As the end of the year approaches, so does our pro wrestling year in review series with a stop in October and first-time guest Denise Salcedo of Instinct Culture and this very website.
For an hour, Denise and I go through all the big happenings from my favorite month of the year including:
Tony Khan “securing the bag” as he put it, officially signing a multi-year AEW TV renewal with WBD with a streaming/library component
WWE truly going old school with a bloody and violent Hell in a Cell match between CM Punk and Drew McIntyre at Bad Blood
The serious injury that befell TNA star Chris Bey that still remains a bit of a mystery
WWE NXT debuting on The CW
The best of the rest from WWE, AEW, TNA, Japan, Mexico, and the indies
I am back with a brand-new Sunday edition of Wrestling Observer Live, talking about all the latest news in wrestling.
I follow up on the ongoing story about the new TV rights deal between AEW and WBD, specifically developments from the Puck News report that the agreement is supposed to be around $170 million.
I also discuss Friday’s WWE SmackDown and the cinematic presentation of the confrontation between Roman Reigns and Cody Rhodes on the football field at Georgia Tech. Will this become commonplace
I also wonder where all the star power is when it comes to AEW Collision and preview Wednesday’s Grand Slam which I’ll be in attendance for.
The lead story delves into the impending AEW TV rights deal announcement with WBD and this week’s reporting by Puck’s John Ourand about the details.
We also look at last weekend’s Noche UFC spectacle at the Sphere in Las Vegas.
I also recap and review last weekend’s CMLL 91st Anniversary show which featured a four-way match where the loser lost their mask, plus Mistico vs. Chris Jericho in the main event.
While AEW head Tony Khan will not confirm that a new TV rights deal with WBD has been struck, he isn’t shying away from confirming that AEW has a future with the media empire.
Khan did an extended interview with Busted Open Radio to hype this Wednesday’s Grand Slam in Queens, New York, and was asked about the future and where things are at WBD. Recent reporting by Puck’s John Ourand has the two sides agreeing to a three-year deal with an option for a fourth in the range of $170 million annually that could be announced as early as next week.
“I know they have been reporting things that are very interesting. There are a lot of reports and rumors. I have not confirmed and Warner Brothers has not confirmed anything officially,” he said, adding he has not leaked any info to Puck. “I think we have a really exciting future there. I can say with 100% certainty, AEW and TBS and TNT are here to stay for a long time.”
The current deal between AEW and WBD reportedly expires at the end of the year. Ourand also mentioned that AEW is also pitching a package primarily to broadcast channels which have been rumored to be Fox — the former home of WWE SmackDown. Khan has yet to address those rumors.
AEW head Tony Khan spoke to the media for an hour Thursday ahead of Saturday’s All Out, giving updates about his impending TV rights renewal with likely partner WBD, injury updates on Powerhouse Hobbs and Mark Davis, and Sting’s status with the company.
He also shared what he considered an “insane stat.”
The full audio from the call can be heard below.
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On the TV rights end, Khan continued to heavily suggest that they will be renewing with WBD and are continuing to have “great conversations” with them. No timetable was given, but he said recent media reports about the deal are accurate without specifically saying which ones.
He again said the deal is in the red zone and will be a “huge touchdown” for AEW. It’s just waiting to be pushed in.
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Khan said he’s been learning a lot about AEW fans during the TV rights negotiations, including some information he didn’t even know about his company.
He then talked about how much wrestling fans have changed in terms of knowing the news and the business. He said it’s a golden age now and AEW is a huge part of the wrestling conversation now. Historically, the avidity has never been higher: a word he used several times during this portion of the call.
One stat he made a point to call “insane:” Of all the world’s sports leagues, the league whose fans spend the most per month on streaming video is AEW. He did not cite his source or other details on where that stat came from.
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Khan was asked if Sting remained under any kind of AEW contract given his recent appearance at All In. Khan didn’t answer directly, saying Sting was in the “AEW family” and was also recently backstage in Dallas, Texas, during their residency in Arlington.
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He also gave updates on two injured talents in Powerhouse Hobbs and Mark Davis. He confirmed Hobbs had been backstage recently to visit doctors, and that Davis had surgery on his arm. He didn’t provide any timeline for when either could be back, nor if Davis would be paired up with Aussie Open partner Mark Davis upon his return.
Other notes:
Asked about a potential women’s Casino gauntlet match perhaps at All Out, Khan said he thinks it would good to build one up and advertise it in the future. He wouldn’t commit to doing one this weekend.
Asked about their relationship with GCW and Josh Barnett, Khan said he likes and respects Barnett a lot but doesn’t really know the GCW team that well.
It’s another episode of We’re Live, Pal which is also available for free on YouTube below. Andrew Zarian and I are back for the first time in a month to talk about what’s going on in wrestling today.
We talked about the current AEW TV rights situation including when the deal could possibly be done with WBD as well as thoughts on how close to the actual finish line AEW might be.
Then we talked about what we love currently in pro wrestling which included:
In this week’s Wrestling Observer Newsletter, Dave Meltzer provided some further insight into the financial terms being discussed in the current AEW and WBD TV rights renewal negotiations — ones that would make the company profitable if they can get them.
Meltzer wrote that the per-year figures being discussed “are said to be considerably more than the estimated $110 million per year, or slightly more, that would in theory take the company into profitable range. There is talk of figures being between 50% above (and as much as nearly double) the current number said to be already on the table. The latter figure in particular would open up the potential of tens of millions more annually for talent acquisitions and other expansions in the budget.”
Both sides are still negotiating as of now.
In January 2020, AEW’s existing deal with WBD was extended for four years at $175 million total which included the addition of Rampage. WBD later picked up a one-year extension that will take the relationship through the end of this year. It’s assumed AEW got more money with the addition of Collision last June, but it’s unknown publicly by how much.
The new TV rights negotiations include streaming rights which are currently not available domestically. However, Meltzer stated that the talks are not serious when it comes to an outright purchase of pay-per-view distribution rights like WWE and Peacock with their PLEs or that UFC has with ESPN.
Puck’s Matt Belloni reported this past week that AEW head Tony Khan was disappointed with WBD’s initial offer — a statement that AEW denied on the same day. He also reported the exclusive negotiating window with WBD ends in July with Meltzer reporting that it’s “coming up in several weeks.”
After months of speculation, there is some new insight into the current AEW/Warner Bros. Discovery TV rights renewal talks: some of which that has AEW head Tony Khan reportedly not thrilled with the current offer.
As part of his weekly subscriber newsletter, Puck’s Matt Belloni (former of The Hollywood Reporter) reported that WBD head David Zaslav and TNT Sports head Luis Silberwasser want to retain AEW Dynamite, Collision and Rampage.
However, Belloni writes, “…the clock is ticking. I’m told the exclusive window closes in July, and AEW leader Tony Khan is said to be disappointed with the offer currently on the table. Khan also surely knows that Zaz losing the NBA would give AEW more leverage, even though the money to re-up AEW is a mere drop in the NBA bucket. If the window closes without a deal, others could swoop in for those rights, as Comcast has done with the NBA. (Extra awkward because WBD is said to own a stake in the league.)”
He went on to speculate that he’s unsure of how attractive AEW is to other platforms, given only non-WWE partners can be in on potential bidding. He also said AEW provides “reliable programming” and that if Zaslav loses both NBA and AEW TV rights, that could cause more damage in WBD’s deals with cable providers.
Khan has been quiet about anything to do with the rights renewal talks, only to say that the negotiating window is up soon while continuing to speak positively about both WBD and Zaslav in addition to the marketplace for AEW rights if it gets there.
The deal between AEW and WBD is believed to be up at the end of this year.
The exclusive domestic TV rights negotiating window between AEW & Warner Bros. Discovery will last into the summer as the process toward a potential new deal progresses.
Fightful first reported the news without giving a specific date, adding that any deal will likely involve a streaming element with WBD’s MAX service. A source independently confirmed that the window does end during the summer, but also could not provide the specific date or month.
While AEW head Tony Khan has never confirmed the news publicly, it’s assumed the existing rights deal is up at the end of 2024. He has previously spoken about his confidence level with a new deal regardless of where they end up, but that his hopes are to remain loyal to WBD.
When asked about the timeframe on the window during an April media call, Khan declined to answer but said it was soon.
WBD finds themselves in an interesting spot with their NBA TV negotiations as industry experts expect them to lose their portion of the rights to NBC given their massive bid for what’s considered a secondary package. Puck’s John Ourand reported there’s a question of whether WBD can match NBC’s bid, or even Amazon’s bid for another portion, given NBC has a broadcast component where WBD does not.
If the NBA goes elsewhere, needing to fill time with live programming would seem to bode well for AEW’s negotiations despite ratings that are down year-over-year for both Dynamite and Rampage. Collision is approaching its one-year anniversary this June. WBD does still have a portion of NHL and MLB games.
AEW programming has been on the WBD networks domestically since their 2019 inception with WBD-owned Bleacher Report as their lone domestic streaming provider for pay-per-views. That was until April of this year when other outlets like Triller, PPV.com and YouTube were also able to sell their PPVs, assumed to be due to multiple technical issues that occurred during March’s Revolution.
In a 180 from this month’s pre-Ring of Honor Final Battle call, AEW head Tony Khan was more loquacious in speaking to the media Thursday prior to Saturday’s Worlds End and was more than happy to talk about several topics that included the Continental Classic and their impending TV rights negotiations.
The full audio can be heard below.
He said he’s never felt more on top of things and more invigorated than he is right now with the booking and spoke of the Continental Classic as an “experiment” with both a control group (what they have been doing) and experimental group (increasing what he called the allocation of sports-based old school wrestling).
He is attributing the recent ratings increase for Collision to the more sports-based presentation despite going head-to-head with the NFL on Saturdays recently. He said he will move more toward that style of presentation based on fan feedback which he said was tangible.
He said the Classic has been the most fun thing he’s ever done and put together. However, he was non-committal about a women’s version.
TV rights
Asked about his current relationship with Warner Bros. Discovery, Khan said the relationship is “amazing” and that he’s excited to work with WBD through 2024 and after that, there will be some exciting conversations to be had. He again said he has lots of interest in ROH TV rights and is holding them as a card to be played during the AEW TV rights as he assumes there will be a lot of suitors. He said it would have to be a heck of an offer to get away from WBD.
Like WWE, he expects “a lot more” in revenue when it comes to the next round of AEW media rights based on where Dynamite started.
He defended the year-over-year declines in both Dynamite and Rampage ratings, bringing up how WWE Raw had experienced a similar decline in the fourth quarter as has cable, but no one brings up their downturn when talking about Raw TV rights. He said he thinks WWE would give a similar answer as to their performance vs. cable.
The Devil revealed?
Khan also heavily implied the identity of The Devil will be revealed at Saturday’s PPV, saying “there will be some big revelations and big moments at Worlds End.”
Other notable quotes:
Khan said he is excited for Hiroshi Tanahashi as NJPW president while giving props to outgoing president Takami Ohbari. He values his relationship with Tanahashi quite a bit and puts over his professionalism in every aspect.
Asked if he has replacements for VPs and other front office people who are departing, Khan said he has some big announcements regarding that, hinting those will come in the new year after contracts end.
Khan said Kenny Omega’s diverticulitis affected “a lot of things” when it came to the Worlds End card. He thought the best thing would be to rebuild the card and not just try to replace him which led to bringing in Sammy Guevara, Sting and Darby Allin.
He felt the time was right for Swerve Strickland vs. Keith Lee and has been wanting to build up both guys for this moment.
A new report out Wednesday has Warner Bros. Discovery & Paramount discussing a corporate merger between the two entertainment entities.
Axios reported that WBD CEO David Zaslav and Paramount Global CEO Bob Bakish met Tuesday to discuss the matter over several hours that included how the two could compliment each other.
As pointed out in the article, WBD’s market cap is currently $29 billion while Paramount sits at just over $10 billion. WBD has reportedly hired bankers to evaluate a merger.
WBD has a multitude of networks and their Max streaming service while Paramount owns their own movie studio, CBS, cable networks, and their own streaming service. They also are one of several NFL rights holders while they also hold NCAA men’s basketball tournament partnership rights with WBD.
Both companies are also carrying major debt loads and are losing in the “streaming wars” to Netflix, hence why consolidation is being considered.
The news is pertinent to wrestling fans for several reasons.
WBD executive Bruce Campbell met recently with TKO’s Mark Shapiro and WWE’s Nick Khan and Paul Levesque in what was believed to be a conversation about Raw’s domestic TV rights that are up next year. The meeting came after previous attempts at talks had reportedly not gone anywhere.
It also comes as WBD’s current TV wrestling partner AEW is approaching the final year of their multi-year contract for which the future is unknown. AEW head Tony Khan said last week that he met with WBD officials on December 12th, but he didn’t delve into what the focus of the conversation was.
Regarding WWE talking with WBD, Khan said at the post-Ring of Honor Final Battle press conference that “it’s part of the TV business” and that he feels AEW has performed “incredibly well” for WBD which has led to a strong relationship. He has previously said he believes in loyalty and would like to remain on WBD’s networks.
WBD is also one of several groups discussing NBA TV rights which they are expected to share with multiple other broadcast entities. How a merger could affect those commitments of cash to the NBA, WWE or AEW is unknown.
On the Paramount side, their CBS Media Ventures syndication arm does distribute Women’s of Wrestling in a multi-year deal that began in October 2021.
The WWE Raw rights renewals and the AEW rights renewals will end up being two of the most important pro wrestling news stories of the next year.
From the start, analysts have believed NBCU (USA), Disney (FX), Amazon Prime, and WBD were all potential suitors for the show that starts its 32nd year in a few weeks. WBD, due to its affiliation with AEW, was always considered a longshot and the word going around was that WBD was no longer in the game as of October.
The CM Punk signing looks to have opened doors up since Endeavor’s Mark Shapiro along with Nick Khan and Paul Levesque had a meeting with WBD on Monday morning.
One report we had was that Punk was a major part of the pitch, with the idea he’d be a regular on the Raw brand. The report we had included pushing his merchandise sales and social media views along with ratings of recent shows.
Obviously the situation is back wide open and this greatly affects AEW, which has also been in talks with WBD on a number of deals besides just television rights renewals, including potential streaming. WBD also gets a cut of AEW’s streaming PPV buys through Bleacher Report.
While never acknowledged, there is also the belief that WBD owns points in AEW. Tony Khan never denied it when asked, only saying he has 100 percent of the voting and decision making power.
The new WWE ownership is not Vince McMahon, so the attempt to get brand exclusivity is likely not there. UFC’s contract with ESPN was negotiated by Endeavor. PFL, a rival promotion, was also able to get on ESPN and ESPN+, and PFL just renewed that deal. It is believed the CW deal for NXT also didn’t call for exclusivity in the wrestling genre. Whether WBD would want two wrestling franchises is a different matter.
Tony Khan has always talked of loyalty to WBD, even saying that in negotiations for this new deal he would stay with WBD on his next deal even if another entity offered slightly more money. He also made it clear after the purchase of ROH that he would only shop it to WBD stations, who didn’t bite on it. It was reported by Nick Hausman and confirmed by Tony Khan that CW had expressed interest in ROH some time back. Khan had said in the past that he legally could sell ROH television rights outside the WBD family, but out of loyalty would not do so at the time.
It’s difficult to predict outcomes in these negotiations. SmackDown going to USA Network this coming October was very predictable and the clear favorite. NXT going to CW seemed to come out of the blue. Levesque missed the Raw two weeks earlier for a meeting with another potential suitor for the show, This would indicate those talks were very serious by that point.
More than a decade ago with UFC, everyone was sure it was going from Spike to the NBC family literally until it came out the deal was with Fox. It was just recently that Dana White explained how that happened and that they were ready to sign with NBC, but the nature of Vince McMahon’s WWE deal with USA, the station that would have aired the bulk of the programming, was such that MMA was considered close enough to pro wrestling that he had to give approval. He did not, and the NBC deal was dead.
So as far as where Raw ends up, until the announcement is made, nothing is a lock. There are so many other potential repercussions in regard to late 2024, including the channels WWE programming will be on and the days of the week the shows will be on. SmackDown on Friday would seem to make no sense considering how much USA paid for the show, given the viewers watching television on Friday are considerably lower than Sunday through Thursday. For AEW, it would not be in its best interest to be on the same night as Raw or SmackDown.
Raw moving from Monday is also intriguing talk. Its history on Monday is so long that it’s such a long standing tradition to fans that moving it is a risk. Yet it takes a hit every year for several months due to the NFL.
Obviously WBD talks regarding Raw, because of those repercussions is the most intriguing. At first it appeared to be so unlikely that it even being consistently mentioned by analysts was scoffed at.
WBD this year has both added a new show, leading to a rights increase and signed AEW to an exclusive contract. In recent weeks it has consistently okayed the live shows going long so main events don’t have to be rushed. While not doing Raw numbers, Dynamite usually ranks between No. 2 and No. 6 for the week in cable rankings in the entertainment category — a category that Raw is usually first place in.
The addition of CM Punk increases Raw’s ratings potential. Of course the early shows got a big boost and most likely the impact will be lessened in time. Some will point to Monday’s lower number and say it’s already back to normal, but the Punk segment with Seth Rollins did 1,881,000 viewers and an 0.62 in 18-49, far above the rest of the show. While Raw, like Dynamite, almost always loses viewers as the show goes on, the drop of 626,000 viewers and 0.22 from the Punk quarter until the last quarter was so far beyond usual levels that it was staggering. The show clearly would have done far worse against the competition without the storyline of him announcing his destination. Long-term, we really have to wait until after football season ends to ascertain how the overall momentum of the ratings.
WWE is looking for a huge increase in Raw rights on the new deal, the hoped for figure of 50 percent or more would be $398 million and even a 40 percent increase would be $371 million.
There is value in having the No. 1 franchise in the genre, but from a cost per 18-49 viewer level AEW Dynamite is a bargain in comparison.
If AEW does 55 percent of the Raw 18-49 ratings, and that’s likely within a few percentage points of where it currently is on a year-around basis, Dynamite was believed to have been roughly $50 million in rights fees for 2023, and the option year would bump it up. Raw is three hours vs. two, so as its price per hour would be in the $124 million to $133 million range, and the Dynamite price for this coming year is maybe in the $30 million range per hour. Even with an increase to, say $90 million ($45 million per hour) on the next deal, it would mean delivering 55 percent of the 18-49 viewers at 25 to 36 percent of the cost.
Another key figure is that based on a recent Werstlenomics study of household income of the viewers of the different wrestling shows from January through November, that the median income of a Dynamite viewing household is the highest of any wrestling show in the United States. The figure of $61,500 median household viewership is 13.3 percent higher than that of a Raw household, meaning the theoretical value of its viewers should be significantly higher.
Ultimately, a lot of balls are in play right now and with everything from the days the shows air to the value of having the top rated non-sports show in one’s portfolio. But this also comes at a cost that is high enough that Fox, a network station, gave up SmackDown at a lower price, because they felt they lost too much money on the deal. And this is with SmackDown being the highest rated wrestling show and winning most Friday nights.
