UFC Fight Night 272 live results: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

Another busy month of fight cards for the UFC kicks off this weekend as the Octagon returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 272.

The five-round main event sees a battle of two American Top Team teammates as former lightweight title challenger Renato Moicano takes on Chris Duncan. Moicano returns to action for the first time in nearly ten months as he looks to end his two-fight losing skid. In his first UFC main event, Duncan is looking to break into the rankings and notch his fifth consecutive win.

In the co-main event, Virna Jandiroba, fresh off a title fight loss, looks to get back into contention against Tabatha Ricci in a women’s strawweight bout. Also on the main card is surging prospect Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev taking on Brendson Ribeiro in light heavyweight action; a bantamweight bout between Ethyn Ewing and Rafael Estevam; and a debuting Tommy McMillen taking on Manolo Zecchini in a featherweight tilt.

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> Lightweights- Kai Kamaka (17-7-1, 1-2-1 UFC) vs. Dakota Hope (11-1, 0-0 UFC)

Hope rushes forward and starts throwing and they clinch. Hope lands to the body and head as they break. Hope lands a right hand. Hand with a left hand and they clinch. Kamaka lands to the body as Hope is landing knees to the body. They break apart and Hope lands a right hand. Kamaka lands a combo. Hope lands a series of right hands. Kamaka with a front kick to the body. Kamaka lands a left hand and a leg kick. Kamaka lands a pair of kicks. Hope rushes in landing a combination followed by a knee. They break and both are swinging inside the pocket and Hope lands and Kamaka goes down. Hope starts attacking with tons of hammerfists and punches as Kamaka gets back to his feet. They tie up and Hope lands to the body. They break. Kamaka lands a stiff calf kick. He lands another. They clinch and Hope lands an elbow before they break. Kamaka lands a body kick but eats a combo from Hope. They clinch and both land knees. Hope with a pair of elbows as they separate. 10-9 Hope.

They trade inside the pocket and Hope connects and Kamaka was hurt but the fence kept him standing. They tie up against the fence and Kamaka lands some short punches. They separate and Kamaka lands a leg kick. Both are swinging and connecting to the head and body in close range. Kamaka briefly hurts Hope with a left hook and then lands a calf kick. They clinch and Kamaka lands a pair of stiff knees and Hope lands an elbow and they break. Kamaka lands a stiff body shot but eats a right hand from Hope. Both are landing stiff shots. Kamaka lands a body kick and left hand to the body. 10-9 Kamaka, 19-19.

Kamaka with a pair of body kicks and leg kicks as they trade. Kamaka connects with a left hand and have a brief clinch. Kamaka lands after they separate. They trade before clinching, and Kamaka lands some short punches. Kamaka lands to the body as they separate. Hope lands a left hand. Hope looks for a takedown but Kamaka defends it, though Hope lands an elbow. They trade and Kamaka lands a knee. Hope lands a quick flurry and pushes it against the fence, but Kamaka lands as they break. They clash heads, which they have done a couple of times already. Kamaka lands a left hand. Kamaka lands to the body. Hope gets a takedown but Kamaka quickly gets up and Hope has the back. Really fun fight. 10-9 Kamaka, 29-28 Kamaka.

Fight Result- Kai Kamaka def. Dakota Hope by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

> Women’s Flyweights- Dione Barbosa (8-4, 2-2 UFC) vs. Melissa Gatto (9-2-2, 3-2 UFC)

They trade leg kicks. Gatto works the jab and lands a body kick. Gatto lands a right hand. Barbosa with a spin kick and she lands a left hand. Gatto with a solid right hand. Barbosa lands a solid combo and a big right hand and lands as they break a brief clinch. They clinch against the fence after an exchange and both land short knees. They break and both land. Barbosa looks for a spinning elbow but Gatto ducks under and grabs the back and gets a takedown. They scramble and Gatto is on top but Barbosa lands some elbows from the bottom. Barbosa attacks for an armbar late but Gatto escapes. 10-9 Barbosa.

Gatto lands a leg kick. Barbosa lands and Gatto shoots for a takedown, but Barbosa reverses and ends up on top. Not much happens and Barbosa stands and Gatto tries to stand up and Barbosa lands a head kick and Gatto is out cold. It may have been illegal and replay shows that Gatto was a downed opponent. Wow, the fight is continuing and Barbosa has a point taken away. They get back to action and Gatto goes for a takedown but eats a knee from Barbosa. Gatto completes the takedown and Barbosa is attacking the neck for a guillotine choke. They scramble up and Barbosa scores a takedown. They get up and Barbosa lands a spinning elbow. Gatto scores a takedown. Barbosa is landing from the bottom. Gatto with some short hammerfists from the top. Barbosa with elbows from the bottom. 9-9, 19-18 Barbosa.

Gatto lands a combination followed by a right hand. Barbosa throws a kick and Gatto catches it and scores a takedown, but Barbosa scrambles to the top. Barbosa with a pair of elbows from the half-guard and then lands some punches and elbows to the body. Barbosa with more elbows to the body from the top. Barbosa attacks for an armbar but Gatto is defending from the top and gets her arm free. She lands from inside the guard of Barbosa. Barbosa is able to sweep to the top and lands. They scramble and Gatto is attacking for a kimura. Gatto rolls and looks for an armbar. Barbosa with some elbows. 10-9 Barbosa, 29-27 Barbosa.

Fight Result- Dione Barbosa def. Melissa Gatto by majority decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)

> Middleweights- Azamat Bekoev (20-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Tresean Gore (5-4, 2-4 UFC)

Gore lands a leg kick. Bekoev lands a calf kick. Gore connects with a right hand. Bekoev with a front kick to the face. They trade kicks. Gore with a left hand. Bekoev with a calf kick. They trade leg kicks. Gore with a big body kick. They trade kicks and Bekoev lands a right hand. They trade punches. Bekoev lands a quick uppercut. Bekoev with a hard body kick and follows with a right hand. Bekoev with a left hook. Bekoev lands a body kick. Gore lands a spinning back fist and follows with a right hand. Bekoev looked for a takedown but Gore defends and pushes it to the fence. They break apart and trade back-and-forth before Bekoev pushes it against the fence. 10-9 Bekoev.

Bekoev lands some leg kicks. Bekoev shoots for a takedown and pushes it against the fence. Bekoev lands a knee and they break. Bekoev drops Gore with a punch and starts landing from the top. Gore is trying to get up but Bekoev keeps landing. Gore stands and Bekoev lands but Gore lands a big right hand. Bekoev shoots for a takedown and gets it. Bekoev lands and has the back as they stand. Gore spins and lands in the clinch. Bekoev lands to the body. They trade elbows and break. Bekoev with an elbow. They trade right hands. Bekoev gets a takedown. They get to their feet and Gore scores a takedown. Gore lands but Bekoev is able to get it back to the feet. Gore lands a right hand. Gore forces the clinch and lands a right hand on the break. Wild round. 10-9 Bekoev, 20-18 Bekoev.

Gore lands a leg kick and a right hand. Gore with another heavy leg kick and Bekoev is having trouble standing. Gore lands another. Gore lands a right hand and a body kick. Gore with a combo as he catches a kick from Bekoev. Bekoev with an uppercut and Gore lands a combo. Gore scores a takedown. Bekoev with short punches from the bottom. Gore lands an elbow from the top. Gore gets the mount and lands an elbow. Gore lands a big elbow from the top and looks for an arm-triangle choke. Bekoev scrambles and Gore looks for a guillotine choke. Bekoev goes out cold! What a comeback from Gore!

Fight Result- Tresean Gore def. Azamat Bekoev by submission (guillotine choke) at 3:27 of Round 3

> Women’s Bantamweights- Alice Pereira (5-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Hailey Cowan (7-4, 0-2 UFC)

Pereira lands a combo as Cowan connects with a right hand. Pereira lands a combo and a knee. Pereira with a Superwoman punch and a right hand. Cowan lands a knee. They clinch but break easily. Pereira with another Superwoman punch. Pereira rocks Cowan with a right hand. Pereira lands a combo and Cowan gets a brief takedown and they scramble up. Pereira lands a combination. Cowan with a body kick and she lands a knee. Pereira with a left hand as Cowan was rushing in. Both land while clinched and Pereira lands a right hand on the break. Cowan with a left hand and lands a knee. Cowan catches a leg. 10-9 Pereira.

They trade and Cowan lands a counter left hand. Pereira with a combo and Cowan scores a big takedown. Both landing on the mat as Cowan connects with punches and elbows from the top. Pereira looks to throw her legs up as Cowan is trying to pass the guard. Pereira lands from the bottom but Cowan is keeping control from the top. Cowan lands an elbow from the top. Pereira pushes Cowan off with her feet and they get to their feet. Pereira lands a combination and then drops Cowan with a massive knee and Cowan is out cold! What a finish from Pereira!

Fight Result- Alice Pereira def. Hailey Cowan by knockout (knee) at 4:24 of Round 2

> Lightweights*- Lando Vannata (12-7-2, 4-7-2 UFC) vs. Darrius Flowers (12-8-1, 0-3 UFC)

*Flowers missed weight by a half-pound

They trade and Vannata gets a takedown, but Flowers forces a scramble up. They trade leg kicks. Vannata lands and looks for a takedown, but Flowers defends. Vannata catches a kick and scores a takedown. Flowers looks for an arm from the bottom. Vannata gets his arm free and is inside the guard of Flowers. Vannata lands from the top. Flowers tries to scramble up but Vannata quickly grabs the body and keeps him down. Flowers tries to force a scramble but Vannata stays on top. Flowers almost had an armbar but Vannata escapes and they stand. Vannata lands a body kick and a right hand. Flowers slams Vannata to the mat and Vannata looks hurt. Flowers lands punches from the top. Flowrs with big punches to end the round. 10-9 Flowers.

Vannata lands a right hand and a leg kick. Vannata looks for a takedown but Flowers trips him down and starts landing from the top and it is stopped. Flowers picks up his first UFC win.

Fight Result- Darrius Flowers def. Lando Vannata by TKO (punches) at :52 of Round 2

> Flyweights- Alessandro Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) vs. Stewart Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC)

Costa lands some leg kicks early and Nicoll mixes some kicks to the body and legs. Costa lands a combination. Nicoll with a leg kick but eats a counter combination from Costa. Nicoll with an inside leg kick. Costa lands to the body. Costa lands a right hand that stuns Nicoll. Nicoll lands a body kick. They trade combinations in close range. Nicoll looks for a takedown but Costa defends. Costa lands a left hand and a knee. Costa hurts Nicoll with a body shot. Nicoll with a spinning back fist. Costa lands a right hand and Nicoll circles away. 10-9 Costa.

They trade and Costa lands a leg kick. They trade right hands. Costa looks for a takedown but Nicoll defends and Costa gets the back. Costa almost had it down and is on the back of Nicoll. Nicoll escapes and they circle to the center. They trade front kicks and Nicoll lands a right hand. Nicoll looks for a takedown but Costa defends. Costa has the body lock and looks for a takedown along the fence. He lands as they break. Nicoll lands a right hand. Costa lands a right hand and a combination. Nicoll shoots for a long takedown but Costa escapes. Nicoll lands a right hand to the body. Costa with a spinning elbow and lands a knee and is landing as Nicoll is hurt and trying to run away. Costa grabs the body lock and drags it down. They separate. Costa lands a combo. Costa hurts Nicoll with a liver shot and Nicoll goes down and a couple of follow-up shots end it. What a finish from Costa!

Fight Result- Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll by TKO (punches) at 4:56 of Round 2

> Heavyweights- Guilherme Pat (6-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Thomas Petersen (10-4, 2-3 UFC)

Petersen lands a leg kick. Pat lands a high kick. Pat lands a hard body kick. Pat with a leg kick. Petersen just misses a right hand but they clinch along the fence. Petersen lands a knee. Petersen working hard to get it down but Pat is defending well. They break apart and Petersen lands a leg kick. Pat lands a hard calf kick. Pat with a snap jab. Pat lands a heavy leg kick. Petersen rushes in and lands before getting the clinch. They separate. Not much of a round. 10-9 Petersen.

They trade and Petersen initiates the clinch and pushes it against the fence. They break after no action. Pat lands a high kick. Pat lands a stiff jab. Petersen rushes forward throwing but nothing connects. Petersen lands a body kick. Pat lands a combination and they clinch against the fence. Petersen lands a knee. Pat lands a knee as Petersen lands to the body against the fence. Pat lands a leg kick after they separate. 10-9 Petersen, 20-18 Petersen.

Petersen gets Pat down to the mat and lands heavy shots from the top. They stand and Petersen lands a knee and Pat lands a right hand but Petersen lands an uppercut and Pat goes down. Petersen gets on top and starts landing punches and elbows. Petersen with some big right hands. Petersen controlling from the top and lands a pair of right hands. Petersen continues to land from the top. Pat is gassed out on the bottom. Petersen with more shots from the top. Petersen with an elbow. They trade on the mat. 10-9 Petersen, 30-27 Petersen.

Fight Result- Thomas Petersen def. Guilherme Pat by majority decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)

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> Featherweights- Jose Delano (16-3, 0-0 UFC) vs. Robert Ruchala (11-2, 0-1 UFC)

Delano landing more to start as he connects with a right hand and a body kick. Delano with a pair of body kicks. Ruchala tries to tie up but Delano throws him off. Ruchala with a spinning back fist. Ruchala lands a right hand. Ruchala lands a leg kick followed by a right hand. Delano with a hard body kick. They trade inside the pocket. They tie up against the fence. They break and trade. Ruchala lands a high kick. They trade and Delano looks to grapple but they separate. Ruchala with a leg kick then a high kick. Ruchala lands a leg kick and a right hand. Ruchala with a high kick. Ruchala lands a body kick and a head kick. Close round. 10-9 Delano.

Ruchala lands a leg kick and a left hand. They clinch and Ruchala lands a knee but then Delano starts pressing forward and lands. Ruchala lands a spin kick to the body. Ruchala with a pair of kicks. Ruchala lands a right hand and a spin kick. Delano with an inside leg kick. Ruchala lands a body kick. They trade leg kicks as Delano lands a combination. Delano with a left hand and Ruchala is backing up. Delano lands a combination. Delano landing with more volume as the round goes on. Ruchala lands a right hand. Delano with a knee and some left hands in the clinch. Ruchala lands a right hand. Delano with a pair of left hands and a body kick. Delano lands some more. Delano stuns Ruchala with a jab. They clinch and Delano lands. Delano with a combo and a body kick. 10-9 Delano, 20-18 Delano.

They trade in a tie up to start the third. Ruchala lands a body kick as they separate. Ruchala lands a body punch and Delano lands a body kick. They both land inside the pocket. Delano lands a right hand. Ruchala with a combination. Delano lands to the body. Ruchala lands a body kick. Ruchala with a high kick. They clinch and Delano lands a series of right hands. Ruchala lands to the body. Delano with a body kick. Delano with a pair of knees. Delano lands some punches and kicks to the body. They tie up against the fence. Delano looks for a takedown and Ruchala grabs the fence clearly in front of the referee and timeout is called. Ruchala gets a point taken away They get back going. They break and Delano lands a body kick and a left hand. Delano lands a combination. Delano with a straight right hand. Delano lands a combo and a left hand. They trade at the end. 10-8 Delano, 30-26 Delano.

Fight Result- Jose Delano def. Robert Ruchala by unanimous decision (30-26, 29-27, 29-27)

> Featherweights- Tommy McMillen (9-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Manolo Zecchini (11-4, 0-1 UFC)

McMillen lands a combination and Zecchini lands a right hand. McMillen lands a combo and Zecchini looks for a takedown, but McMillen defends and lands another combo. Zecchini lands a right hand and McMillen hurts Zecchini with a right hand. They trade knees. McMillen lands a right hand. Zecchini with a right hand and McMillen lands a knee to the groin and timeout is called. They get back to action and McMillen lands a right hand. They trade right hands. McMillen lands a combo. McMillen with a pair of jabs. Zecchini lands a leg kick. They trade inside the pocket. McMillen hurts Zecchini with a flurry of punches and knees. McMillen landing against the fence and Zecchini goes down after a pair of knees and McMillen finishes it off! Big win for McMillen!

Fight Result- Tommy McMillen def. Manolo Zecchini by TKO (strikes) at 3:57 of Round 1

> Bantamweights*- Ethyn Ewing (9-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Rafael Estevam (14-0, 3-0 UFC)

*Estevam missed weight by a half-pound

Estevam lands a leg kick. He lands another. Ewing lands a combination. They trade leg kicks and Ewing works the jab. Estevam lands a combination. Estevam shoots for a takedown but Ewing sprawls and defends. They separate. Ewing lands a left hook and a leg kick. Estevam rushes in to land and Ewing lands a combination. Estevam with a combo. Timeout is called for a groin strike by Ewing. They get back to action and Estevam lands a leg kick. Ewing with a combo and a right hand. Estevam looks for a takedown but Ewing defends. Ewing with a leg kick and a solid right hand and a combo. Estevam shoots for a takedown but Ewing sprawls and Ewing lands a big combination and has Estevam hurt late but the bell sounds. 10-9 Ewing.

Estevam lands a quick combo and a leg kick. They tie up and Ewing lands a knee. Ewing lands some big combinations and Estevam’s nose is busted up. Ewing with a combo and an elbow. Ewing working the jab. Ewing lands an uppercut and follows with a left hook. Ewing with a stiff calf kick. Ewing is way ahead on volume this round. Ewing with a pair of right hands. Ewing hurts Estevam with a big right hand. Estevam tried a takedown but Ewing defended and Estevam was wobbly on his feet. Ewing lands a big flurry against the fence. Estevam shoots and Ewing defends again and then lands a combination. Estevam shoots again and Ewing defends and lands a head kick. Ewing lands against the fence. 10-9 Ewing, 20-18 Ewing.

They trade in close range. Ewing lands a leg kick. Ewing with a jab. He lands more jabs. Ewing snaps Estevam’s head back with a jab. Estevam lands a leg kick. Ewing with more jabs. Ewing hurts Estevam with a right hand. Ewing with a right hand and he then drops Estevam with a left hand to the liver and it is all over! What a performance from Ewing!

Fight Result- Ethyn Ewing def. Rafael Estevam by TKO (punch) at 1:44 of Round 3

> Light Heavyweights- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (17-9, 2-4 UFC)

Ribeiro lands a leg kick and a right hand that briefly hurts Yakhyaev. Yakhyaev then lands two right hands but gets clipped by Ribeiro. Yakhyaev looks for a takedown but Ribeiro defends. Yakhyaev lands a left hand. Yakhyaev catches a kick and takes Ribeiro down. Yakhyaev has the body lock on the mat and lands some big punches. Yakhyaev with punches from the back. Yakhyaev drags it back down. Yakhyaev locks in a rear-naked choke and Ribeiro taps! Yakhyaev gets another finish.

Fight Result- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Brendson Ribeiro by submission (rear-naked choke) at 2:52 of Round 1

> Women’s Strawweights- #3 Virna Jandiroba (22-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. #7 Tabatha Ricci (12-3, 7-3 UFC)

Jandiroba lands a combo. Jandiroba scores a takedown, but they get up. Jandiroba scores another takedown. They get up and Jandiroba continues to chase the takedown and gets it. Jandiroba gets the back and controls until the end of the round. There was very little action. 10-9 Jandiroba.

Jandiroba lands a combination. Ricci swings and Jandiroba scores a takedown. Jandiroba lands some shots from the top. Jandiroba keeping top control as Ricci tries to scramble out. Ricci with some elbows from the bottom. Jandiroba lands from the top but Ricci kicks her off and they get to their feet. Jandiroba lands a right hand and Ricci goes to the mat, but gets up. Jandiroba scores a takedown and ends the round on top. 10-9 Jandiroba, 20-18 Jandiroba.

They trade and Jandiroba lands a jab. Ricci scores a takedown but Jandiroba is able to sweep to the feet and they clinch against the fence. They separate. Ricci lands a leg kick. Ricci with a knee as Jandiroba lands a right hand. Jandiroba lands a jab and shoots for a takedown, but Ricci defends. They trade after they separate. Jandiroba lands a right hand as Ricci lands one. Ricci lands a combination. Ricci with a head kick and Jandiroba lands a right hand. Ricci with another combo. Ricci with a right hand. They trade punches. Jandiroba looks for a takedown as she grabs a leg. Jandiroba grabs the body and scores a takedown. Jandiroba takes the back of Ricci. Jandiroba landing from the back. 10-9 Jandiroba, 30-27 Jandiroba.

Fight Result- Virna Jandiroba def. Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

> Lightweights- #10 Renato Moicano (20-7-1, 12-7 UFC) vs. Chris Duncan (15-2, 6-1 UFC)

Duncan lands some early leg kicks. Duncan with a leg kick and a combination. Moicano looks for a takedown as he clinches against the fence. Duncan lands some knees. They separate. Moicano lands a right hand. He lands another right hand. Moicano with a leg kick. Duncan almost lands a head kick. Moicano lands a jab and grabs the single leg and pushes it against the fence. They end up breaking apart. Moicano lands a jab and another. Moicano lands a knee in a brief tie-up. Moicano with another jab. Duncan lands a leg kick and a left hook. Moicano with a front kick. Duncan with a high kick. 10-9 Moicano.

Duncan with a pair of leg kicks. Moicano lands a front kick. Duncan lands a right hand and a leg kick. They exchange punches in close range. Moicano looks for a takedown but Duncan defends. Duncan lands a series of strikes. Moicano hurts Duncan with a punch and quickly gets on the back as they go to the mat. Moicano lands some hammerfists and almost had a choke in. Duncan is bleeding heavily from his nose. Moicano has the hooks locked on from the back. Moicano lands to the body. Moicano with lots of punches from the back. Moicano locks in a choke and Duncan quickly taps! Moicano picks up the win in the main event.

Fight Result- Renato Moicano def. Chris Duncan by submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:14 of Round 2

UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan Predictions

UFC Fight Night 272 (UFC Vegas 115) lands on Saturday, April 4, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, and it’s a decent 13-fight card with genuinely compelling matchups from top to bottom. Here are expert predictions for every bout, with odds and analysis.

Full Card Predictions at a Glance

FightPickMethodConfidence
Moicano vs. DuncanMoicanoSubmission, R2Medium
Jandiroba vs. RicciJandirobaDecisionHigh
Yakhyaev vs. RibeiroYakhyaevTKO, R2High
Estevam vs. EwingEstevamSubmission, R1Medium
McMillen vs. ZecchiniMcMillenDecisionMedium
Delano vs. RuchałaDelanoTKOMedium
Costa vs. NicollCostaTKO, R1Very High
Vannata vs. FlowersVannataDecisionHigh
Pat vs. PetersenPetersenDecisionLow
Pereira vs. CowanPereiraSubmissionMedium
Bekoev vs. GoreBekoevTKOMedium
Barbosa vs. GattoGattoDecisionMedium
Kamaka III vs. HopeKamaka IIIDecisionMedium

Main Card Breakdowns

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan – Lightweight (5 Rounds)

Odds: Duncan -192 / Moicano +160

The market favors the Scot, and it’s understandable. Duncan is on a four-fight win streak and hasn’t tasted defeat in over two years, but Moicano’s last two losses came against Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, arguably the two best lightweights on the planet. His experience, submission ceiling, and counter-striking IQ are being significantly undervalued here.

Duncan’s 4.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats), among the highest in the division, is a glaring vulnerability against a tactician of Moicano’s caliber. Expect Moicano to time Duncan’s reckless forward pressure and drag this to the ground where his BJJ becomes a submission threat at every exchange.

Prediction: Renato Moicano by Submission

Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci – Women’s Strawweight

Odds: Jandiroba -108 / Ricci -108 (near pick’em)

This is essentially a coin flip at the odds level, but Jandiroba has a decisive edge: she is one of the most dangerous submission artists in women’s MMA at 22-4, holding a significant grappling advantage over Ricci’s more striking-dependent style. Both fighters land over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Jandiroba’s submission game gives her a path to a finish that Ricci simply does not possess in kind.

Prediction: Virna Jandiroba by Decision or Late Submission

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro – Light Heavyweight

Odds: Yakhyaev -165 / Ribeiro +130

Yakhyaev is a high-pressure wrestler from Dagestan with legitimate finishing ability, and Ribeiro, while a capable jiu-jitsu practitioner, has proven very hittable and stoppable in the UFC. Yakhyaev’s wrestling-heavy Dagestani game plan should dominate the clinch and cage work, and a TKO off ground-and-pound is a very realistic outcome here..

Prediction: Yakhyaev by TKO

Rafael Estevam vs. Ethyn Ewing – Bantamweight

Odds: Estevam -155 / Ewing +125

Estevam is a Brazilian submission specialist with serious finishing ability at 135 lbs. Ewing brings solid grappling credentials but Estevam’s jiu-jitsu is elite-tier for this level of competition. A first-round submission attempt is firmly in play from the opening bell.

Prediction: Estevam by Submission

Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini – Featherweight

Odds: McMillen -165 / Zecchini +135

McMillen is the more established UFC-level fighter, with better striking output and ring generalship than Zecchini has demonstrated. This feels like a fight McMillen controls on the feet across three rounds, where his volume and pace wear down a more one-dimensional opponent.

Prediction: McMillen by Unanimous Decision

UFC Fight Night Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan Fight Preview and Breakdown

When Renato “Money” Moicano steps into the cage against Chris “The Problem” Duncan at UFC Fight Night 272 on Saturday, April 4, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, two contrasting lightweight philosophies collide in what is shaping up as one of the most tactically interesting main events of the year.

Tale of the Tape

CategoryRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
Record20-7-115-2-0
UFC Record12-77-2
Age3632
Height5′ 11″5′ 10″
Reach72″71″
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
TeamAmerican Top TeamAmerican Top Team
NationalityBrazilianScottish
Fighting StyleBrazilian Jiu-JitsuMixed Martial Artist

Remarkably, both fighters train out of American Top Team, a quirk that makes this main event uniquely fascinating from a camp preparation standpoint, as coaches will have walked the room with both men.

Statistical Breakdown

StatRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min4.175.02
Striking Accuracy48%46%
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min3.574.82
Striking Defense59%51%
Takedowns/15 Min1.13.27
Takedown Accuracy60%42%
Takedown Defense62%50%
Submission Avg./15 Min0.50.7
Finish Rate55%73%
Avg. Fight Time9:287:38

Two numbers tell the story of this entire fight. Duncan’s 4.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats) is alarming for a main event fighter. This points to a reckless, forward-pressure style that favors aggression over defensive control. On the other side of the ledger, Moicano’s 59% striking defense (via UFCStats) built over a 28-fight career against top-level opposition, places him as precisely the type of calculated counter-striker who punishes that approach.

Fighter Profiles

Renato Moicano

Moicano’s career is one of modern MMA’s great reinvention stories. Originally a featherweight title-quality-level contender with exceptional jiu-jitsu, he rebuilt himself at 155 lbs into a calculating, multi-dimensional threat. The turning point was a string of four consecutive finishes, including a KO of Jalin Turner at UFC 300, a TKO of Benoit Saint Denis, and a decision win over Beneil Dariush, that earned him a last-minute title shot against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January 2025, where he was submitted by D’Arce choke in the first round. He followed that with a decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan, two of the top-three fighters on the planet at 155. His pedigree remains elite, and he is a BJJ black belt whose submission game is live from virtually any position on the mat.

Chris Duncan

Duncan, 32, from Alloa, Scotland, is the embodiment of forward-pressure, high-volume, finish-or-be-finished lightweight MMA. He rode a remarkable trajectory from modest beginnings to the UFC with a wrecking-ball style, racking up 11 finishes in 15 wins, including a signature guillotine choke over Bolaji Oki and a unanimous decision over Mateusz Rębecki. His four-fight UFC win streak earned him this first UFC main event. However, that 4.82 strikes absorbed per minute figure and his career KO loss on record are question marks that a fighter of Moicano’s IQ wouldn’t have missed.

Key Technical Matchup Areas

The Feet: Counter-Striking vs. Volume Pressure

Duncan is a pressure fighter who walks opponents down and throws with conviction, and his 5.02 significant strikes per minute output demands respect. But Moicano is not a fighter who gets rattled by forward movement. His 48% striking accuracy combined with a 59% defensive rate means he absorbs far less than Duncan tends to dish out, suggesting he will be picking shots behind a stiff jab and looking for the right moment to time the big counter.

The Grappling: Takedown Volume vs. Submission Ceiling

Duncan’s 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes is elite-level volume for a lightweight, but his 42% takedown accuracy is considerably below average, meaning he shoots often and misses often. Every failed shot against a BJJ practitioner of Moicano’s caliber, a man with 10 career submission wins, is a direct invitation to a finishing submission sequence.

Pace and Fight Duration

Duncan’s average fight time of 7:38 minutes vs. Moicano’s 9:28 tells an important story. Duncan is a fast finisher or a fader, with limited evidence right now whether he thrives in the championship rounds…and this is a five-round main event. If Moicano survives early pressure, and his experience against the division’s very best suggests he really can, the tide may shift significantly from round three onward.

How Each Fighter Wins

Path to VictoryMoicanoDuncan
Most Likely MethodSubmission (R2–R3)TKO via strikes (R1–R2)
Key WeaponBJJ from guard, D’Arce chokeForward pressure, volume striking
Must AvoidEarly sloppy exchangesClinch entries and failed shot attempts
Danger ZoneFirst two rounds vs. Duncan’s paceRounds 3–5 if fight goes long

Duncan’s window to win this fight is narrow but real. If he can land heavy early, force Moicano to brawl, and prevent grappling from becoming a factor, his finishing instinct probably takes over. Moicano’s path is longer but arguably more reliable. If Moicano can survive the storm, stay disciplined, then he can go for a submission in the later rounds.

Who will win?

This is a fight the oddsmakers have slightly wrong. Chris Duncan at -192 is overpriced for a man whose defensive metrics are among the worst in a UFC main event in recent memory. Moicano at +160 brings a pedigree, submission ceiling, and tactical intelligence that thoroughly justifies backing him at that number.

I’m expecting Moicano to weather the early pressure, time Duncan’s reckless forward movement, and end this fight via submission somewhere in the second or third round. That would be a fitting statement win that puts his name firmly back in the top-10 lightweight conversation.