UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal Predictions

UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal is a high-level featherweight matchup built for tape nerds (like me); long-sample data, layered grappling, and subtle striking adjustments over 25 minutes. The rest of the main card follows that theme, with experienced grinders facing upcoming talents across multiple divisions.

Sterling vs Zalal: stylistic breakdown

Aljamain Sterling brings elite championship experience and a proven five-round engine, with years of fighting the very best at a high pace. His game is built around stance switches, long kicks, and level-change threats that force opponents to hesitate and back up toward the fence. Youssef Zalal, by contrast, is a movement-heavy operator: lateral footwork, high guard, and opportunistic back-takes and submissions when opponents overcommit on entries or kicks.

Sterling vs Zalal Prediction

Sterling’s profile is that of a round-winner: solid volume, strong accuracy, and low damage taken thanks to range management and clinch-based smothering. His chain wrestling, shooting to the fence, switching to trips, and then riding the back, is particularly effective in longer fights where opponents slow and give up scrambles. Zalal is more of a transition hunter: he may lose small portions of a round, then flip control off a failed shot, a caught kick, or a scramble, turning defence into attack with his back-takes and submission attempts.

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling by decision.

Over five rounds, Sterling’s advantages in championship reps, pace layering, and ability to control where the fight happens should allow him to bank more minutes, even if Zalal has flashes of success in the open and wins some striking sequences. The key swing factor is whether Sterling can repeatedly mat-return Zalal and keep his back against the fence without getting reversed in extended scrambles.

Other key main card predictions

The rest of UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal’s main card leans heavily into style clashes that hardcore fans love: pressure wrestlers vs mobile strikers, aging power vs rising pace, and long, disciplined jabbers vs crafty veterans.

Main card prediction snapshot

FightPickStylistic notes
Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef ZalalSterling (decision)Volume, cage control, and sustained grappling pressure vs movement and opportunistic submissions.
Norma Dumont vs Joselyne EdwardsDumont (decision)Tighter boxing fundamentals, better stance discipline, and more reliable fence work against a rangy but defensively open striker.
Rafa Garcia vs Alexander HernandezHernandez (KO or decision)Garcia’s forward-pressure wrestling vs Hernandez’s explosiveness and cleaner counters; if Hernandez maintains discipline, his speed edge shows over three rounds.
Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna MartinettiLuna Martinetti (finish)Veteran power puncher versus surging, high-pace finisher; Martinetti’s youth and aggression can overwhelm Grant once exchanges snowball.
Montel Jackson vs Raoni BarcelosJackson (decision)Significant reach and size advantage, strong jab and straight attacks; Barcelos remains dangerous but has shifted toward lower-output, longer fights in later career

UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal Prelims Start Times, Main Card Start Times, Card: US, UK, Australia and more

UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal is a bit of a matchmaking gem at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with a former champion trying to crash a surging contender’s party at 145. Here is everything you need to know about the UFC Fight Night this weekend:

UFC Fight Night Prelims and main card start times

The event goes down on Saturday, April 25, 2026 in Vegas, but the local start times translate very differently for US, UK and Australian fans. All fights stream on Paramount+ in participating regions, with additional availability via DAZN in select markets:

Global broadcast schedule

RegionPrelims startMain card startNotes
US (ET)5:00 p.m. ET8:00 p.m. ETParamount+ simulcast from Meta APEX. 
US (PT)2:00 p.m. PT5:00 p.m. PTAfternoon slot on the West Coast. 
UK (BST)10:00 p.m. BST1:00 a.m. BST (Sun)Listed as 10 p.m. prelims, 1 a.m. main in UK schedules. 
Europe (CEST)11:00 p.m. CEST2:00 a.m. CEST (Sun)Typical late‑night Euro Fight Night window. 
Australia (AEST)*7:00 a.m. AEST (Sun)10:00 a.m. AEST (Sun)Calculated from ET; ideal Sunday morning viewing. 

*Australian times derived by converting 5 p.m./8 p.m. ET to AEST – check local listings to confirm closer to fight day.

Sterling vs Zalal: tape and advanced stats

This main event is a pure stylistic chess match: Sterling’s aggressive chain wrestling and top pressure against Zalal’s slick scrambling and back‑taking game. Both are proven five‑round operators, with average fight times comfortably north of 11 minutes.

Tale of the tape

MetricAljamain SterlingYoussef Zalal
Record25‑5‑018‑5‑1 
Height5’7″5’10” 
Average fight time13:5411:32 
Sig. strikes landed per min4.453.03 
Sig. striking accuracy52%50% 
Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.211.78 
Defensive striking59%66% 
Takedowns per 15 min2.452.17 
Takedown accuracy30%31% 
Takedown defence44%59% 
Subs per 15 min0.61.4 

Sterling’s 4.45 SLpM at 52% accuracy (via UFCStats) backed by a strong top game means his win condition is volume into control, not one‑shot power. Zalal actually gives up the cage in a lot of his fights but posts elite defensive metrics, with 66% striking defence and 59% takedown defence while threatening 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes (via UFCStats).

Card

Main card

BoutWeight class
Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef ZalalFeatherweight 
Norma Dumont vs Joselyne EdwardsWomen’s bantamweight 
Rafa Garcia vs Alexander HernandezLightweight 
Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna MartinettiBantamweight 
Montel Jackson vs Raoni BarcelosBantamweight 
Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan SpannHeavyweight 

Preliminary card

BoutWeight class
Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConicoMiddleweight 
Jackson McVey vs Sedriques DumasMiddleweight 
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle MontagueWomen’s bantamweight 
Jafel Filho vs Cody DurdenFlyweight 
TBA vs TBALightweight 
TBA vs TBAWelterweight 
TBA vs TBAWomen’s strawweight 

UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan Predictions

UFC Fight Night 272 (UFC Vegas 115) lands on Saturday, April 4, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, and it’s a decent 13-fight card with genuinely compelling matchups from top to bottom. Here are expert predictions for every bout, with odds and analysis.

Full Card Predictions at a Glance

FightPickMethodConfidence
Moicano vs. DuncanMoicanoSubmission, R2Medium
Jandiroba vs. RicciJandirobaDecisionHigh
Yakhyaev vs. RibeiroYakhyaevTKO, R2High
Estevam vs. EwingEstevamSubmission, R1Medium
McMillen vs. ZecchiniMcMillenDecisionMedium
Delano vs. RuchałaDelanoTKOMedium
Costa vs. NicollCostaTKO, R1Very High
Vannata vs. FlowersVannataDecisionHigh
Pat vs. PetersenPetersenDecisionLow
Pereira vs. CowanPereiraSubmissionMedium
Bekoev vs. GoreBekoevTKOMedium
Barbosa vs. GattoGattoDecisionMedium
Kamaka III vs. HopeKamaka IIIDecisionMedium

Main Card Breakdowns

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan – Lightweight (5 Rounds)

Odds: Duncan -192 / Moicano +160

The market favors the Scot, and it’s understandable. Duncan is on a four-fight win streak and hasn’t tasted defeat in over two years, but Moicano’s last two losses came against Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, arguably the two best lightweights on the planet. His experience, submission ceiling, and counter-striking IQ are being significantly undervalued here.

Duncan’s 4.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats), among the highest in the division, is a glaring vulnerability against a tactician of Moicano’s caliber. Expect Moicano to time Duncan’s reckless forward pressure and drag this to the ground where his BJJ becomes a submission threat at every exchange.

Prediction: Renato Moicano by Submission

Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci – Women’s Strawweight

Odds: Jandiroba -108 / Ricci -108 (near pick’em)

This is essentially a coin flip at the odds level, but Jandiroba has a decisive edge: she is one of the most dangerous submission artists in women’s MMA at 22-4, holding a significant grappling advantage over Ricci’s more striking-dependent style. Both fighters land over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Jandiroba’s submission game gives her a path to a finish that Ricci simply does not possess in kind.

Prediction: Virna Jandiroba by Decision or Late Submission

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro – Light Heavyweight

Odds: Yakhyaev -165 / Ribeiro +130

Yakhyaev is a high-pressure wrestler from Dagestan with legitimate finishing ability, and Ribeiro, while a capable jiu-jitsu practitioner, has proven very hittable and stoppable in the UFC. Yakhyaev’s wrestling-heavy Dagestani game plan should dominate the clinch and cage work, and a TKO off ground-and-pound is a very realistic outcome here..

Prediction: Yakhyaev by TKO

Rafael Estevam vs. Ethyn Ewing – Bantamweight

Odds: Estevam -155 / Ewing +125

Estevam is a Brazilian submission specialist with serious finishing ability at 135 lbs. Ewing brings solid grappling credentials but Estevam’s jiu-jitsu is elite-tier for this level of competition. A first-round submission attempt is firmly in play from the opening bell.

Prediction: Estevam by Submission

Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini – Featherweight

Odds: McMillen -165 / Zecchini +135

McMillen is the more established UFC-level fighter, with better striking output and ring generalship than Zecchini has demonstrated. This feels like a fight McMillen controls on the feet across three rounds, where his volume and pace wear down a more one-dimensional opponent.

Prediction: McMillen by Unanimous Decision

UFC Fight Night Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan Fight Preview and Breakdown

When Renato “Money” Moicano steps into the cage against Chris “The Problem” Duncan at UFC Fight Night 272 on Saturday, April 4, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, two contrasting lightweight philosophies collide in what is shaping up as one of the most tactically interesting main events of the year.

Tale of the Tape

CategoryRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
Record20-7-115-2-0
UFC Record12-77-2
Age3632
Height5′ 11″5′ 10″
Reach72″71″
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
TeamAmerican Top TeamAmerican Top Team
NationalityBrazilianScottish
Fighting StyleBrazilian Jiu-JitsuMixed Martial Artist

Remarkably, both fighters train out of American Top Team, a quirk that makes this main event uniquely fascinating from a camp preparation standpoint, as coaches will have walked the room with both men.

Statistical Breakdown

StatRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min4.175.02
Striking Accuracy48%46%
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min3.574.82
Striking Defense59%51%
Takedowns/15 Min1.13.27
Takedown Accuracy60%42%
Takedown Defense62%50%
Submission Avg./15 Min0.50.7
Finish Rate55%73%
Avg. Fight Time9:287:38

Two numbers tell the story of this entire fight. Duncan’s 4.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats) is alarming for a main event fighter. This points to a reckless, forward-pressure style that favors aggression over defensive control. On the other side of the ledger, Moicano’s 59% striking defense (via UFCStats) built over a 28-fight career against top-level opposition, places him as precisely the type of calculated counter-striker who punishes that approach.

Fighter Profiles

Renato Moicano

Moicano’s career is one of modern MMA’s great reinvention stories. Originally a featherweight title-quality-level contender with exceptional jiu-jitsu, he rebuilt himself at 155 lbs into a calculating, multi-dimensional threat. The turning point was a string of four consecutive finishes, including a KO of Jalin Turner at UFC 300, a TKO of Benoit Saint Denis, and a decision win over Beneil Dariush, that earned him a last-minute title shot against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January 2025, where he was submitted by D’Arce choke in the first round. He followed that with a decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan, two of the top-three fighters on the planet at 155. His pedigree remains elite, and he is a BJJ black belt whose submission game is live from virtually any position on the mat.

Chris Duncan

Duncan, 32, from Alloa, Scotland, is the embodiment of forward-pressure, high-volume, finish-or-be-finished lightweight MMA. He rode a remarkable trajectory from modest beginnings to the UFC with a wrecking-ball style, racking up 11 finishes in 15 wins, including a signature guillotine choke over Bolaji Oki and a unanimous decision over Mateusz Rębecki. His four-fight UFC win streak earned him this first UFC main event. However, that 4.82 strikes absorbed per minute figure and his career KO loss on record are question marks that a fighter of Moicano’s IQ wouldn’t have missed.

Key Technical Matchup Areas

The Feet: Counter-Striking vs. Volume Pressure

Duncan is a pressure fighter who walks opponents down and throws with conviction, and his 5.02 significant strikes per minute output demands respect. But Moicano is not a fighter who gets rattled by forward movement. His 48% striking accuracy combined with a 59% defensive rate means he absorbs far less than Duncan tends to dish out, suggesting he will be picking shots behind a stiff jab and looking for the right moment to time the big counter.

The Grappling: Takedown Volume vs. Submission Ceiling

Duncan’s 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes is elite-level volume for a lightweight, but his 42% takedown accuracy is considerably below average, meaning he shoots often and misses often. Every failed shot against a BJJ practitioner of Moicano’s caliber, a man with 10 career submission wins, is a direct invitation to a finishing submission sequence.

Pace and Fight Duration

Duncan’s average fight time of 7:38 minutes vs. Moicano’s 9:28 tells an important story. Duncan is a fast finisher or a fader, with limited evidence right now whether he thrives in the championship rounds…and this is a five-round main event. If Moicano survives early pressure, and his experience against the division’s very best suggests he really can, the tide may shift significantly from round three onward.

How Each Fighter Wins

Path to VictoryMoicanoDuncan
Most Likely MethodSubmission (R2–R3)TKO via strikes (R1–R2)
Key WeaponBJJ from guard, D’Arce chokeForward pressure, volume striking
Must AvoidEarly sloppy exchangesClinch entries and failed shot attempts
Danger ZoneFirst two rounds vs. Duncan’s paceRounds 3–5 if fight goes long

Duncan’s window to win this fight is narrow but real. If he can land heavy early, force Moicano to brawl, and prevent grappling from becoming a factor, his finishing instinct probably takes over. Moicano’s path is longer but arguably more reliable. If Moicano can survive the storm, stay disciplined, then he can go for a submission in the later rounds.

Who will win?

This is a fight the oddsmakers have slightly wrong. Chris Duncan at -192 is overpriced for a man whose defensive metrics are among the worst in a UFC main event in recent memory. Moicano at +160 brings a pedigree, submission ceiling, and tactical intelligence that thoroughly justifies backing him at that number.

I’m expecting Moicano to weather the early pressure, time Duncan’s reckless forward movement, and end this fight via submission somewhere in the second or third round. That would be a fitting statement win that puts his name firmly back in the top-10 lightweight conversation.

UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan Prelims Start Times, Main Card Start Times, Card, Odds: US, UK, Australia and more

UFC Fight Night 272, also known as UFC Vegas 115, goes down on Saturday, April 4, 2026, live from the Meta Apex in Enterprise, Nevada. Renato “Money” Moicano puts his lightweight resurgence on the line against the streaking Scottish knockout artist Chris “The Problem” Duncan in what shapes up as a sharply contrasting stylistic clash at 155 lbs.

UFC Fight Night Start Times Global Breakdown

The prelims kick off at 5:00 PM ET, with the main card following three hours later at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Here is the full international breakdown:

RegionPrelimsMain Card
US Eastern (ET)5:00 PM Sat, Apr 48:00 PM Sat, Apr 4
US Central (CT)4:00 PM Sat, Apr 47:00 PM Sat, Apr 4
US Mountain (MT)3:00 PM Sat, Apr 46:00 PM Sat, Apr 4
US Pacific (PT)2:00 PM Sat, Apr 45:00 PM Sat, Apr 4
UK (BST)10:00 PM Sat, Apr 41:00 AM Sun, Apr 5
Australia – Sydney/Melbourne (AEST)7:00 AM Sun, Apr 510:00 AM Sun, Apr 5
Australia – Perth (AWST)5:00 AM Sun, Apr 58:00 AM Sun, Apr 5

UK fans can watch on TNT Sports, while US viewers stream on Paramount+.

Full Fight Card

Main Card (8:00 PM ET / 1:00 AM BST)

Weight ClassFighter Avs.Fighter B
Lightweight (Main Event)Renato Moicano (20-7-1)vs.Chris Duncan (15-2-0)
Women’s StrawweightVirna Jandirobavs.Tabatha Ricci
Light HeavyweightAbdul-Rakhman Yakhyaevvs.Brendson Ribeiro
BantamweightEthyn Ewingvs.Rafael Estevam
FeatherweightTommy McMillenvs.Manolo Zecchini
FeatherweightJosé Mauro Delanovs.Robert Ruchała

Preliminary Card (5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST)

Weight ClassFighter Avs.Fighter B
HeavyweightGuilherme Patvs.Thomas Petersen
FlyweightAlessandro Costavs.Stewart Nicoll
LightweightLando Vannatavs.Darrius Flowers
Women’s BantamweightAlice Pereiravs.Hailey Cowan
MiddleweightAzamat Bekoevvs.Tresean Gore
Women’s FlyweightDione Barbosavs.Melissa Gatto
LightweightKai Kamaka IIIvs.Dakota Hope

Main Event Deep Dive: Moicano vs. Duncan

Fighter Stats Comparison

StatRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
Record20-7-115-2-0
Nickname“Money”“The Problem”
Height5’11”6’0″
Reach72″71″
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Finish Rate~60%High (KO/sub finisher)
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min~4.24.20
Key Win MethodSubmission (10 wins by sub)Guillotine choke specialist
TeamAmerican Top TeamAmerican Top Team

Moicano, 36, is a former featherweight title challenger who has reinvented himself as one of the most dangerous submission artists in the lightweight division. His resume includes wins over Benoît Saint Denis (TKO), Jalin Turner (KO, UFC 300), and Beneil Dariush, though he comes off a submission loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January 2025 and a decision defeat to Arman Tsarukyan. Duncan, a 32-year-old Scottish fighter out of Alloa, carries a 15-2 record and is riding serious momentum after a unanimous decision win over Mateusz Rębecki in August 2025.

Odds

Oddsmakers are leaning toward Duncan entering as the favorite in what is a surprising line given Moicano’s pedigree.

FighterMoneyline (DraftKings)Implied Win Probability
Chris Duncan-19263.1%
Renato Moicano+16036.9%
Method MarketBest OddsImplied Probability
Duncan by KO/TKO+11546.5%
Duncan by Decision+450~18%
Moicano by Submission+30025%
Moicano by KO/TKO+850~10.5%

UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer Odds

UFC Fight Night 271 takes place at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on March 28, 2026, and the full card is stacked from top to bottom with compelling matchups. Here is a complete breakdown of the win probability odds for every fight on the card on fight week.

UFC Seattle Full Fight Card Odds

Main Card

FightFighter AOddsFighter BOddsDivision
Main EventJoe Pyfer (15-3)+115Israel Adesanya (24-5)-140Middleweight
Co-MainMaycee Barber (15-2)-160Alexa Grasso (16-5-1)+125Women’s Flyweight
Main CardMichael Chiesa (19-7)-500Niko Price (16-10)+375Welterweight
Main CardLerryan Douglas (13-5)-300Julian Erosa (31-13)+240Featherweight
Main CardMansur Abdul-Malik (9-0-1)-160Yousri Belgaroui (9-3)+125Middleweight

Prelims Card

FightFighter AOddsFighter BOddsDivision
PrelimsNavajo Stirling (8-0)-425Bruno Lopes (14-2)+355Light Heavyweight
PrelimsChase Hooper (16-4-1)-280Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2)+210Lightweight
PrelimsTyrell Fortune (17-3)-120Marcin Tybura (27-10)-105Heavyweight
PrelimsCasey O’Neill (10-2)-130Gabriella Fernandes (11-3)+110Women’s Flyweight
PrelimsTerrance McKinney (17-8)-140Kyle Nelson (17-6-1)+120Lightweight
PrelimsIgnacio Bahamondes (17-6)-295Tofiq Musayev (22-6)+220Lightweight
PrelimsRicky Simon (22-7)TBDAdrian Yanez (17-6)TBDBantamweight
PrelimsAlexia Thainara (13-1)TBDBruna Brasil (11-6-1)TBDWomen’s Strawweight

Main Event – Adesanya vs. Pyfer

The market has Adesanya as a -140 favorite, implying roughly a 58% win probability. His 12cm reach advantage (2.03m vs. 1.91m), elite footwork, and experience across five-round championship bouts give him a structural edge. Pyfer at +115 is considered a live underdog thanks to his 87% career finish rate and the fact he has won three consecutive UFC fights, while Adesanya arrives on a three-fight losing streak and a 13-month layoff.

Co-Main – Grasso vs. Barber

Maycee Barber is listed as a -160 favorite over former champion Alexa Grasso at +125, a dramatic role reversal from their first meeting where Grasso dominated. Barber is riding a seven-fight win streak while Grasso comes in on a three-fight winless skid, so the odds reflect current form over historical pedigree entirely. Grasso’s crisp boxing averages 4.11 significant strikes per minute (via UFCStats), but Barber’s output of 4.61 strikes per minute combined with her 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes (also via UFCStats) represents a genuine stylistic threat.

Biggest Favorites on the Card

The most lopsided odds belong to Michael Chiesa (-500) and Navajo Stirling (-425). Chiesa, fighting in his retirement bout on home soil in Washington state, holds a 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes rate and faces a Niko Price who has lost five of his last six bouts. Stirling at 8-0 is undefeated and faces Bruno Lopes as the heavy favorite in their light heavyweight contest.

Most Competitive Fights

The tightest lines outside the main event belong to the Fortune vs. Tybura heavyweight bout (-120 vs. -105), which is almost a pick’em, and the O’Neill vs. Fernandes women’s flyweight contest (-130 vs. +110). Fortune vs. Tybura is noteworthy for being the only fight where both fighters are priced within a single touchdown of each other, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how their contrasting styles, Fortune’s wrestling vs. Tybura’s veteran striking, will mesh.

Notable Underlogs to Watch

Three fighters stand out as potentially undervalued based on raw stats and recent form:

  • Alexa Grasso (+125): Former flyweight champion with elite boxing fundamentals, being discounted purely due to a rough recent run
  • Julian Erosa (+240): Veteran finisher with 31 career wins; Douglas is a heavy favorite but Erosa’s experience and finishing ability make him dangerous
  • Tofiq Musayev (+220): Accomplished 22-6 lightweight stepping in against Bahamondes, an intriguing line for a fighter with legitimate credentials

UFC Fight Night Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer Fight Preview and Breakdown

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya puts his entire legacy on the line against the most dangerous finisher in the middleweight division right now, Joe Pyfer. This is not just a routine UFC Fight Night main event because it will define where both men go next. Here is the full technical breakdown.

Adesanya vs Pyfer Physical and Statistical Profile

The physical matchup is fascinating. Adesanya carries a significant 6-inch reach advantage (80″ vs. 74″) and stands 2 inches taller at 6’4″. The reach advantage here is really important, because it has allowed Izzy to dominate the likes of Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa, and Anderson Silva at range. Pyfer, however, fights out of a boxing-heavy stance and is built to close distance fast and unload in combination.

Fighter Stats Head-to-Head

StatIsrael AdesanyaJoe Pyfer
Record24-5-015-3-0
UFC Record19-56-1
Reach80″74″
Height6’4″6’2″
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min4.023.47
Striking Accuracy48%43%
Strikes Absorbed/Min3.203.05
Strike Defense55%53%
Takedown Defense76%50%
Sub. Avg./15 min0.11.0
Finish Rate (career)52%87%
1st Round Finishes37

Adesanya’s Game Plan

Adesanya’s entire blueprint is built around distance management and counter-striking. He uses his reach and footwork to stay just outside opponent striking range, punishes forward pressure with precise counters, and neutralizes grapplers with elite takedown defense (76%). His best performances, so think of the Whittaker KO, the Costa destruction, the Alex Pereira rematch…these all came when he dictated pace and prevented opponents from establishing rhythm.

The critical concern here is cage rust. Adesanya has not fought since his TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov in February 2025, which is a 13-month layoff. In that fight, he absorbed 3 knockdowns and showed alarming defensive vulnerability against pressure fighters. Against a finisher as explosive as Pyfer, any hesitation in the pocket could be absolutely fatal.​

Pyfer’s Path to Victory

Pyfer’s profile is deceptively simple, he hits extraordinarily hard and closes ground fast. His 7 first-round finishes in 15 wins reveal a fighter who converts early pressure into stoppages at a very elite rate. His UFC run has been built on performances of the night: he TKO’d Gerald Meerschaert in R1 at UFC 287, submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan at UFC Fight Night in 2023, and most recently outpointed the durable Kelvin Gastelum across three rounds, so he has shown he can win when a fight goes long, but 5 over rounds? That’s a new test.

His key vulnerability is takedown defense (50%) and late-round stamina. His only UFC loss, a decision to Jack Hermansson, exposed both of these, as Hermansson consistently disrupted his rhythm with wrestling and tempo changes over five rounds.

UFC Career Finishes Breakdown

FighterKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionFinish Rate
Israel Adesanya1111250%
Joe Pyfer93380%

The X-Factor: Round 1

This fight almost certainly is decided in Round 1. If Pyfer lands a clean combination inside the first five minutes and hurts Adesanya, the follow-up will be relentless. 7 of Pyfer’s 15 wins have ended in the opening frame of the fight. But if Adesanya survives the early storm and can establish his jab and rear teep, he will have the tools to neutralize Pyfer across four more rounds with his superior reach, timing, and octagon IQ.

The analytical edge goes to Adesanya, but only just. His reach and five-round experience are the deciding factors in what projects to be the most compelling Fight Night main event of 2026 to this point. But what you have to also factor in is how badly Izzy NEEDS to win this. If he loses? His career at the highest level is arguably done.

UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer Predictions

UFC Fight Night 271 is one of the most emotionally charged Fight Night cards in years. With Israel Adesanya fighting for his legacy and Joe Pyfer hunting his biggest scalp in the octagon yet, every pick on this card carries some real weight. Here are my predictions for the full card at Climate Pledge Arena on March 28, 2026.

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer Prediction (Middleweight)

This is the fight that defines the entire card, and the oddsmarket reflects just how evenly matched analysts believe it is. Most major US sportsbooks opened with Pyfer as a -120 to -130 favorite, while some Bet365 are pricing both fighters at 1.90/1.90, which is essentially a coin flip.

The case for Adesanya is built on five rounds, not five minutes. His last five UFC fights have averaged 3.6 rounds, and every piece of historical evidence suggests he is designed for championship distance. His 80-inch reach gives him a 5-inch advantage over Pyfer, and his counter-striking remains elite when he controls distance. Critically, the only time Pyfer has gone five rounds, a decision loss to Jack Hermansson, he showed late-round fatigue that exposed a gas tank that has never been stress-tested at this level.

The case for Pyfer is brutal and simple: 5 of his 6 UFC wins have come by stoppage, and Adesanya has been finished twice in his last three fights. A 13-month layoff since his last bout (February 2025) raises genuine rust concerns.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya by Unanimous Decision – Reach, experience, and championship rounds win this fight if Izzy survives the early pressure.

Main Event Odds Breakdown

FighterDraftKingsBet365Implied Win%
Israel Adesanya+1051.90~49%
Joe Pyfer-1301.90~51%

Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women’s Flyweight)

Barber enters as a -175 favorite, riding a 7-fight win streak since losing to Grasso. She lands 4.61 significant strikes per minute and has improved every aspect of her game. Grasso (+145) is the elite grappler, but Barber’s evolution makes her the sharper pick here.

Prediction: Maycee Barber by Unanimous Decision

Key Card Predictions at a Glance

FightOur PickMethodConfidence
Adesanya vs. PyferAdesanyaDecisionMedium
Grasso vs. BarberBarberDecisionMedium-High
Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle NelsonMcKinneyTKO R1High
Ricky Simón vs. Adrian YañezYañezDecisionMedium
Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell FortuneFortuneKO/TKOMedium
Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella FernandesO’NeillTKOHigh
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq MusayevBahamondesDecisionMedium
Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan DouglasErosaSubMedium

Fight to Watch: McKinney vs. Nelson

If you tune in for one prelim fight, make it Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson. McKinney has 9 first-round finishes in his UFC career and has never once been in a boring fight. Nelson is durable but swings wildly, a combination that is a recipe for a highlight-reel finish inside 90 seconds.

UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer Start Time: Prelims and Main Card US, UK, Australia and more

UFC Fight Night 271 Adesanya vs. Pyfer goes down on Saturday, March 28, 2026, live from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. Whether you’re watching from New York, London, or Sydney, here is every start time, broadcast detail, and key fight you need to know.

Global Start Times at a Glance

The prelims get underway at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT, with the main card following at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT on Paramount+. For international fans, the event runs deep into Sunday morning across most of Europe and into Sunday afternoon in Australia.

RegionCityPrelimsMain Card
Eastern TimeNew York5:00 PM ET Sat8:00 PM ET Sat
Central TimeChicago4:00 PM CT Sat7:00 PM CT Sat
Pacific TimeLos Angeles2:00 PM PT Sat5:00 PM PT Sat
British Summer TimeLondon10:00 PM BST Sat1:00 AM BST Sun
AESTSydney7:00 AM AEST Sun10:00 AM AEST Sun
AWSTPerth5:00 AM AWST Sun8:00 AM AWST Sun
Central EuropeanBerlin11:00 PM CEST Sat2:00 AM CEST Sun
Gulf StandardDubai1:00 AM GST Sun4:00 AM GST Sun

How to Watch

The entire card streams live on Paramount+ in the United States. UK fans can watch the prelims on UFC Fight Pass, while the main card airs live on TNT Sports and is also accessible via Discovery+, Amazon Prime Video, EE TV, Virgin Media, and Sky Sports. Australian fans can tune in via Kayo Sports or the UFC Fight Pass platform.

Why This Card Is Worth Staying Up For

This is arguably the most emotionally loaded UFC card of 2026 so far. Israel Adesanya (24-5) enters on a three-fight losing streak that includes back-to-back title fight losses and a TKO at the hands of Nassourdine Imavov. At 36 years old, this is widely seen as a career-defining must-win. His opponent, Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer (15-3), is 6-1 in the UFC with 13 of his 15 wins coming by stoppage, a 87% finish rate that makes him a genuine threat in every second of every round.

Main Event Stakes

FighterRecordUFC RunLast ResultFinish Rate
Israel Adesanya24-519-5TKO loss (Imavov)52%
Joe Pyfer15-36-1Win (Decision, Gastelum)87%

The co-main event is a highly anticipated women’s flyweight rematch between Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) and Maycee Barber (15-2), a fight that could set up the next title shot at 125 lbs. Add in finisher-friendly lightweight and heavyweight bouts across the prelims, including Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson, an almost guaranteed first-round chaos matchup, and this is a card that rewards fans who tune in early.

Prelim Card Breakdown

FightDivisionWhy It Matters
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq MusayevLightweightElite grappling vs. elite striking
Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr.LightweightSubmission specialist in showcase spot
Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell FortuneHeavyweightHW power matchup, likely to end early
Ricky Simón vs. Adrian YañezBantamweightTop-15 clash, potential FOTN candidate
Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella FernandesWomen’s FlyweightO’Neill gunning for top-5 ranking
Navajo Stirling vs. Bruno LopesLight HeavyweightRising prospects, high finish potential

UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer Card

UFC Fight Night 271 lands at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on Saturday, March 28, 2026, and the main card kicks off at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+. This is one of the most compelling Fight Night cards in recent memory, with a veteran legend desperate to prove he belongs at the top, versus a freight train finisher who has been demolishing middleweights on his way up the rankings. Here is the complete breakdown of the card:​

The Main Event: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (24-5) is in unfamiliar territory. The former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion is riding a three-fight losing skid, with defeats to Sean Strickland, Dricus Du Plessis, and Nassourdine Imavov, making this the longest winless stretch of his professional career. His last win was a stunning KO of Alex Pereira at UFC 281 back in 2023. Now 36, Izzy needs a definitive statement performance to remain in any sort of title contention.

Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer (15-3) is the exact wrong type of opponent for a fighter who needs to rebuild confidence. The Pennsylvania-based knockout machine is on a three-fight win streak, and his finishing rate is terrifying: 9 TKOs and 4 submissions in his 15 wins for a combined 87% finish rate. He is ranked #14 at middleweight, but a win over a #4-ranked Adesanya would catapult him into title conversation overnight.

Fighter Stats Comparison

StatIsrael AdesanyaJoe Pyfer
Record24-5-015-3-0
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min4.023.47
Striking Accuracy48%43%
Strikes Absorbed/Min3.203.05
Strike Defense55%53%
Takedown Defense76%50%
Submission Avg0.11.0

Source: UFC Stats

Adesanya’s elite striking defense (55%) and pinpoint accuracy give him the technical edge on the feet, but Pyfer’s sheer power and 87% finish rate make every exchange dangerous. The key variable: can Izzy stay disciplined at range and avoid the big shots that have hurt him in recent outings?

Co-Main and Key Bouts

The co-main event is a Women’s Flyweight clash between former champion Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) and rising contender Maycee Barber (15-2), a must-watch matchup for the 125 lb. division. The main card also features Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price at welterweight, a bout expected to serve as Chiesa’s retirement fight.

Full Fight Card

BoutDivisionCard
Israel Adesanya vs. Joe PyferMiddleweightMain Event
Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee BarberWomen’s FlyweightMain Card
Michael Chiesa vs. Niko PriceWelterweightMain Card
Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan DouglasFeatherweightMain Card
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri BelgarouiMiddleweightMain Card
Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle NelsonLightweightMain Card
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq MusayevLightweightPrelims
Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr.LightweightPrelims
Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell FortuneHeavyweightPrelims
Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella FernandesWomen’s FlyweightPrelims
Navajo Stirling vs. Bruno LopesLight HeavyweightPrelims
Ricky Simón vs. Adrian YañezBantamweightPrelims
Alexia Thainara vs. Bruna BrasilWomen’s StrawweightPrelims
Zhu Kangjie vs. Márcio BarbosaFeatherweightPrelims

UFC London 2026 Evloev vs Murphy Predictions: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night returns to The O2 Arena in London on March 21, 2026, for what is unquestionably the most statistically compelling featherweight bout in recent memory. Movsar Evloev (19–0) and Lerone Murphy (17–0–1) bring a combined record of 36–0–1 to the cage, the largest undefeated total for any matchup in UFC history, with the winner almost certainly earning a shot at Alexander Volkanovski’s featherweight championship.

Main Event Breakdown: Evloev vs Murphy

This is a classic wrestling-vs-striking title eliminator. Evloev is a mauling grappling machine: he has recorded 42 UFC takedowns, attempts 6.24 per five minutes, and controls opponents with an 81% clinch/ground control rate. He is unbeaten in nine UFC outings, with notable decision wins over former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling, Diego Lopes (twice a title challenger), and Arnold Allen. His one documented weakness? Every single UFC win has come by decision, with zero finishes in nine fights.

Murphy is the sharper striker by a significant margin. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy with a devastating +1.97 striking differential, and has racked up six UFC stoppages including a viral spinning back elbow KO of Aaron Pico. The glaring vulnerability is that his takedown defense sits at just 51%, and opponents like Josh Emmett (4 takedowns), Dan Ige, and Aaron Pico have all managed to ground him.

Fighter Stat Comparison

StatMovsar EvloevLerone Murphy
Record19–0–017–0–1
UFC Record9–0–09–0–1
Sig. Strikes/Min~3.84.48
Striking Accuracy~44%53%
Takedown Avg/5min6.24~1.0
Takedown Defense~72%51%
KO/TKO Wins36
Win by Decision167
Model Win Probability62.96%37.04%

Prediction: Evloev wins by unanimous decision. Murphy’s ground defense is a structural problem over 25 minutes at this level.

Full Card Predictions

Main Card

BoutPredictionMethod
Evloev vs Murphy (FW)EvloevUD
Luke Riley (12–0) vs Michael Aswell (11–3) (FW)RileyUD
Michael ‘Venom’ Page (24–3) vs Sam Patterson (14–2–1) (WW)PattersonUD
Iwo Baraniewski (7–0) vs Austen Lane (13–7)BaraniewskiTKO
Roman Dolidze (15–4) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (13–2)DuncanUD
Kurtis Campbell (8–0) vs Danny Silva (10–2)CampbellUD

Prelims

BoutPredictionMethod
Mason Jones (17–2) vs Axel Sola (11–0–1) (LW)JonesUD
Nathaniel Wood (22–6) vs Losene Keita (16–1) (FW)KeitaUD
Louie Sutherland (10–4) vs Brandon Pericic (5–1) (HW)SutherlandTKO
Mantas Kondratavicius (8–1) vs Antonio Trocoli (12–6)KondrataviciusSub
Mario Pinto (11–0) vs Fellipe Franco (10–1) (HW)PintoTKO
Shaqueme Rock (12–2–1) vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15–4)Al-SelwadyTKO

Key Fight to Watch: Duncan vs Dolidze

Don’t sleep on this co-main card bout. Christian Leroy Duncan posts a +1.63 striking differential with 4.60 significant strikes per minute, while Dolidze carries a –0.31 striking differential.​

Michael ‘Venom’ Page, meanwhile, faces a brutal matchup in the welterweight division. Patterson’s 80% xR% (expected round-winning percentage) dwarfs MVP’s 41%, and with MVP’s chin coming under increased scrutiny in recent outings, the Englishman may find London a hostile arena despite fighting on home soil.

UFC Fight Night Predictions Emmett vs Vallejos

UFC Fight Night Emmett vs. Vallejos is a deceptively strong Apex card built around a classic veteran-versus-surging-prospect main event, and the current odds reflects that dynamic clearly. My top predictions/picks right now are Kevin Vallejos over Josh Emmett, Gillian Robertson over Amanda Lemos, and Oumar Sy over Ion Cutelaba, with several prelim fights likely to hinge on pace, takedown control, and late-fight durability rather than pure one-shot power.

Kevin Vallejos vs Josh Emmett Prediction UFC Fight Night

Josh Emmett enters at 19-6 with years of elite featherweight experience, while Kevin Vallejos brings a 17-1 record and a 3-0 UFC run into the biggest fight of his career. Vallejos holds the edge in significant strikes landed per minute at 5.78 (via UFCStats) to Emmett’s 3.72 (via UFCStats), plus a striking accuracy advantage of 48.24 percent to 35 percent, which helps explain why oddsmakers have put him as a heavy favorite.

Emmett’s path is still obvious as needs to land clean, force respect early and turn the fight into a power contest instead of a layered pace fight. Vallejos looks like the sharper pick for me because his volume and cleaner minute-winning offense make him the more reliable choice over five rounds, so my prediction is Vallejos by decision or late stoppage.

Prediction: Vallejos to win via decision or late stoppage.

Best UFC Fight Night main-card picks

The co-main between Amanda Lemos and Gillian Robertson is a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, and Robertson’s current line near -185 to -190 suggests the market expects her control game to be the deciding factor. In a smaller cage, that pressure really matters more, so Robertson is my pick if she can consistently chain takedowns and bank top time.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy is one of the most important style fights on the card because Cutelaba’s volatility is always live early, but Sy’s favorite status shows confidence in his structure and composure over time. I lean Sy by surviving the first wave and extending the fight into a more technical second-half battle.

Full-card predictions

FightPredictionAnalyst lean
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin VallejosKevin Vallejos Higher output, cleaner numbers 
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian RobertsonGillian Robertson Grappling control edge 
Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar SyOumar Sy Better long-fight stability 
Andre Fili vs. Jose DelgadoJose Delgado Favored prospect upside 
Marwan Rahiki vs. Harry HardwickHarry Hardwick More proven finishing threat on available previews 
Vitor Petrino vs. Steven AsplundVitor Petrino Physical upside at heavyweight 
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno SilvaCharles Johnson Better minute-winning pace 
Brad Tavares vs. Eryk AndersBrad Tavares Safer veteran process 
Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek OrolbaiMyktybek Orolbai Strong favorite pricing 
Bolaji Oki vs. Manoel SousaManoel Sousa Market expects cleaner finishing upside 
Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher SosaHecher Sosa Clear odds edge 
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Montserrat RendonMontserrat Rendon Slight edge on proven UFC experience in available previews 
Elijah Smith vs. Su Young YouElijah Smith Favored in early books 
Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam HughesSam Hughes Better pressure and late-fight grit 

Fights to watch

The sharpest tape-study fight on the card is Emmett vs Vallejos because it tests whether veteran power can still disrupt a younger fighter who is outlanding opponents at a far better clip. Curtis vs. Orolbai and Cutelaba vs. Sy are close behind because both matchups feature major momentum swings depending on who controls pace and positioning first. This should actually be a decent Fight Night card!

UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Vallejos Prelims Start Times, Main Card Start Times, Card, Odds: US, UK, Australia and more

The next UFC Fight Night (Emmett vs Vallejos) takes place on Saturday, March 14, 2026, at the UFC/Meta Apex in Las Vegas, with the prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET and the main card beginning at 8 p.m. ET. For fans in the UK, that converts to 9 p.m. GMT for the prelims and midnight GMT for the main card, while in Australia the card begins at 8 a.m. AEDT and 11 a.m. AEDT on Sunday, March 15.

Next UFC Fight Night Start times

For viewers planning the full night, the US schedule is straightforward: prelims at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT and the main card at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. The UK gets a later watch window with prelims at 9 p.m. GMT and the main card at 12 a.m. GMT, while Australian fans can expect an early Sunday start at 8 a.m. AEDT for prelims and 11 a.m. AEDT for the main card.

RegionPrelimsMain card
US ET5 p.m. 8 p.m. 
US PT2 p.m. 5 p.m. 
UK9 p.m. GMT 12 a.m. GMT 
Australia8 a.m. AEDT, Sunday 11 a.m. AEDT, Sunday 

UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Vallejos Card

The headline matchup sees Josh Emmett against Kevin Vallejos in a featherweight main event, with Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson serving as the co-main event at strawweight. Other notable fights attached to the event include Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy, Andre Fili vs. Jose Delgado, and Marwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick.​

The card also includes Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki, Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders, Bia Mesquita vs. Montserrat Rendon, Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund, and Elijah Smith vs. Su Young You. That gives the event a strong mix of veteran names, prospects, and stylistic variety, especially across the featherweight and light heavyweight bouts.​

CardWeight classFight
Main cardFeatherweightJosh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos 
Main cardWomen’s StrawweightAmanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson 
Main cardLight HeavyweightIon Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy 
Main cardFeatherweightAndre Fili vs. Jose Delgado 
Main cardFeatherweightMarwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick 
Main cardHeavyweightVitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund 
PrelimsFlyweightCharles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva 
PrelimsMiddleweightBrad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders 
PrelimsWelterweightChris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai ​​
PrelimsLightweightBolaji Oki vs. Manoel Sousa 
PrelimsBantamweightLuan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa ​​
PrelimsWomen’s BantamweightBeatriz Mesquita vs. Montserrat Rendon ​​
PrelimsBantamweightElijah Smith vs. Su Young You 
PrelimsWomen’s StrawweightPiera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes ​​

Odds and read

Vallejos enters as a clear betting favorite over Emmett, with Emmett around +375 and Vallejos between -500 and -525 depending on the listing snapshot. In the co-main event, Lemos is listed around +160 to +163, while Robertson sits between -185 and -190.

FightOdds snapshot
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin VallejosEmmett +375 / Vallejos -500 to -525 
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian RobertsonLemos +160 to +163 / Robertson -185 to -190 

Emmett vs. Vallejos is compelling because it matches a longtime UFC contender against a younger featherweight with a 17-1 record trying to reach that next level. Emmett enters as the older, heavier-handed fighter, while Vallejos brings the kind of ascent that oddsmakers often respect when a prospect appears ready for a major jump.

Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Fight Preview and Breakdown UFC Mexico 2026

Brandon Moreno headlines UFC Fight Night in Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, 2026, taking on England’s Lone’er Kavanagh in a flyweight main event at Arena CDMX. This fight reads like a classic “established elite vs rising pressure fighter” clash, with pace, scrambles and decision making likely deciding the result.

Stylistic differences in striking pace and shot selection

Moreno’s best work is built on layered pressure: he closes distance behind volume, mixes stance looks, and forces long exchanges where his timing and durability usually show up. His octagon career numbers reflect a steady, efficient output (3.89 significant strikes landed per minute, 44% accuracy) with solid striking defense (60%) while absorbing 3.62 per minute (via UFCStats).

Kavanagh’s profile is more aggressive at a similar efficiency, landing 4.29 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy (via UFCStats). The key question is whether he can keep that tempo when Moreno pushes him into repeated second and third phase exchanges, where Moreno is very comfortable in taking small wins and bankable minutes.

Tale of the tape

CategoryBrandon MorenoLone’er Kavanagh
Record23-9-29-1-0
Height1.70 m1.68 m
Reach70 in67 in
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Age (Feb 2026)3226

Stylistic differences in grappling and scramble chains

This is where Moreno can tilt the fight, because he is not just a takedown threat, he is a transition threat. Moreno averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him a reliable way to change the picture if striking exchanges get messy.

Kavanagh’s clearest defensive selling point so far is his takedown resistance. In the UFC he has a 88.9% takedown defense, stopping 8 of 9 attempts. If that manages to hold against Moreno’s chaining and body lock work, the fight stays in Kavanagh’s preferred rhythm of high pace, frequent resets, and lots of open space.

Key UFC stats snapshot

MetricMorenoKavanagh
Sig. strikes landed per minute (SLpM)3.894.29
Sig. strike accuracy44%49%
Sig. strikes absorbed per minute (SApM)3.623.69
Sig. strike defense60%58%
Takedowns avg per 15 min1.4788.9% UFC TDD (8 of 9)

How this fight is likely to be won

Moreno’s cleanest path to victory is to use volume to draw big exchanges, then layer in clinch touches and takedown attempts to sap Kavanagh’s pace.

Kavanagh’s path is to win the first beat of exchanges repeatedly. If he can get off first, exit clean, and force Moreno to restart without giving up prolonged clinch time then he has a really good chance of taking a decision.

With both men making weight cleanly in Mexico City, expect a fast start and a mid fight adjustment phase where Moreno’s experience in five round reads can really matter most.

UFC Mexico 2026 Moreno vs Kavanagh Prelims Start Times: US, UK, Australia and more.

UFC heads back to Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, 2026 for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, live from Arena CDMX. If you are planning a watch party (or sat on your own), the key detail is the prelims start time: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT.

Below, you will find the UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start times converted for the UK, Australia, and more major regions, plus a quick reference table you can bookmark so you don’t miss out.

UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start time in the US (5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT)

The prelims card begins at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time and 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time on Saturday, February 28. That is the official start time listed for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh.

If you are in the Central or Mountain time zones, that works out to:

  • 4:00 p.m. CT
  • 3:00 p.m. MT

UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start time in the UK (10 p.m. GMT)

For fans in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the prelims are a late-night Saturday start.

  • 10:00 p.m. GMT (UK and Ireland)

February is outside British Summer Time, so GMT is the correct conversion for this date.

UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start time in Australia (Sunday morning)

In Australia, the prelims land on Sunday morning, which is ideal if you prefer breakfast fights.

  • 9:00 a.m. AEDT (Sydney, Melbourne) on Sunday, March 1
  • 8:00 a.m. AEST (Brisbane) on Sunday, March 1
  • 6:00 a.m. AWST (Perth) on Sunday, March 1

UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start times table (global)

Here is a quick global conversion table for the UFC Mexico 2026 prelims start time (Saturday, Feb. 28 at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT).

RegionLocal prelims start time
US (ET)5:00 p.m. Saturday
US (CT)4:00 p.m. Saturday
US (MT)3:00 p.m. Saturday
US (PT)2:00 p.m. Saturday
UK (GMT)10:00 p.m. Saturday
Europe (CET)11:00 p.m. Saturday
Australia (AEDT)9:00 a.m. Sunday
Australia (AEST)8:00 a.m. Sunday
Australia (AWST)6:00 a.m. Sunday
India (IST)3:30 a.m. Sunday