Bellator NYC Observer Panel picks: Chael vs. Wanderlei; Fedor vs. Mitrione

It’s the biggest show in the history of Bellator MMA tonight as they return to PPV with Bellator NYC. There are three world title fights on the card, but the show is headlined by a grudge match years in the making with Chael Sonnen taking on Wanderlei Silva in the promotional debut for the latter fighter.

Also making their Bellator debut is former Pride legend and the one-time top heavyweight in the world Fedor Emelianenko. He will step into the cage with Matt Mitrione, looking for his third straight win since joining Bellator.

The most high profile title fight will actually headline the prelims on Spike, called Bellator 180, as light heavyweight champion Phil Davis faces the debuting Ryan Bader. 

On the PPV main card, there are two title fights. Lightweight champion Michael Chandler, who in many ways is the face of the company, defends against little known but unbeaten Brent Primus while recent UFC free agent Lorenz Larkin challenges champion Douglas Lima for his welterweight belt.

If you’re new here, our panel picks are listed below and listed alongside the fighter’s names are their worldwide FightMatrix rankings, as well as BestFightOdds.com betting odds. The panelist’s 2017 records is in parentheses, and we also have panel consensus picks as well as a line where we show how the betting favorites did:

  • John Pollock (30-13; .698) — Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
  • Dave Meltzer (30-13; .684) — Wrestling Observer publisher
  • Consensus Picks (28-13; .683)
  • Favorites (29-14; .674)
  • Mike Sawyer (28-15; .651) — Tough Talk MMA publisher
  • David Bixenspan (28-15; .651) – Deadspin pro wrestling columnist; Between the Sheets podcast host
  • Steve Juon (27-16; .628) — MMA Mania writer, Angry Marks publisher
  • Josh Nason (26-17; .605) — Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out, WrestlingObserver.com assistant editor
  • Tom Lawlor (3-2; .600) – Co-host Filthy Four Daily; pro wrestling undercard fighter; UFC enhancement talent currently suspended due to wellness violation
  • Mike Sempervive (25-18; .581) — Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
  • Ryan Frederick (23-20; .535) — WrestlingObserver.com UFC writer
  • Paul Fontaine (22-21; .512) — MMADraws.com publisher, WrestlingObserver.com writer
  • Front Row Brian (20-23; .465) — MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, podcast host

Chael Sonnen (28-15-1) vs Wanderlei Silva (35-12-1)
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

This fight was originally scheduled to happen in UFC in 2013, but both men had PED issues at that time and the fight never took place despite both guys building up the grudge match as TUF Brazil coaches.

Sonnen has already fought in Bellator, losing to Tito Ortiz earlier this year while “The Axe Murderer” will be fighting for the first time in Bellator. Both guys have been relatively quiet leading into this one and it’s hard to say where either guy goes from here, no matter what the result.

  • Sonnen #40; -149 betting favorite: Lawlor, FRB, Frederick, Sempervive, Fontaine, Nason, Bix
  • Silva NR; +155 betting underdog: Sawyer, Juon, Pollock, Meltzer

> Fedor Emelianenko (36-4) vs Matt Mitrione (11-5)
HEAVYWEIGHTS

This one was originally set to go down in February in San Jose, but Mitrione had to pull out that night due to kidney stones while Fedor elected to wait until Mitrione was healthy enough to compete rather than take on another opponent.

Fedor is on a five-fight win streak with no blemishes on his record since losing to Dan Henderson in Strikeforce back in 2011. However, he was retired for a few years and one of the wins on his comeback, Fabio Maldonado in EFN, was questionable at best. Mitrione has knocked out both of his Bellator opponents so far and a third KO in this one would make him the leading contender for the vacant heavyweight title.

  • Fedor #29; +110 betting underdog: FRB, Sawyer, Meltzer
  • Mitrione #21; -120 betting favorite: Lawlor, Frederick, Juon, Sempervive, Pollock, Fontaine, Bix, Nason

> Bellator Lightweight Champion Michael Chandler (16-3) vs Brent Primus (7-0)

Chandler has looked great ever since capturing the title vacated by Will Brooks. He knocked out Patricky Pitbull in the first round to win the belt and then won a decision over former UFC champion Benson Henderson in his first title defense. Primus will fight on a Bellator main card for only the second time in his career but he does have five stoppage wins in his young career, including each of his first three Bellator fights. Neither the oddsmakers or our panel is giving him much of a chance of escaping MSG with his perfect record intact.

  • Chandler #6; -714 betting favorite: Lawlor, FRB, Sawyer, Frederick, Juon, Sempervive, Pollock, Fontaine, Bix, Nason, Meltzer

> Bellator Welterweight Champion Douglas Lima (28-6) vs Lorenz Larkin (18-5)

Lima is a 2-time champion in Bellator, having won a tournament for the vacant title in 2015, later losing it to Andrey Koreshkov, and then gaining it back with a 3rd round KO last November. He’s a Bellator mainstay as this will be his 14th trip into their cage. Larkin fights for the first time in Bellator but he has worked for Scott Coker in the past. He started his career in Strikeforce, running up an impressive record there before moving over to UFC when that promotion was shut down. He won his last two fights in UFC and would’ve won five in a row if not for a split decision loss to Albert Tumenov.

Another ex-UFC vet in Rory McDonald awaits the winner.

  • Lima #15; +170 betting underdog: Juon, Sempervive
  • Larkin #10; -185 betting favorite: Lawlor, FRB, Sawyer, Frederick, Pollock, Fontaine, Bix, Nason, Meltzer

> Bellator Light Heavyweight Champion Phil Davis (17-3) vs Ryan Bader (22-5)

This will be the first title defence for the veteran Davis, who won the title with a dominant performance over Liam McGeary last November. He has won all four of his fights in Bellator, including a one-night tournament in September 2015 which earned him the title shot.

Bader was long considered the top UFC 205-pound fighter to not receive a title shot. Like Larkin, he won his last two UFC fights and seven of his last eight fights there with the only loss being a first round KO at the hands of Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Bader beat Davis in January 2015 in what was a very controversial decision. The winner here will likely defend against King Mo next.

  • Davis #3; -115 betting favorite: Sawyer, Juon, Sempervive, Fontaine, Nason, Meltzer
  • Bader #5; +110 betting underdog: Lawlor, FRB, Frederick, Pollock, Bix

**********

Other notable fights on the card:

> Aaron Pico (pro debut) vs Zach Freeman (8-2)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

  • Pico NR; no betting odds for this fight
  • Freeman #506

> James Gallagher (6-0) vs Chinzo Machida (5-2)
FEATHERWEIGHTS

  • Gallagher #472; -200 betting favorite
  • Machida NR; +198 betting underdog

> Neiman Gracie (5-0) vs Dave Marfone (5-2)
WELTERWEIGHTS

  • Gracie #212; -833 betting favorite
  • Marfone NR; +702 betting underdog

> Ryan Couture (10-5) vs Haim Gozali (7-3)

WELTERWEIGHTS

  • Couture #253; -525 betting favorite
  • Gozali NR; +530 betting underdog

Action begins with the Spike.com prelims at 6:00 PM EST and moves over to Spike at 8 PM EST. The main card airs on PPV at 10 PM EST, and will be covered here.

UFC Fight Night 106 panel picks: Vitor Belfort and Shogun Rua keep on keepin’ on

UFC returns to Fox Sports One Saturday with a fairly stacked show from Fortaleza, Brazil, headlined by former UFC titleholder Vitor Belfort taking on one-time welterweight Kelvin Gastelum.

The latter is unbeaten at 185 in the UFC, including a TUF tourney win at that weight several years ago.

Near the top of the card, former UFC light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua returns to battle journeyman Gian Villante while we get a must-see fight between two top 10 lightweight contenders in Edson Barboza and Beneil Dariush.

The show also features two flyweights looking to get a title shot (Jussier Formiga vs. Ray Borg) while former title challenger Bethe Correia fights on her home soil against Marion Reneau to round out the main card.

If you’re new here, our panel picks are listed below and listed alongside the fighter’s names are their worldwide FightMatrix rankings, as well as BestFightOdds.com betting odds. The panelist’s 2017 records is in parentheses, and we also have panel consensus picks as well as a line where we show how the betting favorites did:

  • Dave Meltzer (15-4; .789) — Wrestling Observer publisher
  • David Bixenspan (14-5; .737) — MMANews.com editor, Sherdog.com contributor, podcast host
  • Consensus Picks (14-5; .737)
  • Favorites (13-6; .684)
  • Mike Sempervive (13-6; .684) — Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
  • John Pollock (13-6; .684) — Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
  • Mike Sawyer (12-7; .632) — Tough Talk MMA publisher
  • Steve Juon (12-7; .632) — MMA Mania writer, Angry Marks publisher
  • Ryan Frederick (10-9; .526) — WrestlingObserver.com UFC writer
  • Paul Fontaine (9-10; .474) — MMADraws.com publisher, WrestlingObserver.com writer
  • Josh Nason (9-10; .474) — Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out, WrestlingObserver.com assistant editor
  • Front Row Brian (9-10; .474) — MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, podcast host

> Vitor Belfort (25-13) vs Kelvin Gastelum (14-2)
MIDDLEWEIGHTS

The 39-year-old Belfort is a first ballot HOF’er and former two-time UFC champion, but is looking for his first win since 2015 after back-to-back losses to Jacare Souza and Gegard Mousasi. 

Standing across the cage will be a man 14 years his junior in Gastelum. He has struggled with weight-cutting issues at 170 lbs but since moving to middleweight, he’s looked great. He finished the very tough Tim Kennedy last time out, sending him into retirement. After hitting 10-0, he’s 3-2 in his last five with a two-fight win streak.

Belfort’s UFC title opportunites are far behind him, but with a win here, Gastelum could enter the conversation in what is becoming a very crowded group at the top of the middleweight division. At the very least, he would remain the “interesting fight” category.

  • Belfort (#9; +336 betting underdog): Fontaine
  • Gastelum (#10; -359 betting favorite) FRB, Juon, Frederick, Sempervive, Sawyer, Pollock, Nason, Bix, Meltzer

> Shogun Rua (24-10) vs Gian Villante (15-7)
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Another former UFC champion, Rua has a mediocre 8-8 UFC record but has faced only the top level of competition during his run in the Octagon. Even for people calling for his retirement the past few years, he is on a two-fight win streak for the first time since 2009 as he makes one final run in his legendary career.

His opponent is also on a good run, having won four of his last six. This will be the biggest fight of his career. His last three wins have all come by KO, something Rua will have to watch for given that his last two defeats came via T/KO.

  • Rua (#8; -137 betting favorite): FRB, Juon, Frederick, Sempervive, Sawyer, Fontaine, Pollock, Nason, Bix, Meltzer

> Edson Barboza (18-4) vs Beneil Dariush (14-2)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

Many experts are pointing to this as the fight to watch on this show. The 31-year-old Barboza beat former champions in each of his last two fights, scoring wins over both Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez in 2016, and is 3-2 in his last five.

Dariush has lost just one of his last eight fights and scored an impressive win over top prospect Rashid Magomedov in November after a June KO over rising division foe James Vick.

Both of these two are dynamic fighters and this has “fight of the night” written all over it.

  • Barboza (#5; -142 betting favorite): Juon, Frederick, Sempervive, Sawyer, Fontaine, Pollock, Nason, Meltzer
  • Dariush (#9; +150 betting underdog): FRB, Bix

> Jussier Formiga (19-4) vs Ray Borg (10-2)
FLYWEIGHTS

If Barboza vs. Dariush doesn’t do it for you, this is the most relevant in terms of title contention of any fight on the show with two top flyweights vying to be the next in line to dethrone King Demetrious.

Formiga’s career goes all the way back to the WEC days. He’s won 4 of his last 5 fights, including a win over the next challenger to DJ in Wilson Reis. The 31-year-old is coming off a September decison win over Dustin Ortiz, rebounding from a split decision loss to title contender Henry Cejudo.

Borg has also won four of five and is just 23 years old. He beat Louis Smolka last time out, which was the biggest win of his career.  

  • Formiga (#5; +105 betting underdog): FRB, Juon, Frederick, Sempervive, Fontaine, Pollock, Nason, Bix, Meltzer
  • Borg (#11; -110 betting favorite): Sawyer

> Bethe Correia (10-2) vs Marion Reneau (7-3)
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS

The 33-year-old Correia is most famous for her feud with Ronda Rousey’s “Four Horsewomen”, which culminated with a title challenge defeat to Rousey at UFC 190 in Brazil. The “Pitbull” returns to her native country to compete for the first time since that defeat and is 1-1 in her last two.

Reneau is 39 years, but started lates so is not that old in “fighting years”. Her 3rd round KO win over Milana Dudieva in November snapped a two-fight losing streak and may have saved her job. A win here could put her in the top 10.

  • Correia (#11; +105 betting underdog): FRB; Juon, Sempervive, Fontaine
  • Reneau (#21; -112 betting favorite): Frederick, Sawyer, Pollock, Nason, Bix, Meltzer

**********

The rest of the card:

> Tim Means (26-7-1) vs Alex Oliveira (16-4-1)
WELTERWEIGHTS

  • Means #23; -181 betting favorite
  • Oliveira #25; +205 betting underdog

> Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) vs Kevin Lee (14-2)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

  • Trinaldo #13; +153 betting underdog
  • Lee #20; -149 betting favorite

> Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) vs Davi Ramos (6-1)
WELTERWEIGHTS

  • Moraes #42; -211 betting favorite
  • Ramos #195 at lightweight; +215 betting underdog

> Joe Soto (17-5) vs Rani Yahya (23-8)
BANTAMWEIGHTS

  • Soto #38; +191 betting underdog
  • Yahya #14; -175 betting favorite

> Josh Burkman (28-14) vs Michel Prazeres (21-2)
LIGHTWEIGHTS

  • Burkman #94 at welterweight; -226 betting favorite
  • Prazeres #32; +241 betting underdog

> Rony Jason (14-6) vs Jeremy Kennedy (9-0)
FEATHERWEIGHTS

  • Jason #81; -102 betting underdog
  • Kennedy #123 at lightweight; -105 betting favorite

> Garreth McLellan (13-5) vs Paulo Henrique Costa (8-0)
MIDDLEWEIGHTS

  • McLellan #142; +252 betting underdog
  • Costa #96; -250 betting favorite

Action begins with the Fight Pass prelims at 7 PM EST and moves over to FS 1 at 8 PM EST. The main card continues on FS 1 at 10 PM EST, covered by our Ryan Frederick.