January 8, 2018 Wrestling Observer Newsletter: More Women’s Royal Rumble details, UFC 219 reviewed, more

The 2018 Royal Rumble show will have both a 30 man Royal Rumble as well as a 30 woman Rumble on 1/28 in Philadelphia.

The idea of doing equal matches means that a number of wrestlers from the past or women in developmental will have to be called up since there are 18 women on the active roster between Raw and Smackdown and two of the 18 won’t be in because they are the champions. It also eliminates both champions from wrestling on the show in theory, since they already did the champion vs. champion match and all the other women have to be in the Rumble.

In addition, that would also in theory mean roughly two one hour matches on the same show, unless they cut the entrance time down. Usually the entrances are at intervals whenever the company wants them, but are usually announced at two minutes, but often are closer to 90 seconds and have been 60 seconds at times. I’m not sure the women’s Rumble needs 30 participants but there will probably be surprises involved.

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UFC 219 Observer Panel Picks: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm

It’s the last event of a relatively down year for MMA as UFC 219 airs on PPV Saturday night from Las Vegas, NV.

Cris Cyborg defends her featherweight title against former bantamweight champion Holly Holm in the main event. This will be Cyborg’s first title defense in a division that is relatively contenderless as there’s only 2-3 women in the actual division.

In the co-main, it’s a likely title eliminator situation as the unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov returns after a long layoff to face Edson Barboza in a battle of top five lightweight contenders. Nurmagomedov was supposed to face Tony Ferguson for the interim belt earlier this year, but the enigmatic Russian failed to make weight and the fight went to Keith Lee instead. He’s been off for more than a year and will try to keep his streak going against the longtime contender Barboza who was last seen knocking out Beneil Dariush in March.

Outside of the top two matches, this card is relatively thin for a PPV. Jimmie Rivera was originally scheduled to face former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and later John Lineker but when Lineker dropped out due to a tooth infection, there wasn’t enough notice to find Rivera an opponent so that fight was scrapped despite the efforts to get Marlon Moraes to take the bout.

Former WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit will meet Neil Magny in a welterweight fight that will kick off the main card, while the unbeaten Cynthia Calvillo will try to keep that zero in the loss column when she faces the first ever UFC strawweight champion, Carla Esparza.

Rounding out our panel picks is a featherweight fight on the FS1 prelims where former TUF lightweight competitor Myles Jury will attempt to pick up his second straight win since moving down a weight class as he meets former WSOF champion Rick Glenn. The latter is coming off a one-sided beatdown of rising contender Gavin Tucker in his last fight.  

If you’re new here, our panel picks are listed below and alongside the fighter’s names are their worldwide FightMatrix rankings, as well as BestFightOdds.com betting odds. The panelist’s 2017 records is in parentheses, and we also have panel consensus picks as well as a line where we show how the betting favorites did:

  • Dave Meltzer (54-26; .675) — Wrestling Observer publisher
  • John Pollock (54-26; .675) – POST Wrestling co-founder
  • Favorites (54-26; .675)
  • Consensus Picks (50-29; .633)
  • Tom Lawlor (27-16; .628) – Co-host of Filthy Four Daily; pro wrestling undercard fighter; UFC enhancement talent currently suspended due to wellness violation
  • Steve Juon (50-30; .625) — MMA Mania writer, Angry Marks publisher
  • Josh Nason (50-30; .625) — Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out, WrestlingObserver.com assistant editor
  • Mike Sempervive (50-30; .625) — Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
  • Mike Sawyer (49-31; .613) — Tough Talk MMA publisher
  • David Bixenspan (48-32; .600) – Deadspin pro wrestling columnist; Between the Sheets podcast host
  • Ryan Frederick (46-34; .575) — WrestlingObserver.com UFC writer
  • Front Row Brian (43-37; .538) — MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, podcast host
  • Paul Fontaine (41-39; .513) — MMADraws.com publisher, WrestlingObserver.com writer

> UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion Cris Cyborg (18-1) vs Holly Holm (11-3)

Cyborg is fighting for the fourth time in the UFC and has knocked out all three of her previous opponents, including Tony Evinger in her last bout to win the title that had been vacated by Germaine de Randamie. She is facing a woman who will most likely be the most skilled striker she’s ever seen in former bantamweight champion Holm.

Holm rebounded from a three-fight losing streak, the first three losses of her career, to defeat former title challenger Bethe Correia with a question mark kick that capped off an otherwise dull fight. If she can withstand with the brutal attack of the champion, her best hope is that Cyborg tires out and Holm is able to catch her late in the fight in similar fashion.

The oddsmakers seem to think that Holm has a better chance of pulling off the upset than any of Cyborg’s previous UFC opponents as she is usually anywhere from a -700 to -1000 favorite. The odds are much closer this time around.

  • Cyborg #1; -320 betting favorite: Sawyer, Juon, Frederick, Pollock, Bix, Nason, Dave
  • Holm #5; +315 betting underdog: FRB, Lawlor, Fontaine, Sempervive

> Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0) vs Edson Barboza (19-4)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

This makes for a very interesting style matchup here as Nurmagomedov is known for taking his opponents down at will and smothering his way to victory. It’s not terribly exciting but it’s effective as evidenced by his long unblemished record. Barboza, meanwhile, is one of the most dynamic strikers in the division, capable of a knockout at any time. He’s an almost even-money bet to pick up a post show bonus award as he’s racked up eight of them in 17 UFC fights as opposed to none for his opponent.

With divisional kingpin Conor McGregor seemingly holding the belt hostage, the winner here will almost certainly get interim champion Tony Ferguson sometime in 2018.

  • Nurmagomedov #6; -265 betting favorite: Sawyer, FRB, Frederick, Juon, Pollock, Sempervive, Nason
  • Barboza #4; +260 betting underdog: Lawlor, Fontaine, Bix, Dave

> Cynthia Calvillo (6-0) vs Carla Esparza (12-4)
STRAWWEIGHTS

Calvillo has taken the UFC by storm as the Team Alpha Male product debuted early this year with just three fights on her resume. She had the rare distinction of appearing on the main card of two straight UFC PPVs, winning both of her fights by submission. She followed that up with a decision over veteran Joanne Calderwood in July and will fight for the fifth time in 2017 (she also fought on a regional show in January) against former champion Esparza.

Esparza, who was also a champion in Invicta, won the TUF 20 tournament to claim the women’s strawweight title. She lost her first title defense to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but has rebounded to win two of three since then. She does hold a victory over current champion Rose Namajunas so a win here could get her close to a rematch with “Thug Rose”.

  • Calvillo #13; -210 betting favorite: Sawyer, FRB, Frederick, Lawlor, Fontaine, Bix, Sempervive, Nason, Dave
  • Esparza #8; +245 betting underdog: Juon, Pollock

Carlos Condit (30-10) vs Neil Magny (19-6)
WELTERWEIGHTS

When we last saw Condit 17 months ago, the former title challenger was submitted in the first round by Demian Maia and many felt it might be the last time we’d see him in the Octagon. After that long time off, he returns tonight and will hope to avoid his third straight loss against longtime contender Magny. Although he’d faced very tough competition, Condit only has one victory in almost five years and badly needs a W here.

Magny’s history is such that he usually beats the guys ranked behind him and loses to those ahead of him, so he’s been stuck in the bottom half of the top 10 rankings for a couple of years now. He’s also lost two of his last three, but a victory here would be the biggest of his long career and might finally move him into the top five of a tough division.

  • Condit NR; -152 betting favorite: FRB, Frederick, Lawlor, Pollock, Bix, Sempervive, Nason, Dave
  • Magny #13; +155 betting underdog: Sawyer, Juon, Fontaine

> Myles Jury (16-2) vs Rick Glenn (20-4-1)
FEATHERWEIGHTS

Jury returned from a 16-month absence and KO’d Mike De La Torre in the first round earlier this year to snap a two-fight losing streak. The one-time lightweight may be even better than his impressive record shows as his only two losses have come at the hands of Charles Oliveira and Donald Cerrone. He doesn’t immediately spring to the mind when you think of title challengers, but that record is hard to ignore and increased activity will only help his cause.

Glenn has picked up two straight since losing a short notice fight in his UFC debut against the much larger Evan Dunham at lightweight. He’s actually won five straight in the weight class since losing his WSOF title to Lance Palmer in 2014. He couldn’t have looked better in his last fight, destroying the previous unbeaten Gavin Tucker in a bout that got the very rare 30-24 score including one round that was scored 10-7. This fight could steal the show.

  • Jury #17; -185 betting favorite: Sawyer, Juon, Frederick, Lawlor, Fontaine, Nason, Dave
  • Glenn #41; +198 betting underdog: FRB, Pollock, Bix, Sempervive

**********

The rest of the card:

> Daniel Hooker (14-7) vs Marc Diakese (12-1)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

  • Hooker #50; +174 betting underdog
  • Diakese #112; -178 betting favorite

> Khalil Rountree (6-2) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (12-2)
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

  • Rountree #49; -300 betting favorite
  • Oleksiejczuk #97; +285  betting underdog

> Omari Akhmedov (17-4) vs Marvin Vettori (12-3)MIDDLEWEIGHTS

  • Akhmedov #76 at welterweight; +186 betting underdog
  • Vettori #55; -205 betting favorite

> Louis Smolka (11-4) vs Matheus Nicolau (12-1-1) FLYWEIGHTS

  • Smolka #27; +255 betting underdog
  • Nicolau NR; -214 betting favorite

> Tim Elliott (14-8-1) vs Mark De La Rosa (9-0) BANTAMWEIGHTS

  • Elliott #9 at flyweight; -200 betting favorite
  • De La Rosa #108; +185 betting underdog

– Action begins with the Fight Pass prelim at 7:30 PM EST and moves over to FS 1 at 8 PM EST. The main card airs on PPV at 10 PM EST, and yours truly will have play by play coverage of the show.

– Josh Nason spoke with fellow panel member John Pollock about UFC 219, the launch of his new website and other pro wrestling and MMA topics on the latest edition of Josh Nason’s Punch Out. 

JNPO: Inside the launch of POST Wrestling

For years, John Pollock and Wai Ting were known to wrestling fans for their work on Live Audio Wrestling, The Fight Network, and a popular podcast series that reviewed weekly wrestling shows.

In late-October, the two were laid off from The Fight Network but instead of folding into corporate life and podcasting as a hobby, the two developed POST Wrestling over the past two months, part free and part funded by Patreon — now with over 800 people funding their operation at a minimum of $6/head.

On the latest Josh Nason’s Punch-Out, Pollock answers all the questions you have about the story behind the launch, the decision to enter into the paid content realm, whether the LAW show will come back in their new endeavor, whether he’ll cover MMA, and plenty more.

Then, the guys talk for about 15-20 minutes about MMA going into 2018 and some high-level thoughts about Saturday’s UFC 219 show.

It’s the final JNPO of 2017 and it’s free for you to listen to. Happy New Year!

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Marlon Moraes unlikely to face Jimmie Rivera at UFC 219

After a few days of trying to put together a match with Jimmie Rivera vs. Marlon Moraes, a tweet last night by Rivera indicates it’s not happening.

“Sorry to my fans friends and family @MMARLOONMORAES said no to the 10 pounds. Those were his terms. I agreed, and then he withdrew the offer.”

Rivera was looking for a new opponent for Saturday’s UFC 219 pay-per-view. He was supposed to face John Lineker, who pulled out due to emergency oral surgery after already coming to Las Vegas.

Rivera vs. Lineker was third from the top on Saturday’s show, behind the Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm featherweight title fight and Edson Barboza vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Rivera had tried to get Moraes as a new opponent, although Moraes is coming off fights on November 11th with John Dodson (winning via split decision) and December 9th with Aljamain Sterling (winning via quick knockout). He had offered the fight at 138, 140, and finally 145 but Moraes turned it down.

Given the quick turnaround and the importance of the fight when it came to the title picture, it wasn’t in Moraes’ best interest to take a fight at the last minute with no specific training.

UFC 219 loses main card matchup due to John Lineker tooth infection

Less than a week before the show, UFC 219 has lost one of its main card matchups.

MMA Fighting first reported today that John Lineker won’t be able to fight at the pay-per-view due to a tooth infection. Lineker will have emergency surgery and is expected to return to training in approximately three weeks.

Lineker was scheduled to face Jimmie Rivera in what was the third biggest fight on the card. The UFC hasn’t confirmed whether Rivera will still fight at the PPV, though MMA Fighting noted that they’re looking for a replacement opponent. Lineker himself was an injury replacement in the bout after Dominick Cruz was forced out of it when he broke his arm.

UFC 219 is the company’s last show of the year and will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday night. With the UFC yet to announce Rivera’s updated plans for the show, here’s the current main card lineup with Lineker out:

  • UFC women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg defending against Holly Holm
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Edson Barboza
  • Cynthia Calvillo vs. Carla Esparza
  • Carlos Condit vs. Neil Magny

Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm set for UFC 219

UFC women’s featherweight champion Cris “Cyborg” Justino vs. Holly Holm — the biggest women’s marquee fight UFC could put on with its current roster — was announced late Thursday for UFC 219 on December 30th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

The promotion had been trying to put the fight together, but last week Holm’s agent, Lenny Fresquez, said the match was dead. However, negotiations restarted the past few days and were just completed, giving UFC a championship fight for a PPV that is just over six weeks away.

Justino (18-1-1) won the championship in a UFC weight division that really only has one competitor, herself. She overwhelmed longtime bantamweight Tonya Evinger to win the vacant title earlier this year.

Holm, who also fights at bantamweight, moved up to featherweight to face Germaine de Randamie in the first-ever UFC women’s featherweight championship fight earlier in the year, created partiall because a UFC PPV in Brooklyn needed a main event title match.

De Randamie won the match via close decision, and then was stripped of the title when not facing Justino, who the division was created for.

Holm (11-3), is beat known for beating Ronda Rousey before more than 56,000 fans in Melbourne, Australia, in one of the most memorable moments in UFC history. She followed that up losing three fights in a row before knocking out Bethe Correia in June.

Holm also drew one of the company’s best television ratings of the past several years in a fight against Valentina Shevchenko, which she lost via decision.

Justino has been a major name fighter coming off a Strikeforce featherweight title win over Gina Carano that set a ratings record at the time for Showtime. She lost her title after testing positive for Stanazolol, but has not lost a fight in more than 12 years.