Tag: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano was ‘most watched MMA event ever in the U.S.’

Posted on by Josh Nason

This past Saturday’s first-ever MMA event on Netflix featuring the return of Ronda Rousey after nearly a decade drew substantial viewership.

The streaming giant and MVP Promotions issued a dual statement Tuesday, announcing that “over 12.4 million viewers around the world tuned in live on Netflix with viewership peaking at almost 17 million during Rousey vs. Carano, making it one of the most-watched MMA events of all time.”

They also claimed that in the U.S., the main card averaged 9.3 million viewers with a peak of 11.6 million for the main event. That would exceed the UFC on Fox one hour debut show that peaked at 8.8 million with a 5.7 million average for Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos.

The main card saw an average per minute audience of 12.4 million for Live+1 globally, attributed to VideoAmp, G&C and Netflix. The other stats were not directly attributed to the same sources.

MVP also stated their live gate at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles was $2.2 million.

“We’ve received an overwhelming amount of interest from investors, strategic partners, and fighters who want to be involved with MVP and the future of MVP MMA. We are currently reviewing all strategic options to do something very meaningful within MMA on a go-forward basis with a distribution partner like Netflix that shares our vision to create lasting impact,” MVP co-founders Jake Paula and Nakisa Bidarian said in the release.

Rousey defeated Carano in 17 seconds in the main event, headlining a show that also featured former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou and fan favorites Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry.

TKO exec addresses UFC passing on Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano: ‘More of a stunt than a meaningful MMA event’

Posted on by Josh Nason

TKO head Mark Shapiro is now on the record regarding why the UFC passed on the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight that aired on Netflix this past Saturday.

Speaking at the JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference Monday, Shapiro said the reason UFC passed on Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano was it “more of a stunt than a meaningful MMA event” and one he thought wasn’t good for the sport after how it played out.

“(Netflix) wants big spectacle events and they saw this as a big spectacle event. We’re in the true MMA business on a meaningful, consistent basis. When we looked at this potential matchup, keep in mind there’s a real art and skill to matchmaking….The answers (he & Ari Emanuel) got back (from Dana White & Hunter Campbell) were that fight will be over in 20 seconds,” he said.

“I don’t believe a fight like that, just the way it played out, is really good for MMA especially because it’s Netflix and such an incredible global audience…that is going to sample, depending on what comes up on the front page, to go to that fight and think that’s what MMA is, I don’t believe is good for the sport long term. “We saw it that way and decided to pass on it,” while adding he didn’t want to take anything away from Rousey, her win, or the viewers the broadcast got.

There wasn’t much in the way of WWE news coming out of the 30-minute conversation other than Shapiro putting over ESPN in how they are promoting PLEs and that they are looking forward to when YouTubeTV finishes their authentication process with ESPN Unlimited. That was reported as hopefully being completed in August or September.

He did say that “We’ve added some cards for NXT because we we think have a couple stars that are about to pop and we want to give them more stage time, if you will.” Based on last week’s announcement about WWE house shows returning this summer, it appears more than likely he meant young talent called up from NXT that need more in-ring work on the main roster, hence the house shows.

TKO remains bullish on the Middle East for events, saying their partners want more events and “want to show the world they are still open for business.”

He talked about how title fights on UFC numbered events make them distinct from Fight Nights, signaling to consumers that it’s “something different” and that Paramount’s ad spends reflect that as well. When it comes to the PPV era, he said, “We’re past that” and want to be accessible to the broadest audience possible.

They are continuing to plan for UFC Freedom 250 and how it will be a big week for them with corporate partners and such. Attendance is going to be at 4000 people: 2900 White House and TKO guests and 1100 military members and their families. He did point out that U.S. president Donald Trump is a WWE Hall of Famer.

Overall, they are looking to get to $400 million in TKO site fees (what they call financial incentive packages”) due to a “pretty clear-cut strategy” in that they have premium content that is in demand and that “there needs to be government and private financial incentives that reflect the economic and cultural impact we bring to these cities and regions.”

WOL: You’re wrong about Rousey vs. Carano & I was wrong about Darby Allin

Posted on by Josh Nason

For the first time in nearly three months, Josh Nason has returned to the microphone for the Sunday Wrestling Observer Live, filling in for Andrew Zarian.

And what a fitting time to fill in as Josh returned to his MMA writing & talking roots following Saturday’s inaugural (?) MMA show on Netflix featuring Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano after a combined 27 years of inactivity.

Josh debunks some of the bad faith narratives that emerged after the show and gave his thoughts on the highs and lows.

He then delves into the latest with AEW including the Double or Nothing card a week away from the show, this Wednesday’s killer card for the combo Dynamite/Collision show in his old hometown, and why he admits he was wrong about the Darby Allin AEW World title run.

All that and a bit more awaits at no charge.

You can listen (no sub needed) on our site, Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Ronda Rousey scores fast finish over Gina Carano in MMA return

Posted on by Josh Nason

With a combined 27 years of MMA inactivity, former UFC crossover star and champion Ronda Rousey and former Strikeforce champion/actor Gina Carano turned back time for the first ever MMA card on Netflix Saturday.

And on a main card full of quick finishes, the main event was the quickest with Rousey defeating Carano in just 17 seconds after hitting a double leg takedown and then transitioning to her signature armbar for the quick tap.

It was the third fastest finish of Rousey’s pro career (14 seconds vs. Cat Zingano, 16 seconds over Alexis Davis).

Before any bonuses or other arrangements, Rousey earned $2.2 million while Carano earned $1.05 million per the California State Athletic Commission.

Afterward, Rousey continued to put over Carano strongly for influencing her but still has no interest in returning to fight again as she wants to have more kids. Carano said she felt good and wanted the fight to go longer. She didn’t close the door on a potential return, joking she should have been matched up with a striker.

The event took place at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles with the visually sparse attendance a subject on social media throughout the night, something that some attributed to the lights in the seats.

For an in-depth report on the entire card, please read Paul Fontaine’s full recap.

Rousey vs. Carano main card results & notes

  • In the co-main event, Mike Perry defeated Nate Diaz by second round TKO when Diaz’s corner, led by legendary cutman Jacob “Stitch” Duran, called it off between rounds due to several big cuts on Diaz’s head that saw him bleed profusely as the fight went on.
  • Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou made quick work on a main card full of quick fights, dispatching Philipe Lins by first round knockout. He was asked about fighting Jon Jones someday as Jones was in attendance and both he and Jones seemed to admit that will likely never happen. A fight with Jake Paul was teased, but Ngannou didn’t seem super interested in it. The Conor McGregor/Max Holloway UFC fight was announced as Ngannou was heading to the cage.
  • Salahdine Parnasse defeated Kenneth Cross by first round TKO in a great performance for Parnasse.
  • Robelis Despaigne defeated former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos via first round knockout to open up the main card.

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano on Netflix live results: Two legends return to the MMA cage

Posted on by Paul Fontaine

For the first time ever, Netflix will hold an MMA event as they continue their relationship with Jake Paul’s MVP promotion.

The headliner features former UFC bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey returning to action for the first time in nearly a decade against former Strikeforce lightweight champion Gina Carano, fighting for the first time in 17 years. It will likely be the final bout for both women.

The co-main event will see former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou battle former UFC fighter Philipe Lins.

In a high-profile fight between two fan favorites, Nate Diaz returns to the MMA cage against Mike Perry who transitioned from MMA to bare knuckle fighting to raise his profile.

The rest of the main card features Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross at lightweight and former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos against Robelis Despaigne.

Our live coverage kicks off with the main card at 9 pm Eastern.

**********

Former UFC Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley is on the analyst desk along with Ariel Helwani. Cain Velasquez is interviewed cageside before the first fight featuring his long time rival Junior Dos Santos and he doesn’t think it will go long. 

Mauro Ranallo and Kenny Florian are the play by play team for this card. 

Junior Dos Santos (21-10) vs Robelis Despaigne (5-2) – Heavyweights

JDS out to “Gonna Fly Now” from Rocky. Gets a nice response from the late arriving crowd. JDS comes in on a 5 fight losing streak, having lost won in 2019. Despaigne lost his last two UFC fights before being cut in 2024 and this is his first fight back. Frank Trigg is the referee. 

Despaigne rocks JDS with his first few shots. JDS makes an impact with a hard leg kick. JDS drops him with a leg kick. Despaigne lands a nice punch combo to the head and follows up with an uppercut. Great punch combo and a head kick by Despaigne and JDS is reeling. He’s busted open and bleeding from the mouth. Despaigne knocks him out cold with a beautiful combo. 

Winner – Robelis Despaigne (6-2) by KO at 2:59

Ariel Helwani interviews Despaigne after the fight. Asks if he will stay in MMA now after leaving in 2024 or go back to karate. Calls out Francis N’Gannou but says he’d like to do both. He also wants a bonus for the knockout and Ariel tells him to talk to “Jake” (Paul). 

Salahdine Parnasse (22-2) vs Kenneth Cross (17-4) – Lightweights

Cross is training partners with Gina Carano, who fights later tonight in the main event. Parnasse is a 2 division champion of KSW in Poland and comes in on a 4 fight win streak. Cross has also won 4 straight but lost his only fight for a major promotion, in Bellator, in 2023. Jason Herzog is the official for this fight. 

Parnasse immediately catches a kick and takes Cross down but he gets right up. They fight for control on the cage before Parnasse takes him down again. Cross up fairly easily. Both guys landing wild strikes after they separate. Cross stuffed on a takedown attempt. Parnasse takes him down again and lands some ground and pound. Takes the back and working for a rear naked choke. Parnasse flattens him out with punches. Cross is turtling and the ref warns him to fight back. Cross to his feet but still eating a lot of punches. Parnasse mixing in strikes to the head and body and Cross goes down clutching his liver and the ref stops it. 

WInner – Salahdine Parnasse (23-2) by TKO at 4:18

That was the first knockout loss of Cross’ career. Parnasse interviewed after the fight and talks in both English and French. Says he’d be willing to box or fight MMA and just wants another fight in this company. Was asked if he felt pressure for this fight and he said he didn’t because he feels he’s the best fighter in the world. Is asked who he’d like to fight next and says “anyone, anytime”. Then says Diaz or Perry. 

One of the promoters was interviewed by Helwani. Says he’s pleased with the show so far. Will not commit to doing another show. Asked if he’ll try to convince Ronda to fight again and he says she’ll always have a place with MVP either as a fighter or promoter. 

Francis Ngannou (18-3) vs Philipe Lins (18-5) – Heavyweights

Lins comes in on a 4 fight win streak in UFC, but hasn’t fought since March 2024. Ngannou is being billed as the linneal heavyweight champion, having left UFC as champion in a contract dispute. He is on a 6 fight win streak in MMA. Herb Dean is the referee. 

Ngannou throwing a lot of kicks early. Lins with a takedown attempt and Ngannou takes his neck. Gives the choke up quickly. Both guys having good success with leg kciks. Ngannou sprawls out of a takedown attempt and gets Lins on his back. Lands some ground and pound before Lins ties him up. Lins up but Ngannou stalking him with punches. Lins lands a nice hope shot. Ngannou up 22-3 in strikes landed 3 minutes in. Seems to be tiring already. Ngannou starting to work the body in the clinch. They separate with 45 seconds left. Ngannou knocks him out cold. 

Winner – Francis Ngannou (19-3) by KO at 4:31

Ariel interview Ngannou after the fight. Says he respects Lins, who was tougher than he thought. Says this was a reminder of just who he is. Says he wasn’t worried about cage rust. It’s an instinct that’s always in him. Ariel asks about Robelis Despaigne. Said he had a good knockout. They are both in the running for performance of the night and they are on a collision course. Jon Jones was watching and Ariel points him out at the analyst desk. Says Joes is a great fighter but he has something to learn about business. Said this fight needs to happen before they retire. But it has to be here. Said that Jake Paul is just a blah blah guy and he doesn’t respect him. He’s glad he found someone to run the business side. Says Jones is tied up but Paul isn’t and if he wants him next. Says if he’s grown up, then maybe. Asks Jake about it. Crowd gives him the loudest boos of the night. Says he’ll fight him. They’re here to get fighters paid more and to get them watched more than people in the UFC. Says he’ll box him, doesn’t seem to want to fight him. Ngannou closes saying he’s the best heavyweight in the world, period while Jon Jones smiles from the desk. 

Woodley and Jones talk on the desk. Jones says he’s trying to get out of his UFC contract. Wants to fight Francis and since Dana won’t make the fight it’s got to happen here. Jones says Francis fought a light heavyweight tonight but he looked good. Woodley says that he should get Netflix to pick up the legal tab to get him out of his UFC contract. Jones is asked about the main event. Says that Ronda is the main reason he’s here. He’s close friends with her and think she’ll do amazing tonight. Also says that Gina is the reason Rousey was able to do what she did and puts her over as the most important woman in the history of MMA. Jones closes by saying he’s officially retired. He’s asked about Ronda and Gina coming back after being retired and he says “well they don’t have arthritis and I do”. 

Mike Perry (14-8) vs Nate Diaz (21-13) – Welterweights 

Perry is fighting MMA for the first time since 2021 where he lost his last two fights in UFC. He last won over Mickey Gall in June 2020. Diaz won his last UFC fight in September 2022 over Tony Ferguson and has gone 1-1 in boxing matches since then. He gets the loudest pop of the night so far for his walkout. Mike Beltran is the ref.

Perry all over Diaz early. Diaz trying to clinch up. Diaz takes him down but Perry takes top position. Perry landing ground and pound. Diaz working a sub from his back. He’s got Perry’s legs all tied up. Loud DIAZ chants from the crowd. Perry gets up and forces Nate to follow. Perry starting to work the body. both guys looking tired. Perry lands a knee to the body and Diaz seems to be in real trouble. Diaz covering up his body which opens up the head.  Diaz starting to fight back with 2 minutes left. Diaz is busted open with a cut over his right eye. Diaz firing back with hard jabs. Perry cut open now beside his nose. More DIAZ chants. Diaz takes the back standing but Perry quickly takes control> Elbows to the head to close the round. 10-9 Perry

Mauro brings up that Diaz would like a rubber match with Conor McGregor which is interesting since his return fight for UFC was just announced for July 11. Perry looking really good early in the 2nd, landing a lot of punches standing. Perry mixing in elbows to the head and punches to the body. Diaz still firing back. Perry is definitely looking most tired although Diaz’ face is covered with blood. Perry takes his back standing. Tries for a choke and that allows Diaz to escape. The blood is dripping into Diaz’ eyes, which is bothering him. Perry throws Diaz to the matt and then follows up with punches to the head. Diaz throws up an armbar but Perry escapes easily. Perry backs off, forcing Diaz up. He gets up very slowly. He’s now bleeding from the back of his head as well. The blood is really getting bad and this could be stopped after the round. Diaz needs the cage to hold him up at points. Perry continuing to stalk him. Perry drops him to close the round. 10-8 Perry but this could be over. 

The fight is indeed stopped between rounds. 

Winner – Mike Perry (15-8) via corner stoppage at 5:00 of Round 2

Ariel Helwani interviews Mike Perry. Says he got tired from hitting Diaz so much. Puts him over as being tough and has no quit in him. Says they did their job. Crowd cheered Diaz and booed him. He’s thankful for the opportunity given by Netflix and MVP. Ariel asks him if he’s disappointed for not winning emphatically, which was kind of a dumb question and Perry says it was emphatic. Couldn’t have been more definitive than that. He calls out Conor McGregor and the fans cheer that. He asks for an MMA fight with Jake Paul and Jake is up for that. Paul beat him in a boxing match. Says cardio wasn’t an issue tonight because he didn’t get to the championship rounds. He’s asked if he’ll stick with MMA now. Says he’s an all around fighter and great in the clinch so seems up to another fight. 

He talks to Diaz as well. Congratulates him on a valiant effort. Says Perry did everything he was expecting. Broke his finger two minutes in. Says he’ll come back and get Perry and even says he’ll take out Paul and Helwani. He congratulates Perry on a good fight and says the stoppage was warranted. Perry seems up for another fight. 

CM Punk was interviewed at cageside. He’s picking Ronda Rousey to win by armbar. Celebrities shown at ringside include James Cameron, David Spade, Tommy Lee and Michael Irvin. 

Main Event – Gina Carano (7-1) vs Ronda Rousey (12-2) – Featherweights

Rousey out to “Bad Reputation” and gets a mixed reaction from the crowd. This is Gina’s first fight since losing to Cris Cyborg in Strikeforce in August 2009. Ronda is fighting for the first time since December 2016, having lost her last two UFC fights. Big John McCarthy is the referee. 

Ronda takes her down immediately. Gina with a guillotine attempt. Ronda with an armbar and it’s over. 

Winner – Ronda Rousey 13-2) via armbar submission in 17 seconds

Ariel interviews both ladies in the cage. Compares it to Cat Zingano in this same city. Ronda says Gina brought her in and is the only person who could’ve brought her back. She’s in tears. “You changed my world and we changed the world”. Ronda thanks MVP and Netflix and says the fans in the building and at home give this show value. They’re here to fight for the fans. She says she was hoping it would go like it did. She didn’t want to hurt Gina. Ariel asks if she wanted more time and Ronda says “hell no!”. Thanks her family and coaches and training partners for getting her here. Says that Gina is her hero and thanked her for bringing her home. Ariel asks if we could see more of Ronda in a cage. Ronda says this was the perfect ending and she wants to go have babies now. 

Gina says she wanted it to last longer. She’s never felt that good in the cage. Says that just getting back in the cage was a victory. She is disappointed because she wanted a fight and didn’t really get it. Says she lost 100 lbs and probably added years to her life because of it. Ariel asks if she wants to keep doing this. Being away 17 years and being 44 years old is a lot. She’ll talk about it with her family. Says you never know. Maybe she should’ve matched up against a striker.

Jake Paul says we will definitely see more MVP MMA. Says they’re taking over MMA and Dana White better be prepared. 

 

Ronda Rousey ‘won’t hesitate’ to break Gina Carano’s arm in MMA superfight

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano is set to take place this weekend from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. During the last press conference for the first ever MVP MMA event, Rousey admitted that she would be hesitant when it came to breaking the arm of her opponent Carano during the fight, despite the mutual respect the two appear to have for each other.

“I definitely wouldn’t have any hesitation in breaking it” Rousey replied when asked if she would be hesitant to break her opponent’s arm during the fight. “But I also wouldn’t hesitate in putting it back in place, it’s kind of a wax on wax off kind of situation. You know, you don’t really break it, you just kind of dislocate it” Rousey added.

“It’s not that bad, I’ve had my elbow go out several times because I didn’t tap and I thought I was really cool when I was young and I wouldn’t pay for it when I was older. But yeah, I wouldn’t hesitate and I would make sure to put it back” Rousey finished.

Ronda Rousey Armbar

Rousey averaged 4.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, the highest figure in women’s bantamweight history (via UFCStats). Her average fight time across 12 pro bouts is 3 minutes and 5 seconds. Eleven of her 12 wins are finishes, most by armbar. It’s very likely that ‘Rowdy’ will try to use her standard template of close the distance, tie up in the clinch, throw with a hip toss, take side control and isolate the arm in this fight.

Ronda Rousey claims purse vs Gina Carano will be ‘smashing the record’ for women’s MMA

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Ronda Rousey will be facing Gina Carano this weekend in the main event of MVP’s first ever MMA card on Netflix. While the dream fight between arguably the two biggest names in Women’s MMA history is coming a few years too late, it’s still going to be a massive moment in the sport and both women will be reportedly be getting paid handsomely for their work.

Speaking to talkSPORT in the UK, Rousey noted that she and Carano are going to break the record for Women’s pay in an MMA fight: “The biggest money fight is the biggest fight period. And we [Kayla Harrison] honestly have very different definitions of greatness. Mine is making history, making a cultural impact and influencing the future of the sport. I’ve already won a record eight consecutive title fights, there’s nothing left for me to do in UFC. So now me and Gina are smashing the record for the most women have been paid in combat sports.”

The actual number that both women are being paid for the fight has not been confirmed publicly, but it was revealed that the minimum any fighter on the card would be getting is $40,000, even in a loss. It’s worth noting that Rousey’s last reported purse in the UFC was $3m, so there’s a good chance this number will eclipse that should her claim be legitimate.

Rousey vs Carano Card

Here is how the fight card stacks up as of writing:

Rousey vs Carano MVP MMA 1 MAIN CARD (9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Netflix)

  • Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
  • Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
  • Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
  • Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
  • Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne

Rousey vs Carano MVP MMA 1 PRELIMS (6 p.m. ET/ 3 p.m. PT on Tudum and MVP YouTube)

  • Namo Fazil vs. Jake Bobian
  • Adriano Moraes vs. Phumi Nkuta
  • Jason Jackson vs. Jefferson Creighton
  • David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales
  • Aline Pereira vs. Jade Masson-Wong
  • Chris Avila vs. Brandon Jenkins

Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano Fight Preview and Breakdown

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Two of the most consequential women in MMA history finally meet, the only problem is its 17 years too late. Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano headlines the first Most Valuable Promotions MMA card on Saturday, May 16 at the Intuit Dome, contesting a 145lb bout over five five-minute rounds on Netflix.

Rousey vs Carano – Tale of the tape

StatRouseyCarano
Age3944
Height5’7″5’8″
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Record12-27-1
Finish rate92% (11/12 wins)57% (4/7 wins)
Avg. fight time3m 05sMulti-round average
Last fightDec 30, 2016Aug 15, 2009
Layoff~9.5 years~16.5 years
BackgroundOlympic judo (2008 bronze)Muay Thai

Rousey vs Carano – Striking breakdown

Carano is the better technical striker on paper, and her career numbers back that up. She averages 4.50 significant strikes landed per minute against Rousey’s 4.17 (via UFCStats), absorbs at a rate of 2.66 against Rousey’s 4.14, and her listed strike defense is 64% to Rousey’s 44%. She hits more, gets hit less, and has the cleaner Muay Thai pedigree (via UFCStats).

Striking statRouseyCarano
Sig. strikes landed per minute4.174.50
Sig. strike accuracy52%47%
Sig. strikes absorbed per minute4.142.66
Sig. strike defense44%64%
Career KO/TKO wins33

It’s worth noting here though that Carano’s stats are 17 years old and built against EliteXC-tier opposition. Rousey’s boxing was always a liability, we saw her chin give out under both Holm and Nunes, but her numbers are inflated by short fights where she managed to dictate the terms. Neither fighter has the modern footwork or kicking arsenal you’d expect from a 2026 featherweight fighter, but that’s not so much of an issue when they’re facing each other rather than current competition.

Rousey vs Carano – Grappling breakdown

Rousey averages 6.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at 68% accuracy and 4.8 submission attempts per 15, which is still the highest figure in WMMA history despite Rousey having not fought since 2016. Nine of her 12 career wins come by submission, mostly armbars. Carano lands 1.24 takedowns per 15 and has exactly one career submission win (a rear-naked choke from 2007).

Grappling statRouseyCarano
Takedowns per 15 min6.261.24
Takedown accuracy68%66%
Takedown defense50%85% (small sample)
Submission attempts per 154.81.6
Career submission wins91

It’s again worth noting here that Carano’s 85% takedown defense was built against fighters who weren’t 2008 Olympic medalists, so you can throw that out of the window against a judoka of Rousey’s caliber.

The intangibles

  • Layoff – Carano’s 16-year absence is the longest of any fighter in a 2026 main event by some distance, and rust always shows up first when it comes to timing and footwork in the cage, which is the one thing she can’t afford to lose.
  • Age – Carano is 44, Rousey is 39.
  • Weight class – Rousey is moving up 10 lbs to Carano’s natural division, which strips the speed advantage that carried most of her UFC run.

How the fight likely unfolds

Rousey’s only sensible path is to close the distance, eat one or two strikes on the way in, secure the clinch, and convert to a hip toss inside 60 seconds.

Carano’s only sensible path is to keep her hips back, jab the range, and throw her right hand the moment Rousey ducks. If the fight reaches round two, then I think the stylistic edge tilts hard to Carano, she’s the more rounded striker and Rousey’s gas tank after nine years off is the biggest unknown on the card. The whole question is whether Rousey can get her hands on Carano before Carano can land flush. My prediction though is that she can and likely finishes the fight inside the first round.

Rousey vs Carano Odds on Fight Week

Posted on by Jake Skudder

The market is in near-total agreement for MVP’s first MMA event: Ronda Rousey wins, probably in round one, probably by submission, and the only real variable is by how much. The variance between books is so narrow it tells you the market has almost no uncertainty about the result.

Rousey’s price ranges from 1/7 (shortest quote on the board) to 2/11 (the majority position), translating to an implied win probability of roughly 85-88%. Carano sits at 4/1 with most books (drifting out to 421/100 on one major one in the UK), an implied probability of 19-22% before the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out.

Win market across 24 bookmakers

OutcomeBest priceMost commonImplied probability
Ronda Rousey1/72/1185-88%
Gina Carano421/100 (exchange)4/119-22%

Round odds tell the real story

The where-and-when market is more revealing than the straight winner. Books have priced Round 1 as the favorite by a long way, with Rousey-by-Round-1 alone implying a 47.6% chance she finishes the fight inside the first five minutes.

OutcomeOddsImplied probability
Rousey by Round 111/1047.6%
Rousey by Round 224/517.2%
Rousey by Round 311/18.3%
Rousey by Round 420/14.8%
Rousey by Round 535/12.8%
Rousey by decision14/16.7%
Carano by Round 112/17.7%
Carano by Round 219/15.0%
Carano by Round 328/13.4%
Carano by Round 445/12.2%
Carano by Round 566/11.5%
Carano by decision25/13.8%
Draw100/11.0%

Combine the two Round 1 outcomes and the market is signaling roughly a 55% chance the fight ends inside the opening five minutes, by either fighter. That’s an extraordinary number for a 145lb bout and reflects the punching power of Carano, the finishing rate of Rousey, and a shared profile of two fighters with no recent gas tank to fall back on.

Round group market

OutcomeOddsImplied probability
Rousey wins Round 1-33/1076.9%
Carano wins Round 1-35/116.7%
Rousey wins Round 4-decision7/112.5%
Carano wins Round 4-decision13/17.1%

The 3/10 quote on Rousey finishing inside three rounds is the strongest single number on the page. Books are saying there’s roughly a 77% chance she wraps this up before the ‘championship’ rounds, and only a 12.5% chance she’s still working past round three.

What the market consensus actually means

Three statistical signals stand out. First, there’s no divergence on the winner, Rousey’s price has barely moved in fight week, and no book is trying to attract action by stretching her price. Second, the decision market is effectively dead: the combined “fight goes the distance” implied probability across both fighters is only around 10.5%. Third, Carano’s path to victory is priced almost entirely as a Round 1 puncher’s chance. Past the first horn her implied probability collapses below 5% per round, which is the bookmakers’ way of saying she lands early, or she doesn’t land at all.

Rousey vs Carano Predictions: MVP MMA 1 Main Event

Posted on by Jake Skudder

I think Ronda Rousey wins this, but it all depends on cage rust and where she is mentally. The market has her at -650 across major books, and I’d say that’s about right…maybe even a tad too low. My pick is Rousey winning by first-round armbar inside 90 seconds, but I’m not THAT confident.

Rousey averaged 4.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, the highest figure in women’s bantamweight history (via UFCStats). Her average fight time across 12 pro bouts is 3 minutes and 5 seconds. Eleven of her 12 wins are finishes, most by armbar. Carano has never been submitted in a pro MMA bout, but her last pro fight was way back in 2009, so I think that record potentially gets busted this weekend if Rousey comes in like the fighter she was in her prime (which isn’t a guarantee at all).

Rousey vs Carano Career stats compared

StatRouseyCarano
Record12-27-1
Wins by submission91
Wins by KO/TKO33
Wins by decision03
Sig. strikes landed/min4.174.50
Sig. strike accuracy52%47%
Sig. strikes absorbed/min4.142.66
Sig. strike defense44%64%
Takedown avg / 15 min6.261.24
Takedown accuracy68%66%
Takedown defense50%85%
Sub. attempts / 15 min4.81.6
Last fightDec 30, 2016 (KO loss, Nunes, R1 0:48)Aug 15, 2009 (TKO loss, Cyborg, R1 4:59)
Age at fight night3944
Height5’7″5’8″
Layoff~9.5 years~16.5 years

How Ronda Rousey wins this

Rousey closes the distance, ties up in the clinch, throws Carano with a hip toss or harai goshi, takes side control and isolates the arm. That’s been her template since 2011, and nothing on Carano’s resume suggests she is going to be able to stop it here.

Carano’s takedown defense was never tested against a truly elite level grappler (Cyborg didn’t need to wrestle her). Against an Olympic-level judoka who’s been drilling armbars for 20 years, a 16-year layoff isn’t going to do her any favors.

How Gina Carano wins this

The case for Carano, and there is a slight one, rests on Rousey’s chin and where she is mentally. Two of her last three fights ended with her unconscious: Holly Holm head-kicked her in 59 seconds of round two and Amanda Nunes obliterated her in 48 seconds. Carano hits hard, is naturally bigger at 145, and only needs one clean right hand to rock Rousey, so there’s a chance it happens.

My prediction

As I’ve already said, I can see Rousey by armbar, round one, inside 90 seconds. If Carano is able to survive the opening five minutes, the whole shape of the fight changes. Rousey’s gas tank after nine years out is the real unknown here, and Carano’s striking volume could start to work in her favor if Rousey starts to slow down. Having said that, if Rousey is where she needs to be from a confidence standpoint…I don’t see this fight reaching round two.

The honest weakness in my pick here is cage rust and the weight of the event on both fighters. Both women are deep into their layoffs, and timing under cage lights is always the first thing to go. If Rousey’s grip slips on that first armbar attempt, then it affects her confidence and the mental game starts to work against her.

Rousey vs Carano Start Times: US, UK, Australia and more

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano headlines the first MMA card ever broadcast on Netflix, and the main card starts at 9 PM ET / 6 PM PT on Saturday, May 16, 2026 from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. Main event ring walks land around 11 PM ET / 8 PM PT, roughly 4 AM Sunday in the UK and 1 PM Sunday on Australia’s east coast, and Prelims kick off three hours earlier.

The broadcast opens with five prelim fights at 6 PM ET. The main card, including Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry and Francis Ngannou vs Philipe Lins, begins at 9 PM ET.

Rousey vs Carano Global start times

RegionTimezonePrelimsMain cardRousey vs Carano (est.)
US East CoastEDT (UTC−4)6 PM Sat9 PM Sat11 PM Sat
US CentralCDT (UTC−5)5 PM Sat8 PM Sat10 PM Sat
US MountainMDT (UTC−6)4 PM Sat7 PM Sat9 PM Sat
US PacificPDT (UTC−7)3 PM Sat6 PM Sat8 PM Sat
AlaskaAKDT (UTC−8)2 PM Sat5 PM Sat7 PM Sat
HawaiiHST (UTC−10)12 PM Sat3 PM Sat5 PM Sat
Mexico CityCST (UTC−6)4 PM Sat7 PM Sat9 PM Sat
BrazilBRT (UTC−3)7 PM Sat10 PM Sat12 AM Sun
ArgentinaART (UTC−3)7 PM Sat10 PM Sat12 AM Sun
UKBST (UTC+1)11 PM Sat2 AM Sun4 AM Sun
IrelandIST (UTC+1)11 PM Sat2 AM Sun4 AM Sun
PortugalWEST (UTC+1)11 PM Sat2 AM Sun4 AM Sun
NigeriaWAT (UTC+1)11 PM Sat2 AM Sun4 AM Sun
Central EuropeCEST (UTC+2)12 AM Sun3 AM Sun5 AM Sun
South AfricaSAST (UTC+2)12 AM Sun3 AM Sun5 AM Sun
Greece/TurkeyEEST (UTC+3)1 AM Sun4 AM Sun6 AM Sun
Saudi ArabiaAST (UTC+3)1 AM Sun4 AM Sun6 AM Sun
UAEGST (UTC+4)2 AM Sun5 AM Sun7 AM Sun
PakistanPKT (UTC+5)3 AM Sun6 AM Sun8 AM Sun
IndiaIST (UTC+5:30)3:30 AM Sun6:30 AM Sun8:30 AM Sun
ThailandICT (UTC+7)5 AM Sun8 AM Sun10 AM Sun
Singapore/Hong KongSGT/HKT (UTC+8)6 AM Sun9 AM Sun11 AM Sun
ChinaCST (UTC+8)6 AM Sun9 AM Sun11 AM Sun
Japan/South KoreaJST/KST (UTC+9)7 AM Sun10 AM Sun12 PM Sun
PerthAWST (UTC+8)6 AM Sun9 AM Sun11 AM Sun
Adelaide/DarwinACST (UTC+9:30)7:30 AM Sun10:30 AM Sun12:30 PM Sun
Sydney/Melbourne/BrisbaneAEST (UTC+10)8 AM Sun11 AM Sun1 PM Sun
New ZealandNZST (UTC+12)10 AM Sun1 PM Sun3 PM Sun

When to actually tune in

If you only care about the main event, the realistic window is around 11 PM ET / 4 AM BST / 1 PM AEST. Build in a thirty-minute buffer either side. Undercards run long, and Most Valuable Promotions hasn’t staged a full MMA event before, so cage walks easily could drift later than expected.

Ronda Rousey talks potential UFC return and if Gina Carano fight will be her last

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Ronda Rousey has confirmed that her fight against Gina Carano this weekend will very likely be her last. Appearing on The Ariel Helwani Show to promote the Netflix fight for MVP, Rousey admitted that this was it for her and she would not be returning to the UFC or any other promotion to fight again.

Rousey has not been in competitive MMA for some time, with her last UFC appearances being her losses to Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

There is currently no indication that Rousey will be returning to pro wrestling either, with her mentioning during the interview with Helwani that she wants to start having more children with her husband Travis Browne as soon as possible, ruling her out of any combat sports or wrestling in the near future.

Ronda Rousey on potential UFC Return

“To the UFC, to fight? No. I promised my husband that this is the last one. He is the one that I have to convince to get on board with this promoter shit after. He’s not going for the fighting at all after this. Honestly, I want to get started having babies again right away. I want to have at least two more, if I can. I can’t be taking detours anymore. This is the peak. I can’t go higher than this. This is the dream fight and the absolute pinnacle for me. This is the perfect way to end it.

Credit to MMANews for the transcription

Rousey recently appeared in AEW alongside her long time friend Marina Shafir, although that was a one-off appearance to help promote this upcoming Netflix broadcast rather than a match in All Elite Wrestling.

FAQ and context

Is this really Ronda Rousey’s last fight?

By her own words, yes. Rousey told Ariel Helwani plainly: “I promised my husband that this is the last one.” She also called the Carano bout “the peak” and “the absolute pinnacle.” Combat sports retirements have a habit of getting unretired, but everything Rousey said on the show pointed to a hard stop.

How long has Rousey been out of MMA?

Her last sanctioned MMA bout was the Amanda Nunes loss at UFC 207 on 30 December 2016. The Carano fight is her first combat sports appearance since, and, if she’s to be believed, her last.

Where is the Rousey vs Carano fight being shown?

On Netflix, as part of the streamer’s ongoing push into live combat sports.

Rousey vs Carano Card: Francis Ngannou featuring for Jake Paul’s MVP

Posted on by Jake Skudder

Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano is set to take place this weekend as part of Jake Paul’s MVP MMA debut event.

Here is how the fight card stacks up as of writing:

Rousey vs Carano MVP MMA 1 MAIN CARD (9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Netflix)

  • Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
  • Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
  • Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
  • Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
  • Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne

Rousey vs Carano MVP MMA 1 PRELIMS (6 p.m. ET/ 3 p.m. PT on Tudum and MVP YouTube)

  • Namo Fazil vs. Jake Bobian
  • Adriano Moraes vs. Phumi Nkuta
  • Jason Jackson vs. Jefferson Creighton
  • David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales
  • Aline Pereira vs. Jade Masson-Wong
  • Chris Avila vs. Brandon Jenkins

Real Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Netflix MMA undercard announced

Posted on by Josh Nason

After a fake card made its way around X on Monday, the actual full lineup for this May’s Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano MMA event on Netflix has been announced.

Jake Paul’s MVP promotion made the reveal Tuesday morning on social media.

While it’s devoid of the name value of the fake card, the show will feature former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos returning to MMA to take on Robelis Despaigne. It’s Dos Santos’ first MMA fight since losing to Cyril Gane at UFC 256 in December 2020. He’s lost his last four fights.

Other notable fighters include former UFC, Strikeforce and Bellator fighter Lorenz Larkin against Bellator and PFL veteran Jason Jackson.

The event for the Inuit Dome in Los Angeles is headlined by the returns of both Rousey and Carano for what is expected to be their final ever MMA fights.

Full Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano MMA fight card | Los Angeles | Saturday, May 16

  • Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
  • Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
  • Mike Perry vs. Nate Diaz
  • Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne
  • Muhammad Mokaev vs. Adriano Moraes
  • Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
  • Lorenz Larkin vs. Jason Jackson
  • Aline Pereira vs. Jade Masson-Wong
  • David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales
  • Namo Fazil vs. Jake Babian
  • Chris Avila vs. TBD

Marina Shafir confirms appearance for Ronda Rousey’s MMA return

Posted on by Shounak Chakrabarti

Marina Shafir is set to be present and support her friend Ronda Rousey during her upcoming MMA return fight.

On May 16th, Rousey is scheduled to make her comeback fight against Gina Carano at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California, under the banner of Jake Paul’s MVP (Most Valuable Promotions). With the fight set to air on Netflix, AEW’s Shafir recently confirmed her appearance for the show.

Speaking on Busted Open, Rousey’s longtime MMA and wrestling friend, Shafir, expressed her excitement before confirming her appearance (H/t Fightful).

“Oh my God, I’m so excited for her. This is visceral for her. In a non-gay way, I have gotten really hard nipples for her. I’m just very excited for her because she has — you guys just have no f*****g idea what people go through, and for her to be doing the thing that she loves, so wholeheartedly and so passionately, I’m just so excited. I’m really f*****g excited to see what happens, what’s to come. I’m really excited to be there actually, too so,” Shafir claimed.

After finishing up with WWE in 2023, Rousey enjoyed a brief stint in the indies and ROH (Ring of Honor), where she teamed up with Marina Shafir to win a couple of matches. Apart from their tag-team run, their history dates back to their initial MMA days.