Final ratings are in for Saturday night’s UFC on Fox show from Vancouver and for the first time, the final number actually came in lower than the overnight number at 1,983,000 viewers.
There are a couple of reasons for this, discussed in part by Dave Meltzer on Sunday’s Wrestling Observer Radio show. First, the main event ended at 10 PM EST on the nose, meaning there wasn’t the typical audience growth that usually grows with a longer main event that goes past the top of the hour.
Second, and perhaps more relevant, the originally reported overnight number was for the network as a whole. Because some markets aired preseason NFL football in lieu of UFC, those NFL numbers were included in the initial rating. The final number measures only those stations which aired the UFC show.
Saturday’s show “beat” the previous record low for a Fox UFC show which was 2.04 million viewers on July 2013, an event headlined by a Demetrious Johnson flyweight title bout with John Moraga.
Welcome to F4WOnline.com’s live coverage of UFC On FOX 21: Maia vs. Condit from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
The event is headlined by a five-round welterweight bout between top contenders as Demian Maia takes on former Interim UFC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit. In the co-main event, former UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis fights for the first time at 145 pounds as he takes on Charles Oliveira. Plus, Paige VanZant makes her return to the Octagon to take on Bec Rawlings.
Follow along with our live coverage of the event beginning at 5 PM eastern time with preliminary action all the way thru the main card.
LIGHTWEIGHTS JEREMY KENNEDY (8-0, 0-0 UFC) VS. ALESSANDRO RICCI (10-3, 0-0 UFC)
Both these guys are Canadian and both are making their UFC debuts. Even though Ricci has three losses they have all come against guys with big-league experience. Kennedy has racked up his perfect record against no-names on the Canadian and Taiwan regional scene.
Ricci took this fight on five days notice. Kennedy is the big crowd favorite, being from suburban Vancouver. Brian Stann joins Mike Goldberg for commentary for this show as Joe Rogan is pretty much only doing PPVs with his new deal.
Kennedy is 11 years younger than Ricci and has a slight reach advantage. Yves Lavigne is the referee.
ROUND 1 – Kennedy trying to make it a clinch game early, controlling Ricci on the cage. Crowd chanting JUNIOR BACON CHEESEBURGER, which apparently is Kennedy’s nickname. Sounded like KENNEDY to me.
Kennedy finally got a takedown with 30 seconds left after controlling the clinch all round. Ricci got right up though. Very close round, 10-9 Kennedy
ROUND 2 – Significant strikes are 23-15 through 1:15 of round 2 for Kennedy. Kennedy starting this round the same way much of Round 2 went. He did get a takedown at 1:45
Ricci up quickly but Kennedy still controlling things and doing more damage here from the clinch. Kennedy got another takedown at 3:30 and controlled things the whole way up until then.
Kennedy 3 of 9 on takedowns through 4:30 of Round 2. Ricci has done almost nothing this round though. Kennedy with a really nice punch combo right before the round ended. Easy 10-9 Kennedy, 20-18
ROUND 3 – Ricci looks exhausted coming out while Kennedy is still fresh. Ref warns them to work 1:00 in as they started off in the clinch and nothing happening.’
Kennedy with 7:17 of clinch control through 13 minutes of the fight and gets another takedown at 2:15. Ricci easily up again and they’re right back to the clinch.
Kennedy with another takedown at 3:30 but Ricci with a guillotine attempt. Kennedy easily escapes it. Crowd starting to boo a bit even though their guy is winning, mostly cause this fight is awful.
Ricci got up briefly but Kennedy took him right down again for his fifth takedown. He’s doing absolutely nothing on top though, not even trying to advance or land strikes. Enough to win the round and the fight though. 10-9 Kennedy, 30-27
WINNER – JEREMY KENNEDY (9-0) by unanimous decision (30-27 x 2; 29-28)
HOT TAKE – Terrible fight. Kennedy won but he’s going to get lit up by most guys in this division. Ricci took the fight on short notice and might get another chance but he’s not really UFC caliber either.
149 LB. CATCHWEIGHT (LAPRISE MISSED WEIGHT) CHAD LAPRISE (10-2, 3-2 UFC) VS. THIBAULT GOUTI (11-2, 0-2 UFC)
Canada vs France here with Laprise having the hometown advantage. Both guys are on two fight losing streaks so this could be loser leaves town.
Gouti is slightly younger and a has a 1.5 in reach advantage. Laprise of course missed weight pretty badly. Kevin Dornan is the ref.
ROUND 1 – Laprise dropped Gouti with a punch 1:30 and all over him. Gouti briefly up but gets dropped again and turtles so the ref stepped in to call it.
WINNER – CHAD LAPRISE (11-2) by TKO (punches) at 1:36
HOT TAKE – Well, that’s it for Gouti. With a couple wins in Europe he could get brought back at some point, I suppose. Laprise did what he had to do. If he missed weight like this again he might have to go back to 170, where he won the TUF Nations show.
In Laprise’s post-fight interview he apologized to Gouti, the fans and Joe Silva for missing weight and said that he’ll be going back to 170. He put over his coaches, including the late Shawn Tompkins in the most Canadian of Canadian accents you could imagine.
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX- 6 PM ET/3 PM PT)
LIGHTWEIGHTS SHANE CAMPBELL (12-5, 1-3 UFC) VS. FELIPE SILVA (7-0, 0-0 UFC)
Campbell is the last Canadian on the card here in the third fight on the show. Silva is Brazilian and making his UFC debut.
Campbell is 3 years younger, at 29, but is giving up six inches of reach to Silva. Silva KO’d a former UFC fighter in the first round in his last fight. Big John is the referee.
ROUND 1 – Silva looking really crisp with his striking and drops Campbell with his first extended combination. Campbell down and Silva all over him until the ref stops it.
WINNER – FELIPE SILVA (8-0) by TKO (punches) at 1:13
HOT TAKE – Silva looked really good here. He’s got crazy power which you could see in the limited time he was in there and he’s going to have a reach advantage against most guys in the division. Campbell may get another chance but with 4 losses in 5 UFC fights, maybe not.
In his post-fight promo, Silva didn’t want to call any specific fighter out, saying it was too early in his UFC career to do that, but said he really wants to be on the November show in Brazil.
MIDDLEWEIGHTS GARRETH MCLELLAN (13-4, 1-2 UFC) VS. ALESSIO DI CHIRICO (9-1, 0-1 UFC)
South Africa vs USA is up next. Di Chirico’s perfect record was spoiled in his UFC debut in April. McLellan is fighting for the first time in North America after a long career in Europe and his native continent of Africa.
Di Chirico is 7 years younger, at 26, and has a 2 inch reach advantage. Ref is Kevin Dornan once again, who gives the 4 Horseman hand signal after McLellan does the John Cena salute. Not making that up.
ROUND 1 – Di Chirico with the clear advantage on the feet early. McLellan throwing a variety of kicks but Di Chirico blocking or checking most of them.
McLellan landed a nice uppercut that opened up a cut under the left eye of Di Chirico. Di Chirico with a 16-4 advantage in head strikes landed through 4 minutes.
McLellan stuffed on a late takedown attempt. 10-9 Di Chirico
ROUND 2 – McLellan took him down to open but Di Chiricho gut up quickly and then got a takedown of his own and blitzed him with ground and pound.
McLellan weathered it but there’s some pretty heavy bleeding around his right ear from the elbows of Di Chirico. McLellan visibly tired, though, halfway through the round.
Di Chirico got another takedown at 3:00 but didn’t do any damage and McLellan up. Di Chirico’s punches are much slower now and don’t have the power behind him they did earlier.
Both guys landing heavy shots from the clinch in the last minute. Di Chirico with a 22-12 advantage in significant strikes. Di Chirico grabbed the fence to avoid a takedown but the ref missed it. 10-9 Di Chirico, 20-18 overall
ROUND 3 – Brian Stann said that in looking at the replay it appeared Di Chirico didn’t grab the fence in the last minute there. Di Chirico got an early takedown and moved right into mount.
McLellan with a nice escape and ended up in top position. He did nothing on the ground though and Di Chirico got up pretty easily.
Both guys just throwing haymakers and landing 3:00 in. McLellan looks dead on his feet but not really in danger of being finished just yet.
McLellan’s face is a bloody mess and Di Chirico’s white trunks are red with his blood as well. McLellan got a late takedown but seems content to lay and pray. 10-9 Di Chirico, 30-27
WINNER – ALESSIO DI CHIRICO (10-1) by split decision (29-28 x 2, 28-29)
HOT TAKE – I’ve seen (a lot) worse but 29-28 McLellan was a bad scorecard there. Third round was close I suppose. Neither of these guys will ever contend for a title. Di Chirico earned another fight though.
McLellan is just not a UFC-level fighter and I’ve never thought he was. I’m baffled how he still keeps getting fights.
Di Chirico sent shout-outs to his friends and family in Italy after the tragedy there earlier this week.
Barzola is from Peru and was the season 2 winner of TUF Latin America. Bochniak is the first American on this card and lost his UFC debut after coming in with a lot of hype.
Their heights and reach identical but Barzola is 2 years younger at 27. Dan Miragliotta is the ref for the first time tonight.
ROUND 1 – First couple of minutes very even on the feet. Barzola with a 21-5 advantage in strikes landed through 4 minutes.
Bochniak came on a bit at the end but Barzola did enough to win a boring first round. 10-9 Barzola
ROUND 2 – Bochniak may have hurt himself landing his foot after throwing a kick early in the first. First half of the round is almost exactly the same as the first. Barzola with maybe a slight advantage.
Bochniak with 12 leg kicks landed through 3:30 of round 2. None of them have done significant damage though as Barzola is moving exactly the same as he did at the start of the fight.
Bochniak had a nice punch combo at the 4:00 mark that may be enough to steal the round. Barzola got a late takedown though and I don’t know how to score this one. I rarely do this but 10-10, 20-19 overall for Barzola
ROUND 3 – Total strikes landed through 11 minutes were 58-24 for Barzola. Bochniak has probably landed the harder strikes though.
Barzola with his first takedown attempt at 2:30 but stuffed after they had fairly even stand-up again to start the round. Bochniak has a mouse under his right eye.
Crowd getting restless as they’re basically just dancing around now. Barzola with a very slight striking advantage but again very close. Bochniak coming on late in the round as he probably senses he’s down in the fight. 10-9 Barzola, 30-28 overall
WINNER – KYLE BOCHNIAK (7-1) by split decision (29-28 x 2; 27-30)
HOT TAKE – All 3 rounds were very close so any score was okay. Bochniak looked baffled when the 30-27 score went against him. Both guys are prospects but have a long way to go. They each fought like they were trying not to lose which is going to hurt them moving forward.
They are airing a ton of commercials for UFC 203 and heavily featuring CM Punk. They’ve also showed clips from the reality show so it’s clear that he’s the focus of that show in terms of drawing casuals.
MIDDLEWEIGHTS SAM ALVEY (27-8 1 NC, 4-3 UFC) VS. KEVIN CASEY (9-4-1 2 NC, 1-2-1 2 NC UFC)
A battle of Americans here although Alvey has fought in Canada before and always puts the fans over. Alvey said in the pre-fight video package that Casey’s jaw “looks pretty punchable”.
Alvey is 3 inches taller but Casey has a 1.5 inch reach advantage. Casey is 35 years and 5 years older than Alvey. Yves Lavigne is the ref for the 2nd time tonight.
ROUND 1 – First couple minutes was Alvey stalking Casey and Casey landing occasional punches or kicks while retreating. Alvey hasn’t landed a single punch through 2:15.
Casey took it to the clinch and they basically had a stalemate for the next couple of minutes. Ref didn’t even threaten to separate them, which is unusual because neither guy doing anything.
Alvey landed a couple knees to the body, which may have been his first strikes landed and then closed with a flurry of punches that stole the round in my eyes. 10-9 Alvey
ROUND 2 – Alvey’s corner told him to pick up the pace between rounds. He does come out throwing early and also lands a couple of leg kicks.
Alvey dropped Casey with a combo at 2:00 and then backed up, forcing Casey back up. Alvey with another combo around 3:30 and Casey looks like he’s just waiting to get knocked out.
Alvey with a 19-6 advantage in head strikes landed through 9 minutes. Alvey dropped him with another combo at 4:30 and went to the ground with punches and elbows. Casey barely defending the ref stopped it just before the round was going to end.
WINNER – SAM ALVEY (28-8) by TKO (punches and elbows) at 4:56 of the 2nd round
HOT TAKE – Another impressive finish from Alvey. That should be it for Casey as he just has no heart. Not sure why Alvey waited so long to throw punches because it seemed at any point in this fight that he could’ve finished it.
Alvey put over the Canadian fans. He then put over his wife for taking care of 3 kids, including a one-month old, and also taking care of him during his fight camp.
Then he asked for a fight on the Manchester show against anyone at 185 or 205. Are you listening Tom Lawlor?
Stann then asked him to talk about his wife and the excellent corner job she did. Alvey gave his wife credit for scouting his opponent, finding him a fight team and said she knows more about MMA than he does. Crowd loved this.
MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)
LIGHTWEIGHTS JOE LAUZON (26-11, 13-8 UFC) VS. JIM MILLER (26-8 1 NC, 15-7 1 NC UFC)
This is a rematch from UFC 155 in what was an all-time great fight. Both guys scored 1st round KO’s at UFC 200 and this has fight of the night written all over it as they’ve combined for 24 post-fight award bonuses.
Both guys are 32. Lauzon has a 2 inch height and a very slight reach advantage. Big John will officiate.
ROUND 1 – Lauzon with a submission attempt 15 seconds in, taking Miller down with a leg lock but he got out of it. Both guys throwing at a pretty heavy pace early one they got back to the standup.
Lauzon definitely the aggressor but Miller landing a lot of strikes while retreating. Miller falls down after missing a spinning back fist and Lauzon into his guard at 2:30.
Lauzon pretty active from the top, mixing in punches, elbows and even knees to the body. Miller gets to his feet at 3:45.
Total strikes are 29-21 for Lauzon through 4 minutes. Lauzon defended a takedown attempt with 15 seconds left that saved the round for him. 10-9 Lauzon
ROUND 2 – Miller has a 26-15 advantage in distance strikes landed through 30 seconds of round 2 and he’s closed the gap in total strikes to where they’ve even. Lauzon backs up Miller to the cage with punches at 1:30 but Miller punches his way right back to the center.
Miller with small cuts on his forehead and around his nose but no heavy blood yet. Miller really landing a lot of counter punches.
Lauzon with a knockdown at 3:15. He’s landed 20 body strikes through 8 1/2 minutes. Lauzon with a Kimura attempt but gives it up quickly.
Miller working for a triangle from the bottom. He gives that up but lands a lot of head punches. Lauzon finished on top and probably did enough to take the round but it was close. 10-9 Lauzon, 20-18
ROUND 3 – Huge ovation for both guys to start the round. Miller all over Lauzon with punches to start, way more aggressive than he’s been the entire fight but Lauzon not anywhere close to going down.
Lauzon’s face showing the effects of that flurry from Miller and Miller now with a big cut under his left eye. Lauzon with a takedown at 1:45.
Lauzon not doing a lot of damage from top position but working very hard to advance position. Miller to his feet at 3:30. Lauzon with a late takedown that may cinch the round and the fight if any judges had it even after 2.
Lauzon into mount right before the round ended and an armbar attempt at the buzzer. 10-9 Lauzon, 30-27. Fight was way closer than that score would indicate.
WINNER – JIM MILLER (27-8) by split decision (29-28 x 2; 28-29)
HOT TAKE – All 3 rounds were close so again, any score was possible. This was definitely fight of the night but not quite a fight of the year candidate. Neither guy is a top contender but we should be able to see them in fun fights for another couple of years at least.
Great way to kick off the main card. Miller says that Lauzon said “no more” to him after the fight so we won’t get a third fight.
We are back to international conflict here after a couple of USA vs USA fights. USA takes on Australia in a strawweight fight.
VanZant is just 22 and 5 years younger than Rawlings. Rawling has a two inch height advantage but VanZant with one more inch of reach. Dan Miragliotta is the ref.
PVZ runs across the Octagon to start but Rawlings very quickly establishes control. VanZant doing a lot of dancing, ironically, but Rawlings landing more strikes through 2 minutes.
Crowd reacting big time to a lot of Paige’s moves but the spectacular kicks are missing by a large margin. Rawling very patient and waiting for her opportunities and landing at an efficient clip.
Total strikes are 22-9 for Rawlings through 4 minutes. VanZant landed her only combo of punches with about 15 seconds left but not enough to take the round. 10-9 Rawlings
ROUND 2 – PVZ dropped her with a flying head kick and finished Rawlings with punches on the ground.
WINNER – PAIGE VANZANT (7-2) by KO (kick) at 17 seconds of the seconds round
HOT TAKE – Well that finish came out of nowhere. Seemed like a bit of an early stoppage but the way that Rawlings went down, it can certainly be justified. VanZant has a lot of work to do if she’s going to keep fighting though because Rawlings was dominating her before she got caught.
VanZant said she had a terrible fight camp and almost pulled out of the fight. She asked for a fight on the Sacramento card later this year which she will certainly get.
CM Punk was interviewed via satellite from Chicago. Punk says he doesn’t think the crowd or the cameras or anything will affect him. He will be nervous to be in a fight for the first time.
Punk says that he’s not doing this to become a star, he’s doing this because he wanted to do it. He thinks that if Gall is focused on that, it will be to his disadvantage.
He says that no one has managed to put any kind of pressure on Mickey Gall in his fights and that’s what he intends to do. Much better interview than the one on Fight Pass earlier this year.
FEATHERWEIGHTS (#7 LW) ANTHONY PETTIS (18-5, 5-4 UFC) VS. (#6) CHARLES OLIVEIRA (21-5 1 NC, 9-5 1 NC UFC)
Pettis is dropping down a weight class after two straight loss at 155. Oliviera has won 6 of his last 7 with the only loss being something of a fluke to Max Holloway.
Oliveira is 26 and 3 years younger. He also had a 1.5 inch reach advantage. Yves Lavigne is the ref for the third time tonight.
ROUND 1 – Oliveira caught a kick to open and used it on a takedown attempt. After a minute of struggling on the cage, he gave it up.
Oliveira took him down at 1:45 and immediately took Pettis’ back. Pettis swept into top position and the crowd exploded. Pettis got to his feet and forced Oliveira to follow.
Pettis dropped Oliveira with a couple of body kicks and went into his guard, landing a ton of punches. Pettis moved into side control fairly easily as Oliveira is clearly rocked.
Total strikes are 24-9 for Pettis through 3:45. Oliveira to his feet and got another takedown. He immediately took Pettis’ back but again Pettis escaped and ended up in top position.
Pettis landing a ton of punches i the last 30 seconds with no defense from Oliveira but he rides out the round. 10-8 Pettis
ROUND 2 – Oliveira went for a takedown to start but Pettis ended up on top. He quickly stood up as he wants no part of Oliveira’s ground game, despite his advantage in Round 1.
Oliveira’s midsection is bright red from the Pettis body kicks earlier. He’s also got some bruising under his left eye.
Oliveira way more aggressive this round, landing a lot of punches standing. Pettis keeping up with him though. Oliveira takes his back standing and drags him to the mat at 2:45.
Oliveira secured a body lock while working for a rear naked choke. Pettis again escaped and swept into position. He went to his feet at 4:00 and Oliveira followed.
Both guys landing super hard strikes in the last minute and Oliveira got another takedown right before the bell, 10-9 Oliveira, 19-18 Pettis overall
ROUND 3 – Oliveira got another takedown to open the round. Pettis with an armbar attempt from the bottom but Oliveira defends it and takes the back.
Pettis again escapes and ends up on top in north/south position. Oliveira to his feet and took Pettis down again but Pettis grabbed him in a guillotine and got the tap.
WINNER – ANTHONY PETTIS (19-5) by submission (guillotine) at 1:49 of the third
HOT TAKE – That couldn’t have gone better for Pettis. He beat Oliveira at his own game and immediately established himself as a contender. He should get a big name next like Frankie Edgar or Max Holloway as he’s definitely a future title contender. Great fight.
Pettis admitted that he was a little gassed out at the end. Stann tried to get him to call someone else but all he would say is that he was here to win the belt.
More CM Punk hype as they showed clips of the reality show, including some still shots from his pro wrestling days. They showed clips of Mickey Gall in training and talking as well.
There’s been virtually no hype for the heavyweight title fight or top contender’s fight on the same show. Clearly this is being marketed around Punk.
WELTERWEIGHTS (#3) DEMIAN MAIA (23-6, 17-6 UFC) VS. (#4) CARLOS CONDIT (30-9, 7-5 UFC)
Maia is a former middleweight title contender who has a well-established rep as the best grappler in all of MMA. Condit formerly held the interim welterweight title and the WEC title and is coming off a fight of the year candidate in a title fight with Robbie Lawler in January.
Condit is the clear crowd favorite in Vancouver. Maia is walking a little gingerly on the way to the cage.
Maia is 6 years older, at 38. Condit has a 1 inch height and 3.5 inch reach advantage. Big John is the ref for the main event.
ROUND 1 – Well, Maia got it to the ground 45 seconds in with a takedown. Maia took his back at 1:30. Full body lock and rear naked choke from Maia and Condit taps.
WINNER – DEMIAN MAIA (24-6) by submission (rear naked choke) at 1:52
HOT TAKE – The look on Condit’s face after the ref stopped it tells me that he’ll probably retire after this fight, which is a shame. Maia did what everyone knew he that he could do and is certainly in line for a title shot. Whether he gets it or not, who knows?
Maia put over Condit after the fight, saying that he thought that he was the uncrowned champ. He says he’s earned a title shot and hopes he’ll get a title shot.
He says that he wants the winner of Tyron Woodley and Steven Thompson, which Bryan Stann says is the next title fight in the division. I’m not sure Woodley is aware of that.
Condit got interview time as well. Stann asked him if he would return to the Octagon. Condit said he doesn’t know what the future holds but put over Maia and says it just wasn’t his night.
The UFC returns to Canada this weekend for their next event on the FOX network as UFC On FOX 21 takes place on Saturday from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. The event is headlined by a five-round bout in the welterweight division as contenders Demian Maia and Carlos Condit do battle.
If you’re looking to score some money playing daily fantasy for Saturday night’s event, below is advice on some of the fighters featured on the card.
TOP PLAY
Anthony Pettis ($10,400)
After a long time competing as one of the best lightweights in the world, former UFC and WEC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis is dropping to 145 pounds in an attempt to revitalize his career and make a run at becoming a champion in the featherweight division. Pettis is coming in having lost three straight fights, which may make him a weird choice as the top fantasy play to some readers. However, when Pettis is on top of his game, he is one of the best fighters in the world. He hasn’t been at the top of his game recently, for whatever reasons, and perhaps the move to 145 pounds is what he needs to get him going again.
For his debut in the weight class, Pettis will be taking on Charles Oliveira in the co-main event of Saturday night’s card. Oliveira is one of the most pure talented fighters in the division, but one who hasn’t quite put everything together yet and get him into true title contention status. He has been on the cusp for some time, but every time he has that match-up that could propel him into the spotlight, he falls. He is a fighter who wins fights he’s expected to win, and loses fights he’s expected to lose, and hasn’t won that big one that he was supposed to lose. Going by the betting odds and the salaries for fighters on this card, he’s expected to lose, so this is his shot at scoring an upset. Pettis is going to have to come right after Oliveira if he’s going to take this win. Oliveira tends to fold under pressure, and while he has shown solid striking, Pettis’ flashy style is much more dangerous.
I also don’t think Oliveira is on the same level that the fighters who have defeated Pettis are on. Pettis has nasty kicks, and if he adjusts to the weight cut quickly, he has the chance to make this a quick night. I like Pettis as the top play.
BEST VALUE
Carlos Condit ($10,000)
Carlos Condit came super close to becoming the new UFC Welterweight Champion in January, losing a very close decision to then-champion Robbie Lawler. There was lots of talk that Condit was going to retire following the bout, but Condit returns on Saturday night for the headline position when he takes on Demian Maia. Condit brushed off the retirement talk saying he still loves what he’s doing, and he’s among the best welterweights in the world.
His five-round bout with Maia is going to pit your classic match-up in striker against grappler. Condit also has conditioning that is very hard for 170-pounders to match, and he can go for 25 minutes without getting tired. In fact, the longer a fight goes, the more in rhythm Condit begins to get with his huge arsenal of strikes. His opponent, Maia, has only been in three five-round fights, and he is 1-2 in those bouts. He lost decisions to Anderson Silva and Jake Shields, and won a lackluster decision over Ryan LaFlare. Maia is solid for a couple of rounds, but he begins to fade as the fight wears on. He is the best jiu-jitsu practiconer in the welterweight division, and he will be looking to take Condit down early, and he likely will. Condit is good at scrambling to his feet, and Maia uses a lot of energy holding opponents down.
Condit is very tough to submit, and if he can avoid the early grappling onslaught from Maia, it will open his striking late. As Maia begins to fade, Condit will be coming on strong, and a later round stoppage is certainly in the cards. With the fight being five rounds, and the match-up being very close, Condit is a great value at his salary as he will rack up points with striking, and his chance at a later finish is very solid. He has the best value for his salary.
FIGHTER TO AVOID
Kevin Casey ($9,200)
Kevin Casey’s six-fight UFC career has been weird, to say the least. He holds just one win in that time, two losses, a no contest due to a drug test failure overturning his win, a no contest due to an eye poke in the first minute, and, most recently, the rare split draw. Casey finds his back against the wall when he steps inside the Octagon on Saturday night as he takes on Sam Alvey. Alvey is looking to score his second straight win after a quick submission win over Eric Spicely.
Alvey is fighting for the third time in as many months, and he looks to keep the momentum going. Alvey is a finisher as 20 of his 27 career wins have come by stoppage, with 17 coming by knockout. Casey will also be giving up some size to Alvey to go along with giving up the experience. Casey is a solid jiu-jitsu artist, with a black belt, but he has yet to show his grappling skills all that much inside the Octagon. He has preferred to stand and strike, and, well, that isn’t condusive to getting a win over Alvey. Alvey hits hard, and Casey doesn’t have a strong chin. He also leaves himself open to be countered on the feet with the hands, and since Alvey is more of a straight puncher than an overall striker, Casey won’t often find a leg to grab in a striking attack to take the fight to the mat.
Casey has his back against the wall, and this is going to be a tough fight for him to get the win. I’m expecting Alvey to finish Casey, and I’m willing to say that this is fight most likely to see a finish. Casey is the one fighter to avoid on this card.
UNDERDOG TARGET
Shane Campbell ($8,800)
Shane Campbell will be making his fifth trip inside the Octagon on Saturday night, and he finds himself in a must-win situation. Campbell is just 1-3 in his first four UFC bouts and has lost two straight. He is coming into this fight after being submitted by Erik Koch in May in a fight where Campbell was winning early on the feet before succumbing to the grappling ability of Koch. Campbell will be taking on an opponent making his UFC debut in Felipe Silva, who enters the UFC with a perfect 7-0 record.
Silva has finished his opponents in six of those seven wins, with all of those wins coming in the first round. Silva is dangerous in that first round, but outside of that, his conditioning comes into play big time. He also has fought lower-level competition and Campbell is a big step up in competition with his experience. Campbell is a better striker on the feet as he has lots of professional kickboxing experience, and he is a much cleaner striker. Silva also doesn’t have the grappling credentials that both Koch and James Krause had when they took on Campbell in his last two fights.
Campbell is a sneaky play for an upset, and he has a low salary at just $8,800. Only two fighters have a lower salary than him. Silva’s undefeated record may scare people, but he is unproven on the big stage, and Campbell is a hard-nosed veteran. Campbell is your top underdog target.
WHO MIGHT SURPRISE
Paige VanZant ($10,800)
A Paige VanZant win wouldn’t be a surprise as she is one of the biggest betting favorites on the card and has the second-highest salary of all 22 fighters on the card. Many are expecting her to score the win when she makes her Octagon return taking on Bec Rawlings in one of the top fights on the card. Rawlings is a tough opponent and has won two straight fights, but VanZant is the more talented strawweight.
Both women are aggressive fighters though VanZant is a much more pressure fighter. She has also fought tougher competition, though she came up on the losing end in her last fight. She has a tremendous amount of heart that is matched only by her gas tank. VanZant doesn’t get tired, and Rawlings does as she carries a lot of size for a 115-pound fighter. Rawlings has good top control on the ground, but VanZant is crafty on the mat and is good at finding submissions. VanZant is also better on the feet of the two, and at just 22-years-old, the sky is still the limit for her. Rawlings is a good bounce back fight for VanZant as she is a tough test, but one that VanZant should be able to pass if she is going to be a title contender in the future.
A sneaky result here would be VanZant finding a submission after using a solid amount of ground-and-pound. She has done that before, and she is a scrappy fighter. She has a good chance at getting a finish, which even though her salary suggests might happen, it’s far from a guarantee. I think she finishes Rawlings, and that makes her a surprise play for those thinking she’ll just win by going the distance.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Paige VanZant ($10,800), Anthony Pettis ($10,400), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Adam Hunter ($9,700), Jim Miller ($9,100)
I have Anthony Pettis as my top play above, and I’m going with him in my line-up. I truly feel he will finish Charles Oliveira and get himself back on track. Oliveira is a very talented fighter, but he has a lot of flaws and falters against stiff competition. Pettis is stiff competition. He is risky based on his past three fights, but I see him getting back into the win column. Paige VanZant is making her return and looking to make a statement that she is going to be a future title challenger, and I expect her to be aggressive and wear down Bec Rawlings and score a finish in the later stages of their fight.
Carlos Condit is in the main event and has an extra ten minutes to score points. I expect him and Demian Maia to go the distance, though Condit can score a late finish. I like him to win the main event, and to score a handful of extra points in the extra time. Adam Hunter is making his UFC debut opposite an opponent also making his UFC debut in Ryan Janes. Hunter is an aggressive fighter and a finisher, and a quick finish and win for him is what I’m confident will happen. The last fighter on my team is Jim Miller. He holds a win over Joe Lauzon already, and I think he has a style that will have the upper hand on Lauzon. I like him to win.
PAUL FONTAINE- Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000), Sam Alvey ($10,200), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Jeremy Kennedy ($9,800), Charles Oliveira ($9,000)
Di Chirico is a huge favorite despite losing his UFC debut in April. I believe that’s more due to the fact that his opponent Garreth McLellan is just not a very good fighter. I expect a quick finish for the Italian fighter here. Smilin’ Sam Alvey should knock out Kevin Casey in fairly short order. Casey has just never lived up to the potential he showed on The Ultimate Fighter and he could be gone from UFC after this one. I like Condit to keep the main event on the feet and pepper Maia with punches the entire fight. If he doesn’t finish him, he’ll land a ton of strikes in a five round fight and score points.
Jeremy Kennedy is unbeaten coming into his UFC debut and he’s facing a fellow Canadian fighting for the first time in the Octagon as well. Ricci has faced similar competition and lost 3 times so I like Kennedy here. My last pick is Charles Oliveira who I think will finally win a big fight. I think the cut to 145 is really going to hurt Anthony Pettis and I like Oliveira to win by submission as he has in most of his UFC fights.
PEACH MACHINE- Paige VanZant ($10,800), Joe Lauzon ($10,300), Carlos Condit ($10,000), Chad Laprise ($9,900), Charles Oliveira ($9,000)
Condit will whhhhip Maia if Maia is dumb enough to keep it standing. I believe he’s that dumb and that Condit is a superior fighter. Oliveira has a lot of potential and Tony Pettis hasn’t exactly looked good recently. Pettis jumped the shark when he lost the strap. Lauzon looked great pummeling Diego Sanchez, and I expect JoeLa to toss a beatin’ on Jimmy Miller. PVZ needs a win here and I’m hoping she’s got her act together since DWTS. I picked Laprise because his cost allowed me to get to exactly 50,000. This is week 2 of 9 consecutive. We didn’t do great last week, not in the money, but my picks did go 4-1. This should be at least another 4-1 outing.
A battle between perinnial welterweight contenders Demian Maia (23-6, 17-6 UFC) and Carlos Condit (30-9, 7-5 UFC) will headline in a five-round bout in the UFC’s return to Vancouver on August 27 for UFC On FOX 21. The UFC announced the news on Tuesday after an initial report by Canadian sportswriter Neil Davidson.
Maia and Condit were scheduled to meet at UFC 202 on August 20, but the bout was shifted to a week later as the Vancouver card was still searching for a main event.
Condit, a former Interim UFC Welterweight Champion, returns following a “Fight Of The Year” candidate bout against Robbie Lawler for the UFC Welterweight Championship at UFC 195 in January. Condit lost the fight by a razor-thin split decision, and talked about retirement following the bout. The retirement talk can wait as he looks to get another title shot.
Maia will enter the bout having won five straight fights and is coming off a dominating submission win over Matt Brown at UFC 198 in May. During his current streak, he also has scored wins over Gunnar Nelson, Neil Magny, Ryan LaFlare and Alexander Yakovlev. A sixth straight win over Condit could secure Maia his first title shot since moving down to 170 pounds.
In addition to the annoucement of the Maia vs. Condit main event, the UFC announced three additional bouts. Sam Alvey will fight for the third time in just over two months as he takes on Kevin Casey in a middleweight bout, Shane Campbell will welcome the debuting Felipe Silva in a lightweight bout, and a middleweight bout between newcomers Adam Hunter and Ryan Janes.
UFC On FOX 21 takes place on August 27 from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Tickets for the event go on sale this week, and the card is as follows:
