Tag: Backlash Predictions

Tonight’s WWE Backlash in St. Louis, Missouri, (Peacock in the U.S. & Netflix outside the U.S.) will be a highly predictable event with some of the longest odds in wrestling history, according to the oddsmakers.

Unsurprisingly, one of the heavy favorites is WWE Champion John Cena who has been given a 98% chance of retaining against Randy Orton. The other two percent is likely if Cena gets injured mid-match and they have to call an audible. I don’t think too many people believe WWE’s plan was for Cena to beat Rhodes and then lose it in his first defense, still many months away from his final appearance.

But the show is all built around the match, the second-ever last-ever bout between the two, and having it take place in Orton’s hometown.

Cena is not the only heavy favorite at Backlash, however. New United States Champion Jacob Fatu has also been given a 98% chance of retaining his title on Saturday in a fatal four-way match against LA Knight, Drew McIntyre, and Damian Priest. Fatu will likely win, but I don’t know how Las Vegas has decided him not retaining would be amongst the biggest upsets in wrestling history.

Becky Lynch, Dominik Mysterio, and Gunther are all big favorites as well. Below are previews and predictions for each match at WWE Backlash 2025.

WWE Champion John Cena defends against Randy Orton

Cena heads into this one as a whopping -5000 favorite — often the unofficial cap for wrestling odds, although not always.

To put this into perspective, Mike Tyson went into his fight with James “Buster” Douglas a -4200 favorite, and Ronda Rousey went into her fight with Holly Holm a -2000 favorite. So if Cena does tear a muscle mid-match, this will be among the biggest upset in combat sports history, only not really because it’s wrestling, but you get my point.

The only wrestling matches I can find that ever went over -5000 odds were some of the Undertaker’s WrestleMania matches during the streak and Rousey’s debut tag match at WrestleMania 34. A famous example of why betting on wrestling is not advised took place in 2014 when a man in the UK bet his life savings on the Undertaker to beat Brock Lesnar and lost £35,000.

Of course, everyone’s confidence in Cena comes from his storyline requiring him to retain the title until just before he’s about to retire. Each chapter of the story is going to end the same way, but it won’t necessarily take the same journey to get there. The story Cena and Orton tell in the match should be interesting with Orton as the babyface and Cena the heel, leading to a unique version of a match we’ve seen a billion times before.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if an angle is tacked onto the end to build to Cena’s next defense, although they might save that for TV.

Prediction: Cena retains

WWE Women’s Intercontinental Champion Lyra Valkyria defends against Becky Lynch

Lynch is currently listed as a -400 favorite to defeat Valkyria which I think is a pretty safe bet.

Valkyria defeated Lynch the last time they had a singles match which was for the NXT title at Halloween Havoc 2023. So, Lynch winning is the more likely move to keep the story moving forward with Valkyria winning it back in the eventual blowoff match.

Evidently, it was Lynch’s decision to turn heel, probably because she wants to work against a babyface Valkyria. It was also her decision to turn heel immediately after returning in 2021 for her run as “Big Time Becks.” Why does Lynch want to be a bad guy so much? Lynch wants to be a heel and Charlotte Flair wants to be a babyface, but it’s going to be a tall order to sell the fans on either of those.

Lynch will use dirty, underhanded tactics to defeat Valkyria and become the new Women’s Intercontinental Champion.

Prediction: Lynch wins the Intercontinental title

WWE United States Champion Jacob Fatu defends against LA Knight, Drew McIntyre and Damian Priest in a four-way match

There are a bunch of reasons why Fatu is most likely going to retain the title at Backlash and is a heavy favorite to do so:

Gigantic rising star
Everybody likes him
Just won the title at WrestleMania 41
Everyone else in the match has issues with each other
Winning the title doesn’t really do much for Priest, McIntyre or Knight at this point
He’s a werewolf

I just can’t get behind him being -5000 in a four-way match though. To the best of what I can find, there has never been this heavy of a favorite in a multi-person match.

Maybe something happens between him and Solo Sikoa that leads to him not retaining. Who knows?

If you said Fatu was a -2000 favorite, that would make sense. That’s still considered “a lock” for him to win. But saying that him not winning this match would be one of the largest upsets in wrestling history up there with Lesnar defeating Undertaker at WrestleMania 30 seems a little bizarre.

Even if I received an email from Triple H that said, “Off the record: Jacob Fatu is winning at Backlash. If this information is incorrect, I will agree to speak positively about AEW for a year,” I still wouldn’t put Fatu as a -5000 favorite. Maybe like -3000 if I got that email, but no more than that.

Anyway, after all that, I’m still picking Fatu to win and retain.

Prediction: Fatu retains in what was, according to oddsmakers, one of the most predictable outcomes in wrestling history

Gunther vs. Pat McAfee

There is no reason for this to be anything other than a squash match.

Gunther is a -1000 favorite and the most likely reason for this bout happening is that it’s a chance for the company to rehab him after he lost clean to Jey Uso at WrestleMania 41. There’s also the possibility that Gunther continues his attack after the bell which could set up his next rivalry, possibly with Goldberg, depending on whether he’s cleared.

McAfee will get in a little bit of offense, and some hope spots, but will walk away with a heavily chopped chest in defeat and then maybe take a vacation so Corey Graves can come back to Raw.

Prediction: Gunther

WWE Intercontinental Champion Dominik Mysterio defends against Penta

Dominik is listed as a -900 favorite to defeat Penta at Backlash.

He’s likely a heavy favorite because he just won the title and fans like him, or at least enjoy not liking him. His title win at WrestleMania felt almost like a thank you from WWE to him. Almost a “Hey, Rhea Ripley and Liv Morgan are bigger stars now than they were before they worked with you” kind of acknowledgment.

WWE doesn’t hesitate to beat Penta even though it appears they have him slotted as a star in the making. But, I’m going to go against the grain on this one and pick the underdog to score a huge upset. Admittedly, I’m partly doing this because I feel obligated to pick at least one underdog per show. Well, this is the one I’m picking.

I think Penta wins fairly clean, but I also think Finn Balor does something accidentally to cost his Judgment Day stablemate the title.

Prediction: Penta wins the title

Our live coverage kicks off at 5 PM Eastern with the pre-show with the main card kicking off at 7 PM Eastern.

WWE Backlash takes place this Saturday from Lyon, France, and should continue the company’s string of hot shows out of international markets.

Backlash in Puerto Rico last year had a fun crowd that created a unique atmosphere. It was pretty much the Puerto Rican WrestleMania and the crowd responded to it as such. The fans in Lyon might not be quite as raucous, but they will still be loud enough to help the show feel important.

The Triple H-era of WWE sure has shortened the amount of matches on PLEs as just five are confirmed for this show. This means everything should get a lot of time, notably the main event between Cody Rhodes and AJ Styles. Those two will be given enough room to do something memorable.

Below are previews and predictions for all five matches currently scheduled for Saturday’s show (1 PM Eastern on Peacock/WWE Network).

All odds are from Betonline as of Thursday, May 2nd.

Undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes defends against AJ Styles

The result here is not in question as Rhodes will defeat Styles in what should be an excellent match. The oddsmakers have him as a -4000 favorite and it’s hard to disagree with that.

In the lead-up to WrestleMania 40, Styles said in an interview that his career was getting close to the end and that he doesn’t want to embarrass himself as he gets older. However, at 46, he has shown no signs that his ability is in decline. There is a reason he was selected as Rhodes’ first challenger. He’s a guy that WWE knows can give Rhodes a solid bell-to-bell match to close a fun show in front of what will be a hot crowd.

I thought it was interesting that both Styles and Rhodes were essentially babyfaces in the contract signing recently with Styles speaking about how much he loved Rhodes’ father. Styles has been a heel since both returning from injury and his Mania program with LA Knight, so it was a little surprising to see such a respectful contract signing. I almost wonder if his character is luring Rhodes into thinking it will be a fair fight, only for Styles to do something dastardly in an attempt to win.

Rhodes will still win even if he does, but it might extend their program through the next PLE.

Prediction: Rhodes retains

WWE World Heavyweight Champion Damian Priest defends against Jey Uso

Similar to the WWE Championship match, there is little doubt as to who is going to win this one as Priest is also listed as a -4000 favorite to win and retain.

As much as Priest winning is a slam dunk, I don’t think it’s as big a lock as Rhodes beating Styles. Uso is very popular and sells a lot of merchandise, so I don’t think putting the title on him is out of the question. It just feels too soon for Priest to lose it.

The other factor that I think gives Uso a chance, albeit a small one, is all the dissension going on within Judgment Day. If that drama spills out to the ring area, there’s a chance we could see a new champion. In all likelihood, however, Priest will retain and we will continue getting little bits of teased tension from the group, but it won’t implode for a few months still.

Prediction: Priest retains

WWE Women’s Champion Bayley defends against Tiffany Stratton and Naomi in a triple-threat match

It’s not quite “Tiffy Time” on the main roster yet, but it won’t be long. Stratton will eventually become a perennial champion and top star for WWE, but her ascension to the very “Tiffy Top” won’t come as soon as Saturday.

Bayley is listed as a -1500 favorite, which goes against everything we’ve been taught about a champion’s mathematical chances in triple-threat matches like this. All the same, it feels pretty certain that she walks out of Backlash as the champion.

Similar to Rhodes and Priest, who also just won their titles at WrestleMania, it doesn’t seem like the right time to take the title off Bayley. In all likelihood, either Stratton or Naomi will have the match won, the other will cost them the victory, they will move into a program with each other, and Bayley will move on to a new challenger.

Stratton’s rise to the pinnacle will continue, but I don’t know if she’s winning the title until, at least, WrestleMania 41.

Prediction: Bayley retains

WWE Women’s Tag Team Champions The Kabuki Warriors (Asuka & Kairi Sane) defend against Jade Cargill & Bianca Belair

The one possible, and perhaps even likely, title change to happen at Backlash is here. It’s not a lock, but it will probably happen as Cargill & Belair are listed as -1500 favorites to win the belts.

There is only one scenario I can think of where the Kabuki Warriors retain and that’s if Cargill turns heel on Belair or vice versa. I tend to see Belair as a Ricky Steamboat/Rey Mysterio type where she is just such a strong babyface that she never turns heel, though.

Cargill as a dominant heel who starts her WWE run by taking out a perennial champion/contender like Belair is more likely at some point. In all likelihood, any turn would happen after a run with the tag titles together first which starts Saturday.

Prediction: Cargill & Belair win the titles

Randy Orton & Kevin Owens vs. The Bloodline’s Solo Sikoa & Tama Tonga

This match has the closest betting odds of any on the show. However, that doesn’t mean the result is in question as Tonga & Sikoa will all but assuredly get the win.

Owens will take the pin, but I’m not sure if it’ll be Sikoa or Tonga who get the win for their team. On one hand, it’s Tonga’s debut so making him look strong should be a priority but it’s Sikoa’s first match since he has sort of asserted himself as the interim Tribal Chief, so they’ll want him to look strong, too.

Jacob Fatu’s WWE debut looms in the background of this angle. If WWE wants to keep it secret, they could just have him hide out in the traboules or hidden passageways Lyon is known for.

While that debut could happen here, something tells me it’s more likely for an episode of SmackDown at some point in the next few weeks. Regardless, the idea is to build this Roman-less version of Bloodline for the next few months until he returns. Starting them off with a win here seems essential.

Prediction: Solo Sikoa & Tama Tonga