Tag: Scoring

Daily Update: UFC 276, scoring, Google trends

Posted on by Dave Meltzer

Daily Update

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This Week’s Wrestling Observer Newsletter:

  • Among the highlights:
  • Match and performer of the week
  • A look at Forbidden Door
  • The most detailed business notes and poll results on the show
  • The unique ticket selling aspect
  • How injuries plagued the show
  • Plans that changed not due to injury
  • AEW injury rate
  • What we’ve learned about AEW, PPV and what can draw that people thought couldn’t from this show
  • Why people both did and didn’t buy the show
  • Who bought this and Double or Nothing, and who bought this that didn’t buy Double or Nothing
  • The ball being dropped on the follow-up
  • How much money the show took in
  • Where the show ranked as far as biggest AEW shows
  • Complete rundown of every match
  • Abraham Riesman’s story on Vince McMahon and Rita Chatterton looked at from all aspects
  • Logan Paul signs with WWE, early SummerSlam notes, Money in the Bank notes and origin
  • Cain Velasquez sues the man he shot
  • Full UFC coverage from Saturday
  • Stardom Fight In The Top PPV coverage
  • The most detailed look at television ratings from last week
  • CMLL’s biggest star undergoes surgery
  • Notes on a lot of different tournaments
  • Most Outstanding Wrestlers of 2022
  • Next ROH PPV show
  • Kenny Omega talks a number of different subjects
  • International TV ratings
  • Streaming numbers from the past week
  • Ticket sales for upcoming shows
  • Francis Ngannou’s return
  • ESPY awards for wrestling and MMA
  • This week’s UFC how preview
  • Huge upset leads to Bellator title change
  • The story behind Chris Jericho, Bryan Danielson and Paul Wight being on Raw
  • Story on a new WWE signing that got a lot of publicity this past week and what they are looking for
  • WWE, AEW and NJPW injury updates
  • Different booking ideas that have been talked about
  • WWE star whose contract is expiring and has yet to sign a new deal
  • Gina Carano talks doing a fight with Ronda Rousey
  • A look at all the WWE live events over the past week

This Week’s Retro Observer Newsletter:

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Sunday News Update

  • For our shows this past weekend, we have a show Garrett and I did with Brian Solomon, whose great biography of The Sheik is out. We talked The Sheik, as well as talked Vince McMahon, who he worked for as part of the magazine and writing team. We also talked to Greg Oliver about his Sports Illustrated story on Rocky Johnson’s multiple children before Dwayne who in recent years, thanks to DNA testing and Ricky Johnson, found each other. We talk a lot about Rocky Johnson the wrestler and the person. Last night Bryan, myself and Ryan Frederick talked Money in the Bank and UFC, along with the other weekend shows.
  • No controversial decisions as a rarity last night with both UFC title bouts being very one-sided in favor of champions Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya. It certainly appeared Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is coming,which would be the first guy Adesanya has faced who can match him as a standup fighter.
  • For Google searches last night, the UFC show had 2.3 million and Money in the Bank had 200,000, about what one would expect for both. Sean O’Malley actually beat out the entire MITB show in yesterday’s rankings. O’Malley and Donald Cerrone cracked the top 10 from last night (the main eventers are figured into the total and not broken out separately). Aside from that, nothing from pro wrestling, pro boxing or MMA cracked the top 20 this past week.
  • The UFC show on ABC last night only did 0.15 in 18-49 on the fast nationals. Keep in mind the audience was split between ABC, ESPN and ESPN+ but that is not a good prime time number.
  • There were three pro wrestler generated ring entrances at last night’s show. I believe Jessica Eye came out to Shawn Michaels’ music, but somebody on the undercard did. Jim Miller came out to the Road Warriors theme and Israel Adesanya came out to Undertaker’s theme complete with a hat and urn. 
  • We’re looking for reports from the WWE house show tonight in Tucson, PWG tonight in Los Angeles and RevPro’s show today to [email protected]
  • The WWE show is advertising Seth Rollins vs. Riddle, Bianca Belair vs. Liv Morgan vs Rhea Ripley (who at last word wasn’t cleared yet) vs. Becky Lynch and Drew McIntyre vs. Sami Zayn.
  • PWG tonight at the Globe Theater in Los Angeles
  • Shane Haste vs. Titus Alexander
  • Jonah vs. Kevin Blackwood
  • Masha Slamovich vs. Yuka Sakazaki (first PWG women’s match in a decade)
  • Jonathan Gresham vs. Davey Richards
  • Buddy Matthews vs. Mike Bailey
  • Malakai Black & Brody King defend the tag titles against Aussie Open
  • Daniel Garcia defends the PWG title against Konosuke Takeshita
  • Our weekend polls are for WWE Money in the Bank and UFC 276, yo u can leave a thumbs up, thumbs down or thumbs in the middle along with a best and worst match for each show to [email protected]
  • There were reports that Tony Khan and Jim Ross were at the UFC show in Las Vegas. That was incorrect. Apparently somebody put up on a photo of them from the 4/9 show in Jacksonville that they were at and it got circulated in a number of places. Vince McMahon, Stephanie McMahon, Paul Levesque, Pat McAfee (in a neck brace to sell the post-show attack from Happy Corbin) and Nick Khan were all sitting ringside for the last few matches after the WWE show ended. All but Khan were identified on television,
  • I have not seen this match yet, but will be watching it, but the match I’ve heard the most about being a must to see is Friday’s Impact match with Mike Bailey vs. Trey Miguel for the X title. I did see the Chris Sabin vs. Frankie Kazarian match on TV Thursday night and those guys were great. That was a G-1 main event caliber singles match.
  • PAC vs. Shota Umino for the AEW All Atlantic title takes place this coming Sunday in Sheffield, England. It will be the first defense of that title.
  • Announced for Raw tomorrow is Miz addressing Logan Paul saying he didn’t want to team with him. Plus Damian Priest & Finn Balor vs. Rey & Dominik Mysterio and the beginning of the hard build for SummerSlam.
  • The National Enquirer ran a piece on Vince McMahon this week. (thanks to Paul Kacprzak)
  • PFL ran Friday night with the last regular season women’s lightweight and men’s welterweight matches. For the women, going into the final four will be Larissa Pacheco, Kayla Harrison, Martina Jindrova and Olena Kolesnyk. In the final four playoffs Harrison will be going for her third $1 million check with a tournament win. Even though Rory MacDonald lost via unanimous decision to Sadibou Sy, he did make the final four with Sy, Carlos Leal and Magomed Umalatov.
  • The A&E WWE marathon started today at 1 p.m. Eastern and continues until 5 pm. tomorrow They will be airing the bio features on the likes of Mick Foley, Ultimate Warrior, Steve Austin, Randy Savage, Bret Hart and Roddy Piper.
  • Warrior Wrestling announced Tessa Blanchard for its 8/20 Stadium Series show in Chicago. Also announced is Athena vs. Kylie Rae and Rikishi.
  • A horse named Ring of Honor won the 7th race at Davenport in Australia on Sunday. (thanks to Barry Werner)
  • Lois Thomas, co-promoter for United Wrestling Coalition in South Jersey, which has done 22 annual Toys for Tots show each December (not counting 2020 due to COVID prohibitions) collecting at least 6,000 toys.and inspiring numerous East Coast indies to do the same, has major surgery scheduled. She has major surgery scheduled and a GoFundMe is being done for her.
  • Rich “Svengoolie” Koz on his 40 year tribute show included clips of Hulk Hogan, Honky Tonk Man and Roddy Piper. Koz is a longtime fan and reader.
  • ICW from last night in Maybee, NY: Shlak b Eric Ryan, Akira b Brandon Kirk, Satu Jinn b Neil Diamond Cutter, Tommy Vendetta b Bobby Beverly, Kasey Kirk b Dale Patricks, Krule b Carver, Joel Bateman b John Wayne Murdoch to keep death match title (thanks to Leonard Brand)

True Ten MMA Scoring System: The Results of the Scoring Experiment

Posted on by Dan Velten

We are getting close to the biggest UFC event ever to take place.  We are less than 2 days away from Ronda Rousey defending her Women’s Bantamweight championship against Holly Holm.  The UFC is now a massive company.  It generates millions of dollars, and is popular almost everywhere.  It has expanded across the globe, and has visited many countries and continents.  Yet, the sport of MMA is still using an archaic scoring system taken from boxing.  Unfortunately, this has resulted in bad decisions with the wrong fighters winning or losing.  A change is over due with the scoring, and it needs to be initiated by Dana White and the UFC or it will never happen.  

Thank you to everyone who has been following my experiment.  I have received quite a bit of feedback via email and twitter (@hendosfoodblog), and most of it was actually useful. 

In this ten part series, I tried to find out if there is a better way to score a fight.  My theory was simple.  Using more of the allotted 10 points will lead to fairer decisions.

I started out with multiple options, but eventually settled on the “True Ten” scoring system, which scores using the exact same criteria, except more of the points may be used.  Here are the possibilities:

10-10 = an even round, where a judge could go either way.  Stop!  Use this score.  We needs judges unafraid to be indecisive.  Make a fighter earn the round.

10-9 = the round where not much damage was done, but one fighter eked it out.  Some called this the 10-9.5 round using a half point system.  Needlessly complicated.

10-8 = the current 10-9, where a fighter obviously won a round.  If it’s less than obvious, do not use this score, go back to a 10-9. 

10-7 = A fighter obviously won, and did some decent damage.  We need to see a lot more of these scores. 

10-6 = the current 10-8 where a fighter dominates the round

10-5 = A dominant round and the fight possibly could have been stopped. 

It’s pretty logical.  Use more 10-10s and we will have fewer bad decisions and more draws, which is fine in my book.  Use more 10-8’s (or 7’s or 6’s) and we will have a more realistic scoring differential.

Pros: 

  • More draws which is a positive because we will have automatic rematches with stories to go with them, and fewer split decisions which no one enjoys (and many do not understand).
  • A more realistic point differential; with so many fights ending 30-27 or 29-28, it’s difficult to understand how the fight went with only a few scoring results possible.
  • Penalty points mean less; which is good because refs would not have to fear that they just snatched the fight from a fighter because he grabbed the cage.  As it stands, one penalty point can cost a fighter a match.
  • It takes some of the pressure off the judges, as they can feel free to give a 10-10 round rather than agonizing over who won the round if it’s incredibly close.
  • It’s no longer a two out of three competition.  Since hardly any judges use 10-8s as it stands, it’s basically a best of three rounds fight.  It still would be, but less so, because a fighter has a real chance of coming back in round three to win if he kept it close in the first two.

Cons:

  • The percentage of outcomes that changed was statistically insignificant.
  • More math; while simple, still could be too complicated for some judges.
  • It’s still pointlessly predicated on the number ten.  I think the “must” part of the current scoring system and my system is faulty.  Why not just give the round winner points?  The easiest way to do this would be to have a five point round potential.  Then a judge just scores a round 5-0, 4-0, 3-0, etc., which simplifies it.  Heck you could even do it with just three or two points, but I like five. 

By the Numbers…

  • 10 different MMA shows
  • 36 total fights scored using True Ten
  • 28 unanimous decisions
  • 4 split decisions
  • 4 “other” decisions: 1 majority decision, 1 split draw, 1 majority draw, 1 two-round match

Those are the stats I collected, but the only statistics that really matter are the next…

Number of differing outcomes using True Ten scoring:  2**

Percentage of differing outcomes using True Ten:  5.5%

** Both of those two differing outcomes resulted in the match being ruled a draw.

Note on scoring…

One thing that I noticed as I scored all these fights, was how the earlier rounds influenced my judging later.  Often I’d found that because the first round was close but I went with Fighter A, I then tended to find a reason to pick Fighter B in the second round.  That way, I could let the third decide it.  Another common decision I was making was that if Fighter A took the first and second pretty obviously, then if the third was close at all, I’d give it to Fighter B, because of, I don’t know, pity.  So what I’m suggesting is a rotation of judges.  No one judge can judge more than one round of a fight.  I’m sure this would be a logistical nightmare, and if studied, probably would not reveal any significant results, but I know that the earlier rounds effected my later round judging, as much as I tried to prevent it, and this is the only way I can think to make judging completely objective.

Also, why are we limiting ourselves to three judges?  Make it five.  Or let the referee have a vote.  I don’t know why we are limiting the polling size so greatly.  Let the Internet be a vote.  That could get whacky!

The results of this study were less than satisfying, because I had predicted that we would see a statistically significant amount of change.  Unfortunately, nearly every outcome using True Ten was the same as the Ten Point Must, so it would seem that this is an unnecessary scoring change for this moment.  However, beyond merely deciding the outcome of a match, the score represents the drama.  It represents a fight.  It needs to be the blind justice in the fighting world, not left up to the whims of the ghost of boxing’s past.  MMA judging needs to tell the story of the fight, and take the viewer on an adventure.  Such as a comeback in other sports is only thrilling because of the large point differential, fighting should be the same.  It should have both highs and lows.  However, most of all, it should be correct.  Do I ask too much of numbers?  Some would say yes.  Others would say that I’ve just gone mad, but damn them all, numbers are accurate!  Trust the numbers.  They do not lie.   They have no emotion.  They don’t care.  They don’t breathe… The 600 series had rubber skin. We spotted them easy, but these are new. They look human… sweat, bad breath, everything. Very hard to spot. I had to wait till he moved on you before I could zero him…

If you’ve enjoyed these columns and found any value in my urgency to change the system, I’d ask you to continue the conversation.  If you work for a commission or know someone who does, push the issue.  Talk about it with your peers, or with your family at the dinner table during Thanksgiving.  It’s that important.  We need to keep this issue alive because the scoring needs to change.  No more relics of boxing.  This is a different sport and needs a different scoring system. 

No Fate, but what we make.  #TrueTen 

******

Stats (individually by show):

Total Official Decisions:  36 (by show 4,3,3,3,4,4,4,2,6,3)

Unanimous:  28 (by show 4,2,2,3,2,3,3,2,4,3)

Split:  4 (by show 1,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0)
Other:  4 (by show 0,0,0,0,2,0,0,2,0,0,)

Different Outcomes Using True Ten:  4 (0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,0,0)

Differing outcomes result in 4 draws

True Ten Scoring System – Part 9 UFC Fight Night 76

Posted on by Dan Velten

UFC: Fight Night 76 – AKA: The All Fight Pass Prelims Show

This show has zero star power, but a lot of potential for fun fights, and since the main card is virtually the same as the undercard in terms of name value, I’m going to score all the fights. 

Changes to today’s event…

No longer will I be providing my Classic Ten score.  I’ll only be reporting the official scores and results and my True Ten score and results.  It’s too hard for me to try and score a fight in my head using two systems.  It’s not that it’s physically difficult, but it can be tricky to objectively distinguish between the two.  Remember, my system is simply the current system but using potential round scores of 10-10 all the way down to 10-5.

Questioning the Decision…

On our last event, we had one whacky decision.  Well, more like a whacky circumstance.  It occurred in the Tom Marcellino vs. Nick Newell fight.  As you may remember, Newell is the one-armed fighter, and he won the fight   This is how it was scored:

Official Results:  Unanimous decision for Nick Newell (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

My Classic Ten:  Rd1) 10-9 Newell, Rd2) 10-9 Newell, Rd 3) 10-9 Marcellino

29-28 Newell

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-9 Newell, Rd2) 10-10, Rd3) 10-9 Marcellino

Result:  29-29 Draw

Further Analysis:  At the end of the second round, instead of the 10-second blocks being clacked, the timekeeper clanged the bell.  This occurred just as Marcellino knocked down Newell and could have possibly finished.  He didn’t because the ref stopped the round.  During the confusion, the ref just decided that it was an error, and we’re moving on to round three.  Upon the reading of the decision, Marcellino was pissed, and rightfully so.  I think he could have a case if he protested, but he probably won’t.  This was one of those fights that any score was possible as the first and the third were clear, but the second was a coin toss.  Why not score it a draw? 

One with the show…

145: Darren Elkins vs. Robert Whiteford

Official Results:  Elkins by Unanimous Decision

Judges:  30-27, 30-27, 30-27

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-9 Elkins, Rd2) 10-8 Elkins, Rd 3) 10-6 Elkins

Results:  30-23

Analysis:  Easy pick here, but another example of a round that should have been a 10-8.  The third round was dominated by Elkins, which included securing a rear naked choke with 5 seconds left but Whiteford just did not tap.

185: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Scott Askham

Official Result:  Jotko by Split Decision

Judges:  29-28 Jotko, 29-28 Askham, 29-28 Jotko

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-10 Rd2) 10-10, Rd3) 10-9 Jotko

Result:  30-29 Jotko

Analysis:  Don’t be fooled by blood.  Jotko maybe won the first round but barely because he was really close to being finished by that arm bar, which is why I gave it a 10-10.  I don’t think Askham won a round, but I guess I’m wrong. 

115: Aisling Daly vs. Ericka Almeida

Official Result:  Aisling Daly by Unanimous Decision

Judges:  30-27, 29-27, 29-28

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-8 Daly, Rd2) 10-9 Daly, Rd3) 10-6

Official Result:  30-23 Daly

Analysis:  I loved this fight!  Baby face fire by Daly was great in the third.  Only one judge gave it a 10-8 third, which I thought it pretty clearly was as well.  Two judges also gave Almeida the second, so Daly’s corner was right telling her she had to win the third.  By the way, you should always tell your fighter that they need to win the third. 

155: Stevie Ray vs. Mickael Lebout

Official Result:  Stevie Ray by Unanimous Decision

Judges:  29-28, 30-27, 30-27

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-8 Ray, Rd2) 10-8 Ray, Rd3) 10-9 Ray

Result:  30-25 Ray

Analysis:  Clear winner in this one.  The third round was closer but I don’t think I’d have given it to Lebout like one judge. 

Main Card…

A strong showing by my Guam buddy Jon Delos Reyes – Great battle, but an unlucky outcome tonight.

170: Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby

Official Result:  Majority Draw

Judges: 29-28 Till, 28-28, 28-28

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-8 Till, Rd2) 10-8 Till, Rd3) 10-6 Dalby

Result:  26-26 Draw

Analysis:  Well, this was great a call.  I figured it was going to be a unanimous decision for Till and I’d write my usual rant about not giving 10-8s, but two of these judges showed some guts because clearly the last round was a 10-8 for Dalby.  It could have been stopped at least one time.  Till got very lucky here. 

155: Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi

Official Result:  Norman Parke by Unanimous Decision

Judges:  30-27, 30-27, 30-27

True Ten:  Rd1) 10-8 Parke, Rd2) 10-8 Parke, Rd3) 10-9 Parke

Result:  30-25

Analysis:  Nothing to report. 

Overall Analysis

This ended up being a good show, with a pretty dang good main event.  The judging seems to be getting better with each passing show, and by better I mean judges are using more 10-8s.  That’s a step in the right direction.  Is it this column that is leaving an impression?  My theory is yes.