly flashy and doesn’t rack up a lot of fantasy points, and I see him having trouble with Swanson. Swanson can be finished, but I haven’t seen anything from Dias to make me confident he’ll finish him, let alone take home the victory. Dias is an easy pass for me.

Bethe Correia ($9,500)

Bethe Correia is an easy fighter to avoid. Despite having a 9-1 career record, she just hasn’t shown anything that shows she is a good fighter. Of her three UFC wins, one came over a now retired opponent, one over an opponent who is now more focused on professional wrestling over fighting, and one who has lost four of her eight career fights. Correia folded under the pressure of her first tough match-up against Ronda Rousey, and she has a tough opponent in the gritty Raquel Pennington on Saturday. Don’t let Pennington’s 6-5 record fool you- she is very talented. Despite being just 3-2 inside the Octagon, the two losses came by split decision, including taking now former champion Holly Holm, to the limit, and she could have easily gotten the decision in both losses and be 5-0 inside the UFC right now. Pennington should get this win, and that makes Correia a fighter to definitely avoid on Saturday.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Oluwale Bamgbose ($10,500), Michael Chiesa ($9,400), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

I like Khabib Nurmagomedov as my top play for the event. I’m honestly a little scared of his two-year layoff, but if he hasn’t been slowed by the injuries, he could be champion. With him fighting an opponent making his UFC debut on short notice, it should be an easy night for Nurmagomedov to rack up the points. I also like Oluwale Bamgbose despite the fight he is fighting on just one week’s notice. His opponent, Cezar Ferreira, has been disappointing in his UFC career, has been bouncing between camps and weight classes, and hasn’t shown much of a chin. Bamgbose is a heavy hitter and is a good bet to score a finish. I like Michael Chiesa, Court McGee and Tecia Torres as underdogs primed to win. Chiesa should be favored over Beneil Dariush, and he is a sneaky play to get a win. Tecia Torres has the prior win over Rose Namajunas, and despite her inability to score a finish win, I like her chances in getting a win. Court McGee is a very solid fighter and showed no ring rust in his return from a long layoff. He should be even better in his second return bout, and he has a favorable fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio. I like him to get a finish by submission.

PAUL FONTAINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Glover Teixeira ($10,300), Cub Swanson ($9,800), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

For the record, I was gonna pick Hendo in what I thought was the best value on the card. Such is life, with Lyoto Machidar (not a spelling mistake…sound it out) having spoiled that for all of us. Glover Teixeira should be able to stop Rashad Evans in the main event. I know he’s only been stopped once in his career (at the hands of a cheater who does not deserve two mentions in my paragraph) but Teixeira has looked really good in finishing OSP and Patrick Cummins in his last two fights. Nurmagomedov should make quick work of the debuting Horcher. Horcher is a good fighter who I’ve seen fight several times on smaller shows but Khabib is one of the best in the world and he’s trying to secure a title shot. Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas is going to be a great fun fight. I think that both Torres is going to light her up and as long as she can keep it standing, she’ll either score a late KO or score over 100 strikes on her way to a decision victory. Former TUF winner Court McGee has won 3 of his last 4, including a win over Robert Whitaker, who’s proving to be one of the best in the division. My final pick is Cub Swanson who will be looking to make an impression after being bumped onto the main card after the Dan Henderson-Cheating Brazilian fight was cancelled. Since 2012 his only two losses have been to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, two of the very best fighters in the division. Along the way, he’s scored several KO’s, including wins over Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver and Ross Pearson….all much tougher competition than he’s facing on Saturday. 

PEACH MACHINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), John Dodson ($11,200), Tecia Torres ($9,200), Rashad Evans ($9,100), Drew Dober ($8,800)

John Dodson probably scores more points than any other DK player ever. I’m just guessing, but it makes sense. Maybe DJ scores more because he’s always in five rounders, but Dodson should whip Gambo with his speed. Yes, I call him Gambo. Rashad is my heart pick. I think he should beat Glover with his speed too, but I wouldn’t be taking him if I hadn’t named one of my dogs after him. Nurmo’s oppo is taking this baby on short notice and at a catch weight. That’s great for Nurmo. TT has already beaten Rose, and I like her here to do it again. Dober is another heart pick. I think he’s looked really tough his last couple of fights, and he’s got a tough oppo but Dober always swings for the fences. 

UFC Fight Night 86 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon comes to Croatia for the very first time on Sunday with UFC Fight Night 86 airing on FOX Sports 1 from Zagreb Arena in Zagreb, Croatia. The main event will be a five-round heavyweight battle as Ben Rothwell puts his 4-fight win streak on the line against former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your line-ups for your Draft Kings team on Sunday.

STUDS

Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400)

Mairbek Taisumov has the highest salary and is the top play on this slate of fighters, and he is also our biggest stud for the fight card. He is a solid 4-1 inside the Octagon, and he has won three straight, all by stoppage. He is also facing an opponent making his UFC debut in Damir Hadzovic. Taisumov deserved a better opponent, but visa issues have limited him to fighting exclusively overseas, and it has hurt his growth inside the division. However, he should be too much for Hadzovic to handle. Hadzovic is a striker at heart while Taisumov mixes a well-rounded approach, and he can score a lot of takedowns and has a lot of power. I expect Taisumov to make easy work of Hadzovic, and with three straight finishes and 23 finishes in his 24 wins, Taisumov is a good bet to add to that. He is at the top of my play list.

Francis Ngannou ($9,800)

There are a lot of heavyweight fights on this card, five in total out of the thirteen fights. That could equal a good number of finishes, or could bring a lot of lackluster action to Zagreb. One heavyweight fighter I like to score a finish is Francis Ngannou. He has a low salary, but his UFC debut was very impressive, and he is facing an opponent in Curtis Blaydes making his UFC debut on short notice. The biggest question facing Ngannou is if he will be able to handle the wrestling of Blaydes, who was a junior-college champion. On the feet, with his striking ability and reach, Ngannou should get the win. He isn’t excellent on the mat, though, and it could pose trouble. I do think the fight will be primarily on the feet and that Ngannou’s power will come out early. I like him to get an early stoppage win.

VALUE PLAYS

Derrick Lewis ($9,100)

At the time of this writing, Derrick Lewis is a betting favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga, yet his salary is very low, that of an underdog, and is in a big contrast to Gonzaga. His salary makes Lewis an excellent value play. Lewis is a big striker with heavy hands and is a finisher. All 14 of his wins have come by stoppage, 13 by knockout. Gonzaga has lost a step and isn’t the same fighter he was, and his chin isn’t what it once was. He can be finished as eight of his ten losses have come by knockout. Gonzaga would be best served to try and grapple with Lewis, but Lewis has excellent defense. Lewis is taking this fight on short notice, but he has been impressive. With it being a heavyweight battle, there is still power on both sides, but Lewis is bigger, more explosive and hard to wear down. I see him getting a big finish.

Nicolas Dalby ($9,000)

Nicolas Dalby is another value play, and it is surprising that he is an underdog against Zak Cummings. Cummings has a lot of experience and is 3-1 inside the Octagon, but he is also taking the fight as an injury replacement without a full training camp. Meanwhile, Dalby is undefeated in 15 career fights, but he is coming off a draw with Darren Till in his last bout. This is a solid striker against wrestler fight as Dalby is very good and fluid on his feet. Cummings does have good power but he will likely lose a striking battle with Dalby, so he will be looking to get the fight to the mat. Dalby lands with a lot of volume, and those strikes will add up if it goes the distance. If it doesn’t go the distance, it likely ends with Dalby getting a finish. His salary makes him a very solid value play.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Lucas Martins ($10,200)

Lucas Martins seemed like a blossoming prospect early in his career, starting off with a 15-1 record. His loss came on short notice in his UFC debut to Edson Barboza, but he won three straight after that. He bounced between weight classes, and has fought in three weight classes so far in the UFC, but he has found a home at 145 pounds. Unfortunately, he has since dropped two straight fights. They came to solid foes in Mirsad Bektic and Darren Elkins, and now he takes a step down in competition to take on Robert Whiteford. Whiteford is 2-2 in his UFC career and is also coming off a loss to Elkins. Martins is the better finisher of the two, but Whiteford can hold his own. Martins has been disappointing recently, and though he is favored to win, I don’t see a finish happening here, and there are a lot of potential finishes on this card. I suggest avoiding Martins on this card.

Igor Pokrajac ($8,800)

Igor Pokrajac being back in the UFC is kind of perplexing. He lost his last five fights inside the Octagon (though one got overturned to a no contest), and he won just four of his 12 UFC bouts. He hasn’t scored a UFC win in almost four years. He has won three fights since being cut from the UFC roster, all by first-round stoppage, and perhaps he’s being brought back just due to the event being in his native Croatia. He is 37-years-old, and his best days are behind him, and he doesn’t get an easy bout in his return when he takes on Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz has his back against the wall with two straight losses, and he knows he needs to win here. The match-up favors him, and he throws a lot more strikes than Pokrajac does. Pokrajac will have a hard time scoring a win here, so I would avoid him at all costs.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Jared Cannonier ($10,700), Francis Ngannou ($9,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,100), Nicolas Dalby ($9,000)

I like four of my fighters to score finishes on a show where they are a lot of chances for finishes with heavyweight bouts and not a lot of UFC experience inside the Octagon. Mairbek Taisumov is my top pick, and with three straight finishes and 23 total in his 24 wins, coupled with the fact he’s facing a UFC newcomer, he is set up for a big win. Jared Cannonier is a heavyweight with a lot of power, and while he hasn’t fought in over 15 months, he hits hard and faces a UFC newcomer as well. Francis Ngannou is a power house, and if he can avoid the ground with Curtis Blaydes, his power will lead him to a finish. Derrick Lewis is a beast, and Gabriel Gonzaga doesn’t have much left in the tank. Short notice or not, Lewis finishes Gonzaga. Nicolas Dalby rounds out my team. He is undefeated, but he is getting a tested veteran in Zak Cummings. Dalby should keep this fight on the feet and get the win, whether by knockout or by going the distance.

PAUL FONTAINE- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Maryna Moroz ($11,200), Ian Entwistle ($9,300), Derrick Lewis ($9,100), Igor Pokrajac ($8,800)

Taisumov is a bonafide G and a certified stud and you…..can’t…..teach….THAT. Sorry, a little WrestleMania hangover. But I do like him and his 4-1 UFC record with 3 straight KO’s here. Pokrajac has something to prove and returns to UFC competition after 3 straight first round finishes and his opponent, Blachowicz, has looked pretty bad in his last couple of fights. Moroz is a sparkplug with a lot of power at 115. Her loss to Valerie Letourneau looks a lot better in hindsight after Letourneau went five rounds  with Joanna Champion. I like her to rebound here with a quick KO win. Speaking of quick KO’s, that’s what Derrick Lewis should get against Gabriel Gonzaga, who I truly believe is done. Rounding out my team is the Brit Ian Entwhistle, who has scored quick submission wins in 4 of his last 5 fights. Coincidentally, his opponent Perez was submitted in his only UFC loss. 

PEACH MACHINE- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Jan Blachowicz ($10,600), Junior Dos Santos ($9,700), Robert Whiteford ($9,200), Derrick Lewis ($9,100)

This is the perfect team. I used all 50,000 exactly. JDS, while on his way out, is still much faster than Rothwell. Speed kills. Same argument for Lewis, and Gonzaga is done. I’ve always like Whiteford, and I like him more at middleweight than welterweight. Taisumov is a killer. He should finish. Blachowicz should be motivated to come out strong against a returning Pokrajac. Who could possibly care about this show…

UFC Fight Night 85 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The Octagon returns to Australia this weekend for UFC Fight Night 85 in Brisbane. The event takes place locally on Sunday, but due to the time difference, airs on Saturday night in the US. The event is headlined by a five-round heavyweight bout between Mark Hunt and former champion Frank Mir. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for the event on Saturday.

STUDS

Alan Patrick ($10,800)

Alan Patrick has a favorable match-up when he gets short-notice replacement Damien Brown in a preliminary bout fight on Saturday. Brown is taking the fight on just a week’s notice after Patrick’s original opponent, Chad Laprise, was shifted to a different bout against Ross Pearson. Brown has won five straight fights to get in the UFC, but sports just a 15-8 overall record. Patrick is coming off his first career loss and is looking to bounce back in a very big way. He has knockout power but has only finished half of his opponents. However, with the short notice that Brown has, it is very favorable for Patrick to get a finish. This could be a fight card where finishes may be hard to come by. You have to take the odds on this one, and Patrick is a very good play for Saturday.

James Te Huna ($10,500)

James Te Huna hasn’t fought since June 2014 and is currently on a 3-fight losing streak where has been finished in the first round in each of those fights. He has been battling injury issues but makes his return on Saturday for his second fight at 185 pounds. It is a must-win fight for Te Huna, and he has a favorable match-up when he takes on Steve Bosse. Bosse fights inside the Octagon for the second time and is looking to bounce back from a spectacular knockout loss from a head kick by Thiago Santos. Bosse probably isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter and is likely only getting a second opportunity due to stepping up on short notice to make his debut. It is a perfect bounce back opportunity for Te Huna, who owns 13 wins by stoppage. I expect him to get his 14th stoppage victory this weekend.

VALUE PLAYS

Ross Pearson ($9,300)

Ross Pearson comes in as an underdog in his fight against Chad Laprise on Saturday, and that already makes him a value play as he is an underdog I think that has an excellent chance at scoring a win. Pearson has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last seven fights, and with coming off a loss, history says he should get the win this time out. He fights Chad Laprise, who was moved to this bout just over a week ago. Coincidentally, Pearson and Laprise both lost their last bouts to the same opponent- Francisco Trinaldo. It was Laprise’s first career loss and he was knocked out in the process. Pearson has power and he does good against opponents with less experience, and he racks up quite a good number of punches as he lands with a lot of volume. At his price point, he has a lot of upside if you choose to put him on your roster. He makes for great value on Saturday.

Dan Kelly ($8,300)

Dan Kelly has one of the lowest salaries of all the fighters on Saturday’s card, and it is interesting considering he is 10-1 in his career. He has a blue-chip prospect for his opponent in Antonio Carlos Junior, but one who struggled against a heavy takedown fighter in Patrick Cummins. Kelly is an Olympian in judo and works excellent from the clinch, and his striking has developed nicely. He doesn’t do anything flashy but he does everything well. Kelly does have an uphill battle in this bout, but he will have the crowd behind him in a huge way. Carlos Junior hasn’t scored an actual win in almost nine months, and he may not pull the trigger as much considering his last fight ended in 30 seconds with multiple eye pokes coming from him. Kelly makes a good target as an upset pick.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Richard Walsh ($9,400)

Richard Walsh is an underdog and has some solid value at his price, but I think he is a fighter to avoid on Saturday. He has a tough opponent in Viscardi Andrade, but Walsh will have the crowd behind him. The two men are almost the same type of fighter, but Walsh has shown he can be put to sleep if a big punch lands. Andrade likes to keep the fight on the feet and strike and Walsh won’t be able to match him there. Walsh may get some takedowns and some top position, but I don’t see him landing a lot of strikes or finishing Andrade. He may get the win but I’m not sure he has enough to justify putting him in your line-up, thus I am avoiding him.

Brendan O’Reilly ($8,200)

Brendan O’Reilly is not getting a lot of respect heading into Saturday’s event as he finds himself as the biggest underdog on the card and has the lowest salary. It is for good reason as this seems to be a fight booked to get his opponent, Alan Jouban, back on the winning path. O’Reilly is a low-level welterweight who has a lot of holes in his game, especially on his feet. Against a big power puncher like Jouban, that is going to be a problem. Jouban is probably the smartest pick on the card in all honesty, but his salary is extremely high. I see O’Reilly being finished and finished quick. I can’t justify putting him on your roster, but anything can happen in a fight.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Alan Jouban ($11,200), James Te Huna ($10,500), Mark Hunt ($10,300), Ross Pearson ($9,300), Dan Kelly ($8,300)

Despite Alan Patrick being my top play above, I am not having him in my line-up. I did when I originally drafted this team, but I made some changes. First off, I’m going with Alan Jouban. I think he makes quick work of Brendan O’Reilly and maximizes his points potential. James Te Huna I see as another fighter who gets a first-round finish. Steve Bosse just isn’t a UFC fighter and that will show again. Mark Hunt is an excellent pick. He has that power and Frank Mir doesn’t have much of a chin to wishstand the punches Hunt will throw. Hunt is also smart enough to avoid going to the ground. I see Hunt getting a stoppage in the first half of the fight. Ross Pearson and Dan Kelly are my two underdog picks. Pearson throws a lot of volume and can easily catch Chad Laprise, but I expect a decision win by him. Dan Kelly is a hail mary pick and he has a tough road to win, but he can get the upset.

PAUL FONTAINE- Dan Hooker ($10,600), Mark Hunt ($10,300), Johnny Case ($9,700), Ross Pearson ($9,300), Rin Nakai ($9,000)

Nakai has only one loss in her career and it’s to the current Bantamweight champion. Tate had more trouble with her than anyone else in her recent streak leading into the title challenge and I think her relentless style will wear down Leslie Smith, leading to a late KO or sub. Johnny Case is on a 12 fight win streak, including 4 in the UFC and I think he’ll continue that run against Jake Matthews, who was exposed in his fight with James Vick. It’s been too much, too soon for Matthews and Case is really tough. Unlike Matthews, I think Hunt will make the locals happy when he knocks out Mir early. I think Hunt is a steal at $10,300. I’m shocked that Ross Pearson is the underdog against Chad Laprise. They’re both coming off losses to Francisco Trinaldo but other than that, Pearson’s faced much tougher competition and is a battle-tested  veteran that has power and Laprise was KO’d last time out. My final pick is another hometown hero in Daniel Hooker. Hooker is unbeaten in Australia with his only two career losses coming in Japan and the US. He should be good  for finishing points as well since his last 7 wins have all been by stoppage.

PEACH MACHINE- Dan Hooker ($10,600), Viscardi Andrade ($10,000), Johnny Case ($9,700), Hector Lombard ($9,600), Rin Nakai ($9,000)

I like Rin Nakai. She took Miesha Tate to task in her most recent tilt. Alliteration is awesome. I like Johnny Case and I don’t like Jake Matthews. Boom. Magny will be mauled by Mombard. Or Lombard. Don’t hate Dan Hooker. Viscardi will be victorious.

UFC 196 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

The biggest UFC show thus far in the year 2016 comes our way on Saturday night with UFC 196 taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the event is the biggest star in the sport, UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, as he moves up two weight classes to take on Nate Diaz in a short-notice situation. Also on the card is UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm defending her championship for the first time against Miesha Tate. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.

STUDS

Conor McGregor ($11,000)

Conor McGregor is the biggest star in the sport of MMA right now and he is the top play this weekend in fantasy MMA. He has won 15 straight fights, and all but one of his seven wins inside the Octagon have come by finish. He won’t have the distraction of a big weight cut this week, and he is fighting a short-notice replacement. Nate Diaz is good, but he hasn’t had a camp. McGregor has shown amazing skills, and due to his mouth and how he presents himself, there are a lot of cases where fans just don’t wanna give him the credit he deserves. This fight is a style fight that is great for him as Diaz is a slow volume striker. McGregor is light on his feet, has great footwork, is an excellent counterpuncher, and is a power striker. He says he is finishing Diaz inside the first round, and it is hard to argue against him with his track record. He is the top play this week. Use him in your line-ups.

Brandon Thatch ($10,900)

Brandon Thatch has struggled recently, dropping his last two fights. However, those losses came to Benson Henderson and Gunnar Nelson, who are top fighters. Before that, Thatch had won eleven of his twelve professional fights, and was a rising prospect. Now, he fights with his potential UFC future on the line. He gets a step back in fighting Siyar Bahadurzada, who is 1-2 inside the Octagon and hasn’t fought since December 2013. Bahadurzada is a tough opponent, but he hasn’t shown much that can convince me he will be a tough challenge for Thatch, and that is without factoring in the long layoff. Thatch has scored all of his wins by stoppage, and all in the first round. He is a big favorite and has a high salary, but he is an excellent play on Saturday night.

VALUE PLAYS

Gian Villante ($9,200)

Gian Villante is looking to score his second straight win after a brutal knockout win over Anthony Perosh in November. He definitely goes all out in his fights and the knockout is always prevelant in his bouts, whether he is on the winning or losing end. Villante has struggled to get a solid run going since coming over to the UFC, but he has a favorable bout in his hands on Saturday night. He is taking on Ilir Latifi, who is a knockout artist himself. However, Latifi struggles with heavy hitters, which is what Villante is. Latifi also fought just six weeks ago, so this is a quick turnaround even though he won in just 28 seconds. Villante is worth a look at his salary and a knockout win is always in the cards when he steps inside the Octagon.

Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

Tom Lawlor fights for the second time since making the move back up to 205 pounds when he takes on Corey Anderson, and it is a real mystery why he is such a big underdog, which makes his salary an interesting one for this card. Lawlor has won three of his last four fights, with the three wins coming by stoppage, and the loss to Francis Carmont was a fight that should have gone in his favor. Anderson has scored some good wins in the UFC, but hasn’t had a finish in his last three wins, and Lawlor is the best fighter he has fought so far in the UFC. Lawlor has a strong wrestling game, good submissions and showed off his underrated knockout power in his finish of Gian Villante in his last fight. Best of all, he is cheap, and he is the best bet for an underdog win on Saturday. He has extremely solid value.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500)

Valentina Shevchenko had an impressive UFC debut, defeating Sarah Kaufman by split decision on very short notice. She is 12-1 in her MMA career and had a 56-2 record in her kickboxing career. However, she gets a huge step up in competition when she takes on Amanda Nunes on Saturday night. It may be too early in her UFC career for Shevchenko to be taking on a top-five opponent, and Nunes has shown to be a finisher. All of her wins have come by finish, but she has been finished in three of her four losses. Shevchenko is a live underdog, but it is going to be a tough match-up for her. I don’t think she wins, which makes her a fighter to avoid on Saturday night.

Darren Elkins ($9,300)

Darren Elkins has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last six UFC bouts, a far cry from when he was on the brink of title contention having a five-fight win streak. History says he is set for a loss on Saturday night when he takes on Chas Skelly. Skelly himself is a quality fighter, with a 15-1 record in his career. Elkins is also known as a grinding fighter, preferring to take opponents down and smother them. He will have trouble doing that with Skelly, who is a strong wrestler himself. Elkins has also scored just one true stoppage in the UFC, and that was three years ago. His history makes him an easy fighter to avoid and he will have all sorts of trouble getting the win on Saturday.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Amanda Nunes ($9,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

Everyone I have on my team has been mentioned in some form above. It is hard to bet against proven track records with finishers, and I feel all five of these fighters are going to score big finishes on Saturday. Conor McGregor has been nothing short of amazing in his UFC career, and the fight against Nate Diaz is favorable for him. Brandon Thatch has won all of his professional fights by finish in the first round, and his opponent hasn’t fought in over two years. Amanda Nunes has also won all of her fights by stoppage, and she is on quite a tear inside the Octagon. Gian Villante and Tom Lawlor are big punches with exciting fights, and they fight opponents who have been finished in the past. I see all of them scoring stoppage wins on Saturday night in what should be a fun event.

PAUL FONTAINE- Julian Erosa ($10,500), Erick Silva ($10,300), Ilir Latifi ($10,200), Jim Miller ($10,000), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

Erick Silva fights are usually quick and violent so the question is whether Silva will be the one to go down or the one to put someone out. I’m betting on the latter. Ilir Latifi is one of the strongest guys in his division outside of Rumble Johnson and I like him to put away Gian Villante early. Julian Erosa looked impressive on the most recent season of the The Ultimate Fighter and even better in his official UFC debut in December. He should continue that here. My lineup wouldn’t be complete without our very own Tom Lawlor who I think is a steal at $8,800. My final pick is Jim Miller. His opponent Diego Sanchez, is tough to put away but will take a lot of shot from the tenacious Miller, earning me a lot of points.  

PEACH MACHINE- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800), Miesha Tate ($8,600)

McGregor will murder Diaz. We will see the first Octagon death… I don’t understand why everyone is favoring Holm wildly. I expect a long match with a lot of ground work where Tate comes out on top… Villante looked great before getting unexpectedly KO’d by Filthy Tom. I don’t think ol stubby arms Latifi can snatch a win, or a purse (lol), from the hands of big Gian… I like Lawlor. I haven’t been impressed by Anderson. He wins, but Lawlor fights FILTHY!… Thatch is going to rebound from his loss to Gunnar Nelson. He’s on a two fight skid, but I’m predicting his turn around here. 

UFC Fight Night 84 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

Posted on by Ryan Frederick

It’s another fight week for the UFC as the Octagon heads over to London, England on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 84, headlined by a five-round middleweight bout as former UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva takes on long-time contender Michael Bisping. It is another chance to earn some money playing fantasy MMA, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-up for Saturday’s event.

STUDS

Tom Breese ($11,400)

Tom Breese has the highest salary of all 26 fighters on the UFC Fight Night 84 card, making him the top play for this event, and for a real good reason. Breese is a perfect 9-0 in his career, with all nine wins coming by stoppage. He has six first-round finishes, and both of his UFC wins have come by TKO in the first round. He is a rising prospect in the welterweight division who comes from a top camp, the Tristar Gym in Montreal, and he has heavy hands and good submissions. He also has an opponent he is expected to run through in Keita Nakamura. Nakamura is riding a five-fight win streak and is coming off his first UFC win in September, but he is just 1-3 inside the Octagon. Nakamura was actually losing his last fight until pulling out a late submission. This is a fight to build up Breese even further, and I fully expect another first-round stoppage win for him. Play him as your top play.

Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200)

Makwan Amirkhani made a big splash in his first year in the UFC in 2015. He fought just twice, but won both fights in the first round, and has spent less than two minutes inside the Octagon over those two fights. His UFC debut was a seven-second knockout win, and he followed that up with a submission win in 1:41. The man dubbed “Mr.Finland” is a fighter to keep an eye on, and he has a solid track record. He is 12-2 in his career, so he has proven to be beatable, but ten of his 12 wins have come by stoppage. He has also moved to the SBG Ireland camp in preparation for this fight, training alongside the likes of Conor McGregor. He will have the best coaching he has experienced thus far, and he’s fighting an opponent he doesn’t seem to particularly like in Mike Wilkinson. That will add fuel to the fire. Wilkinson is 9-1 in his career, but hasn’t fought since October 2014. This one is made for Amirkhani to get another finish win.

VALUE PLAYS

Michael Bisping ($8,600)

I’m going to start off by saying, as you will see below, I have his opponent, Anderson Silva, on my roster, which says how I think the fight will go. However, at his salary, in a five-round fight, Bisping is a very interesting play. Silva hasn’t fought since January 2015, and is coming off a suspension following his horrific leg break in December 2013. He is getting older, and there are questions as to whether Silva has any left. Having Bisping on your team is banking on the fact you, as a fight fan, think Silva is a shot fighter. Many feel this way. Bisping may not finish Silva with one punch, but what he has is volume. He lands a lot, and this fight could drag on for five rounds, giving him more opportunities to add on to your point total. I’m not playing him on my roster, but his salary is excellent value, and would allow you to spend up on some higher-priced fighters.

Thales Leites ($8,400)

Thales Leites is an interesting play as I see his salary just too low. He is very undervalued in his fight against Gegard Mousasi, and I see Mousasi at $11,000 being too high. This is why Leites makes my value play list. Leites is 5-1 since returning to the UFC, and his lone loss came to Michael Bisping in a very close fight in July. He also has the fight style that has given Mousasi a lot of trouble in the past- a solid striker with an excellent submission game. He could give Mousasi fits, and Mousasi is coming off the first knockout loss of his career in his last fight. Leites has just too low of a salary to not consider him being on your roster. He will be on mine, and he is a solid value play.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Krzysztof Jotko ($10,100)

Krzysztof Jotko is an impressive 16-1 in his career, and 3-1 inside the Octagon. However, of those 16 wins, only six have come by stoppage, and he hasn’t finished an opponent since September 2012. He doesn’t rack up a lot of points either, outside of his dominant win over Tor Troeng, and he tends to have close fights. He has a solid opponent in Bradley Scott, who is tough to finish and has been a finisher himself in his career, as all of his wins have come by finish. Scott is actually a solid play for the event himself. Jotko just doesn’t strike me as a fighter looking to finish, just one who wants a win. There are a lot of finishers on this event, thus making Jotko an easy fighter to avoid.

Norman Parke ($8,700)

Norman Parke has been in way too many close fights to my liking, and is an easy fighter to pass up on this event. His salary is tempting since it gives you some space to spend up on your roster, and let’s face it, you have to have a lower salary fighter on your team. However, he has a tough match-up against Rustam Khabilov, a strong takedown artist, and this is the type of fight Parke comes up short in. Parke has just one finish win in the UFC, which came against an opponent who is 0-5 in the UFC in his career. He isn’t going to finish Khabilov, and I don’t even see him getting the win. He is an easy one to pass on, and don’t get tempted by his low salary. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

OUR LINEUPS:

RYAN FREDERICK- Tom Breese ($11,400), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Marlon Vera ($8,900), Thales Leites ($8,400)

Tom Breese is the big play of the event and I’m having him on my roster. He is an excellent prospect, and you can’t go against someone who has won by finish in every one of his fights. He has an excellent match-up to get another finish. Next I have Anderson Silva. It does feel like a risky play at his salary, but if he hasn’t lost a step, I think he finishes Michael Bisping. The big question is making sure he isn’t a shot fighter at his age and after the rough past few years. Makwan Amirkhani is also on my team, and his UFC track record with two wins in a less than two combined minutes is hard to overlook. He also has an opponent he is motivated to put away quickly, and he is an excellent prospect. I’m rounding out my team with Marlon Vera and Thales Leites. Vera got a finish in his last fight, and he’s fighting Davey Grant, who hasn’t fought since November 2013 and is coming off being stopped in his lone UFC fight. Vera has a solid shot at the upset. Thales Leites’ salary is just too low, and he has a style to defeat Gegard Mousasi. I’m picking Mousasi to win the fight, but Leites has the ability to get the upset.

PAUL FONTAINE- Gegard Mousasi ($11,000), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Brad Pickett ($9,000), Marlon Vera ($8,900)

If my picks in recent weeks are any indication, your best bet is probably to pick the exact opposite of my team! But I will try and make a case here for why I’m going with these five. Silva is a points fighter who does have deceptive power. I don’t see any way that Bisping knocks out Silva. So this fight is either going to go the full five rounds, meaning Silva gets a lot of points for striking, or Silva finishes him at some point. Either way, he should rack up some point. Mousasi is a front runner who always looks great in fights against guys ranked below him as is the case her. He should dominate Leites on the way to an early finish. I’m taking a bit of a chance with Brad Pickett, who’s on a 3 fight losing streak but his opponent Rivera has been finished in each of his last two losses and Pickett does have finishing ability at 135. I’m really surprised Marlon Viera is an underdog against Davey Grant, who hasn’t found in 2 1/2 years. Vera is coming off a 2nd round submission win and the group of fighters that he came in with from the first season of TUF Latin America has done very well in UFC. I like him to score another stoppage win here. My last pick is Mr Finland, who I think is a lock to score an early finish. He could be the future of the Featherweight division as the man is extremely popular, oozes charisma and has scary finishing ability…the Finnish Conor if you will. 

PEACH MACHINE- Anderson Silva ($10,800), Davey Grant ($10,500), Francisco Rivera ($10,400), Bradley Scott ($9,300), Thales Leites ($8,400)

I like Anderson Silva. Bisping will be able to hang for a while and he’ll engage Silva and get knocked out late… I like Leites. Mousasi is coming off a bad KO, and hasn’t looked good… Rivera will KO Pickett but this should be a fun one round fight… I’m taking Scott more as a pick against Jotko who was not impressive last time I saw him… I’m taking Grant more as a pick against Vera, but I don’t know anything about either guy, I just hate Brandon Vera so much it extends to anyone with that last name. I went 4-1 last week but I’m not as confident this week.